statement of qualifications - … · lworld demand and supply of petrochemicals, ... lthe economic...

Statement of Qualifications

Phone (905) 631-6290Fax (905) 631-6051

3600 Billings Court, Suite 104Burlington, OntarioL7L 2H3

Econometric Research LimitedEconomic and Management Consultants

Econometric Research Limited

ERL Econometric Research LimitedEconomic Consultants

THE COMPANY

Econometric Research Limited was started by Dr. A.A. Kubursi in 1972. Since then, Dr. Kubursiand his team of economists and engineers have been involved in many projects for governmentministries, international organizations, and private sector clients. Today, ERL combines experience andknowledge with proven systems for effective analysis to assist in sound decision making.

THE APPROACH

Econometric Research Limited works in close cooperation with its clients in the identification,definition and execution of its projects and assignments. ERL systems and models can be applied to yourneeds. ERL has a core team of professionals and can call upon a large pool of specialists to meet thespecific needs of clients.

CAPABILITIES

Econometric Research Limited has the resources to provide expert and integrated consulting andresearch services on a wide range of problems and needs faced by private and public sector managers andpublic policy makers. In particular, ERL has extensive experience and expertise in the following areas:

m Economic Impact Analysis

m Tourism Studies

m Health Care Studies

m Regional and Local Economic Analysis

m Environmental Impact Studies

m Cost Benefit Analysis

m Feasibility Studies

m Models for Forecasting and Simulation

m Taxation Studies

m Meeting Your Needs


CLIENTS (partial list) l Ontario Government Ministries:l Energyl Natural Resourcesl Recreation and Tourisml Treasury, Economics and Intergovernmental Affairsl Transportation and Communicationsl Industry and Tradel Corporate and Commercial Affairsl Environment and Energyl Northern Development and Minesl Culture and Citizenship

l Tourism Ontariol Tourism Canadal Ontario Hydrol Ontario Economic Councill Canadian Chemical Producers Associationl United Nations Industrial Development Organizationl United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asial Ministry of Industry, Indonesial Ministry of Planning, Kuwaitl Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Arabial National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailandl Petroleum Information Committee, Kuwaitl Kuwait Chambers of Commerce and Industryl Alberta Economic Development and Tourisml Cree Indians of Quebecl Town of Banffl Town of Timminsl Toronto Harbour Commissionl Coopers & Lybrand Consulting Groupl Acres Internationall Acres/Bechtell City of Windsorl Niagara Fallsl Thunder Bay Harbour Commissionl Northern Ontario Tourism Outfitters (NOTO)l PKMG Peat Marwick Stevenson & Kelloggl Canada Climate Centrel Canadian Centre for Inland Watersl QUNOl Council of Ontario Universitiesl P.T. Kearneyl World Bankl VHB Research and Consultingl International Labour Organization


l The Goodmans Groupl National Round Table on the Environment and the Economyl Centre for Sustainable Developmentl Canadian Environmental Law Associationl ARA Consulting Groupl Harvard Universityl AVENOR Corporationl Town of Kapuskasingl Sault Ste. Marie Economic Development Corporationl Thunder Bay Economic Development Corporationl Ernst and Youngl Deloitte & Touchel Western Management Consultantsl The Strategy Groupl Ontario Casino Corporationl Forestry Canadal The Economic Planning Group of Canadal Hicklingl United Nations Environmental Programl International Development Research Centre (IDRC)l Ontario Waste Management Corporationl Research Resolutionsl Sustainable Futuresl INDECOl Waterworks Department, City of Edmontonl Environment Canadal Tripple 5 Corporation, Albertal J.E. Hanna & Associatesl Parlee McLaws, Albertal ING, Toronto Ontariol TransAlta Utilities Corporation, Albertal Canderell Revenue Properties Corporationl Anchor Gamingl Gaming Venture Groupl Lake Abitibi Model Forestl International Monetary Fundl Canadian Forest Servicel Natural Resources Canadal Environment Canadal Heathmount AE Corporationl The Corporate Research Groupl Price Waterhouse Coopersl Town of Cochranel Town of Iroquois Fallsl The Boston Groupl Social Science Research / Unit Databank


l Economic Impacts of Energy Conservation in Ontario and Regionsl Leading World Markets for the Canadian Engineering Products

Industryl World Demand and Supply of Petrochemicals, 1985-2000l Feasibility Studies of Some Extensions of Thailand’s Petrochemical

Industryl Optimal Price and Output Strategies for OPEC Oill The Economic Impact of Tourism in Ontario and Regionsl The Economic Impact of Noise Reduction Measuresl The Resource Base for Industrialization in the Gulf Cooperation

Council Countriesl Economic Impact of the Toronto Convention Centrel Technical and Vocational Manpower Requirements in the Arab

Worldl The Economic Impact of Tourism in Niagara Fallsl The Development of the Economic Impact Model for the FAIM

Systeml The Economic Impact of Park Visitor Expenditures in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Toronto Island Airportl The Economic Impact of Capital Projects in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Tourism in Northern Ontariol The Economic Impact of Aviation in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Northern Aviationl The Economic Impact of London Airportl The Economic Impact of Old Fort William and Huronia Historical

Parksl TEIM: Albertal The Economic Impact of Tourism in Banffl The Economic Impact of the Community Tourism Action Plan

(CTAP) in Albertal REIM: Ontario for the Ministry of Natural Resourcesl LINK - An Environment/Economy Linkages Modell The Economic Impact of the Great Whale Project in Quebecl The Economic Impact of SkyDome in Toronto and Ontariol The Economic Impact of the St. Lawrence Parkwayl The Economic Impact of the Windsor Casinol The Economic Impact of Ontario Casinosl The Economic Impact of Alternative Energy Sourcesl The Economic Impact of the Windsor Tunnell An Economic Impact Model for Windsorl The Economic Impact of Niagara Hydro-Electric Projectsl The Economic Impact of Salmonid Sport-Fishing in Thunder Bayl The Economic Impact of Sport-Fishing in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Remote Tourism in Northern Ontariol The Economic Impact of Waterfront Development in Timminsl The Economic Impact of Waterfront Development in Red Lakel The Economic Impact of Waterfront Development in Nippigon

