state of the housing market in our region: sacramento · 2018. 8. 30. · affordability (smaller...
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State of the Housing Market in our Region: SacramentoULI Sacramento
www.thegregorygroup.com 1
August 24, 2018
© 2018 The Gregory Group 2Source: US Census, The Gregory Group
Building Permits (Six‐County Sacramento Region)
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018pSingle-Family Permits Multi-Family Permits
Long‐Term Average = 12,321 (9,526 SF)(1980 – 2017)
1991 – 1997 (Seven Years)Average = 9,763 (8,655 SF)
2009 – 2014 (Six Years)Average = 3,454 (2,910 SF)
2015 – 2017 (Three Years)Average = 7,942 (6,308 SF)
Category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018pSingle‐Family Permits: 1,951 2,949 3,693 3,964 5,417 6,392 7,114 6,752Multi‐Family Permits: 686 575 698 475 1,138 1,073 2,695 1,142Total Permits: 2,637 3,524 4,391 4,439 6,555 7,465 9,806 7,894
Percent Change: ‐7.5% 33.6% 24.6% 1.1% 47.7% 13.9% 31.4% ‐19.5%Percent Single Family Permits: 74.0% 83.7% 84.1% 89.3% 82.6% 85.6% 72.5% 85.5%Percent Multi Family Permits: 26.0% 16.3% 15.9% 10.7% 17.4% 14.4% 27.5% 14.5%
© 2018 The Gregory Group 3Source: The Gregory Group
New Home Sales (Six‐County Sacramento Region)
Long‐Term Average = 7,538(2000 – 2017)
2018pUrban Developments (versus Suburban Development): 6.5%
Small‐Lot/Attached Development (vs Traditional Development): 38.3%
SacramentoRegion
Year Sales2000 12,2162001 10,9362002 16,0622003 15,8582004 17,1552005 14,0942006 9,6072007 7,4162008 4,9652009 2,8412010 1,7762011 1,6682012 2,7822013 2,4582014 2,7392015 3,9862016 5,0872017 5,6632018p 5,916
Average: 7,538
Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018pNew‐Home Sales: 1,776 1,668 2,782 2,458 2,739 3,986 5,087 5,663 5,916
Percent Change: ‐37.5% ‐6.1% 66.8% ‐11.6% 11.4% 45.5% 27.6% 11.3% 4.5%
© 2018 The Gregory Group 4Source: The Gregory Group
New Home Unsold Inventory (Six‐County Sacramento Region)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
New-Home Unsold Inventory Number of Projects
802 Units119 Projects
2,326 Units214 Projects
Long‐Term Average1,688 Units185 Projects
© 2018 The Gregory Group 5Source: The Gregory Group
New Home Pricing (Six‐County Sacramento Region)
Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018pNew‐Home Pricing: $342,112 $313,056 $353,391 $417,651 $436,058 $472,397 $505,792 $515,562 $528,450
Percent Change: ‐11.2% ‐8.5% 12.9% 18.2% 4.4% 8.3% 7.1% 1.9% 2.1%
Previous High (2Q/2006) = $498,0274Q/2018 Projected Price = $528,450
© 2018 The Gregory Group 6
Sacramento Region (Six‐County) Population Change 2017 ‐ 2027
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Under 25 25 ‐ 34 35 ‐ 44 45 ‐ 54 55 ‐ 64 65 ‐ 74 Over 75
Sacramento Region Population Change and Percentage Change 2017-2027
Population Growth 2017-2027 % Change 2017-2027
MillennialsFirst‐Time/First‐Time Move‐Up
Affordability (smaller lots/apartments)Livable/Walkable Communities
“Entertain at the Pub/Not at the Home”
Gen‐XMove‐Up
Big‐Box/Value RatioA Home to Grow Into (and upgrade)
Master Planned CommunitiesGood Schools
Community/Recreation Focused
Baby‐BoomersMove‐Down/Move‐Across
One‐Story Living (in a 1 – 2 story home)Active‐Adult/Active Lifestyle
Community FocusedWalkability (dog walking)
Close (but not too close) to Family
Ages 25 – 44 years:99,407 person increase
15.8%
Ages 65 years and greater:169,457 person increase
45.4%
Source: California Department of Finance, The Gregory Group
The greatest number of ageing baby‐boomers will be in Sacramento County (an increase of 96,623 people during the next ten years), while Placer County will post the greatest 35 – 44 year old
number growth (an increase of 14,346).
© 2018 The Gregory Group 7Source: California Department of Finance, The Gregory Group
Category Sacramento Region Bay Area Region Central Valley Region Total
Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) 10,367 36,628 32,480 79,475
Net Immigration (From Outside US) 9,358 51,041 12,447 72,846
Net Domestic Migration (From Inside US) 7,835 -35,812 8,693 -19,284
Total Change 27,560 51,857 53,620 133,037
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Challenges
• Costs
• Regulation
• Zoning
Challenges and Opportunities
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Opportunities
• A Redefinition of Housing
• Urban Housing in Suburban Locations
• Alternative Types of Housing
Real Estate Information and Consulting Services
Folsom101 Parkshore Drive, Suite 100Folsom, CA 95630(916) [email protected]
www.thegregorygroup.com 9
Aliso Viejo120 Vantis, Suite 300Aliso Viejo, CA 92656(949) [email protected]
State of Housing in our RegionModerated Panel Discussion
Friday, August 24
RiverchaseWest
Sacramento
Stone Lock OneWest Sacramento
ANTON MENLO
2014 – Light Industrial Site Current – 394 Apartment Units
3639 Haven Ave Menlo Park, CA 94025
SUBURBAN SHOWCASE PROJECTS – ANTON MENLO
MENLO PARK, CA (San Francisco Suburb)
394 UNITS; COMPLET
ED 201
8
Type: Wrap
Density: 42 units/acre
Cost per Door: $252KIf Today: $375K
Land Cost: 15%Gov Fees: 8%Const. Cost: 74%
Rent 2 BR: $4,500
300 RAILWAY
2016 – Industrial Warehouses Current – 119 Apartment Units
300 Railway Ave, Campbell, CA 95008
SUBURBAN SHOWCASE PROJECTS – 300 RAILWAYCAMPBELL, CA (San Jose Suburb)
119 UNITS; COMPLET
ED 201
8
Type: Podium Sub T
Density: 65 units/acre
Cost per Door: $450KIf Today: $510K
Land Cost: 27%Gov Fees: 6%Const. Cost: 57%
Rent 2 BR: $4,300
Current – FCUSD Surplus Site 2019 – 140 Mixed‐Income Units
125 E. Bidwell Street, Folsom, CA 95630
SUBURBAN SHOWCASE PROJECTS – BIDWELL POINTE
RESIDEN
TIAL
UNITS
SHOWCASE PROJECTS – BIDWELL POINTE
Type: 3 Story Walk Up
Density: 33 units/acre
Cost per Door: $261KIf Today: $275K
Land Cost: 6%Gov Fees: 10%Const. Cost: 58%
Rent 2 BR: $1,300
WRAP PODIUM GARDEN STYLE
$375K / DOOR $510K / DOOR $275K / DOOR
50‐65 UNITS / ACRE 100+ UNITS / ACRE 33 UNITS / ACRE
$3,000+ PER MONTH $3,500+ PER MONTH $1,300 PER MONTH
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