statistics 2006 01 01 06
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Statistics 2006
The statistical data presented in this section has
been collected with the assistance of the national
gas associations and member companies of
Eurogas. Additionally, for a full picture of the
enlarged Union (EU27), data was kindly provided
by natural gas companies from, Latvia, Estonia,
Lithuania and Bulgaria (Latvijas Gaze, Eesti Gas, AB
Lietuvos Dujos, Overgas). Malta and Cyprus are not
included as they are not supplied with natural gas.
As a consequence of the increasing number
of players in the liberalised European natural
gas market, it should be stressed that it now
becomes increasingly difficult to collect energy
data. The data shown in this report is based on
available national or European official statistics,
gas industries information, completed with best
estimates, which Eurogas has combined to give
the best comprehensive survey at the time of
publishing this annual report. Members of the
Eurogas Statistics and Forecasting Committee
made a substantial contribution to the statistics
presented.
25
Part
B
Statistical Data & Taxes
Eurogas Members and EU27: Natural Gas Trends 2006
24,5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
NL HU UK I RO LV SK TK IRE LUX LT BEL EU 27 A GER DK S CZ P FR SLO BUL EST POL FIN CH GR SW
2006 Share of Natural Gas in Primary Energy Consumption (%)
26
2006 Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) in EUROGAS member countries & EU27
1. Primary Energy Consumption
AUSTRIA 14,29 3,58 7,79 0,00 2,96 0,60 4,35 0,00 33,57
BELGIUM 21,71 5,17 14,61 12,15 0,00 0,94 1,47 0,00 56,05
BULGARIA 4,93 6,94 2,80 4,90 0,40 -0,60 0,00 0,70 20,07
CZECH REPUBLIC 9,21 21,76 8,37 6,79 0,28 -1,09 0,18 -0,82 44,68
DENMARK 8,26 5,54 4,56 0,00 0,00 -0,60 3,07 0,21 21,05
ESTONIA 1,13 2,93 0,74 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,72 0,00 5,52
FINLAND 8,62 7,33 3,84 5,73 0,99 0,98 7,14 0,71 35,33
FRANCE 91,30 12,41 39,36 117,32 5,49 -5,45 12,80 0,00 273,23
GERMANY 123,30 82,40 78,50 43,60 1,80 -1,70 19,20 1,40 348,50
GREECE 17,60 9,10 2,30 0,00 1,20 0,00 0,00 0,70 30,90
HUNGARY 7,24 3,14 11,70 3,50 0,02 0,63 1,31 0,05 27,59
IRELAND 8,40 1,80 4,46 0,00 0,10 0,10 0,30 0,00 15,16
ITALY 84,74 17,37 69,70 0,00 3,70 9,84 10,25 0,00 195,60
LATVIA 1,40 1,50 1,57 0,00 0,50 0,00 0,00 0,00 4,97
LITHUANIA 2,69 0,27 2,46 2,43 0,00 0,00 0,75 0,00 8,60
LUXEMBOURG* 2,92 0,11 1,37 0,00 0,01 0,31 0,03 0,04 4,79
NETHERLANDS 29,00 8,00 34,10 0,90 0,00 1,80 0,30 2,80 76,90
POLAND 20,04 61,27 12,29 0,00 0,20 -0,94 0,00 4,84 97,70
PORTUGAL 15,40 6,30 4,50 0,00 0,90 0,60 0,10 0,00 27,80
ROMANIA 5,50 7,29 9,82 1,43 1,40 0,00 2,92 0,00 28,36
SLOVAKIA 3,55 4,20 5,93 4,62 0,39 -0,28 0,45 0,32 19,18
SLOVENIA 2,49 1,56 1,02 1,42 0,32 0,00 0,48 0,00 7,29
SPAIN 70,90 18,10 30,00 15,70 2,20 -0,30 7,70 0,00 144,30
SWEDEN 17,30 2,40 0,90 16,70 5,30 0,50 10,10 0,50 53,70
UNITED KINGDOM 77,00 45,70 90,90 17,10 0,60 0,60 0,20 0,00 232,10
EU 27 648,92 336,17 443,58 254,29 28,76 5,94 83,33 11,44 1812,93
SWITZERLAND 12,92 0,15 2,71 6,84 2,80 0,23 1,01 1,19 27,86
TURKEY 31,90 22,90 28,90 0,00 3,70 -0,10 6,60 0,00 93,90
Oil Solid Fossil Fuels
Natural Gas
Nuclear Electricity
Hydro Electricity
Electricity Net
Import
Rene-wables
Others Total
MTDE
Notes: Nuclear and hydro electricity are domestically produced. Renewables include biomass, wind solar and geothermal energy.
