stainless steel and nickel markets - · pdf file1 international nickel study group industry...

1

INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP

INDUSTRY ADVISORY PANELLisbon, Tuesday October 6 2009

STAINLESS STEEL AND NICKEL MARKETS:2009 OUTLOOK

STAINLESS STEEL AND NICKEL MARKETS:2009 OUTLOOK

DES ALLIAGES,DES MINERAIS ET DES HOMMES.

NICKEL

1)

THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET:

PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION

Source: Eramet Ni Research 2

2

THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET: PRODUCTION BY ZONE

Asia: China

-Amazingly, Chinese stainless steel production went from a low point in November 2008, when mills were operating at 30 % of their capacities, to a Q2 2009 where quarterly production surpassed the levels of Q1 and Q2 in 2008.-Given an increase in stocks of stainless steel (stocks at Foshan and Wuxi were back to the level of May 2008), we have assumed a correction starting in September.Chinese output is forecast at 8 3 MT +15 9% vs 2008

NICKEL

8 000

10 000

Stainless steelproduction in

Stainless steel in China

2 400

June 09 Forecast September 09 Forecast2008 2009

7.1 M t (-3.6%)

Quarterly Stainless Steel production in China

8.3 M t (+15.9%)

-Chinese output is forecast at 8.3 MT, +15.9% vs. 2008. -Our forecast is at the low end of the range of forecasts made by other analysts.


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

2009F

' 000

MT

production inChina (melted)

Import Chine

Export Chine

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

' 000

T

-21%

-25%

+56%

+18% -4% -16%


Asia: Taiwan / Korea / India / Japan

-The Taiwanese and Korean producers also benefited from the Chinese situation and returned to full production in Q3, (one quarter later than their Chinese competitors). We believe that production will decline in Q4, in line with the fall in apparent consumption in the Chinese market.-The Japanese producers maintained levels of production in the 2nd half of 2008 which were too high. As a consequence they still had high stocks in the early months of 2009 and drastically cut output in Q1. Capacity utilisation rates nevertheless increased significantly reaching 80-85% at the end of August Japanese

NICKELQuarterly Stainless steel production - Taiwan and Korea

900

1 000

June 09 Forecast September 09 Forecast

2008 2009

2.94 M t (-16.1%) 3.10 M t (+5.4%)

Quarterly Stainless steel production - Japan

950

1 050


2008 2009

3.49 M t (-8.1%) 2.51 M t (-28.0%)

utilisation rates nevertheless increased significantly reaching 80-85% at the end of August. Japanese producers are benefiting from the increase in Chinese apparent consumption, as well as an improvement in their own domestic demand.-For India we expect production this year to be similar to that in 2008, at 1.6 MT.


400

500

600

700

800

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

' 000

T

-16%

-39%

+20%

+44%

+15% -8%

350

450

550

650

750

850

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

' 000

T

-3%-29%

-39%+31%

+44%

+7%

3


Europe:- In the 1st half of the year, European mills produced at utilisation rates averaging 50%, due to very low apparent demand.- With the end of the de-stocking process, producers increased output in Q3, despite the summer shut-downs in July & August. In September utilisation rates went up between 75% and nearly 100% depending on the different mills.- For Q4 we have assumed utilisation rates in the region of 80%, which we think is cautious.- For the year, European production will be just below 6 MT, down 23% compared to 2008. Such a decline

NICKEL

2 200

2 400


Quarterly European Stainless steel production :

7.75 M t (-4.2%)

is unprecedented. (NB: European stainless steel production reached 9.25 MT in 2007).

5. 97 M t (-22.9%)


1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

' 000 T

-22%

-21%

-12%+13%

+19% +4%

USA:- As in Europe, US mills operated at very low utilisation rates during the 1st half of the year (below 50%),with very low consumption, following on from de-stocking by the Service Centers.- Q3 should show a significant turnaround (+46% versus Q2) as de-stocking comes to an end. Moreover, the US producers are also benefiting from much lower than usual imports (-56% at the end of April).- We have assumed that production in Q4 will be similar to that in Q3, which is around 80% of the level prior to the crisis.


NICKEL

600

700

800


2008 2009

-5%

1.92 M t (-11.6%)

Quarterly stainless steel production in the USA :

1.70 M t (-11.2%)


200

300

400

500

600

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

' 000

T

5%

-23%

-35% +26% -7%

+46% +2%

4

THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET: QUARTERLY PRODUCTION

After the catastrophic 2nd half of 2008, apparent demand in China recovered more strongly and more quickly than anticipated, enabling Chinese and other Asian producers to significantly increase their production. We believe that a correction will take place in the Chinese market during Q4, which will have repercussions on neighbouring countries.

