state of the nation 2014

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Who do we think we are? England Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? - England More English than British 34% (18% 'English not British') Equally English and British 38% More British than English 22% Don't know 6% Ipsos MORI for British Future (Dec 2013). England base size 1,744

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The State of the Nation survey, which has tracked public opinion since 2012, finds that people are three times more optimistic about the economy in 2014 than they have been for the past two years, alongside various other findings conducted by Ipsos MORI for British Future.

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Page 1: State of the Nation 2014

Who do we think we are? England

Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? - Eng-land

More English than British 34% (18% 'English not British')Equally English and British 38%More British than English 22%Don't know 6%

Ipsos MORI for British Future (Dec 2013). England base size 1,744

Page 2: State of the Nation 2014

Who do we think we are? Scotland

Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? - Scotland

More Scottish than British 49% (24% 'Scottish not British')Equally Scottish and British 31%More British than Scottish 19%Don't know 2%

Ipsos MORI for British Future (Dec 2013). Scot-land base size 394

Page 3: State of the Nation 2014

Who do we think we are? Wales

Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? - Wales

More Welsh than British 42% (15% 'Welsh not British')Equally Welsh and British 22%More British than Welsh 35%Don't know 2%

Ipsos MORI for British Future (Dec 2013). Wales base size 106

Page 4: State of the Nation 2014

Personal optimism, national anxieties

Europe

Britain

Place I live

Personal/family

14

29

36

50

38

29

36

28

42

39

25

20

Will 2014 be a good or bad year

Optimistic Neither Pessimistic

Page 5: State of the Nation 2014

Anxious but hopeful about the economy: optimism rising as pessimism falls

2012 2013 2014

9

19

29

74

50

40

Optimistic Neither Pessimistic

Page 6: State of the Nation 2014

Economic optimism: a question of politics – and class

NET Optimist

Pessimist

Neither

Men -8 31 39 27 Women -14 27 41 29

AB + 4 39 35 - 26C1 - 15 27 42 - 28C2 - 15 26 41 - 29DE - 20 23 43 - 30

Conservative +48 62 14 23Labour - 37 19 56 24LibDem +12 41 29 30UKIP - 38 17 55 28

Ipsos MORI for British Future (Dec 2013)

Page 7: State of the Nation 2014

Its gloomier up north – as south looks upEcon Family Place Britain Europe

Men -8 +28 +8 - 10 - 29 Women -14 +31 +15 - 10 - 26

England - 11 +29 +11 - 10 - 28Scotland - 12 +30 +18 - 12 - 27Wales - 21 +35 +14 - 11 - 28

London - 11 +25 +15 -5 - 24North - 22 +29 +3 -20 - 32Midlands - 7 +28 +5 -12 - 33South - 1 +33 +22 0 - 19

Ipsos MORI for British Future (Dec 2013)

Page 8: State of the Nation 2014

Which 2014 events matter most to you personally?

None

European Elections

Rugby Six Nations

Commonwealth Games

Centenary WW1

Romania and Bulgaria immigration

Scottish referendum

Football World Cup

The budget

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8010

2

8

38

13

11

72

11

32

20

11

10

10

17

23

16

24

47

20

14

25

24

13

18

24

23

33

19

11

11

13

16

22

22

23

45

GB Welsh English Scottish

Page 9: State of the Nation 2014

Which 2014 events most affect how you feel about Britain?

None

European Elections

Rugby Six Nations

Commonwealth Games

Centenary WW1

Romania and Bulgaria immigration

Scottish referendum

Football World Cup

The budget

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7015

6

4

37

13

29

62

5

29

25

13

7

13

18

29

22

13

31

22

15

29

15

14

29

26

5

35

24

12

8

15

18

29

25

12

31

GB Welsh English Scottish

Page 10: State of the Nation 2014

Not ‘one nation’ in 2014(Based on question “Which three events matter most to you personally”)

England Scotland Wales

1st The budget 47% Scottish referendum 72%

The budget 33%

2nd World Cup football 24%

Commonwealth Games 38%

Rugby six nations 25%

3rd Romania/Bulgaria 23%

The budget 32% Scottish referendum 24%

4th WW1 centenary 17%

WW1 centenary 13% Commonwealth Games 24%

5th Scottish referendum 16%

World Cup football 11% and Romania and Bulgaria immigration 11% (tied)

World Cup football 23%

Page 11: State of the Nation 2014

What we expect Romanians and Bulgarians who come here to do

Don't know

Nothing - will never be accepted

Nothing - shouldn't have to do anything special

Support British sporting teams

Celebrate British customs

Make friends outside their community

Spend money in Britain, not send it home

Not claim benefits

Get a job and pay taxes

Learn English language

6

2

2

1

4

20

29

48

64

69

Q: "What are the most important things EU migrants can do to be accepted?"

