This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Concept and Methodology

Statistical and Decision-Making Support Model

Presented by Mr. Gábor HámoriairLED - Master class event in Bologna, 12-13 and 14 February

2014

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

• The statistical decision support model as a part of airLED project, conducted by the responsible Partner, namely the municipality of Budapest district 18.

• The conception of the statistical model was approved by the responsible Partner. Current status: construction of the database.

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Milestones of the conceptionI. Defining airport catchment area

II. Selecting initial set of Latent variables: determining the relevant statistical dimensions of the economic development, compilation of data

III. Database testing

IV. Refinement of the model estimate: recalculation and iteration, finalization of indicators

V. Analysis of economic indicators of airport companies

VI. Time series analysis of the final socio-economic indicators

VII. Define the predictive model

VIII. Modeling tool for transnational use

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Milestone I

• I. Statistical definition of the Impact zones.

Direct and indirect impact zones are in the scope of the model according to the Status Quo analysis. In the area of BUD Airport the direct impact zone consist of 6 Budapest districts 7 towns, and further 17 Budapest districts and 39 towns are related to the indirect impact zone. All together these 69 districts and towns are the observation units (statistical population) of the cross sectional database (2011 now).

In the database all units are marked by the impact zone status (direct or indirect).

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Milestone II

• II. Collecting the socio-economic dimensions (latent factors) and the related manifest variables of the impact zone of the BUD-Airport.

Issue of data collection:

Completness: Those data are appropriate which are available for all units, and all of the relevant data need to be collected.

Non-Redundancy : Avoid the redundancy among the information

Try to collect time series data for all towns included in the analysis.

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Initial latent socio-economic variables1. Demographic characteristics, geographical conditions

2. Employment, unemployment

3. Population income producing ability

4. Transportation infrastructure

5. Commercial infrastructure

6. Tourism, catering

7. Revenue generating capacity of municipalities

8. Economic activity of business

9. Income generating capacity of enterprises

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Initial manifest socio-economic variables

• Resident population• Population density (per km2)• Migration to settlement per thousand inhabitants• Migration from settlement per thousand inhabitants• Children per hundred people in active age• Elderly per hundred active age• Territory of the settlement (hectare)

1. Demographic characteristics, geographical conditions

• Employees• Registered jobseekers• Persons with low educational attainment• The number of registered unemployed per 100 working-age population

2. Employment, unemployment

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Initial manifest socio-economic variables

• All domestic income (HUF)• All domestic income per one person resident population• All income per one person resident population deviation from the national

average• 1 per taxpayer domestic income• Personal income tax per one inhabitant• Personal income tax per one taxpayer

3. Population income producing ability

• Public roads within the settlement area• Length of public urban roads• Municipal roads and public space within the settlement area • Length of municipal roads and public space • Optimized path length of time • Settlement terrestrial connectivity indicators• Settlement aerial connectivity indicators• Settlement of ground connection capacity

4. Transportation infrastructure

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Initial manifest socio-economic variables

5. Commercial infrastructure

• The number of retail shops • The number of wholesale warehouses

6. Tourism, catering

• Capacity of public accommodation establishments, specific indicators• Tourists and tourism nights in public accomodation , specific indicators

7. Revenue generating capacity of municipalities• Local business tax, specific indicators• Property(building) tax, specific indicators• Land tax, specific indicators• Communal tax (entrepreneurs and individuals), specific indicators• Tourism tax, specific indicators• Ceded central taxes (vehicle tax), specific indicators

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Initial manifest socio-economic variables

8. Economic activity of business

• Number of registered corporations by industries• The number of taxpayers per tax category• Economic structure – number of corporations, employees, income by industries

9. Income generating capacity of enterprises

• Gross value added• Total value added per 1 person resident population deviation from the GDP per capita• Profit after tax• Incomes of individual entrepreneurs• Taxes paid

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Milestones III-VI

• III. Testing the database, exploration of the direction and the intensity of

causual relationship between the indicators with Structural Equation

Modeling (SEM) metodology, filtering out the non relevant variables,

further data collection in the case of necessity, testreport .

• IV. Definition of the model, recalculation (refinement), documentation of

the final structure of the indicators.

• V. Time series analysis of statistical and ecomomic indicators of the

airport.

• VI. Time series analysis of the final socio-economic indicators derived from

town(district)-database.• The final socio-economic indicators of the airport data and the town (district) database

may relate for the same time period.

