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State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Dunedin Landcare Research LINK seminar Wellington, Friday 24 th April 2015

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Page 1: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity

Susan Walker Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Dunedin Landcare Research LINK seminar Wellington, Friday 24th April 2015

Page 2: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Thanks People Rachel McClellan, John Sawyer, James Reardon, John Barkla, John Leathwick, Nick Head, Ingrid Grüner, Phil Lyver, Hendrik Moller, Sarah Richardson, Andrea Byrom, Bill Lee, Adrian Monks, Andrew Gormley, John Innes, Rob Schuckard, David Melville, Phil Battley, Hugh Robertson, Adrian Riegen, Richard Allibone, Ron Moorhouse, Josh Fyfe, Kath Walker, Graeme Elliott, Liz Parlato, Craig Wilson, Kate Steffens, Simon Moore, Paul Bradfield, Jessica Scrimgeour, Andrew Smart, Brian Rance, Jeremy Rolfe, Rod Hitchmough, Avi Holzapfel, Richard Ewans, Dave Kelly, Theo Stephens, Ellen Cieraad, Joy Comrie, Andy Hutcheon, Jo Monks, Dave Towns, Hermann Frank, Deb Wilson, Richard Maloney, Fraser Maddigan, Anita Spenser Organisations Ornithological Society of NZ, DOC, Landcare Research, NIWA, Wildland Consultants, University of Otago, University of Canterbury, Massey University, Kea Conservation Trust

Page 3: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

New Zealand’s biota

“Exquisitely strange”

Highly endemic Highly threatened

Bradshaw et al. 2010. Evaluating the relative environmental impact of countries. PLoS ONE 5.

Page 4: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Vulnerability

vulnerability gradient

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

ROBUST VULNERABLE

NZ’s indigenous biodiversity

‘the variety of life’ or ‘the full range’

Page 5: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Vulnerability

vulnerability gradient

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

ROBUST VULNERABLE

NZ’s indigenous birds

moa huia

paradise duck pukeko black backed gull

saddleback kokako fantail weka rock wren

tui robin kaka

Page 6: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Humans settle (c. 780 BP)

Ship rats & pigs

Future state II

Future state I Pākehā arrive (c. 1850 AD) NOW

‘Green revolution’ (modern agriculture)

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Page 7: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

LOSS

Humans settle (c. 780 BP)

Ship rats & pigs

Future state II

Future state I Pākehā arrive (c. 1850 AD) NOW

‘Green revolution’ (modern agriculture)

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

Page 8: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Analogy

Page 9: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

LOSS

Focus

Future state I: future representation

NOW: current representation

Page 10: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

LOSS

This talk Part 1: Indigenous habitats and species between the lines Part 2: A vulnerability-based framework to make the most difference, and its information needs

Page 11: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Indigenous cover in land environments 500 Level IV Land environments of LENZ

Page 12: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

% in

dige

nous

la

nd co

ver l

eft

RETAINED

CLEARED

500 Land environments (LENZ) SAFE VULNERABLE

TO CLEARANCE

Indigenous cover 2002

Indigenous cover 2012

Less than 30% indigenous cover left = 57%

Walker et al. 2006. Recent loss of indigenous cover in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 30: 169–177 Updated by Cieraad et al. (2014, in prep)

Indigenous cover in land environments

Page 13: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Cieraad, Walker, Price & Barringer 2015. An updated assessment of indigenous cover remaining and legal protection in New Zealand’s land environments. New Zealand Journal of Ecology in press

% in

dige

nous

la

nd co

ver l

eft

RETAINED

CLEARED

500 Land environments (LENZ) SAFE

VULNERABILITY TO CLEARANCE

Indigenous cover in land environments

Page 14: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Indigenous cover change in land environments (LCDB4) 2002 - 2012

Cieraad, Walker, Price & Barringer 2015. An updated assessment of indigenous cover

remaining and legal protection in New Zealand’s land environments. New Zealand Journal of

Ecology in press.

