state of renewable energy

8/14/2019 State of Renewable Energy

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State of Renewable Energy Danish Energy Seminar

Dirksen Senate Office Building Washington, DC November 14, 2006

Michael Eckhart, President American Council On Renewable Energy

www.acore.org


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Topics

1. ACORE2. Fundamental drivers3. Global perspective

Global Denmark China

4. US markets Key issues Windpower

Solar PV Biofuels

5. Outlook


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ACOREs 375 Members


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ACOREs Mission and ScopeMission: As a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organization:

to assume responsibility for the success of renewable energyin America

to bring renewable energy into the mainstream of Americaseconomy and lifestyle

to be for renewable energy and against nothing

ACORE encompasses all renewable energy options:- Solar energy - Biomass energy and fuels- Wind power - Geothermal energy- Hydropower / ocean - Waste-to-energy

In all forms of energy:- Electricity - End use thermal energy- Fuels - Hydrogen

Focusing on four strategic themes:- Markets - International

- Finance - Policy


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Finance

Renewable Energy Finance ForumWall StreetProduced with Euromoney at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York

June 21-22, 2007


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Trade

Great Wall Renewable Energy ForumBeijing, ChinaOctober 23-26, 2006

Executive Tours:

Pre: Wind Companies

Post: Solar Companies


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Policy Conference

Renewable Energy in America - Phase II November 29-30, 2006

Cannon Caucus Room, Washington, DC


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Topics


Global Denmark China

4. US markets Key issues Windpower

Solar PV Biofuels

5. Outlook


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World and US Oil DilemmaEnd of an Era Beginning of an Era

PEAK OIL

NATIONALSECURITY


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Environment and Climate ChangeEnd of an Era Beginning of an Era

Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)

A t m o s p

h e r i c

c o n c e n

t r a

t i o n

C O

2

( p p m

)

360

340

320

300

280

260

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20001000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Source:NREL

310

290

270

250

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Changes in Atmospheric Concentrations - 1000 Year History


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Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cost of energy in constant 2005$ 1

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)1

These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. November 2005.


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State of the Global RE Market160,000 MW Installed Growing at 25 GW/Year

020

40

60

80100

120

140

160

World DCs EU 25 US Japan

SolarGeothermalBiomass

WindpowerSmall Hydro

Plus:

720 GW Large Hydro

220 GW (th) BiomassHeating

28 GW (th) GeothermalHeating

77 GW (th) Solar Heating

1 GW of off-grid solar PV systems

NEW RENEWABLES2004 INSTALLED BASE (000 MW)

Source: Renewables 2005: Global Status Report


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Global Investment in Clean Energy2005: $48.9 Billion/year

$2.1bn*

VC/PE Publicmarkets

CorporateRD&D

GovtR&D

Technology & Equipment

$4.9bn*

$7.0bn

$6.0bn $20.0bn

Figures marked * are based on New Energy Finance Desktop databases; all other figures are industry estimatesbased on various sources. Source: New Energy Finance

Totalinvestment

Small-scaleprojects

Assetfinance

$21.9bn*

$7.0bn $48.9bn


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Green CertificatesFeed-in TariffsCapital grants, Tax relief Obligation

Tradable certificates

Leadership for Renewable EnergyEuropean Union Policies


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Topics


Global Denmark

China4. US markets

Key issues Windpower

Solar PV Biofuels5. Outlook


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Denmark Early Leader in Windpower


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Topics

1. ACORE

2. Fundamental drivers3. Global perspective

Global Denmark

China4. US markets




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ChinaNew Renewable Energy Law Effective 1-1-2006

Chinas Power Plan(Gigawatts)

Year Total RE2010 650 602020 950 120


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Following the Great Wall Conference in Beijing Tour of Chinese Solar CompaniesOctober 27-31, 2006


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Following the Great Wall Conference in Beijing Tour of Chinese Solar CompaniesOctober 27-31, 2006

Shanghai: TopSolar Green Energy Company Solar Energy Science & Technology

Wuxi: Suntech Solar Energy Company

Suzhou: Canadian Solar Inc.

Wuhan: Jingwei - solar thermal company Rixin Technology Co., Ltd.

Shenzhen: Jiawei Solar PV Co. Ltd. Sunshine Electronics Co. Ltd. Trony Solar Science & Tech Co., Ltd. Gianteam Solar Energy Co., Ltd.

