Wrap Up

Strategy Forum on Livestock TraceabilityKansas City, MOSept 25-26, 2018

Nevil Speer, PhD, MBABowling Green, KY

Traceability Feasibility StudyNecessary Tenets

• Industry driven

• Managed by entity(s) serving both public and private interests

• Maintains data privacy

• Equitable to all industry sectors

• Compatible with common industry practices

• Operates at speed of commerce

• Credible in domestic AND int’l markets

Comprehensive Feasibility Study: U.S. Beef Cattle Identification and Traceability SystemsEvaluation of Opportunities, Obstacles and 

Incentives Across the U.S. Beef Industry Value Chain

ADT Program Review and Proposed Directions

Possibly the most significant change in stakeholder opinion since the establishment of the current ADT framework in 2013 is an increase in support for EID for cattle.

LMIC Annual Cow Cost ($/head)

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

LMIC Annual Cow Cost ($/head)

Beef Industry Long Range Plan:2016-2020

“Secure the broad adoption of individual animal I.D. traceability system(s) across

the beef community…”

NBQA Top Quality Challenges

1991 1995 2000 2005 2011 2016

External fat Overall uniformity

Overall uniformity

Traceability Food safety Food safety

Seam fat Overall palatability

Carcass weights

Overall uniformity

Eating satisfaction

Eating satisfaction

Overall palatability

Marbling Tenderness Instrument grading

How and where cattle were raised

Lean, fat and bone

Tenderness Tenderness Marbling Market signals Lean, fat, bone

Weight and size

Overall cutability

External and seam fat

Reduced quality due to

implants

Segmentation Weight and size

How and where cattle were raised

Marbling Cut weights External fat Carcass weights

Cattle genetics

Visual Characterist

ics

Retail All-Fresh Beef Demand Index Adapted From: LMIC (sourced from USDA:ERS and USDA:AMS)

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Ret

ail A

ll-Fr

esh

Bee

f D

eman

d In

dex

Traceability: “It’s what the consumer wants…and that’s how we increase beef demand.” John Gerber, Tyson Foods, CAB Feeding Quality Forum, 8/28/18

Domestic vs. Export Market

82.0

7

83.5

8

79.9

0

84.7

0

82.0

0

72.5

1 81.1

7 96.3

9

103.

97

104.

74

128.

74

124.

71

98.8

0

97.0

7

94.5

42.33 4.05

6.04 7.

88

10.7

7

10.6

7

14.1

4

18.4

2

18.8

1

21.2

3

25.6

2

22.9

5

21.7

9

24.0

4

26.0

3

$50

$70

$90

$110

$130

$150

Fed

Cat

tle ($

/cw

t) Export PremiumFed Market (no exports)

Critical Mass

Distribution of Cow/Calf Producer Attitudes Beef Industry Traceability (% Respondents)

Adapted from World Perspectives (2018)

15

65

10

10

Wholesale Support

Cautious Support

Resignation to theInevitable

Firm Opposition

Communication / Education

Be Proactive: Shift Happens!

“The most dangerous situations arise when the threat is ambiguous. This leads managers to ignore or discount the risk and take a wait‐and‐see attitude. Such an approach can be catastrophic.”

Roberto, Bohmer and Edmonson, “Facing Ambiguous Threats”, Harvard Business Review, November, 2006 

• Make Supply Management A       Top Priority

• Don’t Wait For A Crisis