SRA311,Fall2008,FINAL(11/06/08) 1

RiskManagement:AssessmentandMitigation(SRA311)TuesdayandThursdaymornings,9:45amto11:00am(75‐minutespersession),in205ISTBuildingDESCRIPTION:RiskManagement:AssessmentandMitigationisajunior‐levelundergraduatecoursedesignedtoeducateaspiringriskprofessionalsontheproperapplicationofriskanalysisconceptstosecurity,intelligence,andotherproblems,andtoenhanceriskliteracy.Tothisend,thecoursecoversthebasicphilosophyofriskanalysistoincludedefinitionsofriskandthe“sixquestionsofriskanalysis;”scenarioconstruction;allaspectsofconsequence,threat,andvulnerabilityanalysis;qualitative,quantitative,anddescriptiveriskassessmentmethods;risktreatmentstrategiestoincluderiskacceptance,risktransfer,riskavoidance,andriskcontrolandmanagement;riskcommunication;andriskperception.Thecourseintroducestheseconceptsthroughcriticalreadingsfromtheriskanalysisliteratureandapplicationofthecoursematerialtoin‐classcasestudies,methodologyappraisals,andstudentprojects.OBJECTIVES:Studentssuccessfullycompletingthiscoursecan:

1. Describetheroleofariskanalysisinthedecision‐making

process2. Articulatethe“sixquestionsofrisk,”andthoroughlydescribe

thetermsandnotionsassociatedwithsecurityriskanalysis3. Explainthedifferenttypesofignoranceanduncertainty,and

provideexamplesofeachinasecuritycontext4. Discusstheroleofriskperceptionandmethodsforrisk

treatmentintheriskmanagementprocess5. Discussthe14PRECEPTSforethicsinsecurityriskanalysis6. Applyavarietyofstructuredanalysistechniquestoaidinthe

identificationofeventsandoutcomesandtheassessmentofvulnerabilityandeventlikeliness

7. Appraisealternativeriskassessmentmethodsintermsoftheirconsistencywithestablishednotionsofriskandtheircompatibilitywithsimilarmethodologies

8. Applythe“sixquestionsofrisk”todesignariskassessmentmethodologythatmeetstheneedsofaspecificdecisionmakerwithspecificdecisionsupportrequirements

9. Evaluatealternativesecurityinvestmentstrategiesintermsoftheirabilitytoreducerisk,andcomparethesestrategieswithalternativerisktreatmentoptions

10. ReciteandApplytheEightElementsofThoughtandtheIntellectualStandardstocriticallyevaluatescholarlyarticlesandessaysonthetopicofriskanalysis

11. Criticallyevaluatethemainideasandargumentsdiscussedinseveralwidelyrecognizedbooksonthetopicofriskanalysis

SRA311TeachingTeam

Instructor

WilliamL.McGill,PhD,PEAssistantProfessorofIST(andSRA)

307BISTBuildingUniversityPark,PA16802(814)867‐0270(office)wmcgill@ist.psu.edu

Theinstructorisgenerallyavailableforoutsideassistancefrom9:45amto11:15amonMondaysandfrom11:00amto12:30pmonWednesdays,orbyappointment.

TeachingAssistant

Ms.WenYaoISTGraduateStudent(PhD)

306AISTBuildingwxy119@ist.psu.edu

Theteachingassistantisavailableforoutsideassistancefrom4:30pmto5:30pmonMondaysandWednesdaysunlessotherwisestated,orbyappointment

TeachingIntern

Mr.RyanM.DewarISTUndergraduateStudent

rmd5019@psu.edu

Prerequisites

• Probability&Statistics(STAT200)• IntroductiontoSRA(SRA111)• TerrorismandCrime(SRA211)• DecisionAnalysis(SRA231)• College‐LevelWritingAbility

Recommended

• SetTheoryandLogic(IST230)• Open‐mindedness• Extracurricularexperienceperformingsomeriskanalyticfunction

FINAL11/06/08

SRA311,Fall2008,FINAL(11/06/08) 2

ASSIGNMENTSANDGRADING:Courseassignmentsconsistcriticalreadingsofkeyarticlesonrisk,criticalreviewsofwidelyrecognizedbooks(particularlybyfutureemployers)onvarioustopicsofrisk,twogroupprojectstodevelopandrefineyourunderstandingoftheprinciplesofriskanalysis,andcompletionofafinalexamcoveringtheverybasicelementsofriskanalysisandcriticalthinking.