Page 15: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Indigenous grassland loss rate increasing

Page 16: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1990 – 2001 2001 – 2008

Urban Mining

Cropland

Pasture

Wilding trees

Planted forest Rate

of c

onve

rsio

n (h

ecta

res p

er a

nnum

)

Study area

Weeks et al. 2013. Past and recent conversion of indigenous grasslands in the South Island. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 30: 127–138

Indigenous grassland loss rate increasing

Annual conversion rate

Page 17: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

2012

20

13

North Canterbury South Canterbury Otago

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

20

11

2012

20

13

North Canterbury South Canterbury Otago

Primary driver of conversion More cows = more land

Cows ‘Effective hectares’

Published statistics from LIC/Dairy NZ: New Zealand Dairy Statistics Annual Reports

Tota

l cow

s (nu

mbe

r of a

nim

als)

Tota

l effe

ctiv

e h

ecta

res (

ha)

Year Year

Page 18: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

CLEARED

500 Land environments (LENZ)

Legal protection 2012 (>96% DOC, <1% Councils, 2% Nga Whenua Rahui, 1% QEII)

% p

rote

cted

Legal protection across land environments

2012

Cieraad, Walker, Price & Barringer 2015. An updated assessment of indigenous cover remaining and legal protection in New Zealand’s land environments. New Zealand Journal of Ecology in press

Page 19: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

CLEARED

500 Land environments (LENZ)

% p

rote

cted

Legal protection across land environments

2012 2004

Little change in low, flat, warm environments

Increase in high elevation (esp. SI high country)

Cieraad, Walker, Price & Barringer 2015. An updated assessment of indigenous cover remaining and legal protection in New Zealand’s land environments. New Zealand Journal of Ecology in press

Page 20: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Cieraad, Walker, Price & Barringer 2015. An updated assessment of indigenous cover

remaining and legal protection in New Zealand’s land environments. New Zealand

Journal of Ecology in press

Status of land environments

“… a number of lowland and montane environments have

less indigenous vegetation and protection than was

previously estimated”

Page 21: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Status of naturally uncommon ecosystems

Page 22: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Status of naturally uncommon ecosystems

Inland saline habitat, Central Otago

Page 23: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Pic of ephemeral wetland here

Status of naturally uncommon ecosystems

Ephemeral wetland, Ashburton Basin

Page 24: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Outwash plain, Upper Waitaki basin

Status of naturally uncommon ecosystems

Page 25: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2012

Not threatened (37%)

Vulnerable (14%)

Endangered (24%)

Critical (25%)

Holdaway et al. 2012. Status assessment of NZ’s naturally uncommon ecosystems. Conservation Biology 26: 619–629.

IUCN categories

Status of naturally uncommon ecosystems

Page 26: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Status of naturally uncommon ecosystems Few are mapped, no formal status monitoring

Upper Waitaki basin

Page 27: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Status of species

Page 28: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

2013

2012

Reptiles (97 taxa)

2012

Birds (264 taxa)

Different biota, different vulnerabilities

2012

Department of Conservation: http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/conservation/nz-threat-classification-system/

Not threatened Declining Threatened Extinct

‘At Risk’

Naturally uncommon

Relict or recovering

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Vascular plants (2326 taxa)

Freshwater fish (52 taxa)

Page 29: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

10 y

ears

Department of Conservation: http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/conservation/nz-threat-classification-system/

Not threatened Declining Threatened Extinct

‘At Risk’

Naturally uncommon

Relict or recovering

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Vascular plants (2326 taxa)

2002

2005

2008

2012

“…the majority of … new Threatened taxa are genuinely at risk of extinction. Many … restricted to the eastern South Island, especially the intermontane basins …”

(de Lange et al. 2009)

Page 30: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Changing threat status assessments

10 y

ears

Department of Conservation: http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/conservation/nz-threat-classification-system/

Not threatened Declining Threatened Extinct

‘At Risk’

Naturally uncommon

Relict or recovering

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Vascular plants (2326 taxa)

2002

2005

2008

2012

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Freshwater fish (52 taxa)

2002

2005

2008

2013

11 y

ears

Page 31: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Threatened fish endemic to South Island inland basins

Lowland longjaw galaxiids (x2 subspp.)