PROJECTS(representative list)


l The Economic Impact of the Three Sisters Resort in Albertal The Economic Impact of West Edmonton Malll The Economic Impact of Waste Management in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Harbourfront Development in Hamiltonl MACRO: For the Ontario Ministry of Tourism and Recreationl MTR12: Demand Side Impacts for the Ontario Ministry of Tourism

and Recreationl DEIM: Alberta - Demand Side Impacts for Alberta Economic

Development and Tourisml A Strategy for Infrastructural Development in Lebanon (UNIDO)l Effective Protection and Industrial Development in Lebanon (UNIDO)l World Demand for Petrochemicals (UNIDO)l World Demand for Capital Goods (UNIDO)l Industrial Development Prospects - Saudi Arabia (UNIDO)l Industrial Development Prospects - Kuwait (UNIDO)l Industrial Development Prospects - Jordan (UNIDO)l Industrial Development Prospects - Indonesia (UNIDO)l Industrial Development Prospects - Thailand (UNIDO)l Government Expenditure Efficiencies (Treasury and Economic

Ontario)l A Feasibility Study for a Serbian Community Centre in Torontol The Economic and Environmental Consequences of NAFTA on

Ontario (MOE)l The Economic Impacts of Global Warming (Canada Climate Centre)l The Economic Feasibility of Real Estate Development in Manitoulin

Island (QUNO)l The Economic Impact of Recycling on Northern Ontario (MOE)l The Regional Economic Impacts of the Frigates Programl The Economic Impact of Universities and Colleges in Ontariol GRIMOPEN: The Generalized Regional Impact Modell An Economic Impact Model for Quebecl A Master Plan for the Central District Portl Study of Purchase and Sale of Beverage Alcohol in Ontariol The Great Lake Economiesl The Economic Impact of Casino RAMAl The Economic Impact of Fort Erie Casinol The Economic Impact of the Niagara Falls Casinol The Economic Impact of Halifax and Sydney Casinosl The Economic Contribution of the Tobacco Industry in the Tobacco

Growing Region of Ontariol The Economic Impact of the BOBLO Island Casino and Resortl The Economic Impact of a Proposed Casino in Ottawal The Economic Impact of a Proposed Casino in Sault Ste. Mariel The Economic Impact of the Grand Railtour in British Columbial The Economic Impact of a 20% Reduction in Government Funding

for Ontario Universities


l A Methodology for Assessing Socio-Economic Impacts of 50% SolidWaste Reduction/Diversion

l The Economic Impact of the Barnes Exhibitionl Sustainable Indicators of The Transportation Sector in Ontariol SEIM:Ontario - A Socio-Economic Impact Modell IDISS:Ontario - Inter-Disciplinary Indicators of Sustainability Sys-

teml ACIS:Wikwemikong - Aboriginal Community Impact Systeml The Economic Consequences of a Single European Market on Third

World Countriesl The Economic and Environmental Impacts of Natural Gas Vehiclesl The Economic/Environmental Consequences of Alternative Macr-

oeconomic Policies in Ontariol RECREATE:Alberta - An Economic Impact System for the Evalu-

ation of Recreational Activityl CDIM:Kapuskasing - Community Development Impact Modell CDIM:Sault Ste. Marie - Community Development Impact Modell CDIM:Thunder Bay - Community Development Impact Modell SEIM:Lake Superior - Socio-Economic Impact Model for the Lake

Superior Watershedl The Economic Impact of Remedial Action Plans (RAP) in Ontariol The Economic Impacts of RAP Activity in Cornwalll The Economic Impacts of RAP Activity in Hamilton Harbourl The Economic Impacts of RAP Activity in Thunder Bayl The Economic Impacts of RAP Activity in Rouge River, Torontol The Economic Impacts of RAP Activity in Nippigon Ontariol The Economic Impacts of Water Conservation in the Halton and

Waterloo Regional Municipalitiesl The Conservation Impacts of Water Prices in Haltonl The Water Allocation System (WAS), Harvard University Modell A Water and Climate Database for ARIJ (IDRC)l The Economic Impact of Casino Magic, Albertal The Economic Impact of a Proposed Casino in West Edmonton Malll An Economic and Environmental Evaluation of the Swan Hill

Incinerator in Albertal The Economic Value of the Great Divide Waterfall in Edmontonl The Economic Impact of AVENOR Forestry Activities in Northern

Ontariol The Economic Impact of Horse Racing and Breeding in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Imposing an Entertainment Tax on Toronto

Theatresl The Economic Impact of Taxing Casino Wins in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Prohibiting the Sale of Tobacco by Pharma-

cies in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Alberta's Major Sport Franchisesl The Economic Impact of a Proposed Casino in Port Colbourne

Ontario


l The Economic Impact of Tourism in Leamington, Ontariol The Economic Impact of the Exodus Resort in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Simcoe Tourisml Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Waste Diversion from Torontol Estimating The Cost of Limiting CO2 Emissions in Ontariol The Economic Impact of the Forestry Sector in Ontario and Regionsl CDIM:Cochrane - Community Development Impact Modell CDIM:Iroquois Falls - Community Development Impact Modell The Economic Impact of Lansdowne Development in Ottawal The Economic Impact of the Chrysler Development in Windsorl An Economic Ecological System for Ontariol The Economic Impact of an Environment Levy on Beer Sales in

Ontariol The Economic Impact of the Niagara Falls Casinol The Economic Impact of Destination Technodome in New Yorkl Market Feasibility and Revenue Projections for Destination

Technodome in New Yorkl The Economic Impact of Destination Technodome in Torontol Market Feasibility and Revenue Projections for Destination

Technodome in Torontol The Economic Impact of Project 'T' in Torontol The Economic Impact VLT's at Race Tracks in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Charity Casinos in Ontariol The Economic Impact of Energy Efficiency in Ontariol The Economic Impact of the Removal of VLT's from Grocery Stores

and Taverns in Las Vegas City and Clarke Countyl Market Feasibility of Slot Machines at Race Tracks in Ontariol Optimal Utilization of Forestry Resources in Northern Saskatch-

ewanl The Economic Impact of a Charity Casino in the GTAl The Economic Impact of a Charity Casino in Sarnial The Economic Impact of a Charity Casino in Brantfordl The Economic Feasibility of a Charity Casino in Simcoe Countyl The Economic Feasibility of a Charity Casino in Durham Countyl The Economic Feasibility of a Charity Casino in Innisfill The Economic Feasibility of a Charity Casino in Mississaugal Product / Market Compatibility with Visitors to Destination

