state of the sitka economy, 2008 prepared for: sitka economic development association prepared by:...
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State of the Sitka Economy, 2008State of the Sitka Economy, 2008
Prepared for:Sitka Economic Development Association
Prepared by:McDowell Group, Inc.
March 25, 2008
Presentation ContentsPresentation Contents
I. State of the Sitka Economy
II. Southeast Regional Economy
III. Visitor Industry Indicators
IV. Seafood Industry Profile
V. Development Issues and Opportunities
I. State of the Sitka EconomyI. State of the Sitka Economy
Sitka’s Balanced EconomySitka’s Balanced EconomyEmployment by Sector, 2006Employment by Sector, 2006
Government21%
Seafood13%
Leisure & Hospitality11%
Other6% Construction
5%
Health Care16%
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
18%
Education9%
Source: ADOLWD
Sitka PopulationSitka Population1997-20071997-2007
8,708 8,722 8,681 8,835 8,725 8,793 8,890 8,824 8,944 8,989 8,640
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: ADOLWD
Sitka EmploymentSitka Employment1997-20061997-2006
3,825 3,875 4,055 4,083 4,171 4,302 4,358 4,278 4,418 4,409
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: ADOLWD
Sitka PayrollSitka Payroll1997-2006 ($ Millions)1997-2006 ($ Millions)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nominal RealSource: ADOLWD
Sitka Gross Business SalesSitka Gross Business Sales1997-2007 ($ Millions)1997-2007 ($ Millions)
$195 $210 $214 $222 $235 $264 $285 $315 $335 $352 $368
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: City of Sitka
Sitka Construction ActivitySitka Construction ActivityNumber of New Dwelling Units 1997-2007Number of New Dwelling Units 1997-2007
57
3734
49
64 62 59
46
71
54
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: City of Sitka
Number of Lots AbsorbedNumber of Lots Absorbed2000-20072000-2007
42
54
16
3236
21
31
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: City of Sitka
Sitka School EnrollmentSitka School EnrollmentSchool years 2002-2008School years 2002-2008
Year Enrollment % Change2002 1,610 -
2003 1,550 -3.7%
2004 1,466 -5.4
2005 1,477 +0.8
2006 1,477 0.0
2007 1,454 -1.6
2008 1,380 -5.1
Source: Sitka School District (OASIS Report)
2006 Average Monthly Wages2006 Average Monthly Wages
Alaska Sitka• Government $3,679 $3,335• Construction $4,864 $3,990• Service-Providing $2,937 $2,483• Financial $3,742 $3,146• Professional & Business $3,864 $2,109• Education & Health $3,087 $3,428• Leisure & Hospitality $1,508 $1,310
Source: AKDOLWD
Recent Changes Recent Changes • Sheldon Jackson College closed
– Loss of 109 jobs• SEARHC cutbacks
– Loss of 40 jobs in Sitka, 60 region-wide• U.S Forest Service cutbacks
– Loss of 5 jobs by 2010– Last year 6 employees resigned and will not be
replaced • Opening of Silver Bay Seafoods
– 170 seasonal jobs created– 10 full-time, year-round staff
• Sitka Community Hospital purchased Moore Clinic
• Increases in ferry port calls for 2008
Sitka Economic IndicatorSitka Economic IndicatorOverviewOverview
• Diverse economy (5 sectors with 10% or more of Sitka’s total employment)
• Population declined 4% (349 residents) from 2006 to 2007
• Employment declined by 9 jobs from 2005 to 2006– A greater decline is expected to be reflected in the 2007 figures
• Payroll up $3 million• Gross business sales continued to grow in 2007• Construction activity is down• School enrollment declined 5% (74 students)• Employment opportunities in Sitka have declined
recently.– Good paying jobs in education, federal government, and
healthcare have been lost.