Bignose galaxiid

Upland longjaw galaxiid (x2 subspp.)

Canterbury mudfish

Goodman et al. 2014. Conservation status of New Zealand freshwater fish, 2013. New Zealand Threat Classification Series 7. 12 p

Flathead, Dusky, Eldon’s, Roundhead (x4? subspp.) galaxiids

Gollum galaxiid

Shortjaw kokopu

Page 32: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Declining endemic fish in South Island basins

Inanga

Koaro

Torrentfish

Canterbury galaxiid

Bluegill bully Redfin bully

Goodman et al. 2014. Conservation status of New Zealand freshwater fish, 2013. New Zealand Threat Classification Series 7. 12 p

Longfin eel

Page 33: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Hitchmough et al. 2013. Conservation status of New Zealand reptiles, 2012. New Zealand Threat Classification Series 2. 16 p Department of Conservation: http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/conservation/nz-threat-classification-system/

Not threatened Declining Threatened Extinct

‘At Risk’

Naturally uncommon

Relict or recovering

2012

10 y

ears

2002

2005

2008

Reptiles (97 species)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Page 34: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Canterbury lizard species

Common name Status 2013 Status 2009

Rangitata skink Nationally Critical

Rough gecko Nationally Vulnerable Declining

West Coast green gecko Nationally Vulnerable Declining

Scree skink Nationally Vulnerable Declining

Spotted skink "Mackenzie Basin" Nationally Vulnerable

Spotted skink "Central Canterbury" Nationally Vulnerable

Large Otago gecko Declining

Cryptic skink Declining Not Threatened

Jewelled gecko Declining

Canterbury gecko Declining

Green skink Declining

Southern long-toed skink Declining

Common skink clade 4 Declining Not Threatened

Common skink clade 5 Declining Not Threatened

Marlborough mini gecko Not Threatened

Common gecko Not Threatened

Southern Alps gecko Not Threatened

Pygmy gecko Not Threatened

McCann's skink Not Threatened

Acknowledgement: Dr Marieke Lettink, Fauna Finders Hitchmough et al. 2013. Conservation status of New Zealand reptiles, 2012. New Zealand Threat Classification Series 2. 16 p

Page 35: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Department of Conservation: http://www.doc.govt.nz/publications/conservation/nz-threat-classification-system/

Not threatened Declining Threatened Extinct

‘At Risk’

Naturally uncommon

Relict or recovering

2012

10 y

ears

2002

2005

2008

Reptiles (97 species)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Birds (264 species)

2012

10 y

ears

2002

2005

2008

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Page 36: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

© Craig McKenzie

Implications of low numbers

Traill et al. 2010. Pragmatic conservation targets in a rapidly changing world.

Conservation Biology 143: 28–34

Page 37: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Implications of low numbers

0

100

200

300

2002 2012

plants

reptiles fw. fish

birds

Num

ber o

f thr

eate

ned

taxa

Number of NZ taxa recognised as threatened

Year

Page 38: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Two areas of progress 1. Stabilisation of some of the most charismatic of New

Zealand’s threatened species

Page 39: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Burns et al. 2009. In: Fencing for conservation. New York, Springer. Pp. Bellingham et al. 2010. Island restoration. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 34: 11

Kelly & Sullivan 2010. Progress and prospects in NZ ecology. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 34: 20

Stabilisation of some threatened species

uncommon relict

0

5

10

15

20

Not threatened Naturally Recovering Declining Threatened

Offshore & near-shore islands

Number of taxa translocated to 2010 (of weta, amphibians, reptiles, & birds)