In Europe and in the US, production remained very low in the 1st half of the year, but with the ending of the de-stocking process, production is on the increase and we have assumed utilisation rates of 80% for Q4.

NICKEL

7 000

8 000


Quarterly Stainless steel production :

26.0 M t (-7.4%) 24.3 M t (-6.6%)

+12%-4%mainly Asie

Mainly in Europe-USA-Japan Correction in the Chinesemarket

-1%

-18%


4 000

5 000

6 000

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

' 000 T

+11%

+19%

-26%

l d i

THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET: ANNUAL PRODUCTION

After 2007, which was virtually stagnant and 2008 which was down by 7.4%, stainless steel production should reach 24.3 MT this year, a decrease of 6.6%.This decrease is however significantly lower than what was feared a few weeks ago (below 23 MT, a double digit decrease in % compared to 2008).

NICKEL

+17%

-7,3%

+0,7%

Annual stainless steel production :

5

10

' 000

KT

Asia (excluding China)

RoW

EuropeChina

23,7 23,9

28,1

24,326,0

27,9

25

30

35

' 000

kT

Forecast June 09 September 09 Forecast

+1%

+17%-7,4%+0,7%

-6,6%


+8%

+1%

-9,9%

02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F

21,9 22,8

202003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

F

+8%

With 34% of the world’s production, China will become the world’s largest producer of stainless steel in2009, ahead of all the European producers combined and ahead of a combination of Taiwan+Korea+Japan+India.

5

THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET: STOCK VARIATIONS

From the beginning of the 2nd half of 2008 until the end of the 1st quarter 2009, we estimate a worldwide de-stocking(stainless steel producers, distributors and end users) of more than 2 MT.

Such stock variations are exacerbating the fluctuations in apparent demand, making the downturns and upturns even more pronounced.

In Europe and in the US, we estimate that stainless steel stocks are still at a low level, whereas some re-stocking has already taken place in Asia and particularly in China (stocks at Wuxi and Foshan above the peak of May 2008)

NICKEL Distributor stocks: Foshan et Wuxi(In ‘000 MT)

May 2008)

US distributor stocksSS Monthly inventory - historical data in '000 MT

650

700

750

800

153152

174

164

150

200

foshan total

Wuxi total


200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec Ja

nFe

bM

arAp

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

58 57

81

93

123

141

116

111

87

101

111 112

9491 88

99

68 6770

74 73 71

8490

8482

78

95

119123

133125

133129

75

118

120

140

50

100

150

dec 07

janv-08

févr-08

mars-08

avr-08

mai-08

juin-08

juil-08

août-08

sept-08

oct-08

nov-08

déc-08

janv-09

févr-09

mars-09

avr-09

mai-09

juin-09

juil-09

août-09

Based on our different assumptions (production, stocks, flow of imports and exports in the various geographic areas), real worldwide stainless steel consumption is forecast to fall by 10.8% this year, following on from a fall of 2.5% in 2008.Only China will enjoy an increase (6.1%).Excluding China, real worldwide consumption of stainless steel will decline by 18.4% this year, with particularly significant falls in Japan (-27.1%), the US (-25.4%) and Europe (-23.7%).

THE STAINLESS STEEL MARKET: REAL CONSUMPTION

NICKEL2007 2008 2009

Real stainless steel consumptionChinaEuropeUSA

+10.8%+2.1%+0 7%

+6,7%-5,3%11 8%

+6,1%-23,7%25 4%


USAJapanFar East

World

World excluding China

+0.7%-2.0%+6.3%

+5,0%

+2.4%

-11.8%-15.9%+0.5%

-2,5%

-6.2%

-25.4%-27.1%-5.6%

-10.8%

-18.4%

6

NICKEL

2)

NICKEL CONSUMPTION


REAL CONSUMPTION OF NICKEL IN STAINLESS STEEL: STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION BY GRADE

- According to our estimates the 300 series will regain 4.1 points in market share compared to last year, to reach 62.5%. This market share is however still significantly lower than the levels at the beginning of the decade.-The market share of the 200 series has stopped growing and has stabilised around 13.5%.The increase in the nickel price could however revive interest in this grade of steel, particularly in China. - The 400 series was the most effected by the crisis..

