statistics 52w high/low (thb) buy

13
July 20, 2021 Materials Thailand THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES (THAILAND) PCL SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Tear Sheet Insert Maria Lapiz [email protected] (66) 2257 0250 Siam Cement (SCC TB) 2Q21E: another bumper quarter Strong 2Q21E, earnings bias positive SCC’ share price performance remains lacklustre as investors remain short- term oriented focusing on the pullback in spreads in June, which was due to holidays, delayed buying and market shift on polyolefins (mainly PE) as demand in India was disrupted by the surge in Covid. These are temporary, in our view. We expect a normal high demand season in 3Q21. Longer term, we look to the sequential upgrades in global GDP estimates, flagged by Global PMI. We also remain upbeat on the demand generated by the major infrastructure rollout in the US to boost demand for HVA pellets and ConsMat supporting prices overall, globally. Maintain BUY and DCF/GGM- derived TP of THB560, (7.37% WACC, 3% growth and 15.1% ROE). Petchem and packaging key contributors We estimate sales grew 33.7% YoY to THB128b and net profit surged 71% YoY to THB16b. If our sales and net profit forecast are met, 1H21 will have achieved 58% and 63% of our FY21E, respectively. The petrochem and packaging divisions remain the key drivers to overall profitability, underpinned by higher prices and volume/efficiency, especially post debottlenecking of the olefins plant. Overall GM improved YoY to 25.5% vs 22.8% in 2Q20 and 24.9% in 1Q21. The ConsMat division remains soft (sales, +4% YoY, profit flat YoY), mainly due to sluggish cement demand while we expect the building materials division to perform better by selling solutions instead of pure materials. Equity income to remain healthy We forecast equity income rose 221.8% YoY to THB5.5b - THB4b from petrochem JVs and THB1.5b from other JVs. If our 2Q21 forecast is met, 1H21 equity income would reach THB11b, 94% of our FY forecast, indicating significant upside. We will revisit our assumption of return of SCC’s investment portfolio post 2Q21 results. Swing factors: dividend income, asset write off, forex There are many potential swing factors. We are looking for THB1.9b other income (mostly dividends) in SCC’s holding company, down 27% YoY. However, there is upside here if its auto JVs resume paying dividends. In addition, the THB has been weakening against major currencies and this could result in non-cash forex-related gains in 2Q21. On the negative side. the ConsMat division could have another asset write-off on its investments in Indonesia as the country continues to be heavily affected by the pandemic. Share Price THB 422.00 12m Price Target THB 560.00 (+33%) Previous Price Target THB 560.00 BUY Company Description Statistics 52w high/low (THB) 3m avg turnover (USDm) Free float (%) Issued shares (m) Market capitalisation Major shareholders: 33.6% 9.9% 4.1% 1,200 36.3 SCC was created by a Royal Decree in 1913 to help develop Thailand & from that it has become the largest industrial conglomerate in the country King Maha Vajiralongkorn Thai NVDR SSO 474.00/321.00 54.2 THB506.4B USD15.4B Price Performance 85 95 105 115 125 135 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Siam Cement - (LHS, THB) Siam Cement / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %) -1M -3M -12M Absolute (%) 0 1 8 Relative to index (%) 4 3 (6) Source: FactSet FYE Dec (THB m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Revenue 437,980 399,939 439,005 506,297 538,366 EBITDA 58,168 66,877 81,708 93,066 102,116 Core net profit 32,860 34,144 49,278 55,875 60,944 Core EPS (THB) 27.38 28.45 41.06 46.56 50.79 Core EPS growth (%) (26.6) 3.9 44.3 13.4 9.1 Net DPS (THB) 14.00 14.00 20.53 23.28 25.39 Core P/E (x) 14.3 13.3 10.3 9.1 8.3 P/BV (x) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 Net dividend yield (%) 3.6 3.7 4.9 5.5 6.0 ROAE (%) 11.8 11.4 14.5 15.0 15.1 ROAA (%) 5.4 4.9 6.7 7.4 7.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 10.3 9.1 8.0 7.4 Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 55.9 40.0 36.7 34.6 32.3 Consensus net profit - - 45,418 43,529 46,217 MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 8.5 28.4 31.9 Terms defined CBM - cement and construction materials PMI - Purchasing Manager’s Index HVA - high value added OIE - Office of Industrial Economics MOC - Ministry of Commerce BMA - Bangkok Metropolitan Area AREA - Agency for Real Estate Affairs BOT - Bank of Thailand SSP - Single Use Plastics GHG - Greenhouse Gas GHGE - Greenhouse Gas Emission ECR - Energy Consumption Reduction CEP - Circular Economy Principle ICP - Internal Carbon Pricing BAU -Business as Usual year RDF - Refuse Derived Fuel TCFD - Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures FSB -Financial Stability Board