Num

ber o

f tax

a tr

anslo

cate

d Predator-fenced mainland

Page 40: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Native waders Occupancy

South Island pied oystercatcher (Declining)

Page 41: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Native waders Occupancy

Pied stilt (Declining)

Page 42: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Native waders Occupancy

Banded dotterel (Nationally Vulnerable)

Page 43: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Native waders Occupancy

Wrybill (Nationally Vulnerable)

Page 44: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Native waders Occupancy

Black stilt (Nationally Critical)

Page 45: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Terns and gulls Occupancy

Black-billed gull (Nationally Critical)

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Page 46: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1973 1978 1984 1989 1995 2000 2006

Mataura

Waiau

Aparima

Oreti

Num

ber o

f bird

s

McLellan 2008.The ecology and management of Southland’s black billed gulls. PhD thesis, University of Otago

Counts 1977 – 2007

Declining 6% p.a (84% over 30 years)

Terns and gulls Black-billed gull (Nationally Critical) on four Southland rivers

Page 47: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Counts repeated at monitoring sites 4 – 18 times, 1962 – 2008 8 significant decreases

Annual rate of change (%) +/- 1.96 * SE

Ashburton (north branch) Ashley

Cameron Conway

Hakataramea Opihi

Twizel

-20 -10 0 10 20

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

Low

flow

Ahuriri Ashburton

Cass Eglinton

Makarora Manuherikia

Ohau Orari

Pukaki Rees

Shotover Tekapo

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

Med

ium

flow

Dart Hopkins

Hunter Hurunui

Matukituki

o

o

o

o

o

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

Hig

h flo

w

Rakaia (lower) Rangitata (lower)

Tasman Waimakariri (lower)

Waitaki

o

o

o

o

o

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

very

hig

h increase decrease

only site with sustained predator control (aimed at mustelids)

Terns and gulls Black-fronted terns (Nationally Endangered) 29 South Island rivers

O'Donnell & Hoare 2011. Population trends in black-fronted terns. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 35: 30–43

FLO

W

Page 48: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Terns and gulls Occupancy

Black-fronted tern (Nationally Endangered)

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Page 49: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Increased in most places

Decreased in most places

Increased in some places,

decreased in others

Decrease Increase

Forest and alpine birds Change in occupancy 1970s to 2000s

Walker and Monks in prep. Bull et al. 1985. The atlas of bird distribution in New Zealand. Wellington,

New Zealand, The Ornithological Society of New Zealand Robertson et al. 2007. Atlas of bird distribution in New Zealand 1999–2004.

Wellington, New Zealand, The Ornithological Society of New Zealand

Page 50: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Tokoeka −2% pa

Great spotted kiwi −2% pa

Unmanaged Brown kiwi −3% pa

Remaining extensive kiwi populations

Holzapfel et al. 2008. Kiwi (Apteryx spp.) recovery plan. Threatened Species Recovery Plan 60. Department of Conservation

Years

% re

mai

ning

Projected decline curves

Page 51: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Changes in common forest birds over 3 decades with possum and wasp invasion

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1974-1984 baseline

Significant decrease

Aver

age

num

ber o

f bird

s

Mt Misery, Nelson Lakes National Park

5-minute bird

counts, 33 years,

1974 – 2007

Declines not evident above

1000m

Significant increase

No significant change

Elliott et al. 2010. Declines in common widespread birds in a mature tempoerate forest. Biological Conservation 143: 2119–2126

Page 52: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Kaka sex ratios

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Stafford Haast kiwi sanctuary

Waitutu Nelson Lakes

Increasing time since possum invasion

Fem

ale:

mal

e ra

tio

South Westland possum front c. 1990

Elliott 2010 & 2013, DOC unpublished data

Without (left) and with (right) possums

Recent possum arrival St

oat-

& p

ossu

m-fr

ee is

land

s

Hope (<3% possum RTC

maintained with 1080)

