Some potential case studies to talk about for

the population topic in the exam

• Stage 2 (High but steady birth rate (br) and falling death rate (dr) ) of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) in 1980.

• The br began to fall by the end of the 1990s as education was slowly improving, more healthcare workers were becoming accessible to discuss family planning and contraceptives.

• However, HIV/Aids epidemic caused an influx in the dr and stopped Sub-Saharan Africa from progressing through the DTM.

• Therefore, this is a good example of how some countries didn’t follow the DTM because a natural disaster/or disease epidemic could occur, this is because the DTM shows how countries develop as a result of industrialisation.

Sub Saharan AfricaChanging population structure

• In 1979-1989 18 million babies were born which meant a quarter of the population was 15 years or under in 2006, this is called a youthful population. Reasons for the baby boom was the encouragement of economic growth resulting as more young people were provided with skills and opportunities to become economic productive agents.

• There was a possible danger of another baby boom due to so many young people. But another problem is the potential of an ageing population due a longer life expectancy in the large numbers of young people. Therefore the healthcare system may be drained and resources may not be sufficient for everyone. Rural to urban migration from Afghanistan meant that the population increased further.

• Country became aware that improvements in family planning needed to be considered . So solutions to this are free contraception, compulsory sex education classes. In 1993 the government decided to pass a family planning law that encouraged couples to have fewer children by restricting maternity leave benefits after three children.

• There is also strong support from religious leaders that encourage smaller families and the media was told to raise the awareness of population issues and family planning programmes.

Iran – Baby BoomChanging Population Structure

• Stage 5 of DTM with low birth rate and ageing population. In recent years the birth rate has been falling rapidly. This is partly due to the close family structures so young Italians have stayed at home longer than other young Europeans.

• This has been reinforced due to full time education making the young more dependent on their parents. Housing prices have risen so it has made it difficult for young adults to set up their own home. Also fewer well paid but low-skill jobs than before, and state benefits/allowances for families and children are much lower than in most other EU countries.

• Developing policies has been suggested by Italian commentators to the government to achieve sustainability and keep a balanced structure of workers by:

• Grants in education for young people to empower them. • Managing immigration by selecting new migrants to match labour force

vacancies. • Also, allowing access to citizenship rights for migrants and encouraging them

to settle and start a family.

Italy’s Falling Birth Rate

• Optimum Population – pptn at which the quality of life for people in a country/region is the highest possible at the level of technological development.

• Overpopulation – when any increase reduces the average quality of life for a population.

• Under-population – when an increase could increase the average quality of life for a population.

Over and Underpopulation

• In 1798, he came up with the theory that population growth will lead to famine. But if ‘people showed moral restraints’ then a decreasing population would result.

• This was due to his theory that population grows at a geometrical rate whilst the food supply would grow at an arithmetic rate e.g. pptn growth: 1, 2, 4, 8 etc.

food supply growth 1, 2, 3, 4 etc.• However, his predictions didn’t come true because in the 19th

century there was an agricultural revolution, increased trade which diversified the available food, also he didn’t predict people would emigrate to Europe in search of new territories such as North America and Australia.

ModelsMalthus - Pessimist

• In 1965 her theory was put forward explaining that Malthus’s ideas hadn’t proved to be true. She said an increase in pptn acted to stimulate changes in agricultural methods used.

• In primitive agricultural societies it had led to reductions of fallow periods, increased use of manure and fertiliser, irrigation and harvesting several crops each year. These methods were set to increase the production intensity to support the increasing pptn.

• Therefore, the Green Revolution which took place in the less developed parts of the world from 1950s onwards, shows how science created genetically modified crops that are resistant to drought/flooding to increase food productivity.

ModelsBoserup - Optimist

• Said the ultimate resource was the human brain to think up alternatives to the finite resources that are running out, to invest time and money in more extraction of what’s available, to manage without a resource with alternative ways. Possible alternatives are already being used for example, due to petrol declining, biofuel or electric cars could be used instead, finding fossil fuel alternatives as well are being thought about.

