ssi
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SSI. Introduction. Introduction Purpose of the SSI Working definition of space security “The secure and sustainable access to and use of space, and freedom from space-based threats.”. Methodology. Environment. Laws, Policies and Doctrines. Civil Space. Commercial Space. Military Space. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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SSIIntroduction
Purpose of the SSI
Working definition of space security
“The secure and sustainable access to and use of space, and freedom from space-based threats.”
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
3
SSIMethodology
1) Research on trends and developments
2) Online questionnaire
3) Expert review of research
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
4
SSIThe Space Environment- Trends -
Growing debris threats to spacecraft, but annual rate of new debris production decreasing
Increasing awareness of space debris threats and continued development of international debris mitigationguidelines Growing demand for radio frequency spectrum
Growing demand for orbital slot allocations
Space surveillance capabilities to support collision avoidance slowly improving
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
5
SSIThe Space Environment- Developments -
Space debris population increased by 2.1 percent
Space debris mitigation guidelines drafted at UN COPUOS
Over one thousand cases of radio-frequency interference reported
Regional efforts to harmonize radio-frequency utilization in Europe and Southeast Asia
China established space debris monitoring body
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
6
SSILaws, Policies, and Doctrines - Trends -
Progressive development of legal framework for outer space activities: 1967 OST; 1968 Rescue Agreement; 1972 Liability and 1975 Registration Conventions
Some work at COPUOS, but the CD has been deadlocked on space weapons issues since 1998
National space policies consistently emphasize international cooperation and peaceful uses of outer space
Growing focus within national military doctrine on security uses of outer space
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
7
SSILaws, Policies, and Doctrines - Developments -
Further stalemate in “Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space” (PAROS) debate at UN
Expansion of COPUOS mandate proposed
New space policies adopted in China, Europe, Japan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and US
India, Israel, and Japan stressing national security space applications
US to release of new military space policy directive
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
8
SSICivil Space and Global Utilities - Trends -
Growth in the number of actors gaining access to space
Changing priorities and funding levels within civil space programs
Steady growth in international cooperation in civil space
Dramatic growth in use of global utilities
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
9
SSICivil Space and Global Utilities - Developments -
Global progress in space access, launch, and propulsion technologies
Civil space agencies announce new programs, greater focus on manned space exploration and micro-satellites
Modest increases in international civil space budgets
Space agencies develop asteroid interception missions
Successful launch of first Galileo satellite despite funding concerns
China and India access Russian GLONASS satellite navigation system
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
10
SSICommercial Space - Trends -
Continued overall growth in commercial space industryWorld commercial space revenues rose from $2.1 billion in 1980 to ~$100 billion in 2004
Declining commercial launch costs support increased commercial access to space
GEO launch costs have declined from about $40,000/kg in 1990 to $26,000/kg in 2000
Government subsidies and national security concerns play an important role in the commercial space sector
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
11
SSICommercial Space - Developments -
Unequal growth in commercial space industry
Privatization and consolidation continues
US continues to lose commercial launch market share to Europe and Russia
Interest in nascent space tourism sector
US government remains single largest commercial space client
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
12
SSISpace Support for Terrestrial Military Operations - Trends -
US and USSR/Russia lead in developing military space systems
US has over 100 operational military satellites, 90% of global military space spendingRussia has approximately 61 operational military satellites
More states developing military space capabilities:Australia, Chile, China, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, NATO, Spain, UK all have dedicated military space assets
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
13
SSISpace Support for Terrestrial Military Operations - Developments -
Significant cost overruns and delays in US military space acquisition programs
Russia continues to face program setbacks
Regional tensions drive military space development in Asia and Middle East
China continues to expand military space program
European nations expand imaging and communications capabilities
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
14
SSISpace Systems Protection - Trends -
US and Russia lead in general capabilities to detect rocket launches, the US in the development of technologies to detect direct attacks on satellites
Protection of satellite ground stations a concern: protection of satellite communications links poor but improving
Protection of satellites against some direct threats improving Russia and the US lead in capabilities to rapidly rebuild space systems following a direct attack on satellites
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
15
SSISpace Systems Protection - Developments -
US developing geostationary and ground-based space situational awareness
US successfully tests GPS “pseudolite”
Increasing encryption of satellite communications
Improvements in radiation hardened processors
US research satellite to facilitate greater use of MEO
Smaller, cheaper launches increasing ability to recover after attack
Russia continuing to develop air launch capacity
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
16
SSISpace Systems Negation - Trends -
Proliferation of capabilities to attack ground stations and communications links
US leading in the development of space situational awareness capabilities to support space negation
Ongoing proliferation of ground-based capabilities to attack satellites
Increasing access to space-based negation enabling
capabilities
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
17
SSISpace Systems Negation - Developments -
State-sponsored jamming incidents in Libya and Iran, Falun Gong sponsored jamming in China
Progress on High-Energy Lasers in the US and on basic laser research in China
Upgrades in US and Russian ground-based anti-ballistic missile systems
Actors in China, France, and UK continue basic research into kinetic kill vehicles
US micro-satellites demonstrate dual-use rendezvous and surveillance capabilities
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
18
SSISpace-Based Strike Weapons - Trends -
No space-based strike weapons (SBSW) have been tested or deployed in space; the US continues to develop a space-based interceptor for its missile defense system
A growing number of actors are developing SBSW precursor technologies outside of SBSW programs
Precision navigationMicro-satellitesPrecision re-entryPrecision attitude controlHigh power lasersHigh-G thrustersLarge ∆-V thrustersPrecision maneuverability
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion
19
SSISpace-Based Strike Weapons - Developments -
SBSW ProgramsUS NFIRE Kill Vehicle test cancelled
SBSW pre-cursor technologiesDevelopment of precision re-entry technology in US, Russia, China, and Europe
Upgrades in US and Russian global missile tracking and warning
US, Europe, China, Russia, and India continue research and development of global positioning systems
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike Weapons
Conclusion