Technodomel The Economic Impact of Hospital Closures in Essex Countyl The Economic Impact of Hospital Closures in Kingstonl IFAM: Industrial Financial Assessment Modell The Economic Impact of the Green$aver and Better Building Part-

ners Programmesl The Economic Impact of Transportation Infrastructure in Ontariol The Economic Impact of the Unfair Tax Treatment of Horse Racing and

Breeding in Canadal The Economic of Financial Services Sector in Metro Toronto


THE ERL TEAM(key personnel)

q Dr. Atif A. Kubursi Economist and Impact Expert

q Dr. David W. Butterfield Consulting Econometrician

q Mr. Steven J. Spencer Systems Engineer

q Mr. Atam Uppal Health Economics Expert

q Mr. Krish Krishnan Health Care Consultant

q Dr. K. Deal Consulting Marketing Researcher

q Mr. J. Koppang Consulting Economist

q Ms. Fied Holubeshen Computer Systems Analyst

q Dr. George Kanan, C.A. Financial Accounting and Systems


Dr. Atif A. Kubursi President

Atif Kubursi has extensive experience in economic and industrial consulting. He teaches economicsand regional science at McMaster University; he joined McMaster in 1969 as assistant professor. Since1981, Dr. Kubursi has held the rank of full professor. Dr. Kubursi also taught economics at PurdueUniversity in Indiana, USA, at Cambridge University, UK., and lectures occasionally at Harvard.

In 1972, he formed Econometric Research Limited which he has continuously served as president.In 1982, he joined the United Nations Industrial Organization as senior development officer. Since thenhe worked as a team leader of several UNIDO missions to Indonesia, Thailand, Korea, Malaysia, SaudiArabia, Kuwait, Sudan, and Egypt. In his consulting activities he has specialized in the areas of impactanalysis and regional planning with special emphasis on tourism development. He has frequentlylectured on economic development, energy economics, impact of tourism on provincial and localeconomies and on environment-economy linkages.

KEYQUALIFICATIONSANDACCOMPLISHMENTS

q Extensive experience in economic consulting specializing in impactanalysis, tourism, industrial development and environmental eco-nomics.

q Designed computer based models for provincial and regional eco-nomic impact analysis.

q Directed a large number of projects for ERL and the United Nationsin Canada and abroad.

q Professor of Economics at McMaster University.

q Author of seven books in economics and over 120 articles andreports.

q Frequent guest lecturer to university and non-university groups.

q United Nations expert.

EDUCATION 1964-1969 Purdue UniversityPhD in Economics and StatisticsMSc in Economics and Statistics

1961-1964 American University of BeirutM.A in EconomicsB.A in Economics, Politics and Philosophy

1962-1964 Lebanese University Law Faculty.

1961 International CollegeInternational Baccalaureate


PUBLICATIONS

Articles

“Sectoral Characteristics of the Ontario Structure of Production”,Ontario Economic Review, Special Issue, February, 1972. (with R.Frank)

“Programming Models of Government Expenditures”, Public Finance,Volume XXVIII, No. 1, 1973, pp. 84-94. (with F. Jones).

“Evaluating the Differential Impact of Government ExpendituresClassified by Department”, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,Volume 8, 1974, pp. 101-108.

“Differential Impact of Government Expenditure Programs”, PublicFinance Quarterly, Volume 3, No. 2, (April, 1975), pp. 131-151 (withR. Frank).

“Sub-Provincial Regional Income Multipliers in the Ontario Economy:An Input-Output Approach”, Canadian Journal of Economics, VolumeVIII, No. 1, (February, 1975), pp. 67-92 (with J.R. Williams and P.J.George).

“Input-Output Tables for Ontario”, in (John Bossons ed.), Input-Output Analyses of Fiscal Policy in Ontario, Ontario EconomicCouncil, 1978, pp. 31-36.

“Ontario Government Expenditures by Industry”, in (John Bossonsed.), Input-Output Analyses of Fiscal Policy in Ontario, OntarioEconomic Council, 1978, pp. 55-66.

“Ontario Regional Wages and Value Added by Industry”, in (JohnBossons ed.), Input-Output Analyses of Fiscal Policy in Ontario,Ontario Economic Council, 1978, pp. 67-72.

“Differential Income and Employment Multipliers of OntarioGovernment Expenditures”, in (John Bossons ed.), Input-OutputAnalyses of Fiscal Policy in Ontario, Ontario Economic Council, 1978,pp. 73-82.

“Differential Sub-Regional Impact of Ontario ProvincialGovernment Expenditures”, in (John Bossons ed.), Input-OutputAnalyses of Fiscal Policy in Ontario, Ontario Economic Council, 1978,pp. 123-156.

“How Efficient Are Ontario Government Expenditures”, in (JohnBossons ed.), Input-Output Analyses of Fiscal Policy in Ontario,Ontario Economic Council, 1978, pp. 157-182.


“Errors in Regional Non-Survey Input-output Models: Analytical andSimulation Results”, Journal of Regional Science, (August, 1981) pp.321-339 (with Se Hark Park and M. Mohtadi).

“The Energy Constraint and Development: Consistency and OptimalityOvertime”, Energy Economics, Vol. 5, No. 1, (January, l983) pp. 9-15(with Hark Park).

“Regional Equity and Efficiency: Some Experiments For Canada”,Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 23, No. 3, (September, 1983), pp.397-411 (with R. Aziz and D. Butterfield).

“Inter-regional and Inter-sectoral Fiscal Policy”, in Modelling andSimulation, Vol. 15, Part 1, 1984, pp. 207-213 (with D.W.Butterfield).

“Factor Mobility and Economic Efficiency When Demand ConstraintsAre Binding”, Simulation and Modelling, Vol. 16, Part 1, pp. 395-399(with D. Butterfield).

“The Economic Impact of University Expenditures”, COU, 1991

“An Economic Evaluation of the Great Whale Project”, The Goodmansgroup, 1992.

“Economy-Environment Linkages: Models of Sustainable Develop-ment” Proceedings of the Technology Transfer Conference, Ministryof the Environment, 1991. (Several authors).