• So he thinks that population growth isn’t a problem but just finding alternatives for the depleting resources is an issue that only the brain can discover. However, some countries are already running out and development is difficult for poorer countries so they won’t be able to extract alternatives.

ModelsSimon - Optimist

• It is currently the most influential model and was a computer-based stimulation of future development of the world’s population, findings were published in 1972 as ‘The Limits to Growth’.

• It was built specifically to investigate five major trends of global concern – accelerating industrialisation, rapid pptn growth, widespread malnutrition, depletion of non-renewable resources and a deteriorating environment.

• Say population growth will lead to resource limits being reached in the next 100 years. They believe that industry will collapse and everything with it, because each part of society is interdependent on each other. So trends will have to interact with each other to benefit society.

• They came up with some solutions these being:- To establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that’s sustainable far into

the future.- The state of equilibrium needs to be reached and each person needs to be satisfied and

have equal opportunities.

ModelsClub of Rome - Pessimist

• Immigration has been a dominant trend for nearly 200 years, during this time, migrants have entered the country from many parts of Europe and west Africa etc. 55% immigrants came from New York, California, Florida and Texas in 1995.

• This was because of the location of existing immigrant communities and the availability of employment. In 1965 an act was passed to set an annual limit of 120,000 people from the western hemisphere and 170,000 from the eastern hemisphere. These quotas raised by 40% in 1990 and a considerable influx of migrants took place. In 1996-97 more than 5 million immigrants arrived, native Americans argued that they were taking jobs that should be theirs and other were concerned about racial tensions and the impact on the welfare system.

• In 1997, 25% of California pptn were born outside the USA and in LA proportion was 40% outsiders. However, these immigrants are willing to work longer hours in unwanted jobs, which are often in the informal sector – cash in hand so they don’t pay taxes which may cause conflict, 33% less tax paid by them during a lifetime.

• The number of border security guards increased with Mexico and asylum rules were tightened so it was harder for illegal immigrants to become legal. But, a benefit for the economy is having a highly educated immigrant in there early 20s so they offer more.

Economic Migration - USA

• In 2007, they were named the world’s fastest growing city. They are known for attracting wealthy people and lots of migrants. In the UAE 10 million migrants make up 90% of the workforce and in Dubai that has a pptn of 1.5 million, 1 million are migrants.

• As Dubai’s oil reserves are declining the ruling family, Maktoums wanted to invest in their wealth and become the best city, so they created lots of long term building projects, many migrants have seen the opportunity of earning some money and are also attracted by the city life, it claims to pose. Earning $4 a day, migrants often send this back to their home country, these impoverished places include India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh etc.

• Migrants have to pay for their travel to Dubai and on arrival their passports are confiscated while they’re on contract and exit visas can’t be obtained without approval of sponsor or employer. The workers’ camps are remote and cramped constructed in the desert adding to long 12-hour shifts and journeys to and from the construction sites. There are also many accusations of discrimination violence at the hands of employers, police and security forces including sexual assaults of women. There were 84 known suicides said to be migrants in 2006.

• Policies to prevent this mistreatment of migrants are visits from civil servants to listen to the complaints and to demand better working conditions and wages, but sometimes they order the employers to pay compensation.

Economic Migration Dubai, UAE

• Following the end of World War II Germany was split into two countries – east and west. West Germany was capitalist and supported by the USA and western EU countries so they became a powerful economic force. They had large resources of coal and developing industries of steel, chemicals, engineering, electronics and so on, therefore, standards of living were high.

• East Germany was almost the opposite being communist and supported by former Soviet Union which became reliant on out-dated heavy industries, therefore living standards were lower and although employment wasn’t a problem, people received state housing and individual enterprise and initiative was discouraged.

• During the 1960-70s rapid economic growth led to labour shortages in West Germany, so the government encouraged migration from East Germany, but in 1963, East Germany built the Berlin Wall to separate East and West Berlin. The pull of the West Germany attracted workers from many other countries including unemployed building workers from the UK and over 2 million from Turkey. By the 1980s E.Germany residents were migrating to other East EU countries such as Czechoslovakia and then crossed the border into W.Germany.