3,7
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
LUX FIN SW BEL NL CZ FR GER EST A DK UK CH EU 27 SLO IRE SK I S GR HU P BUL POL LT LV RO TK
Natural gas
Oil
Solid Fossil Fuels
Nuclear Electricity
Hydro Electricity and imports
Renewables
Others
24%
35%
19%
14%
2%5% 1%
2006 Primary Energy Consumption by fuel (EU27)
2006 Primary Energy Consumption per capita (TOE)
27
2006 Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) per capita and per GDP unit
Austria 4,06 0,14
Belgium 5,33 0,20
Bulgaria 2,60 1,07
Czech Republic 4,36 0,57
Denmark 3,88 0,11
Estonia 4,11 0,55
Finland 6,72 0,22
France 4,34 0,17
Germany 4,23 0,16
Greece 2,78 0,19
Hungary 2,74 0,41
Ireland 3,60 0,11
Italy 3,33 0,16
Latvia 2,17 0,35
Lithuania 2,53 0,44
Luxembourg 10,42 0,17
Netherlands 4,71 0,17
Poland 2,56 0,43
Portugal 2,63 0,22
Romania 1,31 0,49
Slovakia 3,56 0,64
Slovenia 3,64 0,27
Spain (p) 3,30 0,19
Sweden 5,94 0,17
United Kingdom 3,84 0,13
EU 27 TOTAL 3,69 0,18
Switzerland 3,73 0,09
Turkey 1,29 0,33
PEC/ Capita
PEC/GDPTOE
Note: Eurostat figures
2. Final Energy Consumption
2006 Final Energy Consumption (FEC) in EUROGAS member countries & EU27
AUSTRIA* 11,82 0,62 4,82 4,85 4,28 26,39
BELGIUM 20,26 2,09 10,92 6,9 0,98 41,15
BULGARIA* 4,30 0,80 1,40 2,20 1,80 10,50
CZECH REPUBLIC 7,27 4,11 6,73 4,78 4,17 27,06
DENMARK 7,45 0,27 1,69 2,93 3,56 15,90
ESTONIA 0,82 0,07 0,11 0,50 0,96 2,46
FINLAND 9,17 1,14 1,34 7,04 7,94 26,62
FRANCE 84,73 6,97 32,61 36,78 13,98 175,07
GERMANY 89,00 23,60 55,70 43,50 11,70 223,50
GREECE* 14,50 0,60 0,60 4,30 1,30 21,30
HUNGARY 6,76 0,87 7,51 2,87 1,70 19,71
IRELAND 8,00 0,50 1,40 2,00 0,20 12,10
ITALY 68,43 4,77 42,04 26,42 1,91 143,57
LATVIA* 1,20 1,00 0,50 0,50 0,60 3,80
LITHUANIA* 1,70 0,20 1,00 0,70 1,50 5,10
LUXEMBOURG 2,92 0,11 0,76 0,56 0,08 4,43
NETHERLANDS 24,90 2,20 20,60 9,00 5,10 61,80
POLAND 18,50 9,75 10,04 11,30 9,81 59,40
PORTUGAL* 10,70 0,10 1,40 3,70 2,80 18,70
ROMANIA* 4,00 2,00 7,00 3,30 5,30 21,60
SLOVAKIA* 2,18 0,63 3,59 1,97 0,95 9,32
SLOVENIA 2,49 0,08 0,73 1,19 0,67 5,16
SPAIN 61,00 2,30 16,60 21,50 4,10 105,50
SWEDEN 11,30 1,50 0,70 11,30 10,00 34,80
UNITED KINGDOM 71,05 2,64 52,76 30,08 1,28 157,79
EU 27 544,44 68,92 282,55 240,16 96,66 1232,74
SWITZERLAND 11,90 0,15 2,55 4,97 1,65 21,22
TURKEY 26,30 11,80 13,70 12,00 8,80 72,60
Oil Solid Fossil Fuels
Natural Gas
Electricity Others Total
2006 Primary Energy Consumption by fuel (EU27)
Natural Gas
Oil
Solif Fossil Fuels
Electricity
Others
23%
44%
6%
19%
8%
28
Notes: Electricity includes electricity produced by CHP-plants. Heat produced by CHP-plants is included in "Others". Others includes heat (e.g. district heating) and non-electricity generating renewables (e.g. biomass generated heat).