Shanghai


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Chinese Solar PV Company

Shanghai Solar S&T Co, Ltd. 100 MW/year Modules 10 MW/year Cells


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Chinese Solar Water Heater Company


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Pollution Chinese Style


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The Challenge of Putting RE into Use- Regional Resources, Economics, and Politics -

Resource Potential

SOLAR ENERGY WIND POWER

GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS


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Renewable Portfolio Standards20 States + DC with RPS, + 2 with Goals

Non-punitive goals

PA:18% by 2020

*NJ : 6.5% by 2008

*CT: 4% by 2008

MA: 15% by 2020WI: 2.2% by 2011

IA: 105 MW

MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 2,880 MW by 2009*NM: 10% by 2011

*AZ: 1.1%by 2007

CA: 20%by 2017

*NV: 15% by 2013

ME: 30% by 2000

State RPS

Source: IREC, DSIRE Database

NY: 25% by 2013

MD: 7.5% by 2019

MT: 15% by 2015

CO: 10% by 2015

HI: 20% by 2020

DE: 20% by 2019

RI: 4% by 2008

DC: 11% by 2022

Prospects


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Topics

1. ACORE


Global Denmark

China4. US markets




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Wholesale Power Generation

US Wind Power

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sources: AWEA (actual) and ACORE (forecast)

US Wind Power Installations(MW/Year)

9,700 MW Installed Base 2005

Market Drivers:. Production Tax Credit. Renewable Portfolio Standard

35,000 MW estimated by 2015

InstalledRPS RequiredNew


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Per capita income in 1999

45,000

25,000

5,000

StatusCompleted

Proposed

SpeculativeUnder development

Location of US Windfarms


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Other Wholesale Power Generation

Geothermal, Hydropower, andSolar Thermal-Electric

2,000 MW Projects

Incremental hydro

Solar Dish-Sterling:850 MWContracts

Solar Trough:64 MWUnder Construction


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Topics

1. ACORE


Global Denmark

China4. US markets




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Solar PV


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Distributed Generation

World Solar PV Market

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1990 1995 2000 2005

GridOff-Grid

Sources: PV News and ACORE

Global Solar PV Production(MW/Year)

Annual Installations in 2005:

Germany: 750 MW/Year

Japan: 350 MW/Year

California: 100 MW/Year

Key Issue = Siliconshortage until 2008


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Distributed Generation

US Solar PV Market

Sources: PV News and ACORE

US Solar PV Installations(MW/Year)

Market Drivers:. US 30% tax credit needs extension. States with solar subsidies. Environmental ethic. California $3.2 Billion program

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Grid

Off-Grid


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US PV Market Driver #1

Net Metering Rules

State-wide net metering for certain utility typesNet metering offered by one or more individual utilities

Source: IREC, DSIRE Database


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Topics

1. ACORE

2. Fundamental drivers3. Global perspective Global Denmark

China4. US markets Key issues Windpower



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Ethanol2005 Outlook

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 2000 2010

Million Gallons / Year

RFS Obligation:7.5 BGY by 2012

Biofuel options: Corn-based ethanol fuel Cellulosic ethanol fuel Bio-diesel fuel


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Ethanol Industry2006 Outlook

Over 100 productionplants in 21 states,plus; 40 + new projects

10-12 expansions New Outlook:

7.5 BGY by 2007-2008 10 BGY by 2010

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 2000 2010

Million Gallons / Year


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Revolutionary Opportunity is at our Doorstep

Biofuels + Hybrid Engines

2003 Toyota Prius47 mpg

Biofuels + Hybrid Engines =

50 100 mpg of fuel300600 mpg of gasoline



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Revolutionary Opportunity is at our Doorstep

Biofuels + Hybrid Engines


Biofuels + Hybrid Engines =

50 100 mpg of fuel300600 mpg of gasoline


Mike Eckharts Two Family Cars


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Topics

1. ACORE

2. Fundamental drivers3. Global perspective Global Denmark

China4. US markets Key issues Windpower Solar PV Biofuels

5. Outlook


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Renewable Energy Targets and Forecasts% of Total Energy

0%10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Global Perspectives A3 Germany

Today (Global) IEA World Energy Outlook Ref

Shell Dynamics (Global) European Union

Navigant (Global) Today (US)

Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) Aitkin (US)

GHG (Hoffert) GPRA05 EERE (US)

EIA Reference (US)

Source:NREL


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Renewable Energy Targets and Forecasts% of Total Energy

0%10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Global Perspectives A3 Germany

Today (Global) IEA World Energy Outlook Ref

Shell Dynamics (Global) European Union

Navigant (Global) Today (US)

Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) Aitkin (US)

GHG (Hoffert) GPRA05 EERE (US)

EIA Reference (US)

Source:NREL

CLIMATE CHANGE

USG


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18801860

1500

0

1000

1500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Surprise

Geothermal

Solar

Biofuels

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil & NGL

Coal

TraditionalBiomass

Royal Dutch Shell

Sustained Growth Scenario1996

E x a j o u

l e s

World Energy Supply Scenario

Source: Royal Dutch Shell, 1995.

TODAY


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Thank You

www.acore.orgwww.acore.orgMichael Eckhart

American Council On Renewable [email protected]

state of renewable energy

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