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Page 1: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

422.00

July 20, 2021

M

ate

rials

T

hailand

THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES (THAILAND) PCL

SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Tear Sheet Insert

Maria Lapiz [email protected] (66) 2257 0250

Siam Cement (SCC TB)

2Q21E: another bumper quarter

Strong 2Q21E, earnings bias positive

SCC’ share price performance remains lacklustre as investors remain short-

term oriented focusing on the pullback in spreads in June, which was due

to holidays, delayed buying and market shift on polyolefins (mainly PE) as

demand in India was disrupted by the surge in Covid. These are temporary,

in our view. We expect a normal high demand season in 3Q21. Longer term,

we look to the sequential upgrades in global GDP estimates, flagged by

Global PMI. We also remain upbeat on the demand generated by the major

infrastructure rollout in the US to boost demand for HVA pellets and

ConsMat supporting prices overall, globally. Maintain BUY and DCF/GGM-

derived TP of THB560, (7.37% WACC, 3% growth and 15.1% ROE).

Petchem and packaging key contributors

We estimate sales grew 33.7% YoY to THB128b and net profit surged 71%

YoY to THB16b. If our sales and net profit forecast are met, 1H21 will have

achieved 58% and 63% of our FY21E, respectively. The petrochem and

packaging divisions remain the key drivers to overall profitability,

underpinned by higher prices and volume/efficiency, especially post

debottlenecking of the olefins plant. Overall GM improved YoY to 25.5% vs

22.8% in 2Q20 and 24.9% in 1Q21. The ConsMat division remains soft (sales,

+4% YoY, profit flat YoY), mainly due to sluggish cement demand while we

expect the building materials division to perform better by selling

solutions instead of pure materials.

Equity income to remain healthy

We forecast equity income rose 221.8% YoY to THB5.5b - THB4b from

petrochem JVs and THB1.5b from other JVs. If our 2Q21 forecast is met,

1H21 equity income would reach THB11b, 94% of our FY forecast,

indicating significant upside. We will revisit our assumption of return of

SCC’s investment portfolio post 2Q21 results.

Swing factors: dividend income, asset write off, forex

There are many potential swing factors. We are looking for THB1.9b other

income (mostly dividends) in SCC’s holding company, down 27% YoY.

However, there is upside here if its auto JVs resume paying dividends. In

addition, the THB has been weakening against major currencies and this

could result in non-cash forex-related gains in 2Q21. On the negative side.

the ConsMat division could have another asset write-off on its investments

in Indonesia as the country continues to be heavily affected by the

pandemic.

Share Price THB 422.00

12m Price Target THB 560.00 (+33%)

Previous Price Target THB 560.00

BUY

Company Description

Statistics

52w high/low (THB)

3m avg turnover (USDm)

Free float (%)

Issued shares (m)

Market capitalisation

Major shareholders:

33.6%

9.9%

4.1%

1,200

36.3

SCC was created by a Royal Decree in 1913 to help

develop Thailand & from that it has become the

largest industrial conglomerate in the country

King Maha Vajiralongkorn

Thai NVDR

SSO

474.00/321.00

54.2

THB506.4B

USD15.4B

Price Performance

85

95

105

115

125

135

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

Siam Cement - (LHS, THB)

Siam Cement / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)

-1M -3M -12M

Absolute (%) 0 1 8

Relative to index (%) 4 3 (6)

Source: FactSet

FYE Dec (THB m) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenue 437,980 399,939 439,005 506,297 538,366