MTDE
2006 Natural Gas sales by sector (EU27)
Residential and Commercial
Industry
Power Plants
Others
36%
33%
24%
7%
29
3. Inland deliveries
2006 Inland Sales of Natural Gas by sector in Eurogas Member Countries EU27
AUSTRIA 62,00 43,00 105,00 112,00 121,00 0,00 338,00
BELGIUM n.a. n.a. 317,60 179,90 188,00 0,00 685,50
BULGARIA 3,57 1,43 5,00 77,40 36,38 0,00 118,78
CZECH REPUBLIC 106,10 45,10 151,20 193,90 0,00 6,50 351,60
DENMARK 28,12 7,74 35,86 34,80 38,62 81,86 191,15
ESTONIA 2,01 1,69 3,70 18,30 3,19 14,60 39,79
FINLAND 1,62 1,79 3,41 85,91 44,84 46,13 180,29
FRANCE 677,00 326,00 1003,00 655,81 12,88 158,28 1830,68
GERMANY 1090,00 105,00 1195,00 1500,00 390,00 535,00 3620,00
GREECE n.a. n.a. 6,80 26,50 74,40 1,00 108,70
HUNGARY 169,50 93,50 263,00 79,00 152,80 38,10 532,90
IRELAND 29,34 14,93 44,27 21,94 113,88 6,68 186,77
ITALY 919,00 230,00 1149,00 802,00 1202,00 65,00 3218,00
LATVIA 4,27 4,50 8,77 12,17 34,63 0,00 55,57
LITHUANIA 6,50 4,20 10,70 45,80 55,70 1,30 113,50
LUXEMBOURG* 17,10 18,00 35,10 0,00 19,60 0,00 54,70
NETHERLANDS 334,12 348,18 682,30 629,55 288,39 0,00 1600,24
POLAND 149,50 55,40 204,90 282,40 39,40 11,40 538,10
PORTUGAL n.a. n.a. 12,20 76,10 83,80 0,00 172,10
ROMANIA 72,54 16,38 88,92 149,40 115,44 38,22 391,98
SLOVAKIA 58,76 19,79 78,55 117,77 2,32 34,96 233,60
SLOVENIA 6,10 2,60 8,70 32,10 0,20 3,40 44,40
SPAIN 141,30 44,10 185,40 737,70 484,90 0,00 1408,00
SWEDEN 1,14 7,43 8,57 22,21 9,40 0,00 40,19
UNITED KINGDOM 1313,00 378,00 1691,00 552,00 1197,00 330,00 3770,00
EU 27 7297,96 6444,66 4708,77 1372,44 19824,54
SWITZERLAND 45,60 24,50 70,10 40,30 0,00 15,30 125,80
TURKEY n.a. n.a. 277,00 299,00 636,00 0,00 1212,00
Residen-tial
Commer-cial
Res & com total
Industry Powerplants
Others Total Inland salesPJ 2006
Breakdown of EU27 Natural Gas Net-Supplies
Indigenous production
38%
Norway
16%
Algeria
10%
Russia
23%
Trinidad Tobago
Libya
Nigeria
Gulf countries
1%1%
Others*
5%
Egypt
2%
2%
2%
30
4. Natural Gas Supplies
Eurogas Member Countries and EU27
AUSTRIA 73 -55,0 368,0 -30,0 -18,0 338,0
BELGIUM 0 216,4 471,7 -0,5 -2,1 685,5
BULGARIA 18 0,0 100,6 0,0 0,0 118,8
CZECH REPUBLIC 3 0,0 371,0 -22,2 0,0 351,7
DENMARK 390 -196,3 0,0 -4,1 1,2 191,2
ESTONIA 0 0,0 33,9 0,0 0,0 33,9
