spirakis open data and evolutionary games
DESCRIPTION
Prof. Spirakis Paul G. (Director of Computer Technology Institute and Press "Diophantus", Steering Committee OKFN Greece). Open Data and Evolutionary GamesTRANSCRIPT
OPEN DATA AND
EVOLUTIONARY GAME
THEORY
Paul G. Spirakis
Computer Technology Institute & Press
“DIOPHANTUS”
Thessaloniki, April 6, 2012
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COMPLEXITY
• Complex Social, Biological and Socio-Technical Systems
• Must understand them “as a whole” (interactions, Networks)
• How to control? Improve?
• We need
(a) Good Models
(b) Data!
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• To understand Complex Systems it is essential to explore large real datasets with ground-truth information about structure and events.
(MULTIPLEX)
How available are such datasets?
Exist, but
• Fragmented (per Government, Professional
Society etc)
• Not free
• Not clean
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TWO EXAMPLES FROM
(EVOLUTIONARY) GAME THEORY
• Lotka-Volterra
(where it all started)
• Reporting A Crime
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I. Lotka-Volterra equations
• After World War I, the amount of predatory fish in the Adriatic was found to be considerably higher than in the years before.
• Hostility between Austria – Italy had disrupted fishery.
• Why was this more favourable to predators than to their prey?
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a, b, c, d >0
IV F
I
II III
x
y F = (𝑥 , 𝑦 )
𝑥 = 𝑐
𝑑
𝑦 = a𝑏
Phase portrait
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II. Reporting a Crime
A crime is observed by n people.
Each observer would like the police to be informed but prefers that someone else phone-calls.
Each person attaches v to police being informed v>0.
Bears cost c > 0 if she calls (v>>c)
Actions per player = {Call, Don’t Call}
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Social Psychology
“38 people witnessed the brutal number of Catherine Genovese over ½ hour un NYC in March 1964.
No one significantly responded to her screams for help.
No one even called the police!”
Indifference?
Apathy?
Audience inhibition?
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An n players game
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“In an equilibrium, each person must be
indifferent between intervening and
not intervening”
(People are expected – utility maximizers)
This “dogma” of Game Theory is verified by Data.
Is it?
Not many such data are free.
Usually police collects them.
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• So, raw, accurate, meaningful data are crucial.
But how can one get access?
• Governments collect data.
• In France, UK and Netherland they are available to the public via the Web.
• In other EU Members they are not.
This may soon change!
(EU’s Open Data Initiative)
Neelie Kroes the EU digital agenda commissioner.
Modelling Ethnic Conflict
(March 2012)
• New England Complex Systems Institute
(NESCI)
data + model
Data from Switzerland
Note: Switzerland has a history of Social Stability
and economic prosperity.
however
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Data + Model “reveal”:
• One Swiss area with increased violence (northwest
region) where the Jura mountains form a weak
boundary between French and German speaking
communities.
(Violence data during 1970’s released now in detail)
Model’s conclusion: Stability among ethnic groups
does not depend on integrated co-existence but on
well-defined topographical and political boundaries
separating the different groups!
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NESCI model
“it is possible to mitigate ethnic conflict using
within-country borders that provide local
autonomy”!
Is this true?
Records on recent ethnic violence e.g in Africa,
Serbia, parts of the East, are not open.
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In contrast
(CACM, March 2012)
(same issue)
“to function as a team, robots must learn to negotiate
decision-making processes … will they ever learn to
get along?”
(The Social Life of Robots)
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So, we need open data
[Kroes] “Taxpayers have already paid for info
collected … the least we can do is to give it back
to those who want to use it in new ways, that
help people and create jobs and growth”.
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Thank you !!