state of the retailcdn2.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/10de84bd-0a...q3 2013 desktop...

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.

State of the U.S. Online Retail

Economy in Q3 2013

November 2013

Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc.

Andrew Lipsman, VP Marketing & Insights, comScore, Inc.

Ian Essling, Sr. Research Manager, comScore, Inc.

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 2

Topics for Today

Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends

Consumer Perceptions of the Economy

Buyer Metrics & Product Category Overview

Recapping Holiday 2012

2013 Holiday Outlook: The 4 S’s

Social Commerce

Smartphones

Sit-Back Shopping

Showrooming

2013 Holiday Forecast

Key Takeaways

Q & A


Data sourced from comScore’s global panel of 2 million Internet users

2 Million Person Panel

360°View of Person Behavior

CENSUS

Unified Digital Measurement™ (UDM)

Patent-Pending Methodology

1 Million Domains Participating Adopted by 90% of Top 100 U.S. Media Properties

PANEL

PERSON-Centric Panel with

WEBSITE-Census Measurement

Web Visiting & Search Behavior Online

Advertising Exposure

Advertising Effectiveness

Demographics, Lifestyles & Attitudes

Media & Video Consumption

Transactions

Online & Offline

Buying

Mobile Internet Usage & Behavior

PANEL

V0411 Plus 5 Million TV Set Top Boxes for 3-Screen Measurement


E-Commerce data includes all worldwide buying on U.S.

sites

Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-Commerce

refers to online retail spending, as measured by

comScore, which excludes travel, autos and auctions

Behavioral activity shown through September 2013

Custom comScore Survey

w/o October 21, 2013 (n=1922)

Unless otherwise noted, “mobile” refers to “smartphone +

tablet”

Analysis Parameters


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Q1'05

Q2'05

Q3'05

Q4'05

Q1'06

Q2'06

Q3'06

Q4'06

Q1'07

Q2'07

Q3'07

Q4'07

Q1'08

Q2'08

Q3'08

Q4'08

Q1'09

Q2'09

Q3'09

Q4'09

Q1'10

Q2'10

Q3'10

Q4'10

Q1'11

Q2'11

Q3'11

Q4'11

Q1'12

Q2'12

Q3'12

Q4'12

Q1'13

Q2'13

Validation of comScore sales data:

Comparison of comScore data to U.S. Department of Commerce

Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Growth* vs. YA

Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

% G

row

th v

s. Y

A

Dept. of Commerce (DOC) comScore Estimate of DOC

*Note: To be consistent with DOC, comScore estimate excludes travel and event

tickets but includes auction fees and autos.

Correlation: 0.92

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. © comScore, Inc. Proprietary.

State of the Economy

A Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends


Desktop e-Commerce (retail + travel) has reached $235 B through Q3

2013, up +12% Y/Y and setting up for a $300 billion year overall

$42 $53 $67 $82 $102

$123 $130 $130 $142 $162

$186 $148

$30 $40

$51 $61

$69

$77 $84 $80

$85

$94

$103

$87

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(Q1-Q3)

Retail Travel

Desktop e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

$72 $93

$117

$143

$171

$200 $214 $209

$228

$289

$256 $235

Bil

lio

ns

($

)

+29%

+26%

+22%

+19%

+17%

+7%

-2%

+9%

+12%

+13%

+26%

+33%

+26%

+28%

+20%

+24% +24%

+13%

+20%

+12%

+6%

+9%

0%

-5%

+10%

+6%

+15%

+9%

+14%

+11%

+12%

+14%

+9%


Mobile commerce, when added to desktop e-Commerce, adds 1-2% of

growth each quarter (when compared to desktop-only growth rates)

$44.3 $43.2 $41.9

$56.8 $50.2 $49.8 $47.5

$4.5 $3.8 $4.6

$7.2

$5.9 $4.7 $5.8

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013

Desktop Mobile

Desktop+Mobile Retail e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Bil

lio

ns

($

)

$54.5 $53.3 $56.1

$64.0

$45.4 $47.0 $48.8

+21% +17% +17% +17% +15% +16% +14%


At +13% growth year over year, desktop e-Commerce continues to

outpace total consumer retail spending , which grew 5% Y/Y

*Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation

includes total retail and food service sales, which also

includes motor vehicles and parts dealers.

