ssp process - joint global change research institute€¦ · ssp process detlef van vuuren, keywan...
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![Page 1: SSP process - Joint Global Change Research Institute€¦ · SSP process Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi ... SSP colors (marker + range) History line and dot PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022021610/5b838e057f8b9a866e8d451f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
SSP process Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi and many others.
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WG3 Community:
WG1 community – : WG2 Community:
Common scenarios
Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic and development in
order to determine mitigation effort and
cost-benefits of climate change
Scenario provide insight into… plausible development of forcers and plausible climate futures
Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic
development (vulnerability) and
climate change (impacts)
Scenarios play a key role in climate research
Adapted from Edmonds
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RCPs
Climate SSPs
Scenarios as mean to link communities
Drivers (population
, GDP)
Energy use,
Land use Emissions
Conc./ forcing
Climate/ Environmental
change
Impact Exposed population, ability to adapt
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Fo
rcin
g l
evel (W
/m
2)
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5 RCPs
Climate SSPs
Narratives Quantitative drivers
IAM reference scenario (e.g., SSP3-Ref)
IAM SSP-RCP scenario (e.g., SSP3-4.5)
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
Socioeconomic information
Climate information
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SSP1 SSP2 SSP3
Shared Socio-economic Pathways
SSP4 SSP5
Challenge to adaptation
Challenge t
o m
itig
ation
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
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Challenge to adaptation
Challenge t
o m
itig
ation
SSP1:Sustainability
SSP2: Middle of the Road
SSP3: Regional rivalry
SSP4: Inequality
SSP5: Fossil fuel-ed development
The Scenario Matrix Architecture
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Narratives
Model tables
Energy
Land-use
Overview
Aerosol/Pollutant Emissions
SSP special Issue
O’Neill et al
GDP
POP
Urbanization
Dellink, Crespo, Leimbach et al.
KC & Lutz
Jiang & O’Neill
AIM
/CG
E, G
CAM
, IM
AG
E,
MESSAG
E-G
LO
BIO
M,
REM
IND
-M
AG
PIE
, W
ITCH
-GLO
BIO
M
SPAs
IAM-based
SSPs
Mitigation
scenarios
Riahi et al
Bauer et al
Popp et al
Rao et al
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SSPs
KC and Lutz Dellink et al Jiang and O’Neil
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A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy S
tru
ctu
re (
five
ma
rke
r sc
en
ari
os
)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy S
tru
ctu
re (
five
ma
rke
r sc
en
ari
os
)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
tru
ctu
re (
five
ma
rker
scen
ari
os)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
tru
ctu
re (
five m
ark
er
scen
ari
os)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
A)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fin
al E
nerg
y (E
J)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
185018751900
1925
1970
1950
Oil + Gas
Renewables
NuclearCoal
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP1 IMAGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP4 GCAM4
2010 2040 2070 2100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE
2010
SSP1
SSP4
SSP5
SSP3SSP2
Pri
mary
En
erg
y S
tru
ctu
re (
five m
ark
er
scen
ari
os)
Non-fossil
(renewables & nuclear)
Oil & gas
Coal
Total Final Energy Demand
(all IAM scenarios)
LEGEND missing
• SSP colors (marker + range)
• History line and dot
• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)
LEGEND
SSP colors (marker + range)
Add AR5 max/min line
Primary Energy Triangle
(all IAM scenarios)
B) C)
Coal
Oil/gas
Other
21 januari 2016 9
Bauer et al.
Baseline
4.5 W/2
2.6 W/2
Primary energy use (EJ)
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Wide range from rewilding in the SSP1 to continious expansion of human-dominated area in SSP3
21 januari 2016 10
Popp et al.
Land area (million ha)
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21 januari 2016 11
Rao et al.
Air pollution Much wider range than in RCPs… from high pollution world (SSP3) to clean air (SSP1/2.6-scenarios)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Sulfur
(MtS
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
RCPs
IAM range SSP marker
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Greenhouse gas emissions
21 januari 2016 12
Riahi et al.
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13
CO2 emissions
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21 januari 2016 14
SSP5
SSP3
SSP2
SSP4
SSP1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2.6 W/m2
Forcing (W/m2)
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21 januari 2016 15
Scenario matrix architecture forms scenario tool kit
• Offers storylines and quantitative information for ‘reference scenarios’ for: • Further elaboration in impact research (consistent
set of socio-economic data) • Basis for new climate research (e.g. treatment of
land-use, aerosols) • Offers opportunity to elaborate scenarios in
regional/sectoral studies • Provides opportunity for mitigation ánd
impact/adaption research in one structure
SSP3 SSP2 SSP1 SSP3 SSP2 SSP1
Mitigation Impacts/adaptation
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Feasibility and costs of targets greatly depend on the SSP
(Mitigation costs as % of GDP)
Fo
rcin
g l
evel (W
/m
2)
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
0.01 (0.01-0.03)
0.27 (0.01-0.27)
0.15 (0.08-0.15)
0.62 (0.23-1.00)
0.54 (0.44-0.54)
1.88 (0.50-1.88)
1.33 (1.33-3.47)
0.02 (0.02-0.02)
0.09 (0.03-0.28)
0.68 (0.46-0.68)
3.09 (3.09-4.62)
0.18 (0.1-0.18)
SSP1 SSP4 SSP2 SSP3 SSP5
0.09 (0.07-0.12)
0.93 (0.08-0.93)
0.43 (0.43-0.82)
2.09 (0.87-2.79)
1.40 (1.40-1.41) 3.4
0.04 (0.01-0.04)
1
<0.1
2
3
>5
Mitigation costs are given as area under the MAC and percent of total GDP (2010-2100)
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Special Issue Global Environmental Change Riahi and van Vuuren (eds.) (under preparation)
Narratives: O’Neill et al (accepted)
Population: KC & Lutz (accepted)
GDP: (1) Leimbach et al, (2) Dellink et al, (3) Crespo (accepted)
Urbanization: Jiang & O’Neill (accepted)
5 x SSP marker papers
Crosscut papers:
– Energy (Bauer et al)
– Land-use (Popp et al)
– Air Pollution/Aerosols (Rao et al)
Submission before Dec, 15! Planned finalisation April 16
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Next phase
SSP database
Scenario MIP
Climate Model output
Impact research
RCPs
Call for other teams to contribute
Strengthened database
Use in research projects
Use in other communities
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Questions?
21 januari 2016 19