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Milestone VII

• VII. The predictive model– Analysis of the time series of statistical and

economic indicators of the airport and socio-economic indicator set of the towns (districts) in a joint modell

– Forecasting of predictors– Estimation of the target variables of a certain

town (local taxes, employment) by the forecasted predictors.

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Transnational application of the model

• The definition of the relevant socio-economic indicators of the impact zones and the related modeling activity based on different available hungarian database.

• Collection of analogous indicators recommended for the participant countries in the project. These indicators may have local characteristics.

• Following tables show the variables (indicators) proposed by the Status Quo evaluation.

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Index group Variables Aspect PeriodData on catchment areas

Population

Population HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Net migration in and out of the area PC,BP 2004-2011Number of people in employment HUN,PC,BP 2008-2012Number of registered unemployed people by sex HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Number of permanent residents HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Residents by age cohorts and sex HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011

Business activity

Number of active companies by NACE sectors HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Proportion of active companies in Budapest in various sectors BP 2008-2010Number of people in employment by NACE sector HUN,PC,BP 2004-2012Profile of the business and office parks in the close catchment area of the airport BP NATotal net take-up in the surveyed areas BP 2008-2012Total FDI flows in Hungary broken down by economic activities, net HUN 2008-2011Share of services within total FDI flows into Hungary HUN 2008-2011Number of international conferences HUN,BP 2004-2012Number of delegates and nationalities at international conferences HUN 2004-2012Hungary’s and Budapest’s rank in the international ranking of conference locations HUN,BP 2011

Tourism

Foreign visitors to Hungary by country HUN 2012Number of foreign visitors to Hungary by country of origin HUN 2004-2012Number of foreign guests in collective tourist accommodation establishments HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Capacity of collective tourist accomodation establishments HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Nights spent by foreign guests in collective tourist accomodation establishments HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Number of rooms in four- and five-star hotels HUN,PC,BP 2008-2012Utilization of rooms in hotels HUN,BP 2004-2011

RevenuesEU funds to Hungary in the latest budget periods: funds which can be applied for HUN 2007-2020EU funds to Central Hungary in the 2007-2013 budget period, by priority themes, (HUF): funds which have been istributed C-HUN 2007-2013Administrative income at the local level HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011

Housing Number of new dwelling and new housing space in square metres HUN,PC,BP 2004-2011Construction permits shifted forward by 3 quarters and occupancy permits HUN 1995-2013

Airport Share of existing legally declared for ms of environmental protection in the direct and in direct impact zone of the airport

Catchment area NA

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Index group Variables Aspect PeriodData on BUD Airport and environment

Airport

Share of respective groups of land in the area of restricted use BUD Airport NANumber of people inhabiting the area of restricted use BUD Airport NACarried out and planned investments inside the borders of the airport and in its impact area BUD Airport NAShare of lands with diverse uses – actual situation BUD Airport NAShare of land with diverse uses – final state according to the airport master plan BUD Airport NAChange of share of areas with diverse functions BUD Airport NA

Passenger traffic at Hungarian airports HUN,BUD Airport 2010

Cargo traffic at Hungarian airports HUN,BUD Airport 2010Passenger traffic at Hungarian airports HUN,BUD Airport 2004-2010

Cargo traffic at Hungarian airports HUN,BUD Airport 2004-2010Passenger and cargo traffic at Budapest Airports BUD Airport 2004-2010

Monthly passenger traffic in Budapest Airports BUD Airport 2010-2011

Monthly cargo traffic in Budapest Airport BUD Airport 2010-2011Authorities with headquarters (HungaroControl) or offices (Airport Police Department, Tax and Custom Office and the Transport Safety Authority) at the airport site BUD Airport 2011

Companies at the Budapest Airport by profile BUD Airport 2011BUD Airport Air connectivity BUD Airport NAVolume and trend of the yearly air cargo to and from the airport in the past 10 years BUD Airport 2002-2012Existing services at the airport BUD Airport NA

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF.

Preliminary data collection concept for the partner region

• The set of indicators will be finalized on Hungarian databases. In this step the partner regions do not have to provide any kind of data.

• The finalized set of indicators related to the impact zone will be sent to the partner regions. These indicators should be sent for the available time periods then. The indicators are not country-specific, so they likely to be available in each partner region.

• The forecasting model requires turnover time series data of the project related partner-airports for the available time period.