spring time for housing - arizona state university · greater phoenix employment has increased...
TRANSCRIPT
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Spring Time for Housing
Arizona State University
December 2nd
, 2015
Presented By:
Elliott D. Pollack
CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 1
IN PHOENIX
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The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Employment GrowthFrom Bottom of Recession (Start of Recovery)
Greater Phoenix Employment, Seasonally AdjustedSource: BLS
4
Recession
Emp.
Trough
61 mos.
Later % Growth
1974-1975 Dec-74 Jan-80 42.3%
1981-1982 Sep-82 Oct-97 41.5%
1991 Aug-91 Sep-96 32.3%
2001 Dec-01 Jan-07 20.4%
2007-2009 Sep-10 Oct-15 13.9%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Population Growth after RecessionsGreater Phoenix
Source: ADOA
5
Start of
Recovery Population
Population
9 years later % Growth
1975 1,377,700 1,606,300 16.6%
1981 1,658,988 2,013,320 21.4%
1991 2,301,825 2,784,725 21.0%
2001 3,360,062 3,968,805 18.1%
2009 4,087,390 4,404,888 5.2%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Year Rank # MSA’s
2004 3 25
2005 1 26
2006 1 27
2007 10 29
2008 25 29
2009 23 24
2010 23 23
2011 14 25
2012 11 28
2013 9 28
2014 16 31
2015* 14 32
Year Rank # MSA’s
1992 4 19
1993 2 19
1994 1 19
1995 1 20
1996 1 21
1997 2 22
1998 1 23
1999 3 24
2000 7 25
2001 7 26
2002 5 25
2003 3 25
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Employment Growth(Ranking among all metro areas greater than 1,000,000)
Source: Arizona State University, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
*YTD October 2015 vs. YTD October 2014 6
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix–
Greater Phoenix has had a significant
recovery in both absolute and relative
terms.
It is only when we compare ourselves to
previous Arizona recoveries that we look so
bad.
7
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Unemployment Rate
1990 – 2015* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Recession Periods
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
*Data through September 2015. 8
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Since the Recovery
Greater Phoenix employment has
increased 13.8%.
By Comparison, for the first 61
months of the previous two
recoveries, Greater Phoenix grew
32.3% and 20.4%, respectively.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Data through October 2015 9
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Since the Recovery the
Greater Phoenix population has
increased by 5.2%.
By Comparison, for the first 5 years
of the previous two recoveries,
Greater Phoenix population
increased by 21.0% and 18.1%,
respectively.
Source: Arizona Department of
Administration
10
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Less need for migrants
(international and national)
chasing jobs.
12
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Fewer people mean fewer houses
& less commercial construction.
13
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The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 15
MEDIOCRE
Unexceptional
Run-of-the-mill
Second rate
Commonplace
Middling
Sub-par
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The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Single Family Permits
Greater Phoenix 1976–2017*Source: RL Brown & Elliott D. Pollack & company
27.3%
101.1%
29.5%
-34.7%-39.0%
-7.3%
9.2%
67.3%
-6.8%
24.7%
2.8%
-22.7%
-15.9%-20.5%
-11.6%
29.1%34.2%
23.2%21.1%
4.1%3.7%
7.1%13.5%
-1.9%-1.7%
4.2%7.6%
22.6%27.6%
4.4%
-33.3%-26.5%
-59.6%
-36.2%
-15.0%
-0.4%
70.7%
10.2%
-15.2%
46.0%
20.0%18.0%
-75%
-55%
-35%
-15%
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%
105%
125%
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
# Permits
(000)
*2015, 2016 and 2017 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Company
as of November 2015. 17
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family Year-End Vacancy Rates
Greater Phoenix County 1975–2017*Source: ASU Realty Studies / Berkadia**
6.2%
4.1%3.3%
2.8%
3.9%
6.1%
4.4%
6.1%
6.9%
7.7%
10.1%10.6%
13.0%14.1%
13.4%
10.0%9.5%
8.0%
4.0%3.8%4.5%4.5%
4.8%
5.1%5.9%
6.8%
8.2%
9.4%9.6%
7.9%
6.8%
7.8%
10.2%
12.5%
13.4%
10.8%
7.5%
6.3%
6.6%
6.0%
6.3%6.2%
6.1%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*2015, 2016 & 2017 are forecasts from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
**Data prior to 2005 is from ASU
Recession Periods
18
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Apartments
Births 26 year lag
1955-2038Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Baby Boomers Gen X Millennials
2015
19
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The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 21
JUST ALMOST DO IT.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
What has changed?
