SSCI E-100b Graduate Research Methods and Scholarly Writing in the Social Sciences:

Government and History (23667)Joe & Doug Bond

1/27/2014

Syllabus

isites

Introduction to the Course, Social Science Approach, ALM Context and Proseminar

Objectives

Final grades are calculated as follows: • Facilitation and participation 7% • In-class exercises 8%• Argument writing assignment 10% • Book review writing assignment 15% • Literature review writing assignment 25% • Mid-term exam 10% • Research design writing assignment 20% • Research design oral presentation 5% • Final grade 100%

Harvard Extension School is not a traditional graduate program. Explain.

Volunteers for next week’s facilitation

NOTE: facilitators for next week should cover 1) Reading and Understanding Research (entire book) and 2) The 2012 Human Security Report

Introductions

Basics – will be brief but the .ppt will be posted on the course website

Qualitative vs. Quantitative vs. Mixed Methods

• Largely a moot debate (more and more studies utilize mixed methods)– Your questions should always determine your methodological approach, not

the reverse

• Why and when to use A and why and when to use B depends:– Is there a relationship between regime type and violent conflict?

– What are the odds that the nation of Fester will fail in the next 5 years?

– What is the role of political culture as it relates to negotiations?

– What would have happened if Germany refrained from invading Poland in 1939?

• Your choice of methods depends on how you operationalize your variables (e.g. how do you intend to measure political culture, etc.?)

Variables

Independent variables (IVs) are those variables that help explain a dependent variable

Independent variables must be antecedent to dependent variables (e.g. relationship between education and income)

Dependent variables (DVs) are the things you are trying to explain

Example: Relationship between SAT scores (IV) and success in college (DV)

Dependent variable should always be labeled along the y axis of a graph

Level of Measurement

• Why is it important?

– Nominal: (measures not ranked: gender, religion, etc.)– Ordinal (measures rank ordered: economic class)– Interval (measures equally ranked: income)– Ratio as characterized in the social sciences (the

measure has an absolute zero: mass, length, time)

• Think Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio (NOIR)!

Association• An Association between two variables: the values of one variable tend to coincide (vary or

covary) with the values of the another

• Example 1: the relationship between sex education and teen pregnancy.

– Teen pregnancy as the DV, sex education as an IV (note: in this example we treat the

latter as antecedent to the former)

– We might hypothesize that increased exposure to sex education programs help mitigate

the incidences of teen pregnancy (i.e. they vary: as X goes up, Y goes down)

• Example 2: the relationship between education (IV) and income (DV)

– We might hypothesize the more education one has, the higher one’s future income will be

(i.e. they covary: as X goes up, Y goes up)

High Sc

hool

Some C

ollege

Ph.D.

Associa

tes Deg

ree

Bachelo

rs Deg

ree

Masters

Degree JD MD

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Level of EducationAnnual Income

An anomaly. Wrong career

trajectory.

Correlation• A statistical term that indicates the strength and direction of a

linear relationship between variables (e.g. the relationship between education and income)

• IMPORTANT! Association or correlation DOES NOT imply causation

– example 1: drowning (DV) and consumption of ice cream (IV) – they covary (as ice cream consumption goes up, incidents of drowning increases)

– example 2: children’s shoe size (IV) and math performance (DV) – they covary (as shoe size gets bigger, math skills go up)

• Example 2 also highlights the importance of definitions, operationalization and transparency

• example 1: ice cream consumption is a proxy for temperature• example 2: shoe size is a proxy for age

More on Correlation

• Correlation is a measure of the direction and degree of strength between two or more variables

• A correlation coefficient (r or Pearson’s r) is a numerical index of that relationship

• The magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship between variables (i.e. -1 to +1)

• +1 means a perfect positive correlation (co-vary) while -1 shows a perfect negative correlation (vary)

• The closer the correlation coefficient is to +1 or -1,

the stronger the relationship

• But even a strong [negative or positive] correlation is meaningless if the level of error (significance) is large (e.g. p < 0.5 vs. p < 0.01)

Hypotheses & Null Hypotheses

• H1: as education increases, likelihood of voting increases

• H0: education has no effect (≠) on the likelihood of a person voting

• Why do we “test” the null hypothesis?– the strongest “proof” is the inability to “disprove”– error cannot be eliminated– like it or not, “facts” change

Avoid words like “this proves…” or “this is irrefutable proof…;” instead, use “supports,” lends support to,” etc.

Types of Analysis

Analysis may have exploratory, descriptive, explanatory, and predictive objectives or some combination of these aims

Evaluation research is a 5th type that is not discussed here, albeit it is no less important

Exploratory Research

• Undertaken when very little is known about a phenomenon

• Forms the foundation for subsequent descriptive and explanatory research

• In the early 1980s we did not have a good handle on how many Americans were infected with HIV/AIDS or even what caused of it.

