state of the region - sparebank 1 · 2019-12-26 · oil price –rebounded from low levels at the...
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Business Survey and Economic Outlook
for South-West of Norway (SR-Bank’s market area)
State of the Region
Autumn 2016
Kyrre M. Knudsen, Chief Economist
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Key takeaways
• Low/moderat growth in the global economy & current keydriving forces adding uncertainty
• Oil price dampened by production and high capacity
• Norwegian economy improving following a fairly mild oil-induced downturn
• Macroeconomic in South-west of Norway (SR-Bank’s marketarea) stabilising
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Oil price – rebounded from low levels at thestart of 2016
09.11.2016
Presentasjon text3
Oil price. Spot and 3 year forward, USD/bbl
Spo
t3 year forward
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Businesses surveys in Norway improving
09.11.2016
Presentasjon text4
Business survey by Statistics Norway (SSB) and
Central Bank of Norway (Norges Bank)
Business survey Norwegian manufactuering (PMI)
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Norwegian consumer sentiment improving
09.11.2016
Presentasjon text5
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6
6
Sources: Statistics Norway as of September 13, 2016, *Ministry of Finance budget 2017
* Business, housing and public sector
Key economic indicators
Economic Indicators (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016P 2017P
GDP mainland, annual change (%) 1.9 3.8 2.3 2.2 1.1 0.9 2.1
Household consumption, annual change (%) 2.3 3.5 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0
Public consumption, annual change (%) 1.0 1.6 1.0 2.7 2.1 2.6 1.9
Investment mainland, annual change (%)* 5.0 7.4 2.9 0.4 0.6 4.3 5.1
Investment public sector 1.1 -1.8 11.8 4.4 3.0 4.0 6.2
Investment offshore oil and gas, annual change (%) 11.3 15.1 19.3 -3.2 -15.0 -19.1 -8.0
Oil price, USD/bbl (SR-Bank estimate 2016 and 2017) 111 112 109 99 53 45 55
Inflation rate (CPI) % 1.2 0.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 3.4 2.0
3 month NIBOR % 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0
Mortgage rate % 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.5
Household savings ratio 5.8 7.1 7.6 8.2 10.4 6.2 6.3
Unemployment rate 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 4.4 4.7 4.5
HH sector real disposable income, annual change (%) 4.1 4.4 3.8 2.7 5.2 -2.5 2.2
Current account surplus, share of GDP (%) 12.7 12.4 10.2 11.0 8.7 6.1 6.7
Gov. budget surplus, share of GDP (%)* 14 14 12 10 7 4
Sovereign Wealth Fund, share of GDP (%)* 118 129 164 204 244 234
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7
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream and OECD
GDP and key drivers
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
19
781
980
19
821
984
19
861
988
19
901
992
19
941
996
19
982
000
20
022
004
20
062
008
20
102
012
20
142
016
Norwegian economy, GDP decomposed, share of GDP
Private consumption
Gov't consumption
Gross capital formation (investment)
Net export
Oil activities and ocean transport
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
Norwegian GDP, annual change (%)
Forecast 2016-17 (OECD)
GDP, mainland Norway (excl. oil)
GDP, Norway
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8
Reduced petroleum activity in 2016The major part of the decline is done during 2016
• Petroleum activity fell in 2015 after
reaching record levels in 2013 and 2014.
The Petroleum Directorate expects a
decrease of 11 % in 2016 after a reduction
of 13 % in 2015. The decline is expected to
slow down in 2017 and 2018.
• Operating expenses (opex), which are
important for activity in the region , are
more stable. These fell 5 % last year and is
expected to fall 5 % this year.
Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Petroleum activity on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, NPD forecast 2016-2020 (BNOK)
Investments Opex Exploration
Decommision Other Total
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Retail trade increasing in Norway, around zero in Rogaland
9
Source: SSB
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2009T1 2010T1 2011T1 2012T1 2013T1 2014T1 2015T1 2016T1
Retail sales (excl. auto), annual change
Oslo Vest-Agder Rogaland Hordaland Norway
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Unemployment rate trending down last months
10
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Norwegian unemployment rate, %, registered (NAV), seasonal adj.
Norway Rogaland Hordaland Vest-Agder Norway, SSB AKU-unempl. rate
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0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
House prices, NOK per sqm, average
Rogaland Hordaland Vest-Agder Oslo Norway
House prices increasing in Norway. Flattening out in Rogaland
11
Source: Finn.no, Eiendom Norge and Eiendomsverdi
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90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Norwegian labour costs¹ relative to trading partners' labour costs.
Index. 1995=100.