“Absolute Vs. Relative Scarcity of Water: What is the True Price ofWater?” , Harvard University Water Project, 1993.

“The Demand for Gasoline: A Two Stage Approach” InternationalJournal of Forecasting, 9 (1993) pp. 457-465. (with M. Elkhafif).

“The Economic Impact of Natural Resources Management andExtraction” Analytical Approaches to Resource Management,Proceedings of the First Annual Symposium, 1993, Queens Printerfor Ontario, pp. 96-116 (with S.J. Spencer).

“The Economic Impact of Recycling in Ontario and Regions”Canadian Journal of Regional Science, 1994 with D.W. Butterfield.

Cooperation and Development in the Energy Sector (London: CroomHelm, 1985) edited with T. Naylor.

The Economic Impact of Tourism in Ontario and Regions 1976,Ministry of Industry and Tourism. December, 1978.


The Economic Impact of Provincial Park Expenditures in Ontario,1979. February, 1981 (with D. Butterfield).

The Economic Impact of Wildlife Activity in Ontario, 1980, March,1982 (with D. Butterfield).

The Economic Impact of Tourism Ontario Associations’ Expendi-tures,1986.

The Economic Impact of Tourism in Ontario and Regions,1985.March1988.

The Economic Impact of Provincial Park Expenditures,1985.April1988.The Economic Impact of Tourism in Niagara Falls, 1987. April 1988.(with EPG).

The Economic Significance of Tourism in Northern Ontario.1985,April 1988.

The Economic Impact of Aviation in Ontario, 1986. (with AcresInternational).

The Economic Significance of Tourism Expenditures in NorthernOntario: A Perspective, 1987.

The Economic Impact of Capital Projects in the Transportation Sectorin Ontario, 1987. (With a number of other authors).

The Economic Impact of The Toronto Island Airport on Metro, South-ern Ontario and the Province, 1988. (with Acres International).

FAIM-Financial Assessment and Impact Model of the Tourism Sectorin Ontario-COTDA. August, 1988. (With EPG)

TEIM: Alberta, December 1991. A Computer Simulation Model forAlberta.

TRIM: Ontario, March 1990. A Computer Impact Model of CapitalProjects.

The Economic Impact of Remote Tourism: Algoma, MTR, 1991.

The Economic Impact of Salmonid Fishing in Thunder Bay, MTR,1991.

Books, Reports andMonographs


Site Specific Economic Impact Models: Old Fort William, St. MarieAmong the Hurons, Naval and Military Establishments, 1991.

The Economic Impact of Waterfront Development in Timmins, 1991(with Moore/George Associates).

Master Port Plan for the Central Region, Transport Canada, 1992 (withTransmode).

The Economy - Environment Linkages: Sustainable Development inOntario, 1992, Ministry of Environment. (with VHB).

The Economics of Reducing, Reusing, Recycling and Recovery inOntario, 1992, Ministry of Environment. (with VHB).

MACRO: A Model of Aggregate Tourism Impacts, MTR, 1991.

The Economic Impact of Developing the Nipigon River in NorthernOntario, The City of Red Rock, 1992.(with Moore/George Associates).

Expert Witness Statement submitted to the Timber Management Envi-ronment Class 2A Hearings, on behalf of Northern Ontario TourismOutfitters Association, February 1992.

The Economic Impacts of Global Warming in Ontario, The ClimateCentre of Canada, 1992. (with VHB).

The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Emission Controls, Ontario Min-istry of the Environment, 1992. (with VHB).

Impact of a Tax on Casino Winnings. With KMPG, 1995.

SEIM: Socio-Economic Impacts of the Natural Resource Sector. Min-istry of Natural Resources, 1995.

The Economic Feasibility of a Gaming Complex in Bolbol Island.1995.

The Economic Impact of RAMA Casino. With Coopers & Lybrand.1995

The Economic Impact and Feasibility of Niagara Falls Casino. WithCoopers & Lybrand, 1995.

The Economic Feasibility and Impact of a Casino in Sault St. Marie.With KPMG, 1995.


The Economic Impact and Feasibility of a Casino in Fort Erie - Ontario.With Coopers & Lybrand, 1995.

The Economic Impact and Feasibility of a Second Casino in Ottawa.With Deloitte and Touche, 1995.

Casino Market Feasibility and Economic Impact Study in the City ofColborne. With Ernst & Young, 1996.

Water Conservation Versus Water Supply Augmentation. With DavidButterfield. Department of the Environment, CCIW, 1996.

Price Responsiveness of the Demand for Water. With David Butterfield.Department of the Environment, CCIW, 1996.

Forest Sector Socioeconomic Impact Model for Northern OntarioCommunities. With S. Spencer and A. Ghebremichael. NorthernForestry Program. NODA, 1996.

The Economics of Environmental Remediation in Ontario and Re-gions. With Peter Stokoe. Department of the Environment CCIW,1996.

The Economy Transportation Linkages in Ontario. Ministry ofTranspotation, 1996.


Dr. David W. Butterfield Vice President

David Butterfield uniquely combines a high level engineering education at California Institute ofTechnology and a PhD. in economics from University of California at Berkeley. He is a renownedeconometrician and theorist with extensive contributions to theoretical and applied economics. Heteaches economics at McMaster University. He first joined McMaster in 1971 and has since served it asan associate professor of economics. He is widely published with over 50 publications to his credit.

Dr. Butterfield has developed a keen interest in linking economic and environmental accounts. Hiscontributions span a wide range of subjects that include mathematical modelling, forecasting, growththeory, macroeconomics, input output economics, development economics and regional science.

WORK EXPERIENCE q Associate Professor of Economics, McMaster University, July 1,1982 to present.

q Assistant Professor, July 1, 1971 to June 30, 1982.

q Vice President Econometric Research Limited.

q Lecturer (in Economics), California State College-Hayward, Hay-ward, California, March 1971-June 1971.

q Station Manager, Page Communications, April 1965-January 1966.

q Member of Technical Staff, TRW Systems (formerly Space Technol-ogy Laboratories) July 1961-April 1965.

q Project leader UNITAD Model, United Nations Industrial Develop-ment Organization, 1982

q Member of project team evaluating the demand for capital goods inseveral developing countires, UNIDO, 1984

q Project leader, UNIDO, Forecasting the world demand for petro-chemicals, 1985-1987

EDUCATION B.S. (Physics), California Institute of Technology, 1960.M.S. (Electrical Engineering), California Institute of Technology,1961.A.B. (Social Science), University of California, Berkeley, 1967.M.A. (Economics), University of California, Berkeley, 1969.Ph.D.(Economics), University of California, Berkeley, 1975.