• There were mass protests in E.Germany so the communist government collapsed and the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, and the split countries were reunited. Many old factories in E.Germany were closed and deemed as too polluting, Germany is still divided but there’s been a big development in some parts of the east, but others still suffer from unemployment and poor housing.

Economic Migration - Germany

• The aim was to move millions of Indonesians from the densely populated inner islands (java, Bali, Madura) to the less densely populated outer islands and achieve a balanced demography.

• The scheme involved transportation to a new settlement in a less populated area of the country provided by the government. In addition a house and farming plot were provided, together with basic infrastructure and a living allowance to support them for the first 18 months.

• Also it was introduced to try and alleviate poverty by giving them land and new opportunities for poor landless settlers to generate income. The government wanted to exploit the potential of the outer islands more effectively.

• Financial support from bilateral donors and the World Bank helped boost the policy, and it was no longer possible for forced transmigration because it was damaging to the indigenous communities in receiving areas to those Javanese peasants who had to move out after loss of land to development.

• Outer islands contain 10% of the world’s remaining rainforest and transmigration led to deforestation and there was a political agenda to control the indigenous pptn. The expansion of the programme raised concerns about the environment and human rights. It violated customary land rights and was aimed at the forced assimilation of indigenous people and forest dwellers.

• Moreover it caused and economic disaster with the cost of average resettlement being US$7000 per family in the mid-1980s therefore increasing a national debt and failed to meet the goals of alleviating poverty but instead redistributed it. There was also inadequate planning and site preparation for the transmigrants so access of markets and neglect of the soil and water was poor for a prosperous agricultural economy.

• Government relied on exploitation of natural resources – logging, mining, industrial timber etc. to generate revenue. So if this continues demand for labour will increase, fuelling a new migration policy.

Transmigration in Indonesia

Tyneside, Newcastle

Byker Ward – Inner City

Houses were built for the workers from the port, shipbuilding and engineering industries that ran along the riverside. In the 1960s Byker ward primarily consisted of rows of small terraced houses dating from the late 18th century to the early 19th century. There was a development as the high-rise Byker Wall was built this consisted of 620 flats that is said to look like the superstructure of the ships that used to be built on the banks by the river.

This new housing scheme was implemented to rehouse many people from this area. Some others were moved out to new council estates on the edge of the city. Many of the original inhabitants were wealthier so they could afford to buy their own homes, therefore they moved out and were replaced by those in need of social housing. In the last few years this has included second-generation migrants even asylum seekers but the majority of the population is still made up of white Newcastle people.

Longhorsely – Rural-Urban Fringe

In the 1950s it was a successful farming village as there were a number of small holdings and around 500 inhabitants, majority worked in agriculture. However many of these farms have gone in order to make room for more housing. Former farmer buildings have been converted but a lot of reconstruction was needed, involving replacement of windows with double glazed and converting the chimney for central heating to make the houses more habitable. Also council estates house agricultural workers. As 20% only rent houses this suggests that there is a lower number of unemployed people or people with low paid jobs.

Changes in urban areas and the implications for social welfare

• A remote rural district where population is considerably older than country as a whole because of popularity of retirement. Mainly a dormitory function in the villages so there are very few jobs. Therefore, out-migration of young adults occurs in search of economic opportunities and lower-cost housing.

• Most housing is owner-occupied so rent is uncommon in these areas. There have been two housing developments built but they didn’t meet the rising demand. There has also been a decline in services such as general produce shops – 3 out of 4 villages don’t have a general store, 38 post offices have closed since 1991, 35 petrol stations closed as well.

• The general stores have declined because many people commute to use larger supermarkets that have better deals for what you buy. Also schools have closed because there isn’t enough children. Also, the houses are 2nd homes and tourist properties owned by wealthy people.

• Public transport is limited in this district too but doctor surgeries and village halls have risen because of the larger proportion of older people in comparison to young adults, these accommodate for them holding bingo sessions and doctors have increased to meet the needs of elderly people who are more likely to suffer from deteriorating health problems.

• Therefore, the lack of social welfare for young adults is outweighed by the larger numbers of old people.

Isle of Purbeck, DorsetChanges in rural settlements and implications for social welfare