state of the vitivinicultural world in 2020
TRANSCRIPT
STATE OF THE VITIVINICULTURAL WORLDIN 2020
INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION OF VINE AND WINE
Pau Roca Director General of the OIVOIV Press Conference20 April 2021
Topics▪ State of the world vitivinicultural sector in 2020
• Vineyard Surface Area• Wine Production• Wine Consumption• International Trade of Wine
▪ Southern Hemisphere Wine Production: First Estimates 2021▪ Covid-19 and the Wine Sector: Looking Ahead
Vineyard Surface Area
Vineyard Surface Area
The world area under vines, corresponding to the total surface area planted with vines for all purposes (wine, table grapes and raisins), including young vines not yet in production, is estimated at 7.3 mha in 2020. The world vineyard has stabilised since 2017, mainly thanks to the slow down of the Chinese vineyard’s growth and the implementation of the system of new planting authorisation in the EU, which stand for the fifth consecutive year at 3.2 mha. The current stabilisation, however, hides heterogeneous evolutions in different regions of the world.
Evolution of world vineyard surface area
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.
2020Prel.
mha
7.3 mha- 0,2 %/2019
Vineyard Surface Area
Top 6 vine-growing countries represent 56 % of the world vineyard surface area in 2020
Breakdown of vineyard surface area in 2020
World vineyard distribution in 2020
Spain13% France
11%
China11%
Italy10%
Turkey6%
USA5%
Other countries44%
Vineyard Surface Area
*Carried over from latest available data
Major vine-growing countries by surface area, 2010-2020
961
797 785 719
431 405
215 207 194 190
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Spain France China Italy Turkey USA Argentina Chile Portugal Romania
kha
167 151 146 140 122 112 109 103 96 96
0
100
200
300
Iran* India* Australia Moldova South Africa Uzbekistan* Greece* Germany* Russia Afghanistan*
kha
Wine production
Wine Production
In 2020 world wine production, excluding juices and musts, is estimated at 260 mhl, marking an increase of 2.5 mhl compared to the 2019 production.After two consecutive years that can be defined as extremely volatile in 2017 and 2018, global wine production in 2020 is for the second consecutive year slightly below the average observed in the last twenty years.
Evolution of world wine production
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.
2020Prel.
mhl
260 mhl+1% /2019
Wine Production
Three countries - Italy, France and Spain - account for more than halfof the world production.Top 8 wine producing countries vinified 77% of all wine produced in 2020. EU: 165 mhl in 2020 (+8%/2019), 63% of world total
World wine production distribution in 2020
Breakdown of wine production in 2020
Italy19%
France18%
Spain16%
USA9%
Argentina4%
Australia4%
Chile4%
South Africa4%
Other countries
23%
World wine production
49.1 46.640.7
22.8
10.8 10.6 10.4 10.3 8.4 6.6 6.4 4.4 3.6 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.80
10
20
30
40
50
60
Italy France Spain USA Argentina Australia SouthAfrica
Chile Germany China Portugal Russia Romania NewZealand
Hungary Austria Greece Brazil Georgia
mhl
2020/2019 % Var.
3%
11%
21%
-11%-17%
-11%
7%
-13%
2%
-16%
-2% -4% -7%
11%
-12%
-3%-6% -5%
2%
Italy France Spain USA Argentina Australia SouthAfrica
Chile Germany China Portugal Russia Romania NewZealand
Hungary Austria Greece Brazil Georgia
Main wine producing countries in 2020
Wine Consumption
Wine Consumption
World wine consumption in 2020 is estimated at 234 mhl marking a significant decrease of 3% compared to 2019; this year-over year fall of 7 mhl is analogous to the one seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis.
The first year of the COVID-19 sanitary crisis highlighted asymmetrical aggregate consumption behaviours in different countries in the world.
NB: a notable revision in Chinese wine consumption has made China the key driver in lowering consumption levels in the last few years
Evolution of world wine consumption
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
255
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.
2020Prel.
mhl
234 mhl-3% /2019
Wine Consumption
Breakdown of wine consumption in 2020
Wine consumed in 200 countries. First 5 countries account for almost 50% of the world, while the top 10 countries represent 70% in 2020.
