State-of-the-art: Data and impacts of environmental & climate change on human mobility

Susanne MeldeSenior Analyst, Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC)

IOM, Berlin

Methodology of the literature review & impacts paper

• Desk-based review

• Initial selection of literature, drawing on key specialised research databases.

• A second selection was made of studies and publications warranting more in-depth evaluation.

• Findings were recorded in a structured evaluation matrix, listing sources for each key finding, assessing reliability, and briefly outlining potential policy implications.

Terminology

• Contested nature of key terms, notably:

▪Migration = all types of movement or only voluntary?

▪ Environmental migration: multicausal nature of most migration

• Choice of terms often reflects agendas and mandates…

• …and has implications for rights and (protection) responsibilities

• “Human mobility in the context of environmental/climate change” emerging as a broad, consensual term.

Thesis 1: Solid evidence base …• Increase in number of publications over past 10 years

• Multicausality of migration recognized

• Advances in developing methodologies for comparative studies, agent-based models, identification of

hotspots, innovative approaches etc.

• Data on environmental factors better than migration data

→ Qualitative data on challenges that affected and vulnerable communities are likely to face as

climate changes in different regions, and how migration and mobility are both supporting

and undermining their efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change

→ Responses developed – Action needed

→ 1° warming confirmed (IPCC, 2019), impacts already need to be addressed plus future ones/future ones

still to be avoided

… but remaining data gaps• Internal migration, temporary movements

• Comparative quantitative studies and longitudinal data

• Duration, distance of displacement due to disasters, stocks (only flow data by IDMC)

• Slow-onset processes, data on droughts (EM-DAT, IDMC, IOM)

• Influence of other factors like demographic growth; effects of climate change on water

and food scarcity, soil erosion on soil fertility etc.

• No disaggregated data by sex and age

Thesis 2: Limited use of existing prognoses

• Most quantified prognoses of future environmental migration have been widely criticised due to methodological flaws

• The focus of most prognoses has been on slow-onset processes (climate change, environmental degradation)

• Projections of populations ‘at risk’ are less controversial (such as projected populations at risk from sea-level rise)

• Recent projections of future internal ‘climate migration’ using a gravity model (Rigaud et al., 2018), but movements will not only be internal

Thesis 3: Disasters – Prevention and risk reduction can foster resilience

• The linkages between vulnerability and displacement are complex

• Drivers shaping disaster risk at the macro-level include:• Climate change• Population growth in hazard-prone areas (ex. low-lying coastal zones)• Urbanisation in low- and middle-income countries• High levels of vulnerability

• Disaster preparedness measures (part of broader Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies) can significantly increase resilience and reduce need to move – e.g. financing of DRR & early warning systems

• Evacuation and emergency planning, considering gender aspects, human rights principles, inclusion of migrants

Thesis 4: Slow-onset hazards –alternative options linked to migration

• Growing exposure to sea-level rise is being driven largely by population growth in large, low-lying cities, particularly in Asia, a trend which seems likely to continue (Foresight, 2011).

• There is high uncertainty in regard to how this increased exposure will influence human mobility, with much depending on capacities and governance.

• In low-income countries which lack adaptive capacity - including small island states – sea-level rise could result in significant levels of displacement, migration and planned relocation.

• Avoiding & reducing environmental change and adaptation can help securing livelihoods and finding new ones, options to stay

• Planned relocation as a last resort as complex, questions about ‘inhabitability’ and so far only within countries, human rights protection needs, gender mainstreaming

Thesis 5: Complex & indirect linkages climate change, (forced) migration and conflict• Often assumed that migration is a direct cause of conflict in receiving areas, but

evidence suggests more subtle linkages

Case of pastoralists: • Climate change contributing to pressure on pastoralist livelihoods (e.g. drought)

• Conflict with sedentary farmers, other pastoralist groups in case of large-scaleinfluxes in short time

• Many other important drivers of conflict risk (and migration):• Political marginalisation• Proliferation of weapons resulting from inter- and intra-State wars (past and ongoing) • Demographics

Thesis 6: Increase of immobility

• Environmental stress factors and climate change undermine livelihoods – increase number of those who cannot migrate/”trapped” in affected areas→ Non-migration effect

• Those who cannot or do not want to move (immobile) likely most exposed & vulnerable to environmental change but difficult to identify

Thesis 7: Integrating the challenges and benefits associated with human mobility into climate policies at national level

Thesis 8: Beyond climate policy, entry points in many other areas of policy at national and international level

Thesis 10: Dedicated project components or climate-related funding streams related to migration to raise the profile of the responses among international climate funds or financial mechanisms

Thesis 11: Lessons learnt needed from existing climate change adaptation projects to inform the next round of NDCs and the development of project portfolios of main climate funds and financing mechanisms.

Thesis 12: International community’s “common but differentiated responsibility” to support (developing) countries in planning and implementing relevant programmes, and activities such as climate change adaptation programmes

• Increase climate finance

• Strengthen international and multilateral frameworks – such as the Global Compact for Migration, the SDGs, the Platform on Disaster Displacement and environmental agreements

• Strengthen mechanisms that prevent and minimize negative effects on the environment and on human rights (e.g. in resource extraction, production and consumption) to prevent conflicts and build peace

Susanne Melde, Senior AnalystGlobal Migration Data Analysis Centre

Taubenstr. 20-2210117 Berlin, Germany

smelde@iom.int

Website: https://gmdac.iom.int/https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/environmental_migration

Twitter: @IOM_GMDAC