Page 12: State of the Nation 2014

Minimum standards and benefits matter more than in/out questions

Don't know

Other

Shouldn't do anything

Advice to promote integration

Support areas with higher immigration

Leave EU if rules don't change

Stay in EU but try to change rules

Restrict benefits that people from other EU countries can claim

Enforce minimum wage

9

2

2

18

22

26

24

63

45

Q: "How should the UK government respond to immigration from Romania and Bulgaria ?"

Page 13: State of the Nation 2014

A worried, yet welcoming, nation?

Agree68%

Disagree13%

Neither15%

Romanians and Bulgarians coming to Britain have got to learn the language, work hard and pay taxes, fit in

and be part of the community. If they do that we should welcome them to the UK

Page 14: State of the Nation 2014

How much Europe do we want?

28%

38%

8%

6%

3%

17%

Britain's longterm policy should be …

Leave the EUStay and try to reduce EU powersLeave things as they areStay in EU and try to increase EU powersWork towards single European government Don't know

Page 15: State of the Nation 2014

Most prefer EU renegotiation to exit – but UKIP supporters think its time to get out.

Leav

e EU

Stay i

n, reduce

powers

Leav

e as th

ey are

Stay i

n, incre

ase powers

Single

European

gove

rnment

Don’t know

29

57

4 3 1 619

41

14 10 5 1122

43

15 11 3 6

73

192 1 1 4

2838

8 6 317

Do you think Britain’s long-term policy should be …

Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP All

Page 16: State of the Nation 2014

Most UKIP voters say May 2014 is a protest messageQ: Which of the following reasons describes why you vote for the party

you choose in the European election?

0

20

40

60

ConservativeLabourUKIPLibDemGreen

Page 17: State of the Nation 2014

Who will you support in the World Cup?

England

Whoever plays England

Another team

Nobody - will watch as neutral

Nobody - won't watch

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

13

15

10

20

37

53

1

4

7

31

27

8

5

13

41

Welsh English Scottish

Page 18: State of the Nation 2014

50 years of hurt – how England fans stopped dreamingQ: How far will England get in the World Cup?

Don't know

Knocked out in first round

Second Round

Quarter-final

Semi-final

Final

Win

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 3527

32

26

11

2

1

1

25

26

24

16

4

2

3

29

29

20

17

2

1

1

26

27

24

15

4

1

2

GB Welsh English Scottish

Page 19: State of the Nation 2014

How far will England get? (All GB respondents, excluding 26% who answered “Don’t know”)

Knocked out in first round

Second Round

Quarter-final

Semi-final

Final

Win

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

36

32

21

6

2

3

Page 20: State of the Nation 2014

A solemn commemoration, not victory pride

Proud commemoration of victory in just war

22%

Remembrance of loss of life and national reflection

59%

No commemoration of unnecessary war

6%

How should Britain mark the centenary of the first world war in 2014?

Page 21: State of the Nation 2014

Should Scotland be an independent country?*

Wales

England

Scotland

GB

50

43

49

44

19

19

32

20

28

29

10

27

4

9

9

9

Disagree Agree Neither Don't know

Voters across Britain want Scotland to stay in the Union– Scots themselves are the least likely to still be on the fence.

Page 22: State of the Nation 2014

Can you predict the Scots’ referendum result?

Wales

England

Scotland

GB

20

24

22

24

56

47

58

48

24

29

20

28

Remain in UK Vote for independence

Three-quarters of Scots who express a view think there will be a No vote.

Page 23: State of the Nation 2014

The impact of independence

• 47% of Britain say whole country weaker if Scotland leaves

• 57% of Scots say UK weaker without Scotland (vs 45% of English) .

• 50% of Scots think Scotland will be weaker if it leaves UK; 34% think they’ll be stronger

• 60% of English think an independent Scotland would be a weaker country; 31% of them think England would be weaker if Scotland left the UK.