• This sort of research is often linked with activism

Descriptive Research• Serves to identify important areas of inquiry

• Often serves as the first step in explanatory inquiry

• Addresses whether a phenomenon is a common occurrence or a rate event

• Describe the U.S. electorate and electoral behavior:– Jewish Americans tend to vote for democrats– Catholics tended to vote democratic but the abortion issue has created a rift– Latinos tended to vote overwhelmingly democratic but this began to

change in 1999 and swung back again in 2008

• Examples: Observational Research, Historical Research, etc.

Explanatory Research

• Scientific inquiry usually does not end with description but proceeds to explanation

• Descriptive findings are likely to lead to the investigation of the factors associated with the outcome and to attempts to understand how these factors contribute to the occurrence of the outcome

• Understanding how something works allows us to better predict the future (applies to both qualitative and quantitative research)

• Examples: Lessons Learned, Counterfactual Thought Experiments, Regression Analysis, etc.

Prediction: “optimistic/happy” pop hits predict a bull market six months in advance

Typically follows explanatory research but not always!State Failures, Stock Predictions, etc.

Model, below, yields between 50-55% excess returns with no compounding using events data

Émile Durkheim’s Suicide (1897): An Example of the Research Process

Durkheim’s Variables• Inductive Approach or Theory Building

• Dependent Variable(s) (what is he trying to explain): RATES of SUICIDE in Europe (1800s)

• Independent Variables (those things that help “explain” the Dependent Variable(s)): CLIMATE, AGE, GENDER, POLITICAL TURMOIL, RELIGION (limited to Christianity), MARITAL STATUS, DEPENDENTS, ETC.

• Recall Levels of Measurement (NOIR)– Nominal (can’t be ranked)– Ordinal (ranked with unequal or arbitrary intervals)– Interval (equal intervals)– Ratio (as interval with “true” zero)

Some of Durkheim’s Descriptive Findings

• Suicide rates are higher for widowed, single and divorced men than married men

• Suicide rates are higher for people without children than with children

• Suicide more pronounced in colder climates• Suicide rates are higher among Protestants

than Catholics

Differences between Protestants and Catholics

• Suicide is [more of] a sin for Catholics • Role of coroners– if no suicide note is left, it comes down to

the coroner's interpretation (circa 1897)• Differences in social integration– Catholics tend to have higher levels of

social integration– think the movie My Big, Fat Greek

Wedding.

The Notion of Integration: Going Beyond Religion

• Catholic countries tend to be more integrated than Protestant countries,

with closer family ties

– this is why people who are married and/or have children commit less suicide

– simply put, they have more to live for

• This is even reflected in physical proximity when speaking with others

• Social bonds are composed of two factors:

– social integration: attachment to other individuals within society

– social regulation: attachment to society's norms

• Suicide rates may increase when extremities in these factors occur

Building a Theory: Social Integration

• abnormally high or low levels of social integration may result in increased suicide rates;– low levels of social integration result in

disorganized society (chaos);– high levels of social integration drive some to

suicide in order to avoid becoming burdens on society

Durkheim’s Suicide Typology• Egoistic suicide

– Ties attaching the individual to society are weak

– Few social ties to keep the individual from taking his or her own life (Why not?)

• Altruistic suicide

– Individuals are extremely attached to society and have no life of their own (self-

emulation)

– They believe their death can bring about a benefit to the society

• Anomic suicide

– Weak social regulation between the society's norms and the individual (life

becomes too unpredictable and uncertain)

– Often brought on by dramatic changes in economic and/or social circumstances

(e.g. wars, recessions and other turmoil, etc.)

• Fatalistic suicide

– Social regulation is completely instilled in the individual (suicide bombers)

– No hope of change against an oppressive society

Research Cycle as an Iterative Process

Durkheim used an inductive approach, moving from steps #2 & #3 to build step #1 (observation theory)Most quantitative research involves deductive research (i.e. theory empirical testing)

Group Exercise (groups of 2 or 3)

1. Form groups of 32. For each group,

1. define one of the four concepts, below2. operationalize the concept (i.e. how would you measure

the concept in your research?)3. Reconvene in 5 – 8 minutes (max)

• Attractiveness• Democracy• Terrorism• Leadership• Love

In-Class Writing Exercise 1 January 27, 2014

Educating Sergeant Pantzke (17:57)

Should take no longer than 10 minutes to complete this exercise

On the opposite side of this paper only, take a position: The U.S. government should [should not] decide which schools can receive GI bill funding. For example, veterans working their way through Harvard should be able to use GI bill funds whereas vets working on a degree at the University of Phoenix should be prohibited to fund their education through the GI bill.

Include any evaluation criteria that come to mind if you take the position that some schools but not others should qualify for GI bill funding.