Hope

200

7

Hope

201

3

Island populations

Page 53: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,
Page 54: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Kea disappearances, St Arnaud Range Repeated census (1988, 2011)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1998 2011

11

3 different

birds

Num

ber o

f fem

ale

bird

s

Consecutive beech masts 1999 & 2000

Beech mast 2006

Kemp, 2013. An update on the kea population at Nelson Lakes National Park. DOC unpublished data

Page 55: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Halting or reversing mainland forest species declines is (largely) a matter of scaling up

Time

without action

present state

with action

difference made

Best

present state

with action

difference made

without action

Better

with action

present state

without action

difference made

Good

Areas of progress 2. Advances in mammalian predator management

Page 56: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1080 drops 1998, 2000, 2004, 2009, fenn trapping for stoats from 2000

Forest bird numbers under sustained pest control, mid-Landsborough, South Westland

Significant increase Significant decrease

O’Donnell & Hoare 2012. Bird recovery after pest control. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 36: 131–140

Page 57: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Forest bird relative abundance in four mainland islands under sustained pest control

Rela

tiive

ab

unda

nce

of b

irds

Time since onset of treatment (years) Time since onset of treatment (years)

Podocarp forests Boundary Stream, Hawke’s Bay & Trounson Kauri Park, Northland

Beech forests Hurunui , inland Canterbury &

Rotoiti, Nelson Lakes National Park

Difference between mainland island and nearby non-treatment area over time

Bett

er

Wor

se

Innes et al. 2010. What limits forest birds? New Zealand Journal of Ecology 34: 86–114

Page 58: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Kaka mortality and recruitment with and without predator control 1996–2000

No predator control

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mortality (deaths)

Recruitment (births)

Predator control

after Moorhouse et al. 2003. Control of introduced mammalian predators improves kaka Nestor meridionalis breeding success…Biological Conservation 1190: 33–44.

Page 59: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Saw

yer C

k

Glas

seye

Ck

Kaka

po

Bulle

r Riv

er

Happ

y Va

lley

Goat

cree

k

6 M

ile

Mao

ri Gu

lly

Kara

mea

Blu

ffs

Glas

seye

Cre

ek u

pper

Mou

ntai

n Cr

eek

Mac

kay

dow

ns

St A

ndre

ws

Bellb

ird ri

dge

Char

min

g cr

eek

Heap

hy

Mea

n an

nual

chan

ge in

den

sity

per 1

00m

2

Annual control Non-treatment Standard/biennial control ops

Powelliphanta snail populations (change in number per 100m2 per year)

Increasing frequency of possum control No possum control

Bockett et al. 2004. Is possum control protecting Powelliphanta snails on the West Coast? DOC, unpublished data

North Westland, 14 species,

16 sites, monitored between

1994 & 2003

Page 60: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Pittosporum patulum with and without possum control

0

50

100

150

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

no possum control

possum control

200

250

300

350

400

possum control

No. LIVE plants

No. DEAD plants

no possum control

Num

ber o

f pla

nts

Num

ber o

f pla

nts

Populations in Dobson, Huxley & Temple valleys Upper Waitaki, 2003 – 2010

Comrie, Head. DOC unpublished data

Page 61: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

100

200

300

2002 2012

plants

reptiles fw. fish

birds

Num

ber o

f thr

eate

ned

taxa

Number of NZ taxa recognised as threatened

Year

Three credible reasons for growing numbers of species in decline

Page 62: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Reason No 1. Landscape-scale predator management evades us

Page 63: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Andrew Smart, DOC, unpublished data FOR ESTIMATED DECLINES IN THE ABSENCE OF MANAGEMENT SEE

Whitehead 2010. Large-scale predator control increases population viability of a rare New Zealand riverine duck. Austral Ecology 35: 722–730

