state budget outlook multi-year trend analysis office of management and enterprise services november...
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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES
November 1, 2014*
Shelly Paulk
Revenue Analyst
*To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.
General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions
(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) Ave. 4.3% Growth
Ave. 6.5% Growth
Ave. 1.3% Growth
Ave. 5.1% Growth
Ave. 4.3% Growth
OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS
FY-2016 – FY-2017
SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS
JUNE BOE EST.
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year)
6.0% 4.6%
4.7%
10.6%
(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)
(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES)
0.5%1.1%
4.8%
ACTUALS Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax
Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding
4.7%
JUNE BOE ESTIMATE