NICKEL

58,457,7

65,0

63,467,972,7

74,9

62,5

40 0

60,0

80,0%

3 0 0 ser ies( 8 % N i)

Stainless steel production by grade


13,913,311,09,69,05,53,0

13,4

22,1 21,823,1 26,6

24,029,0 27,7

24,1

0,0

20,0

40,0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2 0 0 ser ies( 1- 4 % N i)

4 0 0 ser ies( 0 % N i)

7

REAL CONSUMPTION OF NICKEL IN STAINLESS STEEL: THE SCRAP RATIO

The decline in the scrap ratio has been confirmed this year. We have revised our estimate to 41.2% (from 43.6% in our June publication).

Scrap ratio in stainless steel

NICKEL

47,646,7

46,347,1

46

47

48%

Scrap ratio in stainless steel

Good availability of scrap until Q3 2008 -Scrap generation will be limited, in line with the decline in industrial output.-The countries where the scrap ratio is the highest (USA & Europe) will be those where stainless steel production is expected to fall the most. On the other hand China which has a low ratio, will represent 34% of world production in 2009 (27.3% in 2008)


41,240

41

42

43

44

45

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2008).- Some stainless steel producers disposed of their surplus stocks of ferro chrome at the beginning of this year, which has limited their scrap consumption.

950

REAL CONSUMPTION OF NICKEL IN STAINLESS STEEL

Despite the decline in stainless steel production worldwide (-6.6%), the revival in the austenitic share (particularly the 300 series) coupled with the fall in the scrap ratio, has enabled real consumption of primary nickel in stainless steel to increase by 9.7%, compared to the low point in 2008.

Real consumption of nickel in stainless steel

250

juin-09 sept-09

2008 2009

NICKEL

803

732748

820

792

892

690

651683

781

681650

750

850

KT

Secondary Ni

Primary Ni

-11.2%

-7.5%+9.7%

150

200

250

' 000

T -21%

-25%

+22%

+22%

+10%

-9%


563

5502004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Secondary Ni

100Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

2009:Stainless steel production: -6.6% versus 2008Austenitic share: 75.9%, +3.6 points versus 2008300 series: 62.5%, +4.1 points versus 2008Scrap ratio: 41.2%, -5.9 points versus 2008Consumption of primary nickel in stainless steel: +9.7%

8

REAL CONSUMPTION OF NICKEL IN STAINLESS STEEL

Consumption varies significantly from one area to another: real consumption of primary nickel in stainless steel is expected to grow by more than 35% in China and by more than 30% in the Far East, whereas in Europe we expect it will fall by more than 15%.

NICKEL2007 2008 2009

Real consumption of primary nickel in stainless steelChinaEuropeUSA

+46.7%-26.1%31 8%

-1,2%-1,7%2 0%

+35,5%-16,9%+13 8%


USAJapanFar East

World

-31.8%-9.5%-33.8%

-11,3%

-2.0%-18.5%-14.2%

-7,5%

+13.8%-15.3%+32.1%

+9.7%

REAL CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY NICKEL (NON STAINLESS STEEL)

The non stainless steel sectors, which held up relatively well in 2008, have now been effected by the crisis, including the nickel alloys sector which relies heavily on investment spending. The plating sector has been particularly badly affected.

2007 2008 2009

Ni alloys 4,3% 5,1% -10,1%

Ferrous metallurgy 5,7% 4,5% -12.1%

NICKEL

162

180

143

164171

127119117

122

150

200Ni alloys

Ferrous

PlatingCoinage

O thers

Plating 6,7% -3,9% -17,6%

Coinage -4,3% -9,1% -7,0%

Others 6,8% -1,1% -9,7%

Total non stainless 5,2% 0,9% -11,8%


104 105 111

84

117 103117

100

25 23 22 20 19

8088 94 93

0

50

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

KT

9

REAL CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY NICKEL

The non stainless steel sectors, which cushioned the fall in the real consumption of primary nickel in 2007/2008, are having the reverse effect this year.As a consequence real consumption of primary nickel in all sectors is forecast to reach 1,271 kt this year, a modest increase compared to 2008 (+0.7%).

By sector of activity By area

NICKEL

y y

748820

792892803

1236 12181391

1317

1262 1271

900

1200

1500

KT

Inox

total

250

500

'000

MT

EUROPE

CHINA

JAPAN

y

-11.2%

-7.6% +9.7%

-5.3%

-4.2% +0.7%


732

416

530525499

470468

300

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

non inox

02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

KOREA NORTH AMERICA

TAIWAN

INDIA

After stagnating in 2008, China’s real consumption is back with a strong growth rate this year (+21%). With real consumption estimated at 425 kt for this year, China will represent more than 1/3rd of the primary nickel consumed worldwide, to become the largest consumer, ahead of all the European countries combined.

