Title PageContentsPrefacePART I. DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTSChapter 1. Controlled Experiments1. The Salk Vaccine Field Trial2. The Portacaval Shunt3. Historical Controls4. SummaryChapter 2. Observational Studies1. Introduction2. The Clofibrate Trial3. More Examples4. Sex Bias in Graduate Admissions5. Confounding6. Review Exercises7. Summary and OverviewPART II. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICSChapter 3. The Histogram1. Introduction2. Drawing a Histogram3. The Density Scale4. Variables5. Controlling for a Variable6. Cross-Tabulation7. Selective Breeding8. Review Exercises9. SummaryChapter 4. The Average and the Standard Deviation1. Introduction2. The Average3. The Average and the Histogram4. The Root-Mean-Square5. The Standard Deviation6. Computing the Standard Deviation7. Using a Statistical Calculator8. Review Exercises9. SummaryChapter 5. The Normal Approximation for Data1. The Normal Curve2. Finding Areas under the Normal Curve3. The Nonnal Approximation for Data4. Percentiles5. Percentiles and the Normal Curve6. Change of Scale7. Review Exercises8. SummaryChapter 6. Measurement Error1. Introduction2. Chance Error3. Outliers4. Bias5. Review Exercises6. Special Review Exercises7. Summary and OverviewChapter 7. Plotting Points and Lines1. Reading Points off a Graph2. Plotting Points3. Slope and Intercept4. Plotting Lines5. The Algebraic Equation for a LinePART III. CORRELATION AND REGRESSIONChapter 8. Correlation1. The Scatter Diagram2. The Correlation Coefficient3. The SD Line4. Computing the Correlation Coefficient5. Review Exercises6. SummaryChapter 9. More about Correlation1. Features of the Correlation Coefficient2. Changing SDs3. Some Exceptional Cases4. Ecological Correlations5. Association is Not Causation6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 10. Regression1. Introduction2. The Graph of Averages3. The Regression Method for Individuals4. The Regression Fallacy5. There Are Two Regression Lines6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 11. The R.M.S. Error for Regression1. Introduction2. Computing the R.M.S. Error3. Plotting the Residuals4. Looking at Vertical Strips5. Using the Normal Curve Inside a Vertical Strip6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 12. The Regression Line1. Slope and Intercept2. The Method of Least Squares3. Does the Regression Make Sense?4. Review Exercises5. Summary and OverviewPART IV. PROBABILITYChapter 13. What Are the Chances?1. Introduction2. Conditional Probabilities3. The Multiplication Rule4. Independence5. The Collins Case6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 14. More about Chance1. Listing the Ways2. The Addition Rule3. Two FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)4. The Paradox of the Chevalier De Mere5. Are Real Dice Fair?6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 15. Tbe Binomial Formula1. Introduction2. The Binomial Formula3. Review Exercises4. Special Review Exercises5. Summary and OverviewPART V. CHANCE VARIABILITYChapter 16. The Law of Averages1. What Does the Law of Averages Say?2. Chance Processes3. The Sum of Draws4. Making a Box Model5. Review Exercises6. SummaryChapter 17. The Expected Value and Standard Error1. The Expected Value2. The Standard Error3. Using the Normal Curve4. A Short-Cut5. Classifying and Counting6. Review Exercises7. Postscript8. SummaryChapter 18. The Normal Approximation for Probability Histograms1. Introduction2. Probability Histograms3. Probability Histograms and the Normal Curve4. The Nonnal Approximation5. The Scope of the Normal Approximation6. Conclusion7. Review Exercises8. SummaryPART VI. SAMPLINGChapter 19. Sample Surveys1. Introduction2. The Literary Digest Poll3. The Year the Polls Elected Dewey4. Using Chance in Survey Work5. How Well Do Probability Methods Work?6. A Closer Look at the Gallup Poll7. Telephone Surveys8. Chance Error and Bias9. Review Exercises10. SummaryChapter 20. Chance Errors in Sampling1. Introduction2. The Expected Value and Standard Error3. Using the Normal Curve4. The Correction Factor5. The Gallup Poll6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 21. The Accuracy of Percentages1. Introduction2. Confidence Intervals3. Interpreting a Confidence Interval4. Caveat Emptor5. The Gallup Poll6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 22. Measuring Employment and Unemployment1. Introduction2. The Design of the Current Population Survey3. Carrying out the Survey4. Weighting the Sample5. Standard Errors6. The Quality of the Data7. Bias8. Review Exercises9. SummaryChapter 23. The Accuracy of Averages1. Introduction2. The Sample Average3. Which SE?4. A Reminder5. Review Exercises6. Special Review Exercises7. Summary and OverviewPART VII. CHANCE MODELSChapter 24. A Model for Measurement Error1. Estimating the Accuracy of an Average2. Chance Models3. The Gauss Model4. Conclusion5. Review Exercises6. SummaryChapter 25. Chance Models in Genetics1. How Mendel Discovered Genes2. Did Mendel's Facts Fit His Model?3. The Law of Regression4. An Appreciation of the Model5. Review Exercises6. Summary and OverviewPART VIII. TESTS OF SIGNIFICANCEChapter 26. Tests of Significance1. Introduction2. The Null and the Alternative3. Test Statistics and Significance Levels4. Making a Test of Significance5. Zero-One Boxes6. The t-Test7. Review Exercises8. SummaryChapter 27. More Tests for Averages1. The Standard Error for a Difference2. Comparing Two Sample Averages3. Experiments4. More on Experiments5. When Does the z-Test Apply?6. Review Exercises7. SummaryChapter 28. The Chi-Square Test1. Introduction2. The Structure of the Chi^2-Test3. How Fisher Used the Chi^2-Test4. Testing Independence5. Review Exercises6. SummaryChapter 29. A Closer Look at Tests of Significance1. Was the Result Significant?2. Data Snooping3. Was the Result Important?4. The Role of the Model5. Does the Difference Prove the Point?6. Conclusion7. Review Exercises8. Special Review Exercises9. Summary and OverviewNotesAnswers to ExercisesTablesIndex