FINLAND 0 0,0 180,5 0,0 -0,1 180,3
FRANCE 45 304,7 1531,5 -41,7 -8,8 1830,7
GERMANY 659 340,0 2705,0 -60,0 -24,0 3620,0
GREECE 0 0,0 108,5 0,0 0,2 108,7
HUNGARY 111 42,0 396,0 -15,9 0,0 532,9
IRELAND 19 167,6 0,0 0,1 0,0 186,8
ITALY 418 346,0 2588,0 -134,0 0,0 3218,0
LATVIA 0 0,0 55,6 0,0 0,0 55,6
LITHUANIA 0 0,0 113,5 0,0 0,0 113,5
LUXEMBOURG* 0 54,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 54,7
NETHERLANDS 2578 -1415,6 437,9 0,0 0,0 1600,2
POLAND 169 17,1 377,2 -18,8 -6,6 537,8
PORTUGAL 0 -5,7 189,2 -7,9 -3,5 172,1
ROMANIA 277 0,0 118,0 0,0 -2,9 392,0
SLOVAKIA 3 -15,2 241,8 3,7 0,0 233,6
SLOVENIA 0 0,0 45,0 -1,3 0,9 44,6
SPAIN 3 0,0 1473,2 -22,4 -46,0 1407,7
SWEDEN 0 40,4 0,0 0,0 -0,2 40,2
UNITED KINGDOM 3349 -401,0 846,0 -23,0 -1,0 3770,0
EU 27 8115 -559,95 12757,99 -378,1 -111,0 19824,0
SWITZERLAND 0 121,9 3,9 0,0 0,0 125,8
TURKEY 32 0,0 1157,0 0,0 23,0 1212,0
Indige-nous Pro-duction
Total Net-Import EU
Total Net- Import non-EU
Changes in stock
Other balances
Total Net SuppliesPJ - GCV
Changes in stocks: (-) Injection (+) Withdrawal
*Including supplies from sources which can not be identified.
Algeria
34%
Egypt
15%
Nigeria
18%
Middle East
12%
Trinidad Tobago
8%
Others*
13%
17%
2006 Net-import from non EU countries by transport EU27
6. Storage Facilities
Natural Gas Storages at 1 January 2007
AUSTRIA 4 2820 33
BELGIUM 2 779 46
BULGARIA 1 1000 8
CZECH REPUBLIC 9 3376 55
DENMARK 2 881 22
ESTONIA 0 0 0
FINLAND 0 0 0
FRANCE 15 11700 200
GERMANY 44 19138 463
GREECE 1 75 5
HUNGARY 5 3400 48
IRELAND 1 198 3
ITALY 10 13400 152
LATVIA 1 2325 25
LITHUANIA 0 0 0
LUXEMBOURG* 0 0 0
NETHERLANDS 3 3500 30
POLAND 7 1651 34
PORTUGAL 1 90 7
ROMANIA 6 2850 40
SLOVAKIA 3 2066 32
SLOVENIA 0 0 0
SPAIN 2 1659 12
SWEDEN 1 10 1
UNITED KINGDOM 9 4364 127
EU 27 127 75282 1341
SWITZERLAND 0 72 2
TURKEY 0 5 22
Number of storage facilities
Maximum working volume*
Maximum withdrawal capacity**
Breakdown of EU27 Supplies of LNG
31
2006 LNG Supplies in EUROGAS Member Countries and EU27
BELGIUM 205,10
FRANCE 564,40
GREECE 17,80
ITALY 120,00
PORTUGAL 73,00
SPAIN 1023,40
UNITED KINGDOM 135,00
EU 27 2138,70
TURKEY 203,00
LNG Imports
5. LNG Imports
PJ - GCV
*Including supplies from sources which can not be identified.
*Million m3.**Million m3/day.
