statewide riverine flood vulnerability assessment · according to iuh theory, the runoff of a basin...
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Statewide Riverine Flood Vulnerability Assessment
Emmanouil Anagnostou and Xinyi ShenCivil and Environmental Engineering, UCONN
May 11, 2018 CIRCA Forum
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TopicsFlood Frequency Analysis (FFA)
Flood Vulnerability Analysis
Flood Risk of Road Crossings
Regional Flood Frequency (RFFA)
Flood Inundation Early Warning System
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CREST‐SVASA new
numerical modelling framework
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Atmospheric Reanalysis
• NLDAS‐2: North American Land Data Assimilation System (1979‐present, 1h/12km)
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Future Weather Projection
• ClimEX project‐150 years reanalysis
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Date
1990
/7/2
1991
/1/1
1991
/7/3
1992
/1/2
1992
/7/3
1993
/1/2
1993
/7/4
1994
/1/3
1994
/7/5
1995
/1/4
1995
/7/6
1996
/1/5
1996
/7/6
1997
/1/5
1997
/7/7
1998
/1/6
1998
/7/8
1999
/1/7
1999
/7/9
2000
/1/8
2000
/7/9
2001
/1/8
2001
/7/10
2002
/1/9
2002
/7/11
2003
/1/10
2003
/7/12
2004
/1/11
2004
/7/12
2005
/1/11
2005
/7/13
2006
/1/12
2006
/7/14
2007
/1/13
2007
/7/15
2008
/1/14
2008
/7/15
2009
/1/14
2009
/7/16
2010
/1/15
2010
/7/17
2011
/1/16
2011
/7/18
2012
/1/17
2012
/7/18
R_Obs RNSCE=0.58(1990‐2012)NSCE=0.72(2002‐2012)
Thompsonville, Connecticut River, MA (9660 mi2)
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Stevenson, CT, Housatonic River (1544 mi2)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Date
3/13/2002
5/24/2002
8/4/2002
10/15/2002
12/26/2002
3/8/2003
5/19/2003
7/30/2003
10/10/2003
12/21/2003
3/2/2004
5/13/2004
7/24/2004
10/4/2004
12/15/2004
2/25/2005
5/8/2005
7/19/2005
9/29/2005
12/10/2005
2/20/2006
5/3/2006
7/14/2006
9/24/2006
12/5/2006
2/15/2007
4/28/2007
7/9/2007
9/19/2007
11/30/2007
2/10/2008
4/22/2008
7/3/2008
9/13/2008
11/24/2008
2/4/2009
4/17/2009
6/28/2009
9/8/2009
11/19/2009
1/30/2010
4/12/2010
6/23/2010
9/3/2010
11/14/2010
1/25/2011
4/7/2011
6/18/2011
8/29/2011
11/9/2011
R R_ObsNSCE=0.62CC=0.81Bias=‐6.5%
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Salmon Kill, CT, Housatonic River (29 mi2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Date
10/4/1990
2/6/1991
6/11/1991
10/14/1991
2/16/1992
6/20/1992
10/23/1992
2/25/1993
6/30/1993
11/2/1993
3/7/1994
7/10/1994
11/12/1994
3/17/1995
7/20/1995
11/22/1995
3/26/1996
7/29/1996
12/1/1996
4/5/1997
8/8/1997
12/11/1997
4/15/1998
8/18/1998
12/21/1998
4/25/1999
8/28/1999
12/31/1999
5/4/2000
9/6/2000
1/9/2001
5/14/2001
9/16/2001
1/19/2002
5/24/2002
9/26/2002
1/29/2003
6/3/2003
10/6/2003
2/8/2004
6/12/2004
10/15/2004
2/17/2005
6/22/2005
10/25/2005
2/27/2006
7/2/2006
11/4/2006
3/9/2007
R_Obs R
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Flood Frequency Maps (2‐200‐yr) of CT
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FFA – error analysis
0119700001203805
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Basin Area (km2)
122 USGS stream Gauges
Error=|sim‐obs|/obs
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Flood Vulnerability Analysis
• Study Area– Naugatuck River – Thomaston Dam in the middle of the River
– Critical Infrastructure at Freight St., Waterbury, CT
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Thomaston Dam inflow, Naugatuck River, CT45 events , 9/36‐‐calibration/validation (9 years record)
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Date
2006/01/15:18
2006/05/13:04
2006/06/30:17
2006/07/09:13
2006/07/18:09
2006/07/27:05
2006/08/05:01
2006/11/18:16
2007/04/14:06
2008/02/18:15
2008/03/11:23
2008/12/27:00
2009/06/18:06
2010/01/26:12
2010/12/07:05
2010/12/16:01
2010/12/24:21
2011/01/02:17
2011/03/06:05
2011/04/18:21
2011/08/17:11
2011/08/26:07
2011/09/04:03
2011/09/12:23
2011/09/21:19
2011/09/07:07
2011/09/30:01
2011/10/08:21
2011/10/17:17
2011/10/26:13
2011/11/04:09
2011/10/03:15
2013/01/30:18
2013/05/25:13
2013/06/03:09
2013/06/12:05
2013/06/21:01
2013/06/29:21
2013/06/07:08
2013/06/16:04
2014/04/01:08
R_Obs RNSCE=0.6997CC=0.85Bias=‐6.3%
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Synthetic Hydrograph• Timing • A power‐law frequency adjustment
100 101 102 103101