2% 2% 1%

-5% -5% -6% -6%

0%

4%

5% 6% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3%

6%

2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 5%

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth vs. YA

(excluding autos, gas and food/beverage)

11% 13%

6%

-3% 0% -1% -2%

3% 10% 9% 9% 11% 12%

14% 13%

14% 17%

15%

15%

14% 13%

16%

13%

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Quarterly Desktop e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA

Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth* vs. YA

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)

4% 2% 1%

-8% -10% -9% -7%

2% 6%

7% 5% 8% 7% 7%

7%

5%

8% 4% 3% 3%

2% 4% 5%

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013


In Q3 2013, desktop e-Commerce accounted for 9.4% percent of

consumers’ discretionary spending, the highest third quarter share on

record

4.3%

3.7% 4.0%

4.6%

5.1%

4.3% 4.5%

5.3%

5.9%

5.0%

5.3%

6.4% 6.7%

5.9%

6.3%

7.4% 7.3%

6.5% 6.6%

7.6% 7.7%

6.8% 6.9%

7.7% 8.1%

7.1% 7.1%

8.0%

8.6%

7.7% 7.6%

8.9%

9.4%

8.7%

8.7%

10.0%

10.6%

9.6%

9.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

*Note: e-Commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC’s Total Retail Sales

excluding Food Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts,

Gasoline Stations and Health & Personal Care Stores.

Desktop e-Commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending* Source: comScore for e-Commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail

e-C

om

me

rce S

hare

e-Commerce share rose +0.7 points

versus Q3 2012


Consumer Perceptions of the Economy


About 4 in 10 consumers still rate the economy as ‘poor,’ a level that

has not improved in three quarters

77%

68% 66% 61% 61% 59% 62% 61%

52% 59% 60% 60%

54% 49%

56%

48% 42% 40% 40% 41%

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Percent of Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor

Q. How would you rate economic conditions today? Source: comScore Surveys


Rising prices remains the top concern for consumers, followed by

unemployment/job security

Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue

46%

40% 42%

50%

42% 44% 45%

36%

27%

37% 38%

31%

26%

33% 34%

31%

33%

31%

33%

28%

32% 32%

29%

33% 30%

29%

42%

54%

37% 37%

43%

48%

44%

45%

47% 45%

46% 42%

15% 13% 13%

9% 10%

13%

9% 7% 7%

12% 12%

10% 11%

10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 12%

8% 8% 8%

7% 9%

8%

10% 11%

7%

8% 9%

10% 11%

8% 8% 7% 7% 6%

8%

Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13

Unemployment /Job Security

RisingPrices

FinancialMarkets

Real Estate /Home Values

Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most concerns you? Source: comScore Surveys


Retailer and Product Category Overview


Metric Q3 2012 Q3 2013 % change

Dollar Sales ($ Billions) $41.9 $47.5 +13%

Dollars per Buyer $216.7 $245.3 +13%

Buyers (Millions) 194 193 0%

Average Order Value $89.8 $92.5 +3%

Transactions (Millions) 467 513 +10%

Transactions per Buyer 2.41 2.65 +10%

Key Desktop e-Commerce Buyer and Transaction Measures

Q3 2013 vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

e-Commerce dollar sales in Q3 increased due to growth in dollar sales

and dollars per buyer. The number of buyers appears to have plateaued


Desktop computers

+1%

Cameras and equipment

+11%

Led by digital content and apparel/accessories, nearly all e-Commerce

categories showed ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ growth versus Q3 2013

Q3 2013 Desktop e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Category Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

Absolute

Dollar Rank Product Category

Q3 2013

Growth

vs. YA

#7 Digital Content & Subscriptions Very Strong

#2 Apparel & Accessories Very Strong

#3 Consumer Packaged Goods Very Strong

#4 Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals) Very Strong

#12 Jewelry & Watches Strong

#11 Sport & Fitness Strong

#5 Event Tickets Strong

#10 Home & Garden Strong

#9 Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Strong

#1 Computers/Peripherals/PDAs Strong

#13 Video Games, Consoles & Accessories Strong

#14 Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Strong

#6 Office Supplies Moderate

#8 Books & Magazines Low

Mobile phones and plans

+23%

Growth rate definitions:

Very Strong: +15% or higher

Strong: +10-14%

Moderate: +5%-9%

Low: +1%-4%

Portable devices

(e.g. tablets)

+18%


Source: comScore Survey – October 2013

Google Glass is by far the wearable device consumers are most

familiar with – overall, 40% were aware of at least one wearable tech

40% 60%*

% Aware of Wearable Technology

Overall Awareness of

Wearable Technology

Aware of

Wearable

Technology Not Aware

of Wearable

Technology

* - Net of: 54% “No”, 6% “Don’t know/not sure”