Pipeline83%
LNG17%
32
7. Natural Gas Industry in Figures
32
AUSTRIA 1370000 2700 n.a. n.a. 35100
BELGIUM 2714000 3800 3818 59629 63447
BULGARIA 31000 2900 1800 2200 4000
CZECH REPUBLIC 2823102 4811 3650 70787 74437
DENMARK 365000 1400 1439 17000 18439
ESTONIA 55500 315 879 1395 2210
FINLAND 35525 145 1100 1610 2710
FRANCE 11493000 26000 36510 190887 227397
GERMANY 19000000 35000 n.a. n.a. 400000
GREECE 61570 1089 994 3393 4387
HUNGARY 3428000 5643 5278 80825 86103
IRELAND 576231 113 2156 9316 11472
ITALY 20215000 30000 32189 226000 258189
LATVIA 437200 1328 1281 4381 5662
LITHUANIA 541000 1820 1800 7200 9000
LUXEMBOURG* 84000 210 405 1960 2365
NETHERLANDS 6590000 8950 11600 135300 146900
POLAND 6418157 19000 17274 103177 120451
PORTUGAL 855000 766 1431 11021 12452
ROMANIA 2140000 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11800
SLOVAKIA 1461524 4653 2270 30695 32965
SLOVENIA 20000 430 990 2400 3390
SPAIN 6476778 5927 9135 49735 58870
SWEDEN 55000 200 650 2150 2800
UNITED KINGDOM 22182000 51600 6962 274600 281562
EU 27 109428587 208800 143611 1285661 1876108
SWITZERLAND 475000 1650 2220 14838 17058
TURKEY n.a. n.a. 7320 2558 9878
Numberof gas
customers
Numberof
employees
Length of Transmission
pipelines
Length of Distribution pipelines
Totallength of pipelines
Conversion factors
1 PJ (GCV) = 25.6 million m3 gas
1 m of natural gas = 39 mega joules (MJ - GCV) = 10.8 kWh
1 Mtoe = 1 million tones of oil equivalent = 41.86 PJ (NCV)
1000 m3 of natural gas = 0.9 ton oil equivante (toe - crude oil)
1 BCM = 1 billion cubic meters
1 cubic meter (m3) = 35.315 cubic feet (cf)
1 million m3 of LNG = 593 million m3 of gas
Net Caloric value (NCV) = 0.9 Gross calorific value (GCV)
1 megajoule = 106 joules (MJ)
1 gigajoule = 109 joules (GJ)
1 terajoule = 1012 joules (TJ)
1 petajoule = 1015 joules (PJ)
Heat units
1 Gigajoule (GJ) 1 277.8 0.948 238.9 9.479
1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) 3.6 10-3 1 3.411 10-3 0.86 3.411 10-2
1 million British Thermal Units (MBtu) 1.055 293.2 1 252 10
1 thermie (th) 4.186 10-3 1.162 3.968 10-3 1 3.968 10-2
1 therm 0.1055 29.32 1 10-1 25.2 1
GJ kWh MBtu th therm
33
8. Definitions and Conversion Factors
Internationally agreed statistical methods and definitions have been applied. Primary Energy
Consumption is defined as the total gross energy supply (indigenous production plus net
imports) before any conversion of the primary energy into final energy forms has taken
place. Final Energy Consumption is the Primary Energy Consumption less net energy
losses in the production of electricity and synthetic gas, refinery use and other energy
sector uses and losses. Natural Gas sales and supplies have been stated in PJ because of
different national gas qualities. With an assumed energy content of 1 m3 of natural gas of
39 MJ (Gross Calorific Value), 1 PJ corresponds to approx. 25.6 million m3 of natural gas.
Energy Taxes
34
Residential Sector
[EU] The values shown for EU are the proposed minimum levels by the European Commission.
GAS OIL
I S DK GR A E UK D F FIN CZ EU B PL CH NL
EURO /GJ EURO/MW h LPG
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
DK S NL I D A B GR CH CZ E F FIN PL UK EU
EURO /G J
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EURO /MW h
NATURAL GAS
0
5
10
15
20
DK S NL I D A FIN B EU CH CZ E F GR PL UK
EURO/G J
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EURO /MW h ELECTRICITY
0
5
10
15
20
DK NL S D A F FIN PL B EU E CH CZ GR I UK
EURO /GJ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EURO/MW h
E n e r g y T a x e s - R e s i d e n t i a l S e c to r 1 . 9 . 2 0 0 7 (V A T e x c l . )
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
DK S NL I D A FIN B EU C H C Z E F G R PL UK
EURO / GJEURO /M W h
G a s o i l L P G N a tu r a l g a s E l e c t ri c i ty
35
Commercial Sector
In these tables a comparaison between taxation levels of competing sources of energy is given (at 1.09.2007). All types of energy taxes
(directly levied on the energy sold /consumed) are covered, regardless of their labels and professed objectives, except taxes on motor fuel.
The following pages present a short overview of the preliminary results of Eurogas Taxation report 2007. The Report is available on the Eurogas
web-site (www.eurogas.org).
[EU] The values shown for EU are the proposed minimum levels by the European Commission.