22
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Why has growth been slow?
(1) Recovery from the financial crisis of 2007/2008
(2) Lack of accelerator to income-
--Women entering workforce in 70s and 80s
--Absence of a quadrupling stock market in the 90s
--People not using their house as a credit card (‘96-’05)
(3) Underlying demographics
(4) Increased regulation and high corporate taxes
23
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56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
Labor Force Participation Rate (16 years and over)1950 – 2015*
Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsRecession Periods
*Seasonally adjusted data through October 2015.
24
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S&P 5001980-2015*
Source: Standard & Poor's (S&P); Moody's Analytics (ECCA) Converted
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
*Data through November 23, 2015
Recession Periods
25
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
as a share of Disposable Income
U.S.: 1971 – 2015* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Recession Periods
*Data through second quarter 2015
26
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Population by Age
Net Change 2015 – 2020Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-2,500
-1,000
500
2,000
3,500
757 884
108
-134
-929
1,014
1,3161,591
-391-744
-1,799
-24
1,9672,016
3,286
1,908
678
64
-429
(000s)
27
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Distribution of Movers in U.S. by Type*
1990-2014Source: U.S. Census Bureau
*Excludes movers in the same county
7.9 7.9 7.9 8.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.4 8.87.6 8.1 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.4
6.3 6.4 6.2 5.96.8 7.0 6.4
7.1 7.1 6.9 6.75.7
6.5 6.4 6.4
7.58.4
7.87.8
7.6 7.3 7.45.7
4.9
4.7 4.74.3 4.8
5.1 4.84.7
1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2
0.8
1.4 1.3 1.2
1.4
1.7
1.81.6
1.3 1.31.9
1.3
1.2
1.1 1.11.0 1.1
1.2 1.01.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Diffeferent county, same state Different county, different state From Abroad
11.512.2
18.9
Movers
(in
mill
ions)
28
17.2
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
For the U.S. as a Whole
• 2002 – 2006
• 2010 – 2014
29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note: Does not include in-state movers
Total Movers down 25.6%
• Movers from abroad down (26%)
• Movers from other states down (34%)
• Movers from other counties
in the state, down (18%)
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Capture Rate(from abroad and between states)
• 2002 – 2006 = 3.7%
• 2010 – 2014 = 3.3%
30Note: Does not include in-state movers
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SB 1070
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 32
There is Good News.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Single-family
33
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Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix
Single Family PermitsSource: R.L. Brown
Year Permits % chg
2004 60,872 27.6%
2005 63,570 4.4%
2006 42,423 -33.3%
2007 31,172 -26.5%
2008 12,582 -59.6%
2009 7,862 -37.5%
2010 6,822 -13.2%
2011 6,794 -0.4%
2012 11,615 71.0%
2013 12,785 10.1%
2014 10,840 -15.2%
2015* 13,547 46.4%*Data through October 2015. 35
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Population
Annual Percent Change 1975–2016*Source: AZ Dept. of Administration, EDPCo
2.7%
2.1%
3.7%
4.2%
4.7%
3.9%
3.3%
3.0%3.1%
4.3%
5.1%
4.2%
4.4%
2.9%
2.5%
1.3%
2.4%
2.8%
3.5%
4.3%4.6%
4.2%4.2%
3.8%
4.3% 4.3%
2.6%2.7%
3.1%
3.6%
3.8%3.7%
3.0%
1.9%
0.5%0.3%
0.6%
1.1%
1.5%1.5%1.6%
1.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Recession Periods
*2015 & 2016 forecasts from Elliott D. Pollack & Co. as of July 2015.
Pre-2008 Avg. 3.5%
36
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Domestic Migration Ranking2000-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3
11
5
11
3
6
3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
37
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona International Migration Ranking2000-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
108 8 7
97 8 7 8 8
18 17 17 17 17
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
38
SB 1070 passed in 2010
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 38a
The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
What is keeping potential buyers out of the
housing market?