102
103
104
return period (in year)
stre
am fl
ow in
m3 /s
Upstream to Thomaston Dam
Downstream to Thomaston Dam
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Hydraulic Simulation by HEC‐RAS• River Profiling using LIDAR derived DEM of 1 m resolution
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Inundation ‐ different dam operation scenarios200 yr return flood 500 yr return flood
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BuildingTransformer
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Road Crossing Flood Risk Assessment ‐ Housatonic River
From Michael Jastremski, HVA
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An Example: Salmon Kill watershed
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Summary of the Results
56%
315 culverts modeled for Risk of Failure
86 culvertsFail within 25-Year interval
48 culvertsModerate to Severe barriers
(56% of those failing within the 25-Year interval)
From Michael Jastremski, HVA
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Summary• A fully‐physically based numerical hydrological framework, CREST‐SVAS, forced with atmospheric reanalysis has been developed to estimate flood frequency in mid‐ and northern‐latitude basins
• CREST‐SVAS has been applied to assess flood‐inundation and flood overtopping risks in conjunction with hydraulic models & LiDAR data
Work in progress• A real‐time early warning system of flood vulnerability based on weather‐forecasting driven CREST‐SVAS, in combination with storm & tide forecasts
• A novel regional flood frequency estimation method combining the strength of CREST‐SVAS numerical simulations and USGS network observations
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Und
er develop
ment: Re
al‐
Time Forecast System
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Slide 21
SX1 This figure needs to be updated according to the new dataShen, Xinyi, 4/10/2018
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RFFA Method According to IUH theory, the runoff of a basin can bedecomposed to that of its sub‐basins in the following form,
(1)
Carrying out Fourier transformation of (1), we have
(2)
Where stands for the time delay of the ith sub basin to the outlet and stands for the runoff of at the outlet and the ith sub‐basin.
where is the Fourier transformation of given by equation (3)
(3)
In a general case illustrated by the right Figure, theequation (4) could be derived from equation (2)
(4)
In order to solve FFA at no data location, the first step is to solve (4) for and .
No Data Location
Gauge Station
To extend the length of observation data, assuming simulationand observation satisfy a power law relationship
(5)
For yellow region, also could use (2) and derive equation (6)
(6)Simultaneous equations (4), (5) and (6) in the low frequencyrange, could solve , and . Finally, RFFA of nodata location could be derived from equation (7).
(7)
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01131500(1514)
01138500(2644)
01144500(4092)
01154500(5493)
01170500 (7860)
01172010 (8332)
01184000 (9660) 61.12%
31.88%
66.12%
57.86%
56.89%
57.55%
49.49%
Use daily Obs and Sims data of 7 main station on C.T river
ScenarioⅠ
(5)
(6)
(7)
ScenarioⅡ Eq(4),(6)&(7)
RFFA results
Eq(6)
① Power Law
② Same Frequency
③ IUH Theory
Ⅱ:Ⅰ Ⅱ:Ⅰ:B
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Statistical Approaches• Average stand errors of streamstats
• Large error• Short record length• No future projection• Subjective
2 10 25 50 100 500
CT 31.8 32.7 34.4 35.9 37.6 45.0
NJ 49 63.9
NC 25.0 73.3
OK 31 46
Available USGS records in CT (reported in 2004)
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A New RRFA method Under Construction
• Combine the strength of simulation and observation
Peak biased
Sparsely available
Record Length Future projection
Simulation √ × ‐1900 (New GLDAS)‐1949 (GLDAS)‐1979 (NLDAS)
2100
Observation × √ ‐1990 ×
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01154500+01138500 01170500+01138500
01172010+01138500 01184000+01138500
0.97:1:1.83 2.60:1:1.83
2.93:1:1.83 3.84:1:1.83
Preliminary Results
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01154500+01131500 01170500+01131500
01172010+01138500 01184000+0113150001172010+01131500
0.54:1:0.59 1.46:1:0.59
1.64:1:0.59 2.15:1:0.59
Preliminary Results