starmap/damars 9/10/04# 1 starmap year 3 n. scott urquhart starmap director department of statistics...
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STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 1
STARMAPYEAR 3
N. Scott UrquhartSTARMAP Director
Department of StatisticsColorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 2
STARMAP FUNDINGSpace-Time Aquatic Resources Modeling and Analysis
Program
The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenters and STARMAP, the Program they represent. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentation.
This research is funded by
U.S.EPA – Science To AchieveResults (STAR) ProgramCooperativeAgreement
# CR - 829095
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 3
TODAY’S
COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP
Background Comments Research Outputs
Publications/presentations Training – future generations of environmental statisticians
Extension/Outreach/Cooperation Meetings Learning Materials Recruiting
Plans for the year ahead Research Meetings
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 4
PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH - A FOCUS
EPA released the report, Response of Surface Water Chemistry to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004) Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003
Statistical techniques available for it wereseverely limited in several dimensions
Good illustration of tools we need to develop Used as presentation illustration STARMAP investigators are using
The context for model assumptions Data on which this report was based
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 5
PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 1
Combining/analyzing environmental data Bayesian methods
Extension of contingency table methods» Devin Johnson» Finished PhD, now at University of Alaska; continuing
Selection of spatial models – Andrew Merton Megan Dailey is starting work on this project Book on Computational Statistics
Spatial statistics Designing to estimate semivariograms – Kerry Ritter & Molly Leecaster How much spatial correlation in aquatic responses? - nsu Alix Gitelman (OSU) & graph methods
Originally under Project 2; work is closer to Project 1 Steve Jensen – short talk
Jennifer Hoeting (PI) will comment further
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 6
PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 2
Local Estimation/Survey Methods Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS Methods to improve survey summaries using
auxiliary information From design-based to model-based Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa State U
Ji-Yeon Kim and Gerda Claeskens Giovanna Ranalli = post doc, not here right now Two from cooperating fellows from Taiwan
Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang Progress on procedures for smoothing data from river networks
Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk Mark Delorey and Bill Coar
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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 3
Indicator Development GIS work & support is funded here SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS sampling
Will be reported at Monitoring Science and Technology conference week after next (Denver)
Good cooperation with Region 8 and Western Ecology Division
Erin Poston, who will give a talk tomorrow, is funded here. Dave Theobald (PI) will comment further
Promising GIS tools are under development and testing
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 8
PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 4
Extension/Outreach Urquhart (PI) I’ll return to this as next to the last major topic
Only opportunity to talk about outreach here
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 9
TRAINING - RESULTS
Governing RAF states “… cadre of graduates would be developed who would
have the expertise and experience in survey design and analysis needed to fill a gap in the expertise required to successfully monitor the condition of the Nation’s aquatic resources.”
Students & early career professionals Students
One PhD + 4 Masters completed 5 PhD, 4 stat + 1 landscape ecology 2 MS;
Early-career professionals - 8
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 10
PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
TRAINING: CONTINUED
Field experience Several + ongoing All toured past EMAP sites near OSU last year All had a tour of WED/EMAP last year
Visits to other EPA facilities Theobald & Poston interacted with personnel at
Region 8 recently All CSU students attended a meeting a Region 8 in
May of this year Gitelman will comment about her
interactions with Ken Reckhow later today.
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 11
OUTPUTS
Relevant statistical research in the form of Publications Worked examples in the “Case studies” part of the
learning materials
The Generalized Random Tessellation Stratifiedsampling process
Implemented correctly in ARCView
Prediction of probability of perennialness of stream traces Add to sampling procedure by end of Program
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 12
OUTPUTS in YEAR 3
PUBLICATIONS 9 professional publications – in print or accepted
Including a book
12 in various stages of submission and review 26 manuscripts in various stages of development
Presentations 37 completed 5 more by end of year 3 To a variety of audiences, domestic and international
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 13
OUTPUTS in YEAR 3continued
STUDENT PROGRESS PhDs
Four nearing completion Three Stat One geoscience
Masters Two completed this year
One @ CSU, one @ OSU Two more in progress
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 14
MEETINGS
Graybill Conference – success Proceedings will be published as an issue of
Environmental and Ecological Statistics Friendly outlet for young environmental statisticians
Topic contributed paper session at 2004 Joint Statistics Meetings – with the Chicago Center Success
Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium Two and a half days of sessions on statistical aspects of
monitoring Half day tutorial on GRTS sampling
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 15
MEETINGS - WHY?
