st land use & transportation · 2015-10-19 · holtzclaw, using residential patterns and...
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21st Century Transportation in Convenient Communities Prof. Paul Okamoto’s Sustainable Design University of San Francisco 24 September 2014
Dr. John Holtzclaw Volunteer Lead, Sierra Club 21 C Transportation Campaign
[email protected] http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/
Land Use & Transportation ASHRAE Golden Gate Seminar
Sustainable Urban Housing San Francisco, 7 Oct 2015
Dr. John Holtzclaw [email protected]
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Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use SPRAWL TRANSIT
VILLAGE URBAN CENTER
METRO CENTER
San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco
Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200
Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994; Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989
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3 Hh/Res Acre (Courtesy City of Portland)
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San Francisco
North Beach
Paul and Tira
90 Hh/Res Acre Backyard, No parking
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San Francisco West of Union Square 3 x 4 block zone
7 live theatres, fine hotels, cafes and markets
1 to 36 stories, mostly 4 - 16 stories
467 - 536 Hh/Res Ac 15% of land residential
limited parking
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Traditional Development, San Francisco
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Urban vs. Sprawl Auto Use SPRAWL TRANSIT
VILLAGE URBAN CENTER
METRO CENTER
San Ramon CA Rockridge, North Beach, Manhattan Oakland CA San Francisco
Res. Density (hh/res. acre) 3.2 10 100 200
Holtzclaw, Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, 1994;
Newman and Kenworthy, Cities and Automobile Dependence, 1989
Transit (veh/hr nearby) 1 27 90 very high
Shopping (5 w/in 1/4 mi) no homes 25% of homes all homes all homes
Pedestrian amenities low medium high high
Autos/capita 0.79 0.66 0.28 0.12 Auto miles/capita 10,591 6,455 2,759 1,145 Ann. auto costs/capita $8,200 $5,030 $1,900 $800
www.sflcv.org/density
Housing sales prices $295/ft2 $407/ft2 $1,858/ft2 higher
Ann lbs CO2 emissions/capita 14,827 9037 3863 1603
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Americans drive more than others transportation = 1/3 GHG; 70% oil
Why? ►Hoover zoning codes - SFD, wide streets, off-
street pkg, no stores ►Sprawl subsidies: VHA, Fanny Mae, Freddie
Mac, mortgage deductions, redlining, sewers ►Interstates: bulldoze & divide communities,
traffic/pollution, access farmland
Impact: drive for every loaf of bread = hi VMT www.sierraclub.org/transportation, www.t4america.org http://bettercities.net/article/restoring-lifeblood-main-street-21194
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Location Efficiency Research
Location Efficient Mortgage
Institute for Location Efficiency
Center for Neighborhood Technology (Chicago) Natural Resources Defense Council
Surface Transportation Policy Project
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LEM Research Nearly 3000 neighborhoods (TAZs) Chicago, LA and San Francisco metro areas How do: densities (3 measures) shopping proximity public transit ped/bike (grid, short, narrow, sidewalks, setbacks) family income family size impact: vehicles (census data) VMT (odometer readings from smog checks -- total driving, not just commutes)
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Driving vs Residential Density
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0 50 100 150 200
Households/Residential Acre
Ann
ual V
MT/
Hh
SFLAChicago
0- 5 Hh/RA = sprawl
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Auto Mileage, Density & Stage of LifeMTC's 1990 Houehold Travel Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Households/Residential Acre
Dai
ly H
ouse
hold
Mile
age
Single Adults
Adults, kids <16
Adults, kids 16-21
Retired
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Driving vs Density by Household SizeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions
<2 pop/hh2-4 pop/hh
>4 pop/hh
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Households/Residential Acre
Ann
ual V
MT/
Hh
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Driving vs Density by IncomeChicago, Los Angeles & San Francisco regions
Poor (<$30K)
Middle IncomeWealthy (>$60K)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0 20 40 60 80 100Households/Residential Acre
Ann
ual V
MT/
Hou
seho
ld
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Annual Household Driving – San Francisco
VMT per Household875 - 50005001 - 1000010001 - 1500015001 - 2000020001 - 2500025001 - 3000030001 - 43000
Household Mileage
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Veh/Hh, VMT/Veh and VMT/Hh in metropolitan San Francisco
( ) 2336.0$
000112.03471.0
312.600519.111520.22722.42386.1
−
−−
+
+
−
+= Tr
HPe
RAH
HhVeh P
( )
−−−
+
+=
−
22136$01743.00704.0102759.015041.0103860419.0
PPed
HP
TAH
VehVMT
VMTHh
VehHh
VMTVeh
= ×
For the 3 metropolitan areas, the R2 = 79 – 96% for Veh/Hh and 80 – 94% for VMT/Hh.