Parade of horribles:(1) Negative Equity
(2) Foreclosures
(3) Short Sales
(4) Millennials
(5) Student Loans
(6) FHA Loan Limit
(7) Tougher Loan Standards
39
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. and Greater Phoenix
Negative Equity Share
2010–2015 Source: CoreLogic
24.9%22.5% 22.3%
14.9%
10.9%8.7%
41.9%
25.6%
19.5%
15.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2
U.S. Greater Phoenix
Greater Phoenix data prior to 2012 Q2 not available. 40
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Foreclosure Lag
2002–2022 Source: CoreLogic
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
CompletedForeclosures
7-Year Lag (Fannie/Freddie)
Sept. 2015
Recession Periods
41
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Short Sales
January 2011 – September 2015Source: ASU
1,936
195
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
42
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Millennials/Living at Home
• There are approximately 1.5 million more 25-34 year olds
living with their parents than 2002.
43
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When you delay marriage you
delay children. That delays
housing. That delays demand for
housing “stuff”.
44
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Total Student Loan Debt Has Tripled!
45
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Total Student Loan Balances
Billions of DollarsSource: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel / Equifax
Year TOTAL
2004 $347.1
2005 $392.8
2006 $478.8
2007 $541.3
2008 $633.3
2009 $714.4
2010 $803.5
2011 $866.3
2012 $959.9
2013 $1,071.0
2014 $1,155.5
45a
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Expenses that Delayed Saving for a Down Payment or
Home Purchase - 2014
By AgeSource: National Association of Realtors 2014
All Buyers 34 and
younger
34 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 68 69 to 89
Student Loans 46% 54% 23% 11% 7% 1%
Credit Card Debt 50% 35% 41% 37% 21% 12%
Car Loan 38% 30% 25% 16% 9% 5%
Child Care
Expenses
17% 10% 19% 5% 4% 2%
Health Care Costs 12% 7% 11% 14% 13% 15%
Other 8% 15% 24% 42% 58% 68%
46
Elliott D. Pollack & Company*Data through third quarter 2015
Average Borrowers Credit Scores
on All New FHA Loans
2007– 2015*Source: U.S. Dept. of HUD/FHA
632
700
683
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
Recession Periods
47a
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Average Borrowers Credit Scores
on All New Fannie Mae Loans
2004 – 2015* Source: Fannie Mae
716
762
747
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
Recession Periods
47b*Data through third quarter 2015
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Single Family Permits
Blue Chip ForecastSource: R.L. Brown, Greater Phoenix Blue Chip
Year Permits % Change
2014 10,840 -15.2%
2015* 15,880 46%
2016* 19,300 22%
2017* 22,900 19%
*2015, 2016 & 2017 are forecasts from third quarter Greater Phoenix Blue Chip.
48
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Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Lot Inventory
50
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Construction Employment
Annual
1970 – 2014* Source: University of Arizona Recession Periods(000s)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
Trough 82,400 jobs
Current 95,300 jobs
Peak 179,900 jobs
*Data from U of A Q4 2015 forecast
84,000 Jobs Gap
51
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Population:
Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Source: American Community Survey
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
-1.9%9.5%
9.2%
6.0%
3.6%
9.8%
6.1%
-8.5%
-6.4%
-13.8%-2.4% -1.9%
2.3%
Recession Periods
SB 1070 passed in 2010
52
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Positions Builders are Having Trouble Filling
Roofers
Plumbers
Painters
Electricians
Masons
Framers
Carpenters
40.0%
45.0%
46.0%
46.0%
53.0%
67.0%
68.0%
Source: National Association of Home Builders, June 2015
53
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 54
Who do we hire if there is a
construction labor shortage?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 55
The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Population by Age
Ages 18-40Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2014
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7 4.7
4.5
4.4
4.3 4.44.4
4.3
4.34.3
4.3
4.2
4.14.0
4.0
3.93.9
3.9
Millions
Average
Age of
First-time
Homebuyer
Average
Age of
Repeat
Homebuyer
Largest Age Cohort
56
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family
57
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Apartments
Births 26 year lag
1955-2038Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Baby Boomers Gen X Millennials
2015
58