EBITDA 58,168 66,877 81,708 93,066 102,116

Core net profit 32,860 34,144 49,278 55,875 60,944

Core EPS (THB) 27.38 28.45 41.06 46.56 50.79

Core EPS growth (%) (26.6) 3.9 44.3 13.4 9.1

Net DPS (THB) 14.00 14.00 20.53 23.28 25.39

Core P/E (x) 14.3 13.3 10.3 9.1 8.3

P/BV (x) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2

Net dividend yield (%) 3.6 3.7 4.9 5.5 6.0

ROAE (%) 11.8 11.4 14.5 15.0 15.1

ROAA (%) 5.4 4.9 6.7 7.4 7.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 10.3 9.1 8.0 7.4

Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 55.9 40.0 36.7 34.6 32.3

Consensus net profit - - 45,418 43,529 46,217

MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - 8.5 28.4 31.9

Terms defined CBM - cement and construction materials PMI - Purchasing Manager’s Index HVA - high value added OIE - Office of Industrial Economics MOC - Ministry of Commerce BMA - Bangkok Metropolitan Area AREA - Agency for Real Estate Affairs BOT - Bank of Thailand SSP - Single Use Plastics GHG - Greenhouse Gas GHGE - Greenhouse Gas Emission ECR - Energy Consumption Reduction CEP - Circular Economy Principle ICP - Internal Carbon Pricing BAU -Business as Usual year RDF - Refuse Derived Fuel TCFD - Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures FSB -Financial Stability Board

Page 2: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 2

Siam Cement

Value Proposition

Thailand’s largest materials & industrial conglomerate. It

ranks within the top 3 by market share for every industry that

it has a presence in (cement, petrochems and paper).

SCC creates entry barriers by keeping high capacities that

cost THB50-60b/year in capex. Utilization rates of its

facilities are at nearly 100%.

SCC’s earnings are highly concentrated in the petrochemical

business. Hence, its operating performance is highly

leveraged to a change in global demand/supply dynamics of

key polymer products than domestic-oriented businesses like

cement and building materials.

EBITDA more evenly distributed across divisions

Source: Company

Price Drivers

Historical share price trend

Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng

1. Optimism on petrochem spreads due to lower crude

prices.

2. Correction on concerns of weakening economic activity.

3. Another correction following rising oil price, which leads

to high feedstock cost for petrochem while high supply

leads to weak pass on cost mechanism

4. Anticipating recovery in three segments: petrochems,

CBM and packaging, followed by profit taking in-sync

with the SET.

5. Depressed performance due to resurgence of pandemic

globally casting doubt on the strength of global recovery

Financial Metrics

Profitability of SCC’s two naphtha crackers (1.7mt ethylene)

is vulnerable to spikes in naphtha (in turn linked mainly to

crude price): every USD100/t increase in naphtha cost

depresses net profit by 34%.

SCC’s earnings are also sensitive to the change in H/L/LLDPE

and PP over naphtha spreads. Every USD100/t change in

HDPE-naphtha margin, changes net profit by 7.4% from the

base-case.

In a weak demand scenario CF turns weak and volatile. This

time around this is a concern because of high investment

ahead, greenfield cracker in Vietnam, and leverage and

financial obligations could rise significantly necessitating

reduction in dividend payouts.

EVA spread improving

Source: Bloomberg, MKE-ISR

Swing Factors

Upside

Lower oil price could lead to lower naphtha feedstock

cost and better chemicals profitability.

Delays of start-up of new ethylene/PE capacities in

China/US would lead to better ethylene and PE spread

over naphtha.

Residential property demand recovery should lead to

better domestic cement demand.

Downside

Baht appreciation normally hurts SCC’s profits as it is a

net exporter of cement, paper and petrochemical

products.

Unexpected, deep collapse in petrochemical spreads

will affect SCC’s profits and returns, adversely.

Loss of pricing discipline in Thai construction materials

market – mainly cement – will also negatively impact the

share price.

Petrochemical

46%

Cement/building

material

28%

Paper

22%

Other

4%

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

Siam Cement - (LHS, THB)

Siam Cement / Stock Exchange of Thai Index - (RHS, %)

5.5

(1.9)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

1Q15

1Q16

1Q17

1Q18

1Q19

1Q20

1Q21

ROIC EVA Spread

%

1

2

3

5

4

Page 3: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 3

Siam Cement

[email protected]

Risk Rating & Score¹ 20.9 Medium Risk

Score Momentum² -15.4

Last Updated 25 May 2021

Controversy Score³ (Updated: 19 July 2021)

1-Low

Business Model & Industry Issues

SCC has to grapple with a multitude of issues relating to ESG as it operates in extractive industries such as cement, building

materials, packaging and petrochemicals with a broad based distribution network and a regional presence.