II. Southeast Regional II. Southeast Regional EconomyEconomy
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends2006-20072006-2007
Source: ADOLWD
Average Annual % Change
Statewide Total +0.9
Region Total -1.5
Sitka -4.0
Juneau -1.7
Ketchikan -0.3
Wrangell-Petersburg -0.4
Prince of Wales -2.8
Skagway-Hnh-Ang -0.5
Haines -0.8
Southeast Alaska Population TrendsSoutheast Alaska Population Trends2005-20072005-2007
2005 2006 2007 Change
06-07Region Total 70,891 70,405 69,328 -1,077
Sitka 8,944 8,989 8,640 -349
Juneau 31,225 30,811 30,305 -506
Ketchikan 13,131 13,201 13,160 -41
Wrangell-Petersburg 6,167 6,039 6,016 -23
Prince of Wales 5,510 5,479 5,328 -151
Skagway-Hnh-Ang 3,063 3,016 3,001 -15
Haines 2,208 2,239 2,257 18
Source: ADOLWD
Southeast Employment 2007Southeast Employment 2007
• Employment increased by 50 jobs• Changes in:
– Leisure and Hospitality +200 jobs– Service Providing +150 jobs– Retail Trade +50 jobs– Local Government +50 jobs– Seafood Processing -50 jobs– Education and Health services -50 jobs– Goods Producing -100 jobs– State Government -100 jobs
Source: ADOLWD –Current Employment Statistics Program (CES)
Southeast SummarySoutheast Summary
• Regional population down 1.5% (1,077 residents)
• Employment up by 50 jobs– Highest growth in the leisure & hospitality and
service providing sectors– Largest decline in the goods producing and
state government sectors
III. Visitor Industry IndicatorsIII. Visitor Industry Indicators
Alaska Full-Year Visitor Volume, Alaska Full-Year Visitor Volume, May 2006-April 2007May 2006-April 2007 By Transportation MarketBy Transportation Market
Cruise ship, 958,900,
51%
Highway/ Ferry, 97,300,
5%
Air, 824,800, 44%
Source: Alaska Visitor Statistics Program (AVSP), McDowell Group, Inc.
Total Visitors: 1,881,000
Full Year Visitor VolumeFull Year Visitor VolumeMay 2006 – April 2007May 2006 – April 2007
Volume
Alaska 1,881,000
Southeast 1,190,000
Sitka 291,000
Source: AVSP, McDowell Group, Inc.
Southeast Cruise Passenger VolumeSoutheast Cruise Passenger Volume1997-20071997-2007
525,000 569,000596,000640,000690,000720,000770,000884,000953,000959,0001,017,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sitka Cruise Ship VisitorsSitka Cruise Ship Visitors1997-20071997-2007
183,600 161,400168,000 156,000 206,300250,200256,800 232,400 229,800267,000 233,936
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Deplaning Passengers, Sitka Airport*Deplaning Passengers, Sitka Airport*1997-20071997-2007
62,369 59,075 64,482 65,462 67,661 68,522 68,557 75,130 72,156 70,334 69,379
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics* includes residents and non-residents
Disembarking Ferry Passengers*Disembarking Ferry Passengers*1997-20071997-2007
16,383 16,636 16,016 13,599 13,989 13,975 13,459 14,956 12,519 13,400 14,529
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: AMHS* includes residents and non-residents
Sitka Passenger Volume, 2007Sitka Passenger Volume, 2007
2006 2007 % Change
Cruise Visitors 267,000 233,936 -12.4%
Air Passengers 70,334 69,379 -1.4%
Ferry Passengers 13,400 14,529 +8.4%
Sitka Hotel Bed Tax ReceiptsSitka Hotel Bed Tax Receipts1997-20071997-2007
$133,722$136,121
$243,425$250,365$264,193$285,139$302,827$387,109$358,765$366,115
$403,698
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: City of Sitka
Visitor Traffic SummaryVisitor Traffic Summary
• Alaska visitor volume 1,881,000– 51% visit by cruise ship– 44% visit by air– 5% visit by highway/ferry
• Southeast cruise passenger volume continued to grow– Over 1 million visitors in 2007