Steven J. Spencer, P. Eng. Systems Engineer

Steven has a unique background in electrical and computing engineering and computer systemsanalysis. He joined ERL in 1989 and has since been responsible for the implementation of most of itsspecialized impact systems.

EDUCATION 1981 - 1985 McMaster UniversityB. Eng. in Electrical and Computer Engineering

WORK EXPERIENCE 1989 - Computer Engineer, Software Systems, ERLProjects:

TRIM Ontario Ministry of TransportationIMPACT Ontario Ministry of TourismMACRO Ontario Ministry of TourismTEIM Alberta Economic Development and

TourismSEIM Ontario Ministry of Natural ResourcesDEIM Alberta Economic Development and

TourismLINK Ontario Ministry of Environment and

EnergyCDIM Department of Natural Resources, Canada

1992 Software Systems Engineer, Terran Innovations Ltd.Projects:

Online Quotation Database for WestinghouseCustomer Warranty Database for Evenflo Canada

1985 - 1991, Research Engineer, McMaster University1993 - Department of Electrical and Computer

Engineering

AREAS OF DIRECTEXPERIENCE ANDINTEREST

Software:l Database Management Systemsl Computer Graphicsl Interactive User Interfacesl Computer Networksl Custom CAD Software

Hardware:l Intel 80x86 Related Hardwarel Digital Electronicsl Microcomputer Circuitryl Analog Circuitry

Computer Systems:l DEC VAX running VMSl HP 9000 running HP-UXl IBM 80x86/Pentium (DOS)l HP Apollo Unix Workstationsl IBM AIX Workstations

Programming Languages:l C/C++, Pascall FORTRAN, BASICl Java, Javascriptl Various application package script languages


Atam Uppal Vice President

Atam has an in-depth knowledge and experience in the areas of health economics and the management anddevelopment of large projects. He served as one of the founding executives of the Ontario Casino Corporationand played a key role in the development of Ontario's casino industry. He has a solid record of effectivelyimplementing various initiatives by creating alliances with host communities, law enforcement agencies andstakeholders. He is frequently consulted by other provinces and jurisdictions in the design, start-up andoperational issues of gaming projects.

1993 Executive Development Program in Casino Management,University of Nevada, USA

1974 M.A. (Health Economics), University of Guelph, Ontario

1973 Honours B.A. (Economics), Bishop's University, Quebec

1992 -98 Ontario Casino Corporation, Director of OperationsToronto, Ontario

1972-92 Ministry of Finance, Ontario GovernmentSenior Economist

STRENGTHS

WORK EXPERIENCE

EDUCATION

l Implementing and directing large tourism and health care projects,l Gaming policy development and implementation,l Gaming market analysis and strategic planning,l Developing gaming business plans,l Managing change in the gaming industry,l Negotiations with suppliers of gaming equipment,l Determining staff requirements in gaming venues,l Host community relations,l Team leadership


Moufida A. Holubeshen Computer Systems Analyst

Moufida (Fied) is an accomplished programmer with broad experience in economics. She was firstto implement the early impact systems for TRIM, Natural Resources Parks Model, and FAIM. The factthat she has a double major in economics and computer science has made her an exceptional member ofERL team.

EDUCATION B.A. Honours Economics and Computer ScienceMcMaster University

q Computer languages studied include Fortran, Pascal, COBOL, 6502 Assembler and GPSS.q Topics studied include database design, graphics, econometric statistics, input-output analysis and linear programming.

College Protestant Français Grade thirteen levelBeirut, Lebanon

Special skills acquired: q Fluency in both French and Arabic.

WORK EXPERIENCE 1986 - Computer Systems Analyst, Econometric Research Limited

Projects:NIAGARA - Ontario Ministry of TourismFAIM/IMPACT - Ontario Ministry of TourismTRIM - Ontario Ministry of TransportationMTR12 - Ontario Ministry of TourismMNR - Ontario Ministry of Natural ResourcesGRIM - A Generalized Regional Impact Model

Hardware:l Assorted PC/286/386/486 type personal computers (MSDOS)l VAX 11/780 (VMS).

Software:

AREAS OF DIRECTEXPERIENCE ANDINTEREST

l Fortranl Pascall Dbase IVl Quattro Pro

l Lotus 123l WordPerfectl Harvard Graphicsl Procomm.


Dr. Joseph H.Dableh, P.Eng. Consulting Engineer

Dr. Dableh is a distinguished engineer with a number of patents to his credit. He has extensiveexperience in power engineering, manufacturing processes, research methodologies and mathematicalprogramming of dynamic systems.

Besides many patents and copy rights, Joe has published a large collection of articles and reserachreports. At ERL he has been instrumental in many areas including research design and mathematicalsystems.

EDUCATION 1982 - 1986 Ph. D., McMaster University(part-time) Electrical and Computer Engineering

1979 M. Sc. E., University of New BrunswickElectrical EngineeringFredericton, N.B.

1976 B. Sc. E., University of New BrunswickElectrical Engineering

WORK EXPERIENCE Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,McMaster University, 1988 - Present

Engineer, Research Division of Ontario Hydro, 1978 -1987Projects: Research and development in the area of power system

operation and control.

Traffic Engineer, Department of Transportation, Provincial Govern-ment of New Brunswick, 1976 - 1978 (part-time)


James A. Koppang Consulting Economist

James is particularly versed in the search, identification, collection and organization of economicdata. Econometric Research Limited has made extensive use of james specialized knowledge andexperience. Although he is fully employed with CMHC, he has worked repeatedly with ERL on manyprojects, particularly when difficult data is hard to find and reliability is a special requirement.