Measured in domestic currency
Measured in common currency
Weak NOK increases competitiveness
12
Source: Thomson Reuters DatastreamSource: Central Bank of Norway
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Norwegian krone vs key currencies
NOK per USD
NOK per EUR
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Net export surplus despite drop in oil price
13
Source: Statistics Norway
-80.000
-40.000
0
40.000
80.000
120.000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Norwegian exports and imports (MNOK)
Exports of oil and gas Exports mainland Norway Imports Exports fish Net exports
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14
Government finances and the sovereign wealth fund
• Cash flow from the petroleum sector (taxes,
ownership) is channeled into the sovereign
wealth fund
• Fiscal spending rule is 4% of the fund, but has
been less than that latest years – flexibility to
spend more if needed
Source: Central Bank of Norway
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
7.000.000
8.000.000
19
96
19
97
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
14
20
15
Norwegian oil fund and GDP (BNOK)
Government pension fund global (oil fund)
Oil fund to GDP (%), rhs
Oil fund to GDP mainland (%), rhs
-40.000
0
40.000
80.000
120.000
160.000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Norway BOP and gov't budget (BNOK)
Balance of payments (BOP), currentaccount surplus
Government budget balance (transferto/from the oil fund)
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Business Survey and Economic Outlook
for South-West of Norway (SR-Bank’s market area)
State of the Region
Autumn 2016
Kyrre M. Knudsen, Chief Economist
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Cautious optimism among businesses// Kyrre M. Knudsen, Chief Economist
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600 businesses in SR-Bank’s market area in South-West Norway, counties: Rogaland, Hordaland and Agder
Business survey including1. Devleopment previous 12 months2. Businesses expectations the coming 12
months• Manning/employment• Turnover• Profitability• Investments• Order backlog
Business survey
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Marked improvement from april 2016 to august 2016
* Average of the 6 subindices. ** Economic development previous 12 months. *** Expectations coming 12 months
Main index* Economic dev** Manning*** Turnover*** Profitability*** Investments*** Order backlog***
56 5753
6559
4855
49 50 5258
4743
474743
47
55
4643
4648 47 4754
4743
4754
5054
6256
4953
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
HOVEDINDEKS*ØKONOMISK UTVIKLING**ANSATTE*** OMSETNING***LØNNSOMHET***INVESTERINGER***ORDRERESERVE***
Share (%) of businesses expecting growthnov.14 aug.15 nov.15 apr.16 aug.16
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56 5661
5055
4953 50
42
31
47 50 47
39
26
48 50 49
35
27
54 55 55 53
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
TOTAL INGEN* UNDER 1/3* MELLOM 1/3 OG 2/3* 2/3 +
Business survey by oil exposure (turn-over)nov.14 aug.15 nov.15 apr.16 aug.16
Share (%) of businesses expecting growth
Økte forventninger blant oljebedrifter
* Andel av omsetningen som er knyttet til oljevirksomhet
Main index No oil exposure Less than 1/3 of turnover in oil 1/3 to 2/3 in oil More than 2/3 in oil
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6255
62
53
45 4751 50
45
36
47 4842 42
49 4855
44
57 54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
INDUSTRI BYGG/ANLEGG VAREHANDEL ANNET
nov.14 aug.15 nov.15 apr.16 aug.16
Business survey by sectorShare (%) of businesses expecting growth
Uplift in manufactuering amid less negative drag from the oil-sector
Manufactuering Construction Retail Other sectors
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40
45
50
55
60
65
Indeks nov 14 Indeks aug 15 Indeks nov 15 Indeks apr 16 Indeks aug 16 Utvikling siste12 mnd
Omsetning Lønnsomhet Investeringer Ordrereserve Årsverk
Totalt Agder Rogaland Hordaland
Business survey by countyShare (%) of businesses expecting growth
Subindices per august 2016
Ec dev |2 mnth Turnover Profitability Investm. Order backlog Employment
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Agder Rogaland Hordaland
Industri Bygg/anlegg Varehandel Annet
Business survey by county and sectorShare (%) of businesses expecting growth
Manufact Construction Retail Other sectors
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FORECASTS
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-2022GDP Growth, global 3,1 3,1 3,3 3,1 3USA 2,4 2 2,25 2,25 2Eurozone 1,5 1,4 1,25 1,25 1China 6,75 6,25 6 5,5 5
Oil price 50 45 50 55 60
Norway1 1 1,5 2 2GDP mainland-Norway
Unemployment rate (registered) 3 3,5 3,5 3,5 3,4Employment (change) 0,6 0,1 0,5 0,5 0,5Oil investments -12,5 -15 -5 -5 0NOK/USD 8,1 8,25 8 8 7,5NOK/EUR 8,95 9,5 9 9 8,755 year interest rate (IRS) 1,5 1 1,25 1,25 1,75Key policy rate 1,125 0,375 0,25 0,25 1,5
Regional outlook 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018-20Unemployment rate Rogaland 3,4 4,6 4,3 4 3Unemployment rate Hordaland 2,8 3,4 3 3 3Unemployment rate Agder 3,6 4 3,5 3,5 3,5
Employment (change) Rogaland -0,5 -1 0 0 0,5Employment (change) Hordaland 0 0 0 0 0,5Employment (change) Agder-fylkene -0,7 -1 0 0 0,5
Boligpris Rogaland -0,5 -4 1 2 2Boligpris Hordaland 8 4 3,5 2 2Boligpris Agder-fylkene 3,9 3 2 2 2
Leiepris næringseiendom Rogaland* 1575 -17 2 7 2Leiepris næringseiendom Hordaland* 2000 -5 -5 0 2Leiepris næringseiendom Agder* 1450 -2 0 1 2
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Denne rapporten må anses som markedsføringsmateriale med mindre den er utarbeidet i henhold til krav for investeringsanalyse, jf Forskrift til verdipapirhandelloven 2007/06/29 nr 876. SR-Bank Markets gjør sitt
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- 25 -
Juni 2011
• Markedsoppdatering og strategiske vurderinger