Awareness of Specific Wearable

Technology Devices

36%

18%

17%

16%

12%

10%

10%

6%

4%

3%

3%

Google Glass

Apple Smartwatch

Samsung Galaxy Gear

Sony Smartwatch

Nike+

Fitbit

Nike Fuel Band

JawBone Up

BodyMedia Fit Core

Pebble

Qualcomm TOQ

% Aware of Wearable Technology


Interest to purchase a wearable device varies significantly by

age, with 25-34 year olds the most likely to purchase

15%

26%

14%

8%

4%

3%

18 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 -64

65 or older

Consumers who are Highly Likely to Purchase a

Wearable Computer Device (by Age, % Top-2 Box) Overall, just 11% of online consumers are likely to

purchase a wearable computer device in the future

Among those unlikely to make a purchase, “no interest in

wearable computer devices” was the most commonly cited

reason for not considering a future purchase (60%). Price

is also an issue, as 43% of consumers feel a device would

be too expensive.



Less than half of online transactions in Q3 2013 included

free shipping, a trough seen in prior Q3’s

Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with

Free Shipping Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

40% 52% 49% 47% 43%

50% 48% 51% 44%

60% 48% 51% 53% 57%

50% 52% 49% 56%

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

% Transactions with Free Shipping

% Transactions with Paid Shipping


Recapping Holiday 2012


Holiday Season includes November and December

*Percentage change includes seasonal adjustment to account for unequal

number of weekdays and weekend days in 2011 and 2012

2012 U.S. e-Commerce holiday spending grew 14% to record $42.3

billion, but fell shy of initial forecast of 17% growth

$19.6

$24.6

$29.2 $28.0

$29.1

$32.6

$37.6

$42.3

+26%

+19%

-4%

+4%

+12%

+15%*

14%

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$40.0

$45.0

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Holiday Season $ in Billions Y/Y Growth Rates

Holiday Season Retail e-Commerce Sales ($ Billions)

Growth vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*


Early December 2012 lull in growth rate held down spending growth

for the season that even a late spending surge could not overcome

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Cumulative Season to Date

7-Day Trailing Average

Cumulative 2012 Holiday Season Growth Rate and 7-Day Trailing Average Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement


2011

% Change

2011 vs. 2010 2012

% Change

2012 vs. 2011

October $12,293 16% $14,495 16%

Holiday Season (Nov. 1 – Dec. 31) $37,170 15% $42,286 14%

Thanksgiving (Nov. 22) * $479 18% $633 32%

Black Friday (Nov. 23) * $816 26% $1,042 28%

Cyber Monday (Nov. 26) * $1,251 22% $1,465 17%

Green Monday (Dec. 10) * $1,133 19% $1,275 13%

Free Shipping Day (Dec. 17) ** $575 N/A $1,013 76%

Christmas Day (Dec. 25) $212 16% $288 36%

2012 growth rates accelerated markedly during Thanksgiving / Black

Friday period, potentially cannibalizing from Cyber Monday

2012 Holiday Season e-Commerce Spending ($ Millions)

* Based on corresponding shopping day

** Based on corresponding shopping day, which was not Free Shipping Day in prior year


2012 had 12 days surpass $1 Billion in sales, with 4 out of 5 days

during week of Green Monday hitting that threshold

$-

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,600,000,000

Cyber

Monday

Black

Friday

Green

Monday

Free Shipping

Day

Online Spending by Day 2012 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement


+5%

Cyber Monday’s intense promotional activity has vaulted it to #1 in

recent years, while Green Monday has settled for a spot in top 3

8

12

9

3

2

1 1 1

1 2

1 2

5

2 3 3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sp

en

din

g D

ay R

an

k

Cyber Monday - Spending Day Rank

Green Monday - Spending Day Rank$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cyber Monday & Green Monday –

U.S. Online Spending in Millions Source: comScore E-commerce Measurement, 2005-2012

Cyber Monday & Green Monday -

Spending Day Rank Source: comScore E-commerce Measurement, 2005-2012

+12%

-1% -2% +33%

+19%

+19%

+13%

+16%

+15% +21%

+26%

+22%

+17%


Of all milestone holiday spending days, Thanksgiving Day has grown

the fastest over the past five years followed by Cyber Monday

5-Year Growth Trend for Key Holiday Season e-Commerce Days

2012 vs. 2007 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement

201%

141%

140%

93%

72%

Thanksgiving Day

Cyber Monday

Black Friday

Green Monday

Full Season


2013 Holiday Outlook: The 4 S’s


Key Holiday Theme: The 4 S’s

Social Commerce

Smartphones

Sit-Back Shopping

Showrooming


Social Commerce


Pinterest is gaining influence as a social commerce

channel, and usage is rapidly shifting to mobile

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Desktop Mobile

Pinterest Total Unique Visitors (000) by Platform Source: comScore Media Metrix and Mobile Metrix, U.S., Jul-2012 – Sep 2013


