sres approach to scenario formation

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SRES Approach to Scenario Formation Linda O. Mearns NCAR/ICTP GECAFS Meeting Reading, UK August 2003

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SRES Approach to Scenario Formation. Linda O. Mearns NCAR/ICTP. GECAFS Meeting Reading, UK August 2003. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 Purpose: to assess the scientific and socio-economic information regarding climate change - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Linda O. Mearns

NCAR/ICTP

GECAFS Meeting

Reading, UK

August 2003

Page 2: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

• Purpose: to assess the scientific and socio-economic information regarding climate change

• The IPCC has three Working Groups:

•Working Group I: Science of the climate system

•Working Group II: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

•Working Group III: Options for limiting greenhouse gases

• There have been three full assessments: 1990, 1995, 2001

Page 3: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Purpose of Scenarios

• WGI - provide emissions scenarios for driving Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs

• WGII – provision of climate change scenarios, and background scenario information (demographics, economic conditions, technology) for determining impacts of climate change on various resource systems.

• WGIII - need information on socio-economic settings for determining potential mitigation policy/strategies

Page 4: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Basis of Scenarios

• Extensive assessment of driving forces and emissions in the scenario literature, alternative modeling approaches, and an “open process’’ that solicited wide participation and feedback.

• Open process refers to use of multiple models, seeking inputs from wide community, and making results widely available for comment and review. There was an open SRES website.

Page 5: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Basis 2

• No preference provided for any one scenario, not assigned probability of occurrence, not to be taken as policy recommendations

• Do not include assumption of implementation of UNFCCC or targets of the Kyoto Protocol

Page 6: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Process of Scenarios Development

• Four qualitative story lines developed Basic features and driving forces • Teams modeled and quantified different

storylines • Resulted in the 40 emissions scenarios • Six IA type models used to generate the

scenarios: Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM);

Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF);

Page 7: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Development 2

• Models (cont’d): Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse

Effect (IMAGE); Multiregional Approach for Resource and

Industry Allocation (MARIA); Model for Energy Supply Strategy

Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE);

Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM)

Page 8: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 9: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Main Scenario Driving Forces

• Population - exogenous input to models

7-15 billion by 2100

• Economic Development - US$197-550

trillion by 2100 (gross world product)

• Structural and Technological Change –

represented by energy and land use

Page 10: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Four Macro-regions

• OECD90 – countries belonging to OECD (Annex I countries), developed

• REF - countries undergoing economic reform – Eastern Europe and FSU

• ASIA – all developing countries in Asia

• ALM – all other developing countries, Latin America, Africa, Middle East

Page 11: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 12: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

SRES Emissions ScenariosThe Four Major Story Lines

• A1 – characterized by very rapid economic growth, global population peaking in mid-century, and then declining, and rapid introduction of new, efficient technologies. Three different subgroups in the A1 storyline are defined that present alternative changes in technology: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil (A1T) and balanced across sources (A1B).

• A2 – characterized by heterogeneity. Self reliance and local identities are emphasized. Population increases continuously. Economic development is regionally oriented, and economic and technological growth is relatively slow, compared to other storylines.

• B1 – a convergent world, having the population growth of the A1 story line. Economic structures change rapidly toward a service and information economy, clean and resource-efficient technologies are introduced, with emphases on social and environmental sustainability.

• B2 – local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability is emphasized. Global population grows continuously, but at rate lower than that of A2.

Page 13: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 14: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

IMAGE 2.2 - 1970 Land Cover

IMAGE 2.2 Land Cover Types

0 - Ocean

1 - Agriculture

2 - Extensive grassland

3 - C plantation - NU

4 - Regrowth (abandon)

5 - Regrowth (timber)

6 - Ice

7 - Tundra

8 - Wooded Tundra

9 - Boreal Forest

10 - Cool Conifer

11 - Temperate Mixed Forest

12 - Temperate Decid Forest

13 - Warm Mixed Forest

14 - Grass/Steppe

15 - Desert

16 - Scrubland

17 - Savanna

18 - Tropical Woodland

19 - Tropical Forest

No Data

Page 15: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

IMAGE 2.2 - A2: 2100 Land Cover

IMAGE 2.2 Land Cover Types

0 - Ocean

1 - Agriculture

2 - Extensive grassland

3 - C plantation - NU

4 - Regrowth (abandon)

5 - Regrowth (timber)

6 - Ice

7 - Tundra

8 - Wooded Tundra

9 - Boreal Forest

10 - Cool Conifer

11 - Temperate Mixed Forest

12 - Temperate Decid Forest

13 - Warm Mixed Forest

14 - Grass/Steppe

15 - Desert

16 - Scrubland

17 - Savanna

18 - Tropical Woodland

19 - Tropical Forest

No Data

Page 16: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 17: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 18: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Tot

al C

umul

ativ

e C

arb

on D

ioxi

de E

mis

sion

s (G

tC)

Cumulative Emission 1990-2100, CtC

High > 1800 GtC

Medium High 1450-1800 GtC

Medium Low 1100-1450 GtC

Low < 1100 GtC

A1F1

A2

A1B

B2A1T

B1

IS92 Range

Page 19: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 20: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 21: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

AOGCM Simulations

Page 22: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Change in Sea Level Rise

Page 23: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Spatial Scale of Uncertainty

T

P

T

?P

T

??P

Uncerta

inty

Projections of Future Climate

Page 24: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 25: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation
Page 26: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Downscaling the SRES Scenarios

TGCIA Activities

Page 27: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Moving from aggregate to decision-maker relevant

scales

• SRES reported data on the level of the 4 macro-regions

• Many of the IA models produced results at higher resolutions

CIESEN has collected high res. data – and made it available • CIESEN also formally downscaled

socio-economic data to nation level

Page 28: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

Plans for Next IPCC Assessment

Page 29: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

IPCC: 2002 to 2007

• 3 Working groups maintain same scope as in last 5 years:– WG1: Physical climate system– WG2: Impacts and Adaptation– WG3: Mitigation

• Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to be completed in 2007

• Planning and scoping: 2003, 2004Drafting and reviewing: 2005, 2006.

Page 30: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

IPCC AR4: Proposed Themes

• More careful approach to describing uncertainties - consistent across WGs

• Integrating mitigation and adaptation• Identifying key vulnerabilities in regions

and systems• Putting climate change in the context of

sustainable development• Adopting a consistent regional approach

across WGs.

Page 31: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

IPCC WG1: Likely issues (1)

• Avoiding the “tyranny of the global mean” – greater regional focus

• Updating climate change scenarios for impact studies (particularly for vulnerable regions: polar, monsoon, coral reefs,… )

• New focus on Climate – Water issues• Climate Sensitivity – how do we reduce the

1.5oC to 4.5oC range !

Page 32: SRES Approach to Scenario Formation

IPCC WG1: Likely issues (2)

• Emission scenarios– rely mainly on existing scenarios, but…– black carbon emissions– climate change feedbacks on natural emissions– harmonizing SRES scenarios with the 1990 –

2005 period

• Direct influence of aerosols on the hydrological cycle