+5.2% +0.9% -11.8%

APPARENT CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY NICKEL

Chinese imports have been very strong in the first half of the year, reaching extremely high levels in in June & July, out of all proportion to real consumption. Imports went down in August, although remaining at a substantially higher level than the 2008 monthly average (around 14 kt / month). As of the end of August, imports of nickel metal amounted to 188 kt, compared to 118 kt for the whole of 2008. For FeNi, imports at the end of August (46.2 kt) represented 2.8 x that imported in the whole of 2008 (16.3 kt).

NICKEL

Monthly imports of nickel in China (excluding feed for Chinese nickel production)

40

50

60

Ni

2008 2009


0

10

20

30

in t,

net

N

Jan

March

May July

Sept

Nov Jan

March

May July

OthersFeniNi metal

10

With extremely high imports (especially in June/July), apparent consumption in China already exceeds real consumption by 90 kt – 95 kt.Even if there was to be a major slow down in imports for the remainder of the year, Chinese apparent consumption will exceed real consumption by 80 kt. Part of this re-stocking is justified by the need for increased working stocks for the stainless steel mills (about 20 kt). The balance (about 60 kt) can be considered as surplus.

Q1 Q2 Q3 (est) Q4 (est) 2009 (est)


NICKEL

Estimated Chinese real demand

100.4 115.5 111.0 97.8 424.8

Estimated domestic production

50.1 61.4 62.9 59.9 234.3

Imports(excluding feed for domestic production)

52.5 108.0 100.0 42.0 302.5


Exports 1.2 1.4 14.0 15.0 31.6

Estimated Chinese apparent demand

101.4 168.0 148.9 86.9 505.2

Apparent – real(stocking if +, de-stocking if -)

1.0 52.5 37.9 -10.9 80.5

All numbers in kt


In 2008 apparent consumption of primary nickel fell by far more than real consumption (-8.7% vs. -4.2%), as most stainless steel producers reduced their stocks.Contrary to last year, due to the re-stocking taking place in China, apparent consumption of primary nickel should exceed real consumption (+7.3% vs. +0.7%).

NICKEL

2007 2008 2009

Real consumption of primary Ni in SS and non SS

1317 kt-5.3%

1262 kt-4.2%

1271 kt+0.7%

Primary Ni in scrap 4 kt 6 kt 6 kt

Consumers – distributorsstock variations China

+6.5 kt +4 kt +80.5 kt


Consumers – distributorsstock variations rest of the world

+44 kt -20 kt -15 kt

Total apparent consumption of primary Ni

1372 kt-0.7%

1252 kt-8.7%

1342.5 kt+7.3%

11

APPARENT/ REAL CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY NICKEL

1 450

NICKEL

1 250

1 350

1 450

'000

MT

Real consumption

Apparent consumption


1 1502004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NICKEL

3)

NICKEL SUPPLY


12

NICKEL PRODUCTION IN 2009According to our latest estimates, refined nickel production this year will fall by about 5.4%, to 1,302.2 kt (1376.5 kt in 2008, -74.3 kt).We have assumed that the strike at Vale Inco’s Canadian operations be over by the end of Q3, which is very uncertain.

Compared to 2008, only POSCO-SMSP and BHP+Yabulu will contribute significant additional tonnage.

1934

-75 -65 -55 -45 -35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35

B HP + Ya bul u

kt

NICKEL

g

In the case of BHP, 20 kt were lost in 2008 between the maintenance shutdown at Kalgoorlie in Q3, and the strike at Cerro in Q1.

We have significantly revised upwards our estimate of the NPI-NBF production, to 75 kt for 2009, from 48 kt in our previous Nickel Outlook.

Vale Inco’s output is severely affected by the combination of the maintenance shutdowns made in Q2 and by the strike at Sudbury / Voisey’s Bay, which has been ongoing since July We have assumed that the-2

-2-1

11123

78

19

-1

Ya k i n

Nor i l sk + H a r j a v a l t a

Our a l / Ot he r R ussi a

I mpa l a

Er a me t

M ina r a

S he r r i t t

P a mc o

A ngl o

NP I - NB F

Ot he r Chine se

P osc o


been ongoing since July. We have assumed that the strike will be over at the end of September, for which there is a large degree of uncertainty.

Xstrata will lose 19 kt with the stoppage of Falcondo.

Eramet is scheduled to produce 52 kt instead of the initially planned 62 kt.

-6-5-5-3-3-3

-62 -22-8-7

Va l e I nc o

Xst r a t a

P obuz k he

S M M

Bi ndur a

La r c o

C uba

A nt a m

Vot or a nt i m

J inc hua n

Nickel production increased again slightly in Q2, stimulated by the increase in nickel prices. Supplies of nickel should decrease in Q3, due to Vale Inco’s reduced output.We have assumed that that the strike will be over at the end of September. If however the strike continues, the impact will be around 10 kt/m.