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Retirement Home Cycle
Births 65 year lag
1994-2076Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2015
Baby Boomers Gen X Millennials
59
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family Year-End Vacancy Rates
Greater Phoenix County 1975–2017*Source: ASU Realty Studies / Berkadia**
6.2%
4.1%3.3%
2.8%
3.9%
6.1%
4.4%
6.1%
6.9%
7.7%
10.1%10.6%
13.0%14.1%
13.4%
10.0%9.5%
8.0%
4.0%3.8%4.5%4.5%
4.8%
5.1%5.9%
6.8%
8.2%
9.4%9.6%
7.9%
6.8%
7.8%
10.2%
12.5%
13.4%
10.8%
7.5%
6.3%
6.6%
6.0%
6.3%6.2%
6.1%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*2015, 2016 & 2017 are forecasts from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
**Data prior to 2005 is from ASU
Recession Periods
60
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family Housing Market Source: PMHS and Berkadia
Absorption Completions
2007 (3,121) 3,800
2008 (4,466) 5,900
2009 9,100 6,231
2010 11,619 200
2011 7,729 303
2012 2,950 910
2013 3,660 2,390
2014 6,750 4,970
61
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Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family PipelineSource: CB Richard Ellis
Year
Potential
New Supply
2015 6,621
2016 5,503
2017 10,159
63
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• Construction still lags (except for
apartment construction)
64
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Elliott D. Pollack & Company
OFFICE
66
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Office Space Year-End Vacancy Rates
Greater Phoenix 1986–2017*Source: CBRE
26.7%
22.8%
24.0%
26.7%26.4%
25.4%
22.7%
18.8%
14.8%
11.7%
9.5% 9.2%
9.5%10.0%
9.9%
16.0%
18.8%
18.3%
16.4%
12.6%
11.1%
13.9%
19.1%
24.5%
26.2%25.5%
23.9%
22.4%21.1%
18.7%17.5%16.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*2015, 2016 & 2017 are forecasts from Greater Phoenix Blue Chip.
Recession Periods
67
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Office Market*Source: CBRE
Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)
2005 3,119,293 7,987
2006 3,245,888 **2,320,302
2007 1,500,704 4,905,374
2008 (603,112) 3,402,646
2009 (667,329) 1,798,415
2010 233,670 2,011,404
2011 1,857,433 3,144,910
2012 2,020,529 973,282
2013 1,721,366 (35,566)
2014 1,969,716 1,107,906
2015*** 2,232,024 1,832,319*Only includes multi-tenant space greater than 10,000 SF
** A number of buildings in downtown and mid-town are being converted to office condos.
***Data through third quarter 2015 68
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
INDUSTRIAL
69
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Industrial Space Vacancy Rates
Greater Phoenix 1980 – 2017*Source: CBRE
8.4%
9.4%
11.1%
9.7%
12.8%
13.2%
16.4%15.2%14.6%
12.8%
14.0%
14.8%
13.6%
10.8%
7.4%
6.6%
5.7%
7.0%7.1%
8.1%7.4%
9.8%10.3%
9.7%
8.5%
5.6%
6.7%
8.4%
12.5%
16.1%
14.7%
12.4%
10.9%
11.4%11.0%11.1%
10.1%9.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
* 2015, 2016 & 2017 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip
Recession Periods
70
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Industrial MarketSource: CBRE
Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)
2005 13,349,129 7,072,477
2006 6,032,175 7,829,959
2007 8,359,835 13,914,181
2008 629,838 13,467,215
2009 (4,649,352) 4,753,218
2010 4,455,097 2,451,202
2011 7,753,111 2,842,185
2012 7,405,168 3,358,724
2013 8,783,982 8,902,571
2014 6,214,680 6,791,313
2015* 5,639,447 3,329,149
*Data through third quarter 2015 71
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RETAIL
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Retail MarketSource: CBRE
Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)
2005 6,708,155 6,248,789
2006 5,244,597 4,582,618
2007 9,424,362 11,104,865
2008 3,395,986 6,229,205
2009 (1,117,100) 4,405,985
2010 (75,352) 902,380
2011 (152,647) 24,543
2012 1,879,005 184,932
2013 1,579,202 (325,959)
2014 1,487,313 (49,225)
2015* 979,282 30,539
*Data through third quarter 2015 73
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Retail Space Vacancy Rates
Greater Phoenix 1985–2017*Source: CBRE**
6.6%
8.9%
10.0%
11.8%13.1%
14.2%
13.5%12.7%
11.1%
9.8% 8.7%
7.9%7.5%
6.3%5.5%
5.3%6.6%7.3%
7.4%
6.1%5.3%
5.1%
6.2%
7.5%
11.4%
12.2%12.2%
11.0%10.2%
9.6%9.3%8.7%8.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
* 2015, 2016 & 2017 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip
** Data prior to 1992 is from Grubb & Ellis
Recession Periods
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Good News –
Outlook for real estate is improving.
75
Elliott D. Pollack & Company 76
The World has Changed…
Pre-2007 Post-2007
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
For a quick analysis of
important economic data released
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