SCC’s ESG began from its commitment to the +2°C global target in the Paris Accord by 2030 and this commitment cascades into

layers of key sustainability goals in the following areas: GHG, Water, Energy, Product Stewardship, Innovation & Technology,

Human Rights, Safety and Customer Experience.

This is a step process; 2025 is the next milestone for most material variables such as GHGE down by 20%, ECR by 13%. Under

ECR, R&D embraces CEP, which has seen 75.68MW of solar power installed to date and a subsequent GHGE reduction of c.48.3K

tonnes of CO2/yr.

As capacity expansion via green and/or brownfield acquisitions is on the cards, SCC has set its ICP at USD18/tonne CO2 as the

criteria for project approval. CEP/ICP will embed sustainability goals into the corporate’s DNA.

Material E issues

CBM is a highly extractive industry and interfaces with local

counterparties. In mining limestone a mountain wall is

maintained to keep in particles and not deface the sides.

Reforestation follows post mining; one quarry already hit its

targeted biodiversity index (three more on the way). Long-term

target is a natural forest zone of 60%.

Firing the refractory is coal intensive. To reduce coal usage

cement plants now have a waste heat generator to capture

excess energy and is augmented with RDF and biogas. This year,

one industrial waste power plant will start operation and it can

process 65k tpa of waste.

End of 2019, cement used 24% of recycled inputs, building

materials 14%, packaging 61%, petrochems only 1%, though this

division runs on 12.3% recycled water, 13.6% solar power.

In 2019, SCC assessed opportunities and risks relating to climate

change and its impact with the Task Force on Climate-Related

Financial Disclosures by FSB UNEP. This in turn will allow SCC to

incorporate the latter’s recommendations to foster sustainable

business practices.

SCC is in the DJSI and also reports to GRI.

Key G metrics and issues

SCC’s 12-member board of directors has six independent

directors, two female directors and three recommended

by the major shareholder. Total compensation in 2019 was

THB82m or 0.25% of reported net profit. Its auditor (2018-

2022) is KPMG Phoomchai, which has been its auditor for

many terms.

In 2020, SCC announced its diversity and inclusion policy

and intention to support gender equality and evaluate

gender discrimination.

Female employees are c.22% of its total and 27% of the

managerial level. During 2015-19, between THB1.2-

2.0b/year was spent on employee training programmes.

Employee engagement had reached 68% in 2019 (target

70% by 2022).

For now, the 11-member top management are all males.

SCC has an active whistleblowing policy to control and

prevent corruption. So far, 29 cases have been investigated

involving compliance laws and violation of internal rules

on code of conduct. The total damage was THB0.67m, and

17 employees were dismissed.

Material S issues

SCC’s human rights practices are in accordance with United

Nations & International Labour Organization’s Declaration on

Fundamental Principles & Rights at Work and its own policy.

In the previous mining licence renewal, SCC met pressures from

NGOs relating to environmental effects of mining. This was

resolved. To prevent recurrence, SCC engages local

communities. Since 2019, 19 communities are now able to

manage their own water resources, and 7,139 monkey cheeks

dams were built to augment water supply. The group achieved

82% community satisfaction index.

The SCG Foundation seeded with THB75b in 1963 is the main

corporate social responsibility vehicle; 5Y spending ranges

THB591-748m covering multiple activities.

Leveraging on its relationship with Oxford University, it brought

together AstraZeneca, Oxford and Siam Bioscience to sign a

letter of intent to produce the AZD1222 Covid-19 vaccine to

supply to Thailand and the region. SCC has been actively

donating medical equipment to hospitals help tackle the

pandemic.

¹Risk Rating & Score - derived by Sustainalytics and assesses the company’s exposure to unmanaged ESG risks. Scores range between 0 - 50 in order of increasing severity with low/high scores & ratings representing negligible/significant risk to the company’s enterprise value, respectively, from ESG-driven financial impacts. ²Score Momentum - indicates changes to the company's score since the last update – a negative integer indicates a company’s improving risk score; a positive integer indicates a deterioration. ³Controversy Score - reported periodically by Sustainalytics in the event of material ESG-related incident(s), with the impact severity scores of these events ranging from Category 0-5 (0 - no reports; 1 - negligible risks; ...; 5 - poses serious risks & indicative of potential structural deficiencies at the company).