How Social Marketing Works on Facebook

Get Fans

Brand

Messages

Reach Fans

in News

Feed

Fans “Talk

About”

News Feed

Content

News Feed

Content Spreads

to Friends;

Content and

Stories Are

Boosted by Ads

Goal: Max

Reach,

ROI

2. Engagement 3. Amplification 1. Fan Reach

Many brands don’t consider

these intermediary steps


Retailers on Facebook: Walmart dominates its peers in total social

sharing activity… what are they doing right?

11,440

2,903

12,749

26,919

74,838

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Amazon.com Best Buy eBay Target Walmart

Number of Social Shares on Facebook


Retailers on Facebook: Walmart leverages a large ‘Fan’ base AND

active marketing efforts to engage users and drive sharing

20,557,915

6,773,165 6,492,853

22,193,231

33,990,043


Number of Fans

54

81 58 66

241


Number of Posts

0.53% 0.48%

2.11%

1.49%

2.56%


Engaged Users as % of Fans

0.11

0.09 0.09

0.08 0.09


Shares per Engaged User


Smartphones &

Sit-Back Shopping

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 35 Source: comScore Device Essentials

Smartphones and Tablets have ushered in the Brave New

Digital World: Media Fragmentation is the New Reality

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

U.S

. T

ota

l D

ev

ice

Ow

ne

rs

140 MILLION

70 MILLION

+24%

YoY

+60%

YoY


As of September 2013, we have reached a point where we

now have a ‘Multi-Platform Majority’ among Internet users

46% 45% 42% 42% 40% 40% 40% 39%

6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%

48% 49% 52% 52% 54% 54% 54% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-2013 Mar-2013 Apr-2013 May-2013 Jun-2013 Jul-2013 Aug-2013 Sep-2013

Desktop Only Mobile Only Multi-Platform

Share of Total Digital Population by Platform Usage Source: comScore Media Metrix Multi-Platform, U.S., Feb-2013 – Sep 2013


As of August 2013, the digital population spends more time engaging

with Retail brands on their smartphone than on their desktop

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

To

tal M

inu

tes (

MM

)

Desktop Smartphone Tablet

Total Minutes (MM) Spent in Retail Category by Platform Source: comScore Media Metrix and Mobile Metrix, U.S., Feb-2013 – Sep 2013

49% 41%

37% 44%

14% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-2013 Sep-2013

Desktop

Smartphone

Tablet


0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Amazon Sites

eBay

Apple.com Sites

Wal-Mart

Target Corp.

Best Buy Sites

The Home Depot

Etsy.com

Sears.com

Macy's

PC Only PC + Mobile Mobile Only

One third of the average leading retailer’s monthly traffic is now

exclusively mobile; only a select top few attract users primarily via app

Selected Leading Retailers: Total U.S. Digital Population

Unique Visitors (000) by Platform Source: comScore Media Metrix Multi-Platform, U.S., September 2013

163M

94M

69M

58M

42M

28M

22M

20M

19M

19M 98%

98%

71%

94%

84%

79%

80%

<1%

35%

23%

2%

2%

29%

6%

16%

21%

20%

99%

65%

77%

Browser App

% of Time Spent –

Browser vs. App Source: comScore Mobile

Metrix, U.S., Sep-2013

Mobile = Smartphone + Tablet

Mobile app usage for Apple.com Sites includes all Apple property apps (e.g. iTunes, Apple

Maps, etc.)


Retail e-Commerce Dollars Spent in Billions via Mobile (Smartphone & Tablet) Source: comScore E-commerce & M-commerce Measurement

At $5.8 Billion in Q3 2013, m-Commerce accounted for 11% of all

Retail e-Commerce – up vs. year ago, setting up for a strong Q4

$0.6 $0.8

$1.6

$2.4 $2.6

$3.5

$4.9 $4.5

$3.8

$4.6

$7.2

$5.9

$4.7

$5.8

$10.0

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Can we hit $10 billion

in Q4?

?