CriticalArticleReviews(25%).Eachstudentisresponsibleforproducingnofewerthanfive(5)criticalreviewsofscholarlyarticlesonriskorriskanalyses.Thisactivityisdesignedtoexposestudentstomodernperspectivesonsecurityriskanalysiswhilepracticinghisorherabilitytocriticallyevaluateeachauthor’sargument.Articleswillbedueeachlecture,butstudentsneedonlysubmitareviewontheirindividualscheduledduedates.Ifastudentcompletesall5oftheirassignedarticles,anyadditionalarticlessubmittedthatscorehigherwilloverwritelowerscores.

CriticalBookReviews(20%).Eachstudentwillsubmitacriticalreviewoneachoftwo(2)massmarketbooksonthesubjectofrisk.Thebooksavailableforreviewarewidelyknowntorealdecisionmakersandmayactuallyhaveinfluencedtheirperceptionsandunderstandingofrisk.Thefirstreviewwillbeonabookthatallstudentswillread,andforthesecondbookstudentswillbedividedupevenlyamongthetitlesaccordingtothepreferencesfordifferenttopics.Readinggroupswillbeassembledtohelpwiththisactivity.

MethodologyAppraisal(10%).Eachstudentwilldissectoneortwosecurityriskanalysismethodologiesorstudiesintermsofterminology,approach,results,etc.fromonemethodologycompareswiththeresultsfromothers.Teamsmaybeformedforthiseffort,butthenumberofmethodologiesreviewedandrequirementsforappraisalincreaseswiththesizeoftheteam.

RiskAnalysisProject(25%).Eachstudentwillparticipateinariskanalysisproject,eitheraloneoraspartofagroup,thataddressesareal‐worldsecurityriskanalysisproblem.Eachprojectrelatestoarealquestionorproblemthatservestheinterestsofarealdecisionmaker.Successfulprojectsmaybeusedtoinformrealdecisionmaking,andmayprovidethebasisforfutureopportunities.FinalExamination(20%).Eachstudentwillcompleteanin‐classfinalexaminationcoveringthebareessentialtopicsofthiscourse.Thefinalexamwillconsistoftwoparts:thefirstpartisacriticalarticlereviewonarelativelyshortrisk‐relatedarticle,andthesecondpartconsistsof10‐20multiplechoicequestionsspanningthebareessentialtopicsofthiscourse.

IMPORTANTNOTE:TheSRAmajorrequiresthatallSRAstudentsachieveagradeofCorbetterinthiscoursetograduate(≥70%).

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READINGMATERIALS:Most,ifnotall,oftheday‐to‐daycoursematerialswillbeintheformoftechnicalarticlesongeneralandsecurityriskanalysistopics.LinkstocoursematerialsasPDFfileswillbemadeavailableonlineviathecoursewebsite.Twocategoriesofprintedbooksareintegraltothiscourse:three(3)requiredbooksandfive(5)optionalbooks[asdescribedbelow].

RequiredBooks.Thefollowingtitlesareallrequiredforthiscourse.BUYTHESERIGHTAWAY.• TheMiniatureGuidetoCriticalThinking:ConceptsandTools,byElderandPaul(ISBN:

0944583105)[anexcerptisavailableat:http://www.criticalthinking.org/files/Concepts_Tools.pdf]• TheMiniatureGuidetotheArtofAskingEssentialQuestions,byElderandPaul(ISBN:

0944583164)[anexcerptisavailableat:http://www.criticalthinking.org/files/SAM‐Questions2005.pdf]• AgainsttheGods:TheRemarkableStoryofRisk,byBernstein(ISBN:0471295639)

Pseudo‐OptionalBooks.Studentsareresponsibleforreadingoneofthefollowingtitles.DONOTBUYANYOFTHESEUNTILYOUKNOWWHICHBOOKYOUAREACCOUNTABLEFOR.

• TheBlackSwan:TheImpactoftheHighlyImprobable,byTaleb(ISBN:9781400063512)• WhyCan’tYouJustGiveMetheNumber:AnExecutive’sGuidetoUsingProbabilisticThinkingto

ManageRiskandtoMakeBetterDecisions(ISBN:0964793857)• MadCowsandMother’sMilk:ThePerilsofPoorRiskCommunication,byLeissandPowell(ISBN:

0773528172)• RiskBalance&Security,byGibbsvanBrunschotandKennedy(ISBN:9781412940702)• TheNextCatastrophe:ReducingOurVulnerabilitiestoNatural,Industrial,andTerrorist

Disasters,byPerrow(ISBN:9780691129976)

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TOPICAGENDAANDDELIVERABLESCHEDULE:ThefollowingisatentativescheduleoftopicsandassignmentduedatesfortheFall2008semester.Asanewclass,theinstructormayadjustcoursecontentandtimelinesasneededtoaccommodatebothstudentprogressandtheneedsofthesubject.