Page 4: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 4

Siam Cement

Relevant charts

Fig 1: SCC’s consolidated P&L

Source: Company, MKE-ISR

Fig 2: P&L of SCC’s various divisions

Source: Company, MKE-ISR

Profit and Loss (THB mn) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21E Q/Q chg Y/Y Chg

Sales 105,741 96,010 100,938 97,250 122,066 128,413 5.2% 33.7%

COGS (inc dep'n) (85,782) (74,145) (76,129) (73,892) (91,692) (95,668) 4.3% 29.0%

Gross Profit 19,958 21,865 24,810 23,358 30,374 32,745 7.8% 49.8%

SG&A (13,538) (12,966) (14,542) (15,489) (15,344) (15,844) 3.3% 22.2%

Operating Profit 6,420 8,900 10,268 7,870 15,030 16,901 12.5% 89.9%

Net other income 2,060 2,676 1,341 1,583 1,562 1,984 27.0% -25.9%

Net interest (1,810) (647) (2,024) (1,298) (1,691) (1,591) -5.9% 146.0%

Pretax profit 6,671 10,929 9,585 8,155 14,901 17,294 16.1% 58.3%

Income Tax (611) (1,338) (1,802) (2,059) (2,322) (2,421) 4.3% 81.0%

Associates 1,245 1,705 3,041 3,465 5,698 5,487 -3.7% 221.8%

Minority interest 970 (1,282) (1,330) (1,513) (3,363) (4,285) 27.4% 234.1%

Profit after tax 8,274 10,014 9,493 8,048 14,914 16,075 7.8% 60.5%

Ex ceptional items (1,303) (630) 248 0 0 0

Reported net profit 6,971 9,384 9,741 8,048 14,914 16,075 7.8% 71.3%

EBITDA - operating plus other income 15,251 18,404 18,497 16,342 23,454 25,747 9.8% 39.9%

Performance ratios 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21E 4Q Avg Prev 8Q Avg

Gross margin 18.9 22.8 24.6 24.0 24.9 25.5 24.7 22.2

Operating margin 6.1 9.3 10.2 8.1 12.3 13.2 10.9 8.7

Net margin 7.8 10.4 9.4 8.3 12.2 12.5 10.6 9.1

Sales/av g net op assets 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.2

Op profit/av g net op assets 6.3 8.6 9.7 7.3 13.5 29.8 15.1 10.9

PAT/av g equity 11.6 13.6 12.7 10.3 18.3 38.7 20.0 15.5

Tax rate 9.2 12.2 18.8 25.2 15.6 14.0 18.4 19.1

THB m 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 QoQ YoY

Sales

Consolidate 96,010 100,938 97,250 122,066 126,569 4 32

ConMat 42,506 42,685 40,284 46,185 44,276 (4) 4

Petrochem 34,758 37,748 36,035 51,607 54,187 5 56

Paper 21,636 23,287 23,596 27,253 28,071 3 30

Other 27 30 37 37 35 (5) 30

EBITDA from operations

Consolidate 19,136 18,324 16,763 23,454 25,747 10 35

ConMat 5,721 5,152 3,510 6,507 5,424 (17) (5)

Petrochem 6,843 8,721 8,150 10,858 12,162 12 78

Paper 5,281 3,871 4,211 5,267 5,682 8 8

Other 1,308 836 963 917 2,479 170 90

EBITDA margins (%)

Consolidate 20 18 17 19 20 6 2

ConMat 13 12 9 14 12 (13) (9)

Petrochem 20 23 23 21 22 7 14

Paper 24 17 18 19 20 5 (17)