World wine consumption distribution in 2020
USA14%
France11%
Italy10%
Germany8%UK
6%China5%
Russia4%
Spain4%
Argentina4%
Australia2%
Other countries
30%
33.0
24.7 24.519.8
13.3 12.4 10.3 9.6 9.45.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1
05
101520253035
mhl
Wine Consumption
0% 0%
8%
0%
-17%
2% 3%
-7%
7%
-4%-1%
-6%
18%
-2% 0% -1%
-19%
-2% -3%
2%
-2%
2%
2020/2019 % Var.
Main wine consuming countries in 2020
Wine Consumption
* Countries with total wineconsumption in 2019 equal to or above 2 mhl
Top countries* by total consumption (mhl) in 2020
2.12.22.32.62.6
3.13.53.53.8
4.34.44.6
5.79.49.6
10.312.4
13.319.8
24.524.7
33.0
Czech RepublicSwedenAustria
BelgiumSwitzerland
South AfricaJapan
NetherlandsRomania
BrazilCanada
PortugalAustralia
ArgentinaSpainRussiaChina
UKGermany
ItalyFrance
USA
mhl
*Countries with consumption above 2 mhl
Consumption per capita +15 (l) in top consuming* countries
1.02.63.1
7.48.6
12.213.9
23.823.223.523.924.2
26.927.027.527.627.8
29.935.7
46.046.6
51.9
ChinaBrazilJapan
South AfricaRussia
USACanada
UKCzech Republic
RomaniaSpain
NetherlandsBelgiumSweden
GermanyArgentinaAustralia
AustriaSwitzerland
FranceItaly
Portugal
l/ capita
International Trade of Wine
International Wine Trade
Disturbing the incremental growth path started in 2010, the global value of wine exports in 2020 decreased by -6.7% compared to 2019 reaching 29.6 bn EUR.
In 2020, notwithstanding a slight decrease (-1.7%) with respect to 2019, global volume exports with 105.8 mhl is in line with the last five-year average.
Evolution of world wine export by volume
Evolution of world wine export by value
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.
2020Prel.
mhl
105.8 mhl-1.7% / 2019
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.
2020Prel.
bn EUR
29.6 bn EUR -6.7% / 2019
International Trade of Wine
Breakdown of global trade value in 2020
Bottled (<2 l)53%
Sparkling9%
BiB4%
Bulk (>10 l)34%
Breakdown of global trade volume in 2020
Bottled (<2 l)70%Sparkling
19%
BiB2%
Bulk (>10 l)9%
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Prel.
mhl
Bottled (<2 l) Sparkling BiB Bulk (>10 l)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Prov.
2020
Bn €
Bottled (<2 l) Sparkling BiB Bulk (>10 l)
-Bottled wines decreased in volume (-2%) and for the first time since 2000, in value (-6% )
-A sharp decline was observed for sparklingwines which decreased by 5% in volume and 15% in value
-BiB was the only category that expanded massively, with an increase in volume (+12%) and in value (+8%)
-Bulk wine exports remained unchanged in terms of volume and increased by 4% in value
Main Wine Exporters
FRA: -11%ITA : -2%ESP: -3%AUS: -2%CHL: -7%USA: -9%NZL: +5%DEU: -16%PRT: +3%ARG: -4%
Top 10 by value
20.8 20.2
13.68.5 7.5
4.0 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1
0
10
20
30
Italy Spain France Chile Australia Argentina USA South Africa Germany Portugal
mhl 2019 2020
Top 10 by volume
8.7
6.2
2.61.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
France Italy Spain Australia Chile USA New Zealand Germany Portugal Argentina
bn €2019 2020
ITA : -2%ESP: -6%FRA: -5%CHL: -2%AUS: +1%ARG: +27%USA: +2%ZAF : -12%DEU: -10%PRT: +5%
0
2
4
6
8
10
France Italy Spain Australia Chile USA New Zealand Germany Portugal Argentina
bn €
Bottled (<2 l) Sparkling BiB Bulk (>10 l)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Italy Spain France Chile Australia Germany USA South Africa Argentina Portugal
mhl
Bottled (<2 l) Sparkling BiB Bulk (>10 l)
Main Wine Exporters
Among the top 10 exporters by volume:
Top bottled →Italy, France, Spain
Top sparkling → Italy, France, Spain
Top bulk → Spain, Australia, Italy
Top BiB →Germany, Italy, Spain
Among the top 10 exporters by value:
Top bottled → France, Italy, Spain
Top sparkling → France, Italy, Spain
Top bulk → Italy, Spain, France
Top BiB→ Spain, Australia, New Zealand
Top 10 by value
Top 10 by volume
Main Wine Importers
USA: -11%GBR: +4%DEU: -2%CAN: -1%JPN: -15%NLD: +9%BEL: -2%RUS: -9%FRA: -12%