1988 M.A. (Economics), McMaster University

1987 Honours B.A. (Economics), McMaster University

1971 B.A. (History), McMaster University

EDUCATION

WORK EXPERIENCE 1990 - CMHC, EconomistHamilton, Ontario

1988-89 Research AssistantProgram for Quantitative Studies in Economics andPopulationMcMaster University

1987-88 Teaching AssistantDepartment of EconomicsMcMaster University

1973-87 ConstableMcMaster Security Services


George Roelofsen Hotel Expert

George has successfully planned, opened, repositioned and operated several World Class convention,corporate, hotel/resort and casino/resort operations, from 100 to 1,600 rooms, in Europe, Canada and theUnited States, at airport, suburban, resort and major downtown locations. His executive experience includesthe opening and operation of a land based Casino as well as a Riverboat Casino and the planning anddevelopment of a $600 million Hotel/Casino resort complex. He has a strong achievement record in Propertyturnarounds, Development & Project Management, Sales & Marketing, Food & Beverage and the selectionand motivational process of identifying and challenging the best qualified professionals for the key positions andbuilding them into an efficient team.

1996 Executive Development Program, Hilton Gaming Corporation,Las Vegas, Nevada

1985 Marketing and Purchasing courses, Cornell University,Hotel Faculty, Ithaca, New York

1970 Hotel School Loetscher, Lucerne, Switzerland Identical courses to the Hotel School of Lausanne.

1997- A2Z Gaming & Hospitality Inc., Vice PresidentHospitality, Toronto, Ontario

1994-1997 Windsor Casino Ltd., Executive Director,Resort Operations, Windsor Ontario/Detroit Michigan

1989-1994 Hospitality Services / Friden Hotel CompanyManaging Director/Corporate Director of Operations,Santa Barbara, CA

1987-1989 Sheraton Parkway Hotel, Suites & Conference CentreVice President & General Manager, Toronto, Ontario

1984-1987 U.S. Hotel Properties, Senior Staff Manager, Century City, Beverly Hills (Los Angeles), California

1979-1984 Loews Anatole Hotel, Director of Operations, Dallas, Texas

1971-1979 King Edward Hotel Executive Assistant Manager,Toronto, Ontario

1967 - 1971 Academisch Genootschap, Assistant Manager, Holland.

WORK EXPERIENCE

EDUCATION


Dr. James Chacko Associate Researcher

James Chack combines an economics education with a thorough understanding of social processes andinstitutions. He is a renowned researcher in the areas of social work and social impacts. Dr. Chacko has manageda number of large projects in the areas of health care, tourism research, social impacts of gaming and healtheconomics.

Dr. Chacko has published widely and is well known in academic circles and in the consulting community.Hehas a large list of publications including books, articles in academic journals and columns in several respected

newspapers.

1971 Ph.D, University of Toronto

1961 M.S.S. Université Laval

1960 B.S.S. Université Laval

1958 B.A.(Economics) Madras University

1970-1973, Assistant Professor, Laurentian University, School ofSocial Work

1973-1974, Associate Professor (Tenured), Laurentian University,School of Social Work

1974-1980, Associate Professor and Founding Chairman, Departmentof Social Work, Lakehead University (Tenured)

1981-1985, Professor (Tenured) and Director, School of Social Work,University of Windsor

1993-, Director, School of Social Work, University of Windsor

STRENGTHS

WORK EXPERIENCE

EDUCATION

l Implementing and directing large tourism and health care projects,l Policy development and implementation,l Strategic planning,l Developing creative solutions,l Managing change,l Negotiations with suppliersl Motivating staff,l Community relationsl Team leadership


Krish Krishnan Health Care Consultant

Krish Krishnan is an experienced consultant with extensive expertise in the areas of health care and propertyand corporate taxation. He has worked for many public and private clients including the Ministry of Finance ofthe Ontario Government, Imperial Oil, ASEA Brown Boveri, KPMG and the Ontario Casino Corporation.Hebrings a wealth of knowledge on the financing of health care in both the government and non-profit sectors.

Bachelor of Arts - Economics and Public FinanceBachelor of LawsPostgraduate Diploma - Political Science and Public AdministrationCertificate in Property Assessment and Valuation

2000- Director of Sherbourne Health Centre1996 - Corporate and Property Assessment and Taxation

Consultant, Casino Rama, Interim and PermanentCasino Windsor and Casino Niagara

1996 - Corporate Taxation Consultant for KPMG1997 - Corporate Taxation Appeal Consultant for ASEA Brown

Boveri Inc., Canada1998 Cost and Corporate Consultant for Indian Navy on

Hydrography Projectwith Quester Tangent Corporation, B.C., Canada.

1996 - Franchise and Taxation Consultant to Imperial OilMr. LUBE Franchises

1996-97 Taxation Consultant to Business and PolicyConsultants Inc., Ottawa

1990-96 Manager, Legislation and Program Advisory Services,Ontario Ministry of Finance

1988-90 Senior Project Leader, Revenue Operations andResearch, Ontario Ministry of Finance

1982-88 Manager, Retail Sales Tax Branch,Ontario Ministry of Revenue

1978-82 Senior Tax Specialist, Retail Sales Tax Branch,Ontario Ministry of Finance

1976-78 Senior Finance Officer, Project Evaluation Branch,Assessment and Taxation, Ontario Ministry ofHousing and Municipal Affairs

1973-76 Policy Officer, Property Assessment Division,Ontario Ministry of Finance

1971-73 Property Assessor, Property Assessment Division,Ontario Ministry of Finance

WORK EXPERIENCE

EDUCATION


Econometric Research Limited Presents

The Tourism Economic Impact Model (TEIM) Systems

While tourism has always been recognized as a major sector in the economy, its economic impacthas received only partial attention. The evaluation of the financial and economic consequences of tourismprojects has received even less attention. There is practically nothing on the combined financial andeconomic impact of tourism projects.

Econometric Research Limited has developed a specialized system that integrates financial andeconomic impacts in ten tourism sectors differentiated by size and geographical location. Starting withpurely financial data, our model is capable of using this data to generate the economic impact of a tourismproject during the temporary construction phase and over the lifetime of the project. The latter impactsare associated with stabilized revenues.

The impact measurement system is based on a novel technology that integrates demand side andsupply side analyses and synthesizes together input-output analysis and location theory. The outcomeis a state-of-the-art methodology. It is more sophisticated and precise than any of the present methodsbeing used in economic impact analysis. To date similar systems to this were developed and customizedby ERL and are currently used by Tourism Canada, Ontario Ministry of Tourism, Recreation, andCulture, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Ontario Ministry of Transportation, Ontario Ministryof the Environment and Alberta Economic Development and Tourism.