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Joes Arthur

North Branch Worlesley/Castle Cleddau

Neale Burn

Clinton

Num

ber o

f pai

rs p

er k

m

Pairs per km of rivers searched

Totals 28 pairs known 2007 44 pairs known 2011

Numbers of Fiordland whio in managed populations (stoat trapping, translocations)

Page 64: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

1970s 2000s Change

Walker and Monks in prep. based on Ornithological Society of New Zealand data

in Bull et al. 1985 and Robertson et al. 2007

Blue duck (Nationally Vulnerable)

Whio Occupancy

Page 65: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,
Page 66: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Grand and Otago skinks in an experimental management trial, Macraes Flat, Otago

predator-proof fence vs

intensive trapping vs

unmanaged

Grand and Otago

Skink Recovery Group, DOC

unpublished data

Page 67: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Capt

ures

per

100

trap

nig

hts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Copper skink Not Threatened

0

1

2

3

4

5

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Whitaker’s skink Nationally Endangered

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Brown skink Declining

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

Common skink Declining Hoare et al. 2007. Attempting to manage

complex predator-prey interactions. Journal of Wildlife Management 71: 1576–1584

Four species of lizard Pukerua Bay, near Wellington, 1984–2006

Records the disappearance of the

last mainland population of Whitaker’s skink

Page 68: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

100

200

300

2002 2012

plants

reptiles fw. fish birds

Num

ber o

f thr

eate

ned

taxa

Number of NZ taxa recognised as threatened

Year

Reason No 2. Habitat conversion and species overexploitation continues

High country tussock and freshwater habitat conversion

Fyke net of longfin eels

Page 69: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Longfin eel (Declining)

Page 70: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Common skink, Rangitata riverbed Oligosoma aff. polychroma Clade 5 (Declining) 20 ha of remaining lizard habitat on the Canterbury Plains, cleared Autumn 2014

Page 71: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Pillow pimelea in the Upper Clutha Pimelea sericeovillosa subsp. pulvinaris (Declining)

Largest remaining population (10,000+ plants, Upper Clutha)

disked in autumn 2014

Page 72: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

0

0

0

00

00

00

0

0

0

‘Greenness’ changes in production landscapes,1970s to mid-2000s

Largest increase

Greatest decrease

Growing season length

Base (winter)

greenness

Exploratory work with Robert Buitenwerf and Adrian Monks

Land use intensification also entails habitat conversion

Page 73: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Canterbury plains ‘dryland’ kanuka remnants

Page 74: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Watering the Eyrewell Scientific Reserve

Page 75: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Culverden Scientific Reserve’s

exotic grass sward

Page 76: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Shrubby tororaro, Kaitorete Spit (Muehlenbeckia astonii, Nationally Endangered)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Plan

t vol

ume

in m

3

Fenced plants (n = 60)

Unfenced plants (n = 60)

median size (fenced)

median size (unfenced)

Plant dimensions 2001 – 2012

Spenser, Head. DOC unpublished data

Recovery of plants from browse, but no recruitment…

Page 77: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Lepidium solandri , Nationally Endangered (photo: John Barkla)

Page 78: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

0

51015

202530

35

Num

ber o

f pla

nts

Num

ber o

f pla

nts

Num

ber o

f pla

nts

0

5

10

15

20

25

050100150200250300350

01020304050607080

010203040506070

2001 2013Time

2001 2013Time

Craig Wilson, DOC unpublished data

Dryland cress in Central Otago (Lepidium solandri , Nationally Endangered)

Rapid, simultaneous demise of remaining

populations

Plant counts at five remaining Central Otago populations, 2001–2013

Page 79: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Reason No 3. Climate change

Page 80: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

9

3 2 2

1

5

8

2

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

10

Num

ber o

f bird

taxa

cha

nged

Mor

e th

reat

ened

Le

ss th

reat

ened

Bird threat status changes 2008 to 2012, by group

Page 81: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Antipodean wandering albatross