NOTE:topicsshadedinbluewillbecoveredonthefinalexam.

PartOne(Fundamentals) PartTwo(RiskAssessment)Date PlannedTopic Deliverable Date PlannedTopic DeliverableTUE8/26

1.CourseintroductionCriticalThinkingReview

StudentSurvey

TUE9/30 11.UncertaintyandIgnorance CAR07

THUR8/28 2.WordsandNotionsofRisk CAR00

THUR10/2 12.AnalyticMethodsI CAR08

TUE9/2

3.RiskAnalysisandDecisionAdvantage

CAR01 TUE10/7 13.AnalyticMethodsII CAR09

THUR9/4 4.TheSixQuestionsofRisk CAR02

THUR10/9 14.AnalyticMethodsIII CAR10

TUE9/9

5.InitiatingEvents,Hazards,andThreats

CAR03 TUE10/14 15.AnalyticMethodsIV CAR11

THUR9/11

6.Outcomes,Severity,andValuation

CAR04 THUR10/16 16.AnalyticMethodsV CAR12

TUE9/16 7.VulnerabilityAnalysisI CAR05

TUE10/21 17.MechanicsofRiskI CAR13

THUR9/18 8.VulnerabilityAnalysisII CAR06

THUR10/23 18.MechanicsofRiskII CAR14

TUE9/23 9.ThreatAnalysis **

TUE10/28 19.SourceAnalysis **

THUR9/25 10.RiskCaseStudy BookRev1

THUR10/30 20.AnalyticConfidence

MethodologyAppraisal

PartThree(RiskManagement)

Date PlannedTopic DeliverableTUE11/4 21.RiskCommunication CAR15

THUR11/6 22.RiskTreatment CAR16

TUE11/11 23.RiskPerception CAR17

THUR11/13 24.Countermeasures CAR18

TUE11/18 25.In‐ClassExercise CAR19

THUR11/20 26.WarningSystems CAR20

TUE‐THUR11/2511/27

THANKSGIVING

TUE12/2

27.MeasuringEffectivenessandAuditing

BookRev2

THUR12/4

28.EthicalIssuesinRiskAnalysis

**

TUE12/9

29.RiskManagementStandards

**THUR12/11

30.CourseRecap/RiskAnalysisinPractice

RiskAnalysisProject

TUE12/?? FINALEXAM–DATETBD

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POLICIESANDPROCEDURES:Thissectiondescribeshowthecoursewillrun,toincludetheformatoflectures,attendance,latepolicy,etc.Payverycloseattentiontothisinformationasitshapeshowyouwillexperienceandfunctioninthiscourse.LectureFormat.Lectureswilltaketheformofclassdiscussionsofdailyreadings,walk‐throughsofriskstudies,groupexercisesandcasestudies,useoftoolsandtechnologiesforriskanalysis,in‐classexperiments,andothermiscellaneousclassroomactivities.Thenatureofthespecifictopicsdiscussedonagivendaywilldrivetheformatforthelecture.Eachlectureis1hourand15minuteslong.Inthosecircumstanceswheretheinstructormustmissclass,apre‐recordedvideo(orperhapslivestream)ofthemissedlecturewillbemadeavailableinstead.CourseWebsite.AllcontentforthiscoursewillbeavailableontheANGELsite,includinginstructionsonobtainingreadingmaterials,assignmentduedates,etc.

CourseCommunication.AllcoursecommunicationsbetweenstudentsandinstructormustbedoneelectronicallythroughtheANGELsystem.Thispolicyisfortworeasons:(1)toprotectyouagainstmeoverlookingyourmessageamongthefloodofemailsIreceiveonadailybasis,and(2)tokeepapermanentrecordofcourseon‐goings.Allcourse‐relatedemailsentoutsidetheANGELsystemwillbeignored.SubmittingAssignments.Thiscourseisapaperlesscourse.GradableversionsofallassignmentsmustbeuploadedtotheappropriatedigitaldropboxonANGEL,withinthe48clock‐hoursprecedingthestartofclassontheassignmentduedate.AllassignmentsmustbesubmittedasPDFfileswiththefollowingnamingconvention(allCAPS,datedigitsseparatedbyhyphens):

PSUID_ASSIGNMENT_MM-DD-YY.pdf

Forexample,theWilliamMcGillsubmittingreadingassignment“CAR08”on22Sep2008(dueon9/23/08)wouldtitletheirPDFfileas“WLM142_CAR08_09‐22‐08.pdf.”Notfollowingthisstandardmayreducetheassignmentgradeinasmallbutannoyingwayinproportiontothedegreeandrepetitivenessoftheoffense.Gradedassignmentswillbereturnedwiththesamefilenameappendedby“_GRADED”priortothefileextension.