Basically, the system consists of a computerized model that depicts the financial feasibility oftourism projects against a set of norms collected on regional and provincial basis. The financial modelpresents a number of printed reports that outline the cost and revenue structures of different projectsdistinguished by size, location, and type of business. The impact model utilizes the financial profilesgenerated by the financial system to calculate impact at the provincial and local levels. Impact tablesinclude a standard screen which displays income, sales, labour income, and employment associated withthe construction phase as well with the stabilized revenue expected. A detailed tax impact table is alsoincluded which presents tax impacts in terms of several taxes and the level of government collectingthem. The system also presents an energy impact screen as well as a printed summary report withanalytical components and the inter-regional spread of impacts in terms of the key impact indicators.

Although the system is designed to handle primarily tourism projects it is flexible enough to permitthe evaluation of industrial and large hydro type projects. The system is also capable of generatingprovince-wide impacts as well as local impacts at the CMA or county levels. Actually, any geographicalconfiguration is possible within a GIS environment.

While TEIM is project driven, two additional systems are now operational that allow the evaluationof macro programs and the evaluation of tourism expenditures from the demand side. MACRO isspecifically designed to evaluate policy programs. DEIM focuses on expenditures by tourists classifiedby origin. All of these systems operate within the same platform of TEIM.


MACRO/FAIM: Sectoral / Regional Systems

Government assistance rarely covers the full costs of projects undertaken by the private sector. Ina sense government assistance is undertaken with the express objective of spurring private sectorinvestment and not substituting for it. As such government assistance complements the investmentactivity of the private sector and results into a larger flow of investment in the economy.

Invariably government assistance falls short of the demand for it and must be rationally allocatedover many competing ends. In such situations there is a strong need to gauge the social and macroeco-nomic dimensions of government assistance not only at the project level but also at the sectoral, regionaland economy wide levels.

Impact analysis is not conducted in a vacuum. The sectoral and spatial dimensions are necessaryas impacts are differential across sectors and regions. In FAIM the accent is on project analysis and assuch it is not designed to handle investment programs at the sectoral level. The impact calculations inFAIM are at the province wide level. On the other hand, MACRO is designed to handle large investmentprojects at the sectoral and the program level where the investment program may entail several sectorsat the same time. Besides MACRO is capable of generating regional (local) impacts.

The Ontario Ministry of Tourism and Recreation has set a number of programs to assist the privatesector in the tourism industry. This assistance has tended over the past to maintain a stable relationshipto private investment, but this stability and the magnitude of leverage have also tended to vary amongsectors. We have calculated the leverage coefficients for all the sectors within the tourism industry overthe past fifteen years and used these coefficients to inflate government assistance to total investment bysector.

Once total investment is determined it is necessary to allocate it over the various components thatcomprise it. These components again differ by sector and region. To keep FAIM and MACRO consistent,we opted to use the FAIM norms to allocate the investment. The allocation of total investment bycomponent is then linked directly to the input output system that determines impact. The historicaldistribution of government assistance by sector and region may not be a good predictor of the futuredistribution. This being the case, the model allows the user to override the historical values. In this wayMacro is also a sectoral system.

Sustainable revenues are those that can sustain a profitable concern over the long term. They emergefrom maintaining a single rate of return on investment in the sector. Liquidity and risk premiums allowvariations in these returns, but competition ensures that only one basic rate do exist. Higher returns thatare not justified by risk or liquidity differentials will be ironed out by entry and exist of firms into andout of the sector.

By defining a single rate of return on investment and allowing operating profit margins per unit ofrevenue to vary sectorially and regionally we were able to link investment and revenue while maintainingsectoral risk and liquidity differentials by sector and region. Once revenues were calculated they weredistributed over categories of cost/expenditure using FAIM norms. Some of the FAIM norms did not sumto total revenue. We forced them to equality by adjusting profit margins.


REIM: A Socio-Economic Impact Model

It is hardly the case that activities or programs are sustained for purely their primary functions. Largeprojects or programs involve the use of substantial resources and have therefore large economic impactsthat are independent of the economic worth of their intended functions. A large dam that helps produceelectricity is often a major economic project in the region in which it is located and its construction andoperation support the economic base of the region just as much as it sustains the overall economy thatdepends on its energy.

The regional economic impact model (REIM) that Econometric Research Limited (ERL) com-pleted for Forest Values of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources is a custom-designed applicationof the general ERL system. But it is also much more than that.

REIM: Ontario is a truly local impact system. While many systems exist at the national or provinciallevels, REIM is unique in its ability to deal with local contractions within regions (e.g., northern Ontario)to the level of a district in Thunder Bay Ontario.

Equally novel and relevant is the supply/demand interface that REIM allows. Consumer typeactivities are as easily handled as extractive industrial activities within the same unique platform.

A full price module is a core utility of the system that allows the expression of all values in currentyear prices but reduces all physical relationships to constant dollar measures.

All the component parts of the system are menu driven which fact allows users with no or limitedcomputer literacy to utilize the system to its full capacity.

As easy as the system is to use, it is a complicated mathematical model and a state-of-the-artprogramming product. The model involved over five thousand equations and many more variables. Itis basically a generalization of Leontief/Stopler balanced growth model.

A unique feature of REIM is the integration of social indicators such as victims of violence, alcoholabuse and family disintegration within the same platform of economic impacts. In this way, REIM is atrue socio-economic system.

Equally important is the link that REIM makes to the environment. Social and Economic indicatorsare coupled with environmental indicators. The latter include pollution, water use, waste generation andenergy consumption.

REIM provides a three dimensional profile of impacts. It is the only system we know of thatapproximates a sustainable development framework.


SEIM: A Socio-Economic Impact Model

It is hardly the case that activities or programs are sustained for purely their primary functions. Largeprojects or programs involve the use of substantial resources and have therefore large economic impactsthat are independent of the economic worth of their intended functions. A large dam that helps produceelectricity is often a major economic project in the region in which it is located and its construction andoperation support the economic base of the region just as much as it sustains the overall economy thatdepends on its energy.

The regional economic impact model (SEIM) that Econometric Research Limited (ERL) com-pleted for Forest Values of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources is a custom-designed applicationof the general ERL impact system. But it is also much more than that.