HFO (±0.5%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
S PL UK A FIN DK I D F CZ EU B E CH G R NL
EURO /G J
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
EURO /MW hG AS O IL
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
I S NL A E UK D F FIN DK CZ GR EU B PL CH
EURO /G J
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
EURO /MW h
LPG
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
S NL I D A DK B GR UK CH CZ E F FIN PL EU
EURO /G J
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
EURO /MW h
N AT U R AL G AS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
S NL D A DK UK FIN I F B EU CH CZ E GR PL
EURO /G J
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
EURO /MW h
E n e r g y T a x e s - C o m m e r c i a l S e c to r 1 . 9 . 2 0 0 7 (V A T e x c l . )
S NL D A DK UK FIN I F B EU C H C Z E G R PL
EURO /G J EURO/M W h
HFO ( ± 0 .5 % S) G a s o il L PG Na tu ra l g a s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
1
2
3
4
9
10
11
12
5
6
7
8
36
Industry Sector
[EU] The values shown for EU are the proposed minimum levels by the European Commission.
COAL
0
1
2
3
S A DK FIN UK NL B F D EU CH CZ E GR I PL
EURO /G J
0
2
4
6
8
10
EURO /MW h H FO (±0.5% )
0
1
2
3
S UK PL A FIN DK NL I D GR F CZ EU B E CH
EURO /GJ
0
2
4
6
8
10
EURO /MW h
N AT U R AL G AS
0
1
2
3
A D NL S DK UK FIN I F EU B CH CZ E PL GR
EURO /G JEURO /MW h
E n e r g y T a x e s - I n d u s t r y (p r o c e s s ) 1 . 9 . 2 0 0 7 ( V A T e x c l . )
0 ,0
0 ,5
1 ,0
1 ,5
2 ,0
2 ,5
3 ,0
A D NL S DK UK FIN I F EU B C H C Z E G R PL
EURO /G J
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EURO /M W h
C o a l H F O ( ± 0 . 5 % S ) N a t u ra l g a s
Power Sector
[EU] The values shown for EU are the proposed minimum levels by the European Commission.
COAL
0
1
2
3
A S B D I CH CZ DK E F FIN GR NL PL UK
EURO/G J
0
2
4
6
8
10
EURO /MW hHFO (±0.5%)
0
1
2
3
PL UK A D GR F CZ I S CH B DK E FIN NL
EURO/G J
0
2
4
6
8
10
EURO /MW h
NATURAL GAS
0
1
2
3
A D B CH I CZ DK E F FIN GR NL PL S UK
EURO/G J
0
2
4
6
8
10
EURO /MW h
E n e r g y T a x e s - P o w e r G e n e r a t i o n 1 . 9 . 2 0 0 7 (V A T e x c l . )
0 ,0 0
0 ,2 5
0 ,5 0
0 ,7 5
1 ,0 0
1 ,2 5
1 ,5 0
1 ,7 5
2 ,0 0
2 ,2 5
A D B C H I CZ DK E F FIN GR NL PL S UK
EURO /G J
0 ,0
1 ,0
2 ,0
3 ,0
4 ,0
5 ,0
6 ,0
7 ,0
8 ,0
EURO /M W h
C o a l H F O ( ± 0 . 5 % S ) N a tu ra l g a s
37
1. Background
On different occasions, Eurogas is asked to present its views on the future of the European gas industry. The
forecasts are mainly needed for conferences and bilateral discussions with European institutions. Until now,
Eurogas has used IEA, Cedigaz and other available sources. It seems however increasingly necessary for the
organisation to have its own consistent forecast available as well as being aware of other groups’ views on the
future trends of the European gas market.
For the purpose of this analysis, Eurogas set up a Forecasting Task Force (FTF). The main objective of the Task
Force can be described as “evaluating and analysing the future role of natural gas in Europe”.
2. Methodology
In Spring 2007, the Eurogas members were asked to report to Eurogas their expectations concerning supply
and demand in their home markets until 2030 in a standardised questionnaire, based on their national policies
in place.
3. EU Energy Demand
The factors determining future energy demand in the EU27 include:
• continued economic growth of more than 2% p.a.,
• hardly any rise in population,
• oil prices remaining at a high level
• gas prices determined by market forces,
• increased environmental awareness in politics and among consumers,
• growing trend to save energy and to improve energy efficiency,
• thoughts at national level to use nuclear energy and expand the use of renewables.