In terms of discretionary spending, m-Commerce growth is

significantly outpacing e-Commerce & Bricks-and-Mortar

+5%

+13%

+26%

+0%

+5%

+10%

+15%

+20%

+25%

+30%

Total Discretionary Retail E-Commerce M-Commerce

Q3 2013 Y/Y Retail Spending Growth by Channel Source: Dept. of Commerce, comScore e-Commerce & m-Commerce Measurement


M-Commerce buying can see significant variation across

product categories, with Toys/Hobbies skewing toward mobile

Q3 2013 Share of Product Category Digital Commerce

Spending by Platform for Selected Categories Source: comScore e-Commerce & m-Commerce Measurement

89%

93%

90%

90%

86%

82%

76%

73%

7%

4%

6%

6%

9%

11%

15%

16%

4%

3%

4%

4%

5%

8%

9%

10%

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

Total Digital Commerce

Computer Hardware

Consumer Electronics

Apparel & Accessories

Event Tickets

Digital Content & Subscriptions

Toys & Hobbies

Video Games & Accessories

Desktop Smartphone Tablet


Showrooming


For most consumers, showrooming remains an

‘occasional’ shopping tactic

More than 1 in 3 online

consumers have

showroomed…

However, among these

consumers, most only

showroom ‘sometimes’

or ‘occasionally’

Among smartphone

owners, usage of phones to

showroom has increased

significantly

11%

76%

11%

Only for majorpurchases

Sometimes /Occasionally

Often

34%

% who have ever showroomed

Q. Based on this definition, have you ever done this activity? (seen

an item in-store but instead purchased online)

Q. When thinking of your online shopping and the previous

questions, which statement best describes when you use

showrooming?

% among showroomers

Source: comScore Survey – July 2013

Q. Have you ever used your mobile device (smartphone / tablet) to

assist in showrooming?

41%

49%

% smartphone owners who have used theirphone to showroom

Q2 2013 Q3 2013


73%

44%

25%

16%

15%

5%

Price was better online

Planned to buy online but wanted to see item(s) in personbefore ordering

Item was out of stock at store

Would rather have item(s) shipped to home than take homewith me

Was not convenient to buy in-person at the time

Other

% among those who engaged in 'showrooming'

Although the top reason for showrooming remains finding a better

price online, 44% of ‘showroomers’ never planned to buy in person

Why Consumers Are ‘Showrooming’

Q. Which of the following describe why you utilized

showrooming? (Please select all that apply)



Showroomers are more likely than non-showroomers to

have gotten a jump on holiday shopping

39%

31%

% of Showroomers

% of Non-showroomers

Nearly half (44%) of

smartphone-owner

showroomers have already

started their holiday shopping!



2013 Holiday Forecast


Crystal Ball: 5 Bold Predictions for the 2013 Holiday Season

#1 Prelim Forecast: holiday desktop e-Commerce will grow 13-15%

with shorter calendar (six fewer shopping days) weighing on growth

- Including m-Commerce, total digital growth expected to be 14-17%

#2 m-Commerce will reach its highest ever percentage of total digital

commerce at 12-13% and approach $10 billion in spending

#3 Cyber Monday will be the heaviest online spending day in history

and reach $1.8 Billion in desktop spending with 20%+ y/y growth rate

- With the addition of m-Commerce, the day could surpass $2 Billion

#4 Late-season shopping will prevail, with 25% of buying happening

Dec.15th or later

#5 There will be a M-F work week this year that is headlined by five

$1+ billion dollar spending days, with Cyber Week the most likely


Key Takeaways


Key Takeaways

• While desktop Q3 E-Commerce growth remained strong at +13% y/y, it

represented a deceleration vs. Q2’s +16% growth

• However, e-Commerce continues to significantly outpace total consumer

spending, which grew by 5% in Q3

• m-Commerce also grew 26% and now accounts for 11% of all e-commerce sales

• comScore’s 2013 Holiday Forecast of +13-15% growth, rising to 14-17%

with the inclusion of m-commerce, is tempered by recent softness and

a short Thanksgiving-Christmas calendar

• Consumer sentiment remains stable, but discretionary spending has been

squeezed and the short 26-day shopping period may affect total spending

• Benchmark promotional shopping days like Black Friday, Cyber Monday and

Green Monday should all be expected to perform particularly well given pent-up

consumer demand

• Key Holiday Theme: The 4 S's

• Smartphones, Social Commerce, Showrooming and Sit-Back Shopping will drive

many of the key emerging storylines this season

• Retailers and marketers who understand these opportunities will gain a leg up

on the competition

© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.

www.comscore.com

www.facebook.com/comscoreinc

@comScore

Please contact us at [email protected] if

you have any additional questions or comments.

Questions?

state of the retailcdn2.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/10de84bd-0a...q3 2013 desktop...

Documents