SEIM: Ontario is a truly local impact system. While many systems exist at the national or provinciallevels, SEIM is unique in its ability to deal with local contractions within regions (e.g., northern Ontario)to the level of a district in Thunder Bay Ontario.

Equally novel and relevant is the supply/demand interface that SEIM allows. Consumer typeactivities (recreation) are as easily handled as extractive industrial activities (logging, pulp and paper,etc.) within the same unique platform.

A full price module is a core utility of the system that allows the expression of all values in currentyear prices but reduces all physical relationships to constant dollar measures.

All the component parts of the system are menu driven which allows users with no or limitedcomputer literacy to utilize the system to its full capacity.

As easy as the system is to use, it is a complicated mathematical model and a state-of-the-artprogramming product. The model involved over ten thousand equations and many more variables. It isbasically a generalization of Leontief/Stopler balanced growth model.

A unique feature of SEIM is the integration of social indicators such as victims of violence, alcoholabuse and family disintegration within the same platform of economic and environmental impacts.

Equally important is the link that SEIM makes to the environment. Social and economic indicatorsare coupled with environmental indicators. The latter include pollution, water use, waste generation,energy consumption and contaminants.

SEIM provides a three dimensional profile of impacts. It is the only system we know of thatapproximates a sustainable development framework.

There are a number of programming features that make SEIM a user-friendly and a powerful toolin the hands of economic and social analysts. All indicators are defined in tabular form and can beautomatically displayed graphically. The system has a unique feature of printing results with analysis.


LINK: An Economy/Environment Impact System

Standard economics textbooks portray the economy as a closed circuit model with householdssupplying the factors of production (land, labour, capital and entrepreneurship) to firms that produce theoutput and distribute income to households. The monetary value of production is equal to the sum offactor payments as profits are treated as a residual item that balances the two accounts--production andincome. Since households spend all of their income in this model total production is equal to totalexpenditures (consumption) and gross domestic product is a prism with three equal sides--production,expenditures and income.

This simple economy ignores the fundamental relationships that connect the economy to theenvironment. The links are multidimensional. First, the natural environment supplies resources (renew-able and non-renewable) to the production process. Second, the natural environment provides the spacewithin which economic activity is carried. Third, the natural environment assimilates the wastedischarged by households and firms in the processes of production and consumption.

The main study of which the Link Model is a by-product is rooted in the framework of sustainabledevelopment. The latter is predicated on a comprehensive linkage between the economy and theenvironment and on maintaining balance between the human economy and natural environment.

The Link Model is conceived within the input output framework but is extended to allow fordifferent choices of final demand, technological processes and regional locations. The core of the systemis the provincial input output tables for 1984 as produced by Statistics Canada. The model is closed byincorporating consumption and import demand equations that relate these variables to disposable incomein the case of consumption and total income in the case of imports.

The final demand categories that are deemed to be exogenously determined are scaled to the baseyear of 1990 using actual Ontario Gross Provincial Aggregates from Statistics Canada, OntarioEconomic Accounts. The commodity composition of investment, government expenditure and exportswere left as they were in 1984. All prices in the system were expressed in terms of 1990 prices. Growthrates by category can be stipulated independently. Once these rates are determined expenditures may bescaled upward or downward and summed to result in the total exogenous final demand that drives theeconomy.

Since different growth rates can be stipulated to scale the different components of exogenous finaldemand categories, it is possible to investigate the economic impact of level and compositional changesin the economy. But since environmental impacts are related by fixed coefficients to the various levelsof output and employment, economic and environmental impacts are determined simultaneously at leastat the provincial level. When regional impacts are determined then regional differences are allowed toinfluence the results, albeit in a restricted way. Link is not a regional model. What it does is it allocatesoutput to the various regions in proportion to their historical supply shares. Only the technologicalchanges and the environmental coefficients are region specific. Link can be made more responsive toregional economic conditions. Econometric Research Limited has already accomplished that in anumber of Ontario applications. The most sophisticated regional application is in the REIM modelcurrently used by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. In REIM local impacts are derived usinga combination of input output techniques and location theory. Besides local consumption patterns are


allowed to influence the results. It is also a simple matter to change the geographical resolution fromcounties as is currently the case to watersheds. This can not be done except within a GIS framework. Wehave been partially successful in geocoding the industrial data. When all the industrial data are geocodedit will be a simple matter to move between counties and watersheds or any spatial arrangement of the data.

At present the results are allocated to six basic regions--Northeastern Ontario, NorthwesternOntario, Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario, GTA, and Southwestern Ontario and within each region to theindividual constituent counties. Both the economic impacts and the environmental impacts are generatedat the county level.

Economic impact of macroeconomic trends are identified in terms of a number of indicators. Thelist includes: sales (shipment), value added (GPI), taxes by type of tax and the level of governmentcollecting the tax, employment in total and by 25 major industrial groups. The definition of the impactindicators are provided in the Glossary of Terms at the end of this section.

Environmental impacts are presented in terms of a number of indicators which include emissions(SOX, NOX, and VOC); water from the municipal water system as intake, discharge and net use; energyby five types of fuels in physical and energy units (crude oil, hydro, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and liquidpetroleum and solid waste by 19 types. It is our intention to expand the system to deal with the use ofmineral resources and forestry products. Both the industrial and the regional patterns of environmentalimpacts are presented. The user can specify either one or both of these patterns.

Impacts are also sensitive to the technological choices of society. While input output analysis onfixed technical coefficients and constant returns to scale, an attempt is made to allow the user to choosebetween different technologies. The choice is limited to recycling. The objective is to demonstrate theability of the system to handle technological choices. Equally important is the fact that all theenvironmental coefficients can be over written. The database collected by VHB is utilized as defaultvalues. Our knowledge is likely to improve with time and as more studies are made and expanded. Toallow for a continuous update of our knowledge, all the coefficients relating economic data on output andemployment (the two indicators are used interchangeably to underscore the fact that they are related toone another by fixed coefficients) to environmental activities are subject to change and can be changedon the screen. This flexibility is very important as changes in policy are likely to increase the efficiencyof the environmental processes. Efficiency here is measured by lower emissions per unit of output.Investments in machinery to lower emissions can result in lower emissions per unit of output of theimpacted industry.

statement of qualifications - … · lworld demand and supply of petrochemicals, ... lthe economic...

Documents