standardizing juvenile recidivism research: maine's ... · ycurrent practices in recidivism...
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Maine's Experience Working with an Emerging Framework
Becky NoréusJustice Policy ProgramUSM Muskie School of Public Service October 28, 2010
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Recognizing the importance of recidivism as a measure of success, the Council for Juvenile Correctional Administrators (CJCA), with Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency (OJJDP) support, developed 3 goals of recidivism research:1. Reduce re-offending2. Increase support for evidence-based programs3. Support continuous quality improvement efforts
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“All across the country, juvenile justice agencies are judged to be successful or not based on recidivism rates…”
Stoodley, B. (2010). To Measure or not to Measure? The Recidivism Dilemma’. American Correctional Association.
Recidivism is a standard measurement without standardized definitionso This limits national research and complicates comparisons or
replications of studies
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Current practices in recidivism measuremento Recent published state recidivism reportso CJCA state survey data/CJCA Yearbook 2009o Current practices in evaluation research
Recommendations o Guide for recidivism research
Harris, P.W., Lockwood, B., & Mengers, L. (2009). A CJCA White Paper: Defining and Measuring Recidivism.
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Snyder and Sickmund(2006 p. 234)
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Probation/Paro
leViolatio
n
Petition (not on survey)
Arrest Petition or
Arrest
Adjudication
JuvenileCommitme
nt
Adult Commitme
nt
Other Multiple Measure
s
State Surveys (40)
7.5%(3)
5%(2)
28%(11)
28%(11)
48%(19)
48%(19)
45%(18)
60%(24)
Evaluations (53)
17%(9)
60.4%(32)
22.6%(12)
69.8%(37)
30.2%(16)
3.8%(2)
1.9%(1)
17%(9)
43.4%(23)
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<1 Year
1 Year
1.5 Year
s
2 Years
3 Years
> 3 Years
AverageMAXIMU
M Follow-up
Varied Other Multiple Follow-
up
State Surveys
(40)
15%(6)
60%(24)
5%(2)
37.5%(15)
37.5%(15)
15%(6)
2.2 years*
7.5%(3)
7.5%(3)
35%(14)
Evaluations (53)
20.8%(11)
34%(18)
7.5%(4)
24.5%(13)
5.7%(3)
18.9%(10)
2.6 years 34%(18)
1.9%(1)
28.3%(15)
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15 Standards for measuring recidivismo Specificity, clear definitions, o Multiple measures, o Youth offenses, characteristics
Three levels of data 1. Counts - Overall recidivism rate2. Population and offense detail – compare groups3. Risk assessment, program involvement – program evaluation
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Selection Criteria: First Adjudicated supervised youthData sources: MDOC’s CORIS (juvenile and some adult), MDPS (adult tracking)Tracking period: Three years from first adjudication dateRecidivism Event: Re-adjudication (juvenile)/re-conviction (adult)Timeframe: Date of re-offense datePopulation characteristics: gender, age, race, countyOffense Characteristics: Number, most serious class, most serious type - at first and second adjudicationRisk Levels – YLS-CMIThree years of data: 2006-2008 cohorts
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Targeting population o Currently track supervised first adjudicated youth o Discharged youth extract recently finalizedo Commitments and diversions
Standardso Definition of supervision, including release dateo Specific risk items
Processes o Finalizing extracts - ongoingo Tracking to adult – case by case
Program data
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2006 2007 2008 Percent Change
N % N % N %First Adjudicated youth 1480 1.1% 1258 0.9% 1246 0.9% -15.8%
Total Youth (ages 10-17)* 138,680 135,478 131,238 -5.4%
First adjudicated youth, 1%
Maine's youth population ages
10-17, 99%
First adjudicated youth as a percentage of total population, 2006-2008 average per year
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*Source =-OJJDP Easy Access to Juvenile Populations 1990-2008
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825736
656
1480
1258 1246
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2006 2007 2008
Supervised Total First Adjudicated YouthBecky Noréus – Muskie School of Public
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‘Average’ first adjudicated youth:o One offenseo Property o Misdemeanor
Populationo Minorities increasingly
representedo Boys more common
than girlso Average age remains
about 16, BUT fewer of youngest youth (under 14)
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2006 2007 2008
Recidivated 174 21.1% 195 26.5% 143 21.8%
Did not recidivate 654 79.3% 541 75.5% 513 78.2%
Total 825 100% 736 100% 656 100%Becky Noréus – Muskie School of Public
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21.10%
26.50%21.80%
2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort
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0.8% 2.1%4.5%
9.0%12.6%
19.0%
26.9%30.0%
13.5%
21.1%
31.4%
39.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Six MonthsOne Year Two Years Three YearsAdult Re-Conviction Juvenile Re-AdjudicatedTotal Recidivists
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20.1%
26.2%22.2%
36.0%
29.8%
18.2%
2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort
White Minority
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20.7%
24.7%
17.6%
24.3%
29.3%26.5%
2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort
PersonalProperty
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DJS policy: 100% of supervised youth administered YLS-CMI within the timeframe of 180 prior to 30 days post 1st
Adjudication
2006 2007 2008
YLS Completed 644 555 517
Total First Youth and Placed under supervision
825 736 656
YLS Completion Rate 78.6% 75.4% 78.8%
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YLS-CMI Completion rates, 2006-2008
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Guides case planningo High risk youth
benefit from higher level of supervision
Identify which youth are more likely to recidivate
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33.1% 29.7% 39.7%
54.0% 58.2% 47.8%
12.9% 12.1% 12.6%
2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort
Low (0-8) Moderate (9-22)High (23-42)
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8.5%12.7% 14.1%
27.9%32.2%
26.3%24.1%
38.8%
32.3%
2006 Cohort 2007 Cohort 2008 Cohort
One Year Recidivism Rate Trends by Risk Level, 2006-2008 cohorts
Low (0-8) Moderate (9-22) High (23-42)
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3.3%8.5%
17.8%23.9%
18.4%
27.9%
36.8%
45.1%
18.1%
24.1%
39.8%
53.0%
Six Months One Year Two Years Three Years
2006 Cohort, 3 Year Recidivism Trends
Low (0-8) Moderate (9-22) High (23-42)
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Continue efforts to align with CJCA guidelineso Variables and selection criteria
Expansion of Analysiso Discharged youtho Committed youtho Diverted youth
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Becky Noréus: [email protected] School of Public Service, Portland, Mainehttp://muskie.usm.maine.edu/justiceresearch/
To download the CJCA White Paper, please visithttp://cjca.net/resources/index/15
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