TRAINING Provide opportunities for students to gain relevant
professional experience
DEVELOPMENT OF YOUNG ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS Early career environmental statisticians Gain stature in our discipline
OUTREACH/EXTENSION to Statistical community – Graybill Conference Users of statistics – Monitoring Science & Technology
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 16
RECRUITING
Post-doctoral fellows Modest success – will continue efforts Giovanna Ranalli was here for four months, and will
return in October Director will continue to be active in recruiting
Students for the CSU statistics graduate program In high school advanced placement statistics
We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas to recruit for future graduate students
Urquhart visited 8 AP classes in four high schools last year More visits are being arranged for next year
Developed some dynamic graphics for power and r2
Example
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 17
LEARNING MATERIALS
Jointly funded by STARMAP & DAMARS Browser based (web access NOT needed)
To be delivered via CD ROM Substantial opportunities for individualization
Perspective Senior administrator to Implementer to Researcher
Landscape setting
Evaluation & feedback - OSU test – was positive Evaluators – state, tribal & EPA regional Article in Tribal News
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 18
CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS
PROGRESS
Why Monitor? Draft completed and tested
Where to Monitor? (= GRTS-type sampling) Draft completed and tested
What to monitor = Indicators Nothing started on this yet
How to Monitor? (= Field Operations) EPA Field Operations Manuals Training videotaped in May for inclusion in this part We have PowerPoint presentations from training Student is working on this (MS)
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 19
CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS
PROGRESS(continued)
… How to summarize.
Student has started on this
Case studies Several current efforts will be turned into these
Distribution of completed materials Preliminary discussions with the Council of State
Governments have been very encouraging.
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 20
DYNAMIC ILLUSTRATION OF POINT LOCATION
Strahler order 1, 2 & 3represented by tracethickness
Relative probability byorder
First: 0.25 Second: 0.50 Third 1.00
Points appear in samplingorder
Slowly at first Then faster Loops back to first point
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 21
PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
Project 1 - continue present work Expand designs for spatial modeling Explore data resulting from San Diego study
Project 2 – continue developments Emphasize small area (local) estimation Potentially valuable for 305(b) => 303(d) reporting
Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS Apply tools to develop indicators Regional species richness
Outreach – continue development of cooperation Case studies Continue implementation & testing
At any suitable venue
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 22
ACCUMULATING AQUATIC SPATIAL DATA
How much spatial correlation really is present in aquatic responses, after accounting for habitat features? Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at this:
Streams in Virginia Ohio River – about 400 points Detroit River – 100 or so over short distance Estuaries – one in northeast Near coastal – San Diego Project
Discussed under Kerry Ritter’s presentation
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 23
FUTURE MEETINGS
Computational Environmetrics, October 21-23, 2004, in Chicago, Illinois Statistics and Environment Section of the American Statistical
Association (ASA) and The Center for Integrating the Statistical and the Environmental
Science (CISES) at the Department of Statistics, University of Chicago.
Three short courses – Jennifer Hoeting will be involved in two Jay Breidt & Devin Johnson are invited speakers
DAMARS/STARMAP in 2005 At Oregon State University Tentative dates: September 9 & 10, 2005 Advice – Content & Audience
STARMAP/DAMARS 9/10/04 # 24
FUTURE MEETING POSSIBILITIES
Special session for next year’s North American Benthological Society Meeting
Symposium on the interface between GIS and statistics Especially relevant as ArcGIS now has spatial statistics
components As distinct from its geostatistics modules Code is open and alterable Dave Theobald can say more about this possibility