Males

Females

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Males

Females

Gibson’s Wandering albatross

100

200

300

400

500

600

Wandering albatrosses Declines and diminishing sex ratios Numbers of birds estimated using mark-recapture methods, 1995 to present

Num

ber o

f bird

s

Kath Walker & Graeme Elliot, personal unpublished data

Num

ber o

f bird

s

Page 82: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Percentage of spring eggs (almost) fledged in summer

Cuthbert & Somer, Bradfield, DOC unpublished data

Hutton’s shearwaters in two Kaikoura colonies

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Kowhai River Colony (no stoat control)

Shearwater Stream Colony (stoat control since 2009)

% o

f egg

s

2013

Breeding success is ‘episodic’ and not explained by predation

Page 83: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Henrik Moller et al., University of Otago, unpublished data

Titi on Rakiura over 70 years Harvest success from 9 ‘harvest diaries’

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.3

1938 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 1948

Harv

est s

ucce

ss

(Cat

ch p

er u

nit e

ffort

)

Page 84: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Summing up Part I

Growing numbers of species in decline

• More and more New Zealand species are known to be, or are being, reduced to low numbers

• Predators, habitat conversion and overexploitation are the major causes

• Climate change is starting to exacerbate the effects of both

Page 85: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

Goals

NZ’s indigenous biodiversity

‘the variety of life’ or ‘the full range’

Page 86: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

Goals

LOSS

POSSIBLE GOAL I

NOW: current representation

‘Reverse the decline’

Page 87: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

LOSS

Goals

POSSIBLE GOAL II: ‘Halt the decline’

NOW: current representation

‘Halt the decline’

Page 88: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re

of a

bund

ance

LOSS

POSSIBLE GOAL III

NOW: current representation

Goals ‘Slow the decline’

Page 89: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re o

f abu

ndan

ce

LOSS

LOSS

DIFFERENCE MADE

Reverse the decline

Do nothing

Difference is made by changing the fate of vulnerable biota

Page 90: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re o

f abu

ndan

ce

LOSS

LOSS

Halt the decline

Do nothing

Difference is made by changing the fate of vulnerable biota

Page 91: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re o

f abu

ndan

ce

LOSS

LOSS

Slow the decline

Do nothing

Difference is made by changing the fate of vulnerable biota

Maximise difference to the biodiversity goal (not to a site or sites)

Page 92: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re o

f abu

ndan

ce

LOSS

LOSS

Slow the decline

Do nothing

Difference is made by changing the fate of vulnerable biota

NOW: current representation FUTURE

Maximise difference relative to the future state, not the current state

Page 93: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

ROBUST VULNERABLE

Som

e m

easu

re o

f abu

ndan

ce

Do nothing

LOSS DIFFERENCE MADE

Do worse than nothing

Pressey et al. 2004. Ecology Letters 7: 1035–1046; Walker et al. 2007. Conservation Biology 22: 48-59; Weeks et al. 2013. Environmental Conservation 40: 84-95

Displacement activity kills “By failing to avert present or impending threats while pre-empting [actions] that could be more

effective… contributions can be irretrievably negative” (Pressey 2013)

Difference is made by changing the fate of vulnerable biota

Page 94: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Four things you need to know

Page 95: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Four things you need to know

• Present and impending threats, and where

• What biota are rare and vulnerable to those threats, and where

• Effect of prospective management on threats

• Effects of threats (with and without management) on biota

Page 96: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Pressures (e.g. pests, weeds,

land clearance)

Current native biodiversity

Future native biodiversity

Effects of management on

pressures [Management-

Pressure Models]

Effects of pressures on biodiversity

[Biodiversity Loss Models]

Pressures with management

time NOW FUTURE

Vital Sites & Actions general framework

Page 97: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Threats (distribution & abundances of

predators)