Net profit

Consolidate 9,384 9,741 8,048 14,914 16,075 8 71

ConMat 1,944 1,894 (194) 2,809 1,950 (31) 0

Petrochem 4,564 5,488 5,837 8,829 10,355 17 127

Paper 1,904 1,335 1,486 2,135 2,588 21 36

Other 983 1,029 1,150 1,736 1,379 (21) 40

Page 5: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 5

Siam Cement

Other relevant charts

Fig 3: SCC1H21E vs 2021 estimates

Source: MKE-ISR

Fig 4: Global GDP outlook remains upbeat, as indicated by Global

PMI; we maintain the view that US not China will be the key swing

factor in global economic activities

Fig 5: On an equal-weight basis of the five currencies, the

THB equivalent of the foreign-denominated revenues

from ASEAN is likely to post strong growth. High forex

gains are indicated

Source: Bloomberg, MKE-ISR Source: Bloomberg, MKE-ISR

Fig 6: Construction areas permitted nationwide shows sluggish activity

… keeping cement prices soft … but prices of other construction material are high

Source: BOT, OIE, MOC, MKE-ISR

THB mn 1H21E 2021E % of FY

Sales 250,479 432,577 58%

EBITDA - deriv ed 49,201 81,708 60%

EBITDA reported* 47,330 81,708 58%

Associated income 11,185 11,892 94%

Recurring net profit 30,989 49,278 63%

Net Profit 30,989 49,278 63%

*Includes div idends from jv s

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jul-

08

Jun-0

9

May-1

0

Apr

-11

Mar-

12

Feb

-13

Jan

-14

Dec-1

4

Nov

-15

Oct

-16

Sep-1

7

Aug-1

8

Jul-

19

Jun-2

0

May-2

1

US Eurozone China

Expansion

Contraction

103.9

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120Ja

n-1

5

Jul-

15

Jan-1

6

Jul-

16

Jan-1

7

Jul-

17

Jan-1

8

Jul-

18

Jan-1

9

Jul-

19

Jan-2

0

Jul-

20

Jan-2

1

-7.1%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-20

Jan

-21

Nationwide % chg, YoY

'000 sqm, 9mma

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-10 Nov-11 Sep-13 Jul-15 May-17 Mar-19 Jan-21

index 2010=100

Jun 21 = 102.9 (-1.1%YoY; 0% MoM)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1Q04 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18 1Q20

index

2Q21 = 113.8 (+9.7%YoY)

Page 6: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 6

Siam Cement

Fig 7: Spreads (excluding HVA lift) remain high despite drop in

PP

…and shipments of petrochem products remain solid

Note: SCC spread is calculated based on market prices Source: Bloomberg, MKE-ISR

Fig 8: Shipments held up well despite long holidays (Golden

Ween and Ramadan)

… and prices/spread also higher than over a year ago

Source: OIE, SCGP, MKE-ISR

Fig 9: Trading cheaply on PE basis relative to its 10Y history … as well as on PBV even as ROE is expected to continue

rising during 2021-2023

Source: SET, MKE-ISR

118.8

120.5

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21

Plastic pellets Ethylene Propylene

2016 = 100

112.3

106.2

70

80

90

100

110

120

1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21

MPI MPI - Paper Shipment - Paper

2016 = 100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Jul-11

Nov-1

1

Mar-

12

Jul-12

Nov-1

2

Mar-

13

Jul-13

Nov-1

3

Mar-

14

Jul-14

Nov-1

4

Mar-

15

Jul-15

Nov-1

5

Mar-

16

Jul-16

Nov-1

6

Mar-

17

Jul-17

Nov-1

7

Mar-

18

Jul-18

Nov-1

8

Mar-

19

Jul-19

Nov-1

9

Mar-

20

Jul-20

Nov-2

0

Mar-

21

Jul-21

(X)

+1 S.D. = PE 15.6x

-1 S.D. = PE 9.8x

+2 S.D. = PE 18.5x

10Y avg at 12.7x

-3 S.D. = PE 4.0x

-2 S.D. = PE 6.9x

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jul-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Jul-21

(X)

+1 S.D. = 3.0x

+2 S.D. = 3.7x

-1 S.D. = 1.8x

10Y avg at 2.4x

-3S.D. = 0.5x

-2 S.D. = 1.1x

Page 7: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 7

Siam Cement

FYE 31 Dec FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Key Metrics

P/E (reported) (x) 15.8 12.4 10.3 9.1 8.3

Core P/E (x) 14.3 13.3 10.3 9.1 8.3

P/BV (x) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2

P/NTA (x) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2

Net dividend yield (%) 3.6 3.7 4.9 5.5 6.0

FCF yield (%) nm 0.3 nm 2.1 3.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 12.1 10.3 9.1 8.0 7.4