38
NATURAL GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY LONG T
39
Part
C
TERM OUTLOOK TO 2030
Because of “its green properties” and highly efficient application technologies, natural gas will remain the fuel
of choice and will continue to make a growing contribution to energy supply in the EU27. Natural gas can
play an important role as a bridging fuel to a sustainable energy future over the coming decades. Natural gas
consumption in EU member states is expected to increase from 438 mtoe in 2005 to 625 mtoe in 2030, which
is an increase of 43%. The share of natural gas in the European primary energy demand will rise from 23,9% in
2005 to 29.9% in 2030 (18% in 1990). At 60% of the total demand increase, most of the growth will come from
power generation.
4. Growing market share expected for natural gas
Over the period the share of natural gas is expected to reach 30% of the Primary energy Consumption.
At 0.5% p.a., the increase in energy consumption in the EU27 over the next 25 years will be disproportionately
low in comparison to other parts of the world (+ 1.6%). Investment in new energy efficiency efforts and climate
change commitments by the EU will result in a significant 34% improvement of energy efficiency in the EU27.
Energy scenarios developed under a number of different objectives have one common message: fossil energy
sources will continue to be the backbone of European energy supply over the next twenty five years.
Energy Intensity in EU27: PEC to GDP
2005
0,20
0,18
0,16
0,14
0,12
0,10
0,08
0,06
0,04
0,02
0,00
2010 2015 2020 20302025
toe/
thou
snad
Eu
ro
Improvements in energy efficiency
24,1%26,0%
27,4%28,8% 29,7% 30,1%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
40
4.2 Industrial sector
Gas currently accounts for 33 % of industrial final energy consumption (excluding industrial power stations) and
is thus a major source of energy in this market, too. This sector is traditionally successful in energy conservation.
Given the strong international competition facing the European industry, the sector had to adapt and decrease
its production costs. This explains the continuous investments necessary to renew the production plants. This
trend is likely to continue in the future. That means: the increase in energy consumption due to production
developments will largely be cancelled out by efficiency-improving investments in plant modernisation and
replacements.
In this sector, the price of energy plays an important role and only if natural gas can be supplied at competitive
prices would gas be in a position to expand its market share and its sales volumes at the expense of oil
and coal. On this assumption and with some support from emissions trading, gas sales to industry could be
increased by some 1%/a to 156 mtoe until 2030.
4.1 Residential and commercial sector
In the residential and commercial sector, gas consumption has steadily increased in line with the expansion of
the infrastructure and the associated rise in the number of gas users. Over the last 15 years, gas consumption
has seen a 2.8% growth p.a. to 175 mtoe. Gas currently holds a market share of approx. 35 %, which makes
it the market leader in this sector. In 2005, approx. 80 million homes in the EU27 were supplied with gas. In
the future, the population in the EU27 will grow only moderately. In some countries it is even likely to decrease.
Further market penetration in this market segment will also slow down considerably. The reasons are, firstly,
there is already high market penetration in some major gas consuming countries, as over time other countries
will also reach gradually saturation in the residential and commercial market. Secondly, the low population
density, settlement structures and topographical conditions in some countries set relatively narrow economic
limits to greater market penetration. Further factors likely to limit gas demand include the improved energy
efficiency of buildings, either through the implementation of better thermal insulation standards or the use of new
heating systems with higher energy efficiencies or, in some countries, increased competition from renewables.
All these factors are likely to slow down volume growth quite substantially. Until 2030, Eurogas expects gas
sales to increase by only 0.4%/a to 194 mtoe.
EU27 Natural Gas demand outlook by sector
Residetial & Commercial
Industry
Power Generation
Others (NGV + Heat Plants
and Others)
0
10 0
20 0
30 0
40 0
50 0
60 0
70 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
M T O E ]
175
118
123
180
128
158
187
137
181
191
145
209
193
150
226
194
156
239438
493535
578 603 625
41
4.3. Power generation
The role of natural gas for power generation has increased significantly, ever since the 1990s, particularly
because of developments in the UK, in Italy and Spain. Today, gas-fired power stations produce one fifth of the
electricity in the EU27 (7.5% in 1990).
Various special factors must be borne in mind when assessing the future use of gas in power generation. In this
particular field, the present situation for gas is extremely heterogeneous due to diverse natural conditions as well
as economic and political decisions in the individual member states.
Further developments in this sector may depend on the energy policy (mainly nuclear) of the individual countries,
the integration of renewables in electricity generation and the evolution of the European trading scheme. The
price of gas will determine the load factor in which gas-fired power generation may/will be used.