Current native species

distributions (& abundances)

Future native species

distributions (& abundances)

Effects of management on

threats [Management-

Pressure Models]

Effects of threats on species

[Biodiversity Loss Models]

Threats with management

time NOW FUTURE

• Present and impending threats, and where

• What biota are rare and vulnerable to those threats, and where

Vital Sites & Actions – a formulation

Page 98: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Threats (distribution & abundances of

predators)

Effects of management on

threats [Management-

Pressure Models]

Effects of threats on species

[Biodiversity Loss Models]

Threats with management

time NOW FUTURE

• Present and impending threats, and where.

• What biota are rare and vulnerable to those threats, and where.

• Effect of prospective management on threats.

• Effects of varying levels of threats on biota.

Current native species

distributions (& abundances)

Future native species

distributions (& abundances)

Vital Sites & Actions – a formulation

Page 99: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Threats (distribution & abundances of

predators)

Effects of management on

threats [Management-

Pressure Models]

Effects of threats on species

[Biodiversity Loss Models]

Threats with management

time NOW FUTURE

• Present and impending threats, and where.

• What biota are rare and vulnerable to those threats, and where.

• Effect of prospective management on threats.

• Effects of varying levels of threats on biota.

Current native species

distributions (& abundances)

Future native species

distributions (& abundances)

Vital Sites & Actions – a formulation

Page 100: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Where it’s at

Page 101: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Significance

Benefits of management

Vital sites

Outputs Planning

Reporting

Difference made by actions

Page 102: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Inputs: identifies the essential biodiversity information for conservation action

Walker et al. 2012. NZ Journal of Ecology 36: 243-251.

Page 103: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

designed to evolve and upgrade

Brings inventory, monitoring, management & research together •Targeted inventory & monitoring for species and threats to them •Monitoring operation outcomes •Research and management experiments to improve models (pressure-biodiversity effects and management-pressure effects) and data •Improved concepts and analysis methods for disparate data sources •New spatial condition & pattern frameworks and information etc

Journey not end point

Page 104: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Pressures (e.g. pests, weeds,

land clearance)

Current native biodiversity

Future native biodiversity

Effects of management on

pressures [Management-

Pressure Models]

Effects of pressures on biodiversity

[Biodiversity Loss Models]

Pressures with management

time NOW FUTURE

Information for conservation action

Page 105: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Information for conservation action

• Must focus on vulnerable biodiversity (and threats to it)

• Requires broader and different information than state and trend reporting, and is challenging

• Can be built over time, by multiple contributors, adding new areas of endeavour and new information

Summing up Part 2

Page 106: State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s ... · State, trends and vulnerability in New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity Susan Walker . Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research,

Thanks People Rachel McClellan, John Sawyer, James Reardon, John Barkla, John Leathwick, Nick Head, Ingrid Grüner, Phil Lyver, Hendrik Moller, Sarah Richardson, Andrea Byrom, Bill Lee, Adrian Monks, Andrew Gormley, John Innes, Rob Schuckard, David Melville, Phil Battley, Hugh Robertson, Adrian Riegen, Richard Allibone, Ron Moorhouse, Josh Fyfe, Kath Walker, Graeme Elliott, Liz Parlato, Craig Wilson, Kate Steffens, Simon Moore, Paul Bradfield, Jessica Scrimgeour, Andrew Smart, Brian Rance, Jeremy Rolfe, Rod Hitchmough, Avi Holzapfel, Richard Ewans, Dave Kelly, Theo Stephens, Ellen Cieraad, Joy Comrie, Andy Hutcheon, Jo Monks, Dave Towns, Hermann Frank, Deb Wilson, Richard Maloney, Fraser Maddigan, Anita Spenser Organisations Ornithological Society of NZ, DOC, Landcare Research, NIWA, Wildland Consultants, University of Otago, University of Canterbury, Massey University, Kea Conservation Trust