• Sitka visitor volume declined– Cruise visitors down 12.4%– Deplaning air passengers down 1.4%– Disembarking ferry passengers up 8.4%
IV. Seafood Industry ProfileIV. Seafood Industry Profile
Major SE FisheriesMajor SE Fisheries2007 Ex-vessel Value2007 Ex-vessel Value
Salmon52%Halibut &
Blackcod34%
Shellfish8%
Herring3%
Dive fisheries3%
SE Regional Ex-Vessel ValuesSE Regional Ex-Vessel Values2002-20062002-2006
Salmon Non-Salmon Total
2002 $ 48,508,934 $ 80,470,869 $ 128,979,803
2003 $ 55,136,780 $ 87,979,986 $ 143,116,766
2004 $ 76,890,456 $ 99,209,693 $ 176,100,149
2005 $ 80,861,977 $ 105,074,198 $ 185,936,175
2006 $ 95,008,717 $ 114,935,387 $ 209,944,105
Source: COAR
Southeast Land-based Seafood Southeast Land-based Seafood (Production, 2006)(Production, 2006)
Pounds Value
Ex-vessel:
Salmon 172,552,615 $91,210,751
Non-salmon 55,284,243 $110,596,941
Total 227,836,857 $201,807,693First Wholesale:
Salmon 131,214,5634 $220,028,636
Non-Salmon 50,320,383 $147,810,251
Total 181,534,917 $367,838,886Source: COAR
Sitka Land-based Processor Sitka Land-based Processor (Production, 2006)(Production, 2006)
Pounds Value
Ex-vessel:
Salmon 27,731,996 $24,902,084
Non-salmon 13,513,073 $33,693,816
Total 41,245,069 $58,595,899First Wholesale:
Salmon 22,234,856 $48,508,479
Non-Salmon 11,518,109 $44,410,580
Total 33,752,965 $92,919,058Source: COAR
SE Ex-Vessel Prices Per PoundSE Ex-Vessel Prices Per Pound2005-20072005-2007
2005 2006 2007King $2.53 $3.37 $3.06
Sockeye $1.05 $1.09 $0.89
Coho $0.95 $1.41 $1.09
Pink $0.12 $0.12 $0.19
Chum $0.30 $0.35 $0.35
Halibut $3.11 $3.80 $4.41
Sablefish $2.30 $2.55 $2.75
Source: ADF&G/NOAA
Sitka Fishermen Statistics Sitka Fishermen Statistics 20062006
• 736 permits fished
• 455 fishermen
• Landed 28.4 million pounds
• Ex-vessel value of $37.6 million
Source: CFEC
Sitka Fishermen Sitka Fishermen Ex-Vessel Earnings 2002-2006Ex-Vessel Earnings 2002-2006
Ex-Vessel Earnings
2002 $ 22,874,149
2003 $ 27,117,481
2004 $ 33,920,720
2005 $ 33,425,575
2006 $ 37,645,735
Source: CFEC
Sitka Seafood in 2007Sitka Seafood in 2007
• Sitka ranks as the 6th largest port in the U.S. based on value and 19th based on volume
• Chum salmon harvest volume down• Pink salmon harvest volume up• Herring harvest volume up in 2007, and a record
quota has been set for the 2008 harvest• King salmon harvests down in 2007• Coho harvests down in 2007• Processing capacity in Sitka has increased
Seafood SummarySeafood Summary• Salmon accounted for 52% of the SE total
ex-vessel value
• Halibut and sablefish accounted for 34% of the region’s total ex-vessel value
• Salmon ex-vessel prices down for all species except pink salmon
• Halibut and sablefish ex-vessel price increase continued
V. Sitka Development Issues V. Sitka Development Issues and Opportunitiesand Opportunities
Development IssuesDevelopment Issues
• Major community development issues are:– Control: What do we have control over in regard to
development?– Choice: What do we choose to support or
discourage?– Current Sitka Players: Most economic development
is done by those already here
• Assessment:– Ask the experts to identify opportunities and barriers
• Surveys and focused discussion groups
Development OpportunitiesDevelopment Opportunities
• Seafood Industry
• Marine Services
• Tourism
• Government (in all its forms)
• Real Estate
Prepared for:Sitka Economic Development Association
Prepared by:McDowell Group, Inc.
March 25, 2008
State of the Sitka Economy, 2008State of the Sitka Economy, 2008