H/RA is Households/Residential Acres, H/TA is Households/Total Acre, $/P is Income/Capita,P/H is Persons/Hh, Tr is Zonal Transit Density and Ped is Ped/Bicycle Friendliness
Reported in: John Holtzclaw,* Robert Clear, Hank Dittmar, David Goldstein and Peter Haas,Location Efficiency: Neighborhood and Socio-Economic Characteristics Determine Auto Ownershipand Use---Studies in Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Transportation Planning and Technology,Vol. 25(1),pp 1-27, March 2002. http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/online/0308-1060.html
Also reported at http://www.sierraclub.org/sprawl/transportation/holtzclaw-awma.pdf
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0 300 600 900
450
300150
2
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
An
nu
al
VM
T/H
ou
seh
old
Zonal Transit Density
Hh/Res Acre
Impact of Density and Transit on DrivingSan Francisco Bay Area
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Collateral Benefits of Compact Development
Saving building materials,
heating & cooling energy, and water cuts energy use and pollution
(Phillips & Gnaizda, CoEvolution Quarterly, Summer 1980)
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0 1 2 3 4 5
heat, cool home
driving
autos
lumber
pipe, wiring
The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl
Relative Impacts
urban infill (100 units/res acre) sprawl
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0 10 20 30 40
Relative Impacts
water
land; species
pavement
The Costs of Sprawl:Urban Infill vs Suburban Sprawl
urban infill (100 units/res acre) sprawl
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Courcelles (6 & 7 story curb-to-curb apartments) of Paris, just N of the Arc de Triomphe had lowest annual measured heat/cool energy demand (5:1) of any urban or suburban neighborhood in London, Paris, Berlin or Istanbul. (US sprawl~10:1 ) (LSE: Feb 2014) http://www.salon.com/2014/04/06/suburbias_climate_change_nightmare_the_devastating_cost_of_surviving_winters_wrath/?source=newsletter%
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Street Packing
Streetsblog.org 4 June 2013
Bikes & drivers
Cars & drivers
Get thee to a bus
Want to consume lots of space? Drive!
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Dens, m-u, prox, transit, ped & protected bike lanes NYC
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Dens, prox, m-u, ped & bike, trans, vibrant, parking curbed Times Square, NYC
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Den, m-u, prox, vibrant streets, shopping WalkScore = 95
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3 5
11 11 11
22
16
22 21 22 22 23 24
16
25
0.5
1
1 1 2
2
8
3 4 4
9 9
10
18
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
Perc
ent o
f tri
ps b
y cy
clin
g an
d w
alki
ng
Walking Cycling
Share of Trips by Cycling and Walking
Source: Pucher and Buehler, City Cycling, MIT Press, 2012
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Bicycle share of trips and
percentage of female cyclists in large cities
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Cyclist and Pedestrian Fatality and Injury Rates
1.1 1.6 1.6
3.3
5.5
1.6 1.5
4.7
5.7
33.5*
1.6 2.3
1.9
3.6
9.7
1.3 1.3
2.4
3.3
13.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
NL DK GER UK USA
Fata
lititi
es a
nd in
juri
es p
er tr
ip a
nd p
er k
ilom
eter
Cylists killed per 100 million km cycled
Cylists injured per 10 million km cycled
Pedestrians killed per 100 million km walked
Pedestrians injured per 10 million km walked
Cyclist and Pedestrian Fatality and Injury Rates
courtesy Pucher and Buehler (eds): City Cycling
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Source: World Health Organization (2008) and OECD Transport Research Centre (2006)
Why Traffic Calming Saves Lives
Speed kills!
Speed kills!
Courtesy John Pucher
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Dens, m-u, prox, ped, transit, activity, parking curbed High Line NYC