LateAssignments.Nolateassignmentsareaccepted.Ifyouanticipatebeinglatewithanassignment,arrangewiththeinstructororteachingassistanttosubmittheassignmentearly.ClassAttendance.Allstudentsareadvisedtoattendalllectures.BeginningwithPartIIofthecourse,formalattendancewillbetakenviaavarietyofcreativemeans.Failuretoattendclassmayresultinuptoa5%reductioninthefinalcoursegrade.StudentswithDisabilities.ItisPennState’spolicytonotdiscriminateagainstqualifiedstudentswithdocumenteddisabilities.Ifafterreviewingthissyllabusyoufindtheneedtomodifyanyaspectofthecoursetoaccommodateyourdocumenteddisability,pleasemeetwiththeinstructortodiscussyourconcernsandtomakearrangementsforanyaccommodations.YouwillbeaskedtopresentdocumentationfromtheOfficeofDisabilityServices(locatedin105BouckeBuilding)thatdescribesthenatureofyourdisabilityandtherecommendedremedy.YoumayrefertotheNondiscriminationPolicyintheStudentGuidetoUniversityPoliciesandRules.

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TeachingAssistantDuties.Thiscoursehasoneteachingwhosecommitmenttothecoursewillnotexceed20‐hoursperweekonaverage.Theteachingassistanthasthefollowingresponsibilities:• Providesoutsidesupporttostudentsduringscheduledofficehoursandpossiblyatothertimesbyappointmentifavailableandwilling

• Attendsalllecturesandmonitorsinappropriateuseoftechnologyduringclass• Gradesallcriticalarticlereviewsandcontributestowardgradingofcriticalbookreviews(notethattheinstructorwillbegradingallprojects)

• Maintainsarecordofstudentgradesandprovidestimelyresponsestoreasonablestudentrequestsforclassperformance

• Reportstotheinstructorallissuespertainingtorelevantpersonalandacademicproblemsofstudentsandgroups

• Otherdutiesasdeemedappropriatebytheinstructor• Teachingassistantsdonotassignfinalgrades

TeachingInternDuties.Thiscoursehasoneteachinginternwithacommitmenttothecoursethatwillnotexceed4hoursperweekonaverage.Theteachinginternhasthefollowingduties:• Providesin‐classsupportforgroupactivitiesandexercisesandout‐of‐classgrouptutorialsasneeded• Subjectivelymeasuresthestudentsentimentandprovidesfeedbacktotheinstructoronhowtoimprovedeliveryofcoursesubjects

• Asneededandastimepermits,providesoutsideassistancetostudentsintheformofmathtutorials,brainstorming,devilsadvocacy,andmentorship.

• Teachinginternsdonotgradeanyassignments,takeattendance,ordisciplinestudentsCourseComedy.Comedyisnotappreciatedinanygradedaspectofthecourse(non‐gradedisok).Thepenaltyforunprofessionalismcanbeuptoa100%reductioninagradedependingonthenatureoftheoffense.SleepinginClass.Ifastudentfallsasleepinclass,heorshewillbewokenup.AcademicIntegrity.AccordingtotheUniversityHandbook:

Academicintegrityisthepursuitofscholarlyactivityfreefromfraudanddeception,andistheeducationalobjectiveofthisinstitution.Academicdishonestyincludes,butisnotlimitedto,cheating,plagiarism,fabricationofinformationorcitations,facilitatingactsofacademicdishonestybyothers,unauthorizedpossessionofexaminations,submittingworkofanotherperson,orworkpreviouslyusedwithoutinformingtheinstructor,ortamperingwiththeacademicworkofotherstudents.Anyviolationofacademicintegritywillbethoroughlyinvestigated,andwhenwarranted,punitiveactionwillbetaken.

Anystudentforwhichthereisreasonableandconvincingevidencethatsuggestsheorsheisorhasbeenacademicallydishonestwillbeaggressivelyprosecuted.