14.6 14.112.3
6.34.7 4.5 4.3 3.5 3.0 2.7
0
5
10
15
20
UK Germany USA France Netherlands Canada China Russia Belgium Portugal
mhl2019 2020
Top 10 by volume
5.23.8
2.61.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8
0
2
4
6
8
USA UK Germany Canada China Japan Netherlands Belgium Russia France
bn EUR2019 2020
Top 10 by value
GBR: +4%DEU: -5%USA: 0%FRA: -14%NLD: +11%CAN: +8%CHN: -30%RUS: -21%BEL: -4%PRT: -8%
Main Wine Importers
Among the top 10 importers by volume:
Top bottled →UK, USA, Germany
Top sparkling → UK, USA, Germany
Top bulk → Germany, UK, France
Top BiB → Sweden, Germany, France
Among the top 10 importers by value:
Top bottled → USA, UK, Germany
Top sparkling → USA, UK, Japan
Top bulk → UK, Germany, USA
Top BiB→ Sweden, Germany, UK
Top 10 by value
Top 10 by volume
Market Internationalisation Index
45%
This market internationalisation index is constructed as the ratio between the volumes of world wine exports and world wine consumption.
In 2020, the wine market internationalisation index is at 45%, meaning that on average in 2020, of every 2 bottles of wine consumed in the world about 1 has crossed (at least) one border, that is almost half the wine consumed in the world is imported wine.
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.
2020Prel.
Market internationalisation index
Wine Production in Southern HemisphereFirst estimates 2021
Southern Hemisphere Wine Production 2021
Prov.
2020
Prel.
2021
Trend
2021
% Var.
21-20 Trend 2000-2021
Argentina 10 796 10 106 -6.4%
Australia 10 600 12 553 18.4%
Brazil 1 923 3 300 71.6%
Chile 10 337 11 888 15.0%
New Zealand 3 290 3 000 -8.8%
South Africa 10 425 10 500 0.7%
Uruguay 700 710 1.4%
The impact of Covid 19 on the Wine sector
Looking Ahead
Impact of Covid-19 on the Wine sector: Key Trends
1. Heterogeneous consumption behaviours in 2020 across countries depending on:• Consumption habits (weight of wine over total alcoholic beverages, weight of Horeca channel, etc.)• Length and strictness of lockdown measures and associated policies such as sales bans• Weight of tourism in national wine consumption
2. Distribution channel shift:• Full or partial closure of the Horeca channel causing a fall in sales in value, and to a lesser extent in volume.• Increase in wine sales via e-commerce and large retailers, only partially compensating the losses caused by the closure of the
Horeca channel
3. Volume vs value: premium wine suffered the most from the closure of restaurants and tasting rooms, while large producers that owned the off-premise channel with large partner wholesalers performed well
4. Sparkling wine is the category of wines that suffered the most (champagne shipments -18% in volume, 1 billion euros of losses), barring Prosecco (+4% in export vol, -3% in export value). Contrarily, bag-in-box wine sales have experienced a sharp increase in sales volume and value in US, UK, Japan and Scandinavian countries
5. Shifts in global trade patterns due to:• Reaction of a decrease in global demand due to Covid-19 crisis• New trade barriers (US retaliatory tariffs, China tariffs on Australian wine, Brexit)
Impact of Covid-19 on the Wine Sector: Challenges Ahead
The new “normality” will be different from what we left: the lessons learned from this crisis will shape the future of the sector
Wine producers
• Diversification of markets and distribution channels• Integration of online and offline services• Data and technology• Resilience and adaptability
Governments
• Wine intrinsically deep-rooted in our culture, wine making needs to be considered as an essential activity• After a crisis there are losers and winners, wineries relying on the HoReCa channel, not linked to large distribution channels and not
able to sell via e-commerce need support.• Sustainability• Digitalisation• Anti – alcohol policies• International cooperation
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION OF VINE AND WINE
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION OF VINE AND WINE