The main competitors of natural gas are coal and oil as well as renewables. For our analysis, we have assumed
that the current stated national nuclear policy will continue to be pursued.
Eurogas expects the largest increase in gas consumption to come from power generation (from 123 mtoe in
2005 to 239 mtoe in 2030). The annual growth rate in this market segment during this period is expected to
be 2.7%, which means that power generation should increase its share from 28% (2005) to 38% of total gas
demand in 2030.
The reasons for the expected growth in the power sector are well known, notably the environmental benefits of
gas over coal, the shorter plant construction times and the highly efficient technology.
Despite these positive trends however, future demand increase may not be as strong as forecasted above,
because of higher and more volatile natural gas prices, the effect of environmental protection measures, the
increased use of renewables in power generation and in the heat market, a possible revival of nuclear energy
and the greater climate change awareness. These concerns reflect an increasing uncertainty regarding future
gas demand.
RESIDENTIAL and
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRY
POWER
GENERATION and
CHP
OTHERS (NGV+Heat
Pumps+Others)
62 %
42
5. Supply
While gas demand in Europe will rise by 43% by 2030, domestic production will decrease. Today European
production (incl. Norway) accounts for 59 % of supplies to EU gas markets and is expected to drop to a third
by 2020 and to a quarter by 2030. Against this background, the European gas industry has already contracted
gas deliveries from regions outside Europe that fully cover the foreseeable demand in the medium term. It is
not until 2015 that a gap emerges between demand and the supplies coming from European production or
imported from outside Europe.
The proportion of additional supplies needed will gradually widen from 10% in 2015 to 22% in 2020 and to
approx. 39% in 2030. This is not a fundamentally new phenomenon, but reflects the long-term supply situation:
the further one looks into the future, the larger the volumes still needed are considered to be.
Consequently, the European gas industry is now focusing its gas procurement especially on the period after
2015.
Today, it can basically be assumed that for the European gas industry, which is becoming ever more dependent
on imports, there are sufficient gas reserves available in the long run in countries which are accessible in terms of
transmission distances. They include Russia, countries on the Gulf and in North and West Africa. Of the world's
proven recoverable gas reserves totalling 181.46 trillion m³ with a static life of 63 years, 75 % are located in such
countries situated at a favourable distance from Europe. Nevertheless, new additional gas will come from more
distant regions and from fields that are increasingly difficult to develop with the consequence of rising production
and transport costs.
Taking into account the growing gas demand world wide and the decreasing indigenous production in Europe,
it will require a huge effort and substantial investments of the suppliers to mobilise this gas in time.
Besides, when assessing supply options, it has to be kept in mind that competition for supplies will become
far stiffer on international procurement markets. Other regions like North America and South-East Asia with its
emerging economies will increasingly compete for gas on the world market.
Additional Supplies
to be defined
Contracted imports
an possible prolongations
from outside Europe
Potential Norwegian
exports
Indigenous Production
(EU27)
Mio
e
43
Having strengthened its competitive position in comparison with pipeline gas over long distances LNG will
globalize the gas market and open further potential gas sources for Europe. LNG is a fast growing sector in the
world gas market. Global LNG shipments rose by approx. 12% last year to around 181 mtoe/y. In 2006 LNG
imports in Europe rose to almost 52 mtoe/y, representing a share of 11% of the total gas market.
A number of new LNG terminals are under construction, while existing terminals are expanded. The regasification
capacity in Europe will double from 69 mtoe/y to 142 mtoe/y in 2010. In the long term LNG could represent
25% of the total EU supplies.
To make all the necessary additional volumes available to Europe, substantial investments are needed in the
medium to long term. Over the period, it is estimated that 221 Billion euro of investments will be needed in
the European gas sector1. These investment needs exist at all stages of the supply chain: exploration and
development, transmission systems incl. LNG infrastructure as well as storage capacity.
Despite the increasing importance of short term contractual agreements, long-term supply contracts will remain
the backbone of the European gas supplies. For one thing, long-term import contracts provide the requisite
security and prospects for investments totalling billions of euros in the upstream sector and they ensure that
new import infrastructures are fully utilised.
Whether or not it proves possible in the future to mobilise gas reserves and direct them towards European
markets finally depends on the general framework for the energy industry on sales markets, on the availability of
investments as well as on how the market value obtainable for gas develops in the course of time.
EU27 import dependency from outside Europe
41%
48%
60%
68% 71%74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1EC forecasts