NICKEL PRODUCTION IN 2009

NICKEL

360347

336 334

315

331

312

344

300

325

350

375

400

00 T

2008 2009

Quarterly refined nickel production (in kt)


200

225

250

275

300

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09

' 000

13

With energy (coke & electricity) prices and freight rates still at low levels, the rally in nickel prices has enabled NPI-NBF producers to become profitable again and ore imports have picked up significantly in June and July (1.7 MT &2.2 MT respectively). It seems that some stock build-up has occurred there too (stocks at ports are currentlyestimated at 9.7 MT, up from 7.6 MT in June).The current production costs of NPI 5% (produced in blast furnaces) are estimated at around $7.00/lb ($15,400/t),while those of NBF 10% (produced in electric furnaces) are estimated at around $6.50/lb ($14,300/t).We have therefore significantly up-graded our forecast for NPI-NBF production, from 48 kt in our previous forecast,to 75 kt.

NICKEL PRODUCTION IN 2009

NICKEL

Chinese imports of Ni ore

1500

2000

kt Ni ore import

Phil ippines

Indonesia

New Caledonia

200920082007 30

1820

2320

20

30

40

00 T

Estimates of quarterly NPI-NBF production

2006


0

500

1000

Jan

Mar

May

July

Sept

Nov jan

Mar

May

July

Sept

Nov

Janv

Mar

May

July

Sept

Nov Jan

Mar

Mai

July

18

128

12

0

10

20

Q1-08

Q2-08

Q3-08

Q4-08

Q1-09

Q2-09

Q3-09

Q4-09

' 00

NICKEL

4)

THE SUPPLY / DEMAND BALANCE


14

2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL

THE SUPPLY / DEMAND BALANCEOn top of the recovery in real demand, the very high levels of Chinese imports in Q’s 2 &3 are boosting apparent demand and the market is turning into relatively significant deficits for these 2 quarters, following a large surplus in Q1.For Q4 we have assumed a restart of Vale Inco’s Canadian operations, at the end of September.LME stocks remained fairly stable in Q’s 2 & 3, but we believe that nickel producer stocks decreased substantially, reverting to their pre-crisis levels. Part of their excess stocks has been transferred to China.

NICKEL

2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL2009

World supply 1 376.5 315.0 330.7 312.4 344.2 1 302.2

World real consumption 1 262.7 280.8 319.6 343.3 327.5 1271.2

World apparent consumption 1 252.4 272.7 367.9 380.2 321.6 1 332.4


BALANCE +124.1 +42.3 -37.2 -67.8 +22.6 -40.2

LME Stocks 78.8 107.8 109.6 118 115 +36.2

Ni producer stocks 287.0 300.3 261.3 185.1 210.7 -76.4

LME + prod stocks, in weeks of cons. 19.3 19.5 13.1 10.4 13.3 13.3

THE SUPPLY / DEMAND BALANCEBased on our assumptions, the market will be in deficit in 2009, by about 40 kt. However if the surplus Chinese stocks were to be “re-injected” into the balance, the market would be in a slight surplus (about +20 kt).

NICKEL

1

23

4232

30

58

85

33

051015202530354045505560657075808590

KT

20092007 2008

19,519,320

25

nsum

ptio

n

LME + Ni producer stocks

2007 2008 2009

Supply / Demand by quarter Stocks by quarter

-40 KT+61 KT +124 KT


-9

-68

-37

-90-85-80-75-70-65-60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

K

13,110,4

13,312,1

9,48,89,68,6

6,66,1

5

10

15

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

in w

eeks

of c

on

15

THE SUPPLY / DEMAND BALANCE

According to our scenario, LME and nickel producer stocks should be close to the bar of 10 weeks of consumption at the end of Q3.

Stocks in weeks of Average annual

NICKEL

10

15

20

10

15

20

consumption(LME + producer stocks)

gprices in $/lb(Settlement)


0

5

10

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E

2009endofQ3

0

5

10Current price

QUESTIONS FOR DEBATE

The Chinese nickel restocking:Opportunistic or strategic ?Whom do these stocks really belong ?How long to digest those surplus stocks ?On the domestic market or through exports ?

NICKEL

On the domestic market or through exports ?

The nickel pig iron production: what level ?

Can Europe / USA / Japan make it up for the expected slowdown of Chinese imports ?

Length of the VALE INCO strike ?


2010: what scenario for stainless steel production ?Non stainless steel sectors: what can we expect ?

stainless steel and nickel markets - · pdf file1 international nickel study group industry...

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