EV/EBIT (x) 20.5 17.4 14.1 12.6 11.4

INCOME STATEMENT (THB m)

Revenue 437,979.9 399,939.2 439,005.5 506,296.7 538,365.6

EBITDA 58,168.2 66,876.9 81,708.4 93,066.4 102,115.9

Depreciation (23,931.5) (27,377.3) (29,176.7) (33,789.0) (36,289.0)

Amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBIT 34,236.7 39,499.6 52,531.7 59,277.4 65,826.9

Net interest income /(exp) (5,404.7) (5,965.8) (5,622.1) (5,252.7) (5,181.6)

Associates & JV 11,632.1 9,455.8 11,891.6 12,180.6 12,476.6

Exceptionals (254.8) 119.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other pretax income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Pretax profit 40,209.3 43,108.7 58,801.2 66,205.2 73,121.9

Income tax (6,166.7) (5,808.5) (7,036.4) (8,103.7) (9,096.8)

Minorities (1,182.2) (3,156.3) (2,486.9) (2,226.2) (3,081.2)

Discontinued operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reported net profit 32,860.3 34,143.9 49,277.9 55,875.4 60,943.9

Core net profit 32,860.3 34,143.9 49,277.9 55,875.4 60,943.9

BALANCE SHEET (THB m)

Cash & Short Term Investments 44,221.8 102,980.9 44,806.6 42,098.7 27,433.3

Accounts receivable 62,165.8 54,842.2 54,842.2 59,968.0 70,863.6

Inventory 56,411.3 54,654.0 59,170.3 84,047.0 98,922.2

Property, Plant & Equip (net) 305,985.8 363,425.1 394,248.3 410,459.3 424,170.3

Intangible assets 34,301.3 34,030.7 34,030.7 34,030.7 34,030.7

Investment in Associates & JVs 110,458.6 118,916.3 121,806.1 124,766.0 127,797.8

Other assets 21,188.7 20,531.6 18,781.1 17,327.5 15,911.3

Total assets 634,733.2 749,380.9 727,685.2 772,697.3 799,129.2

ST interest bearing debt 72,052.0 90,927.6 50,000.0 50,000.0 50,000.0

Accounts payable 55,886.9 65,273.1 62,285.6 72,968.2 76,898.9

LT interest bearing debt 155,361.4 170,436.2 154,000.0 154,000.0 140,000.0

Other liabilities 23,690.0 26,618.0 27,122.0 27,989.0 28,403.0

Total Liabilities 306,990.1 353,254.8 293,407.4 304,956.8 295,301.4

Shareholders Equity 280,215.4 320,972.2 356,637.1 387,873.5 420,879.7

Minority Interest 47,527.7 75,153.9 77,640.7 79,866.9 82,948.1

Total shareholder equity 327,743.1 396,126.0 434,277.9 467,740.4 503,827.8

Total liabilities and equity 634,733.2 749,380.9 727,685.2 772,697.3 799,129.2

CASH FLOW (THB m)

Pretax profit 40,209.3 43,108.7 58,801.2 66,205.2 73,121.9

Depreciation & amortisation 23,931.5 27,377.3 29,176.7 33,789.0 36,289.0

Adj net interest (income)/exp (7,498.6) (10,238.5) (8,806.8) (5,752.7) (5,181.6)

Change in working capital 12,511.5 20,167.9 (7,148.7) (18,708.8) (21,548.3)

Cash taxes paid (6,166.7) (5,808.5) (7,036.4) (8,103.7) (9,096.8)

Other operating cash flow (1,777.0) (1,957.2) (1,180.5) (1,083.5) (1,062.7)

Cash flow from operations 57,014.3 70,997.7 58,716.5 60,501.2 66,289.2

Capex (60,642.0) (69,595.0) (60,000.0) (50,000.0) (50,000.0)

Free cash flow (3,627.7) 1,402.7 (1,283.5) 10,501.2 16,289.2

Dividends paid (19,800.0) (15,000.0) (16,800.0) (24,639.0) (27,937.7)

Equity raised / (purchased) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Change in Debt 21,965.0 33,950.4 (57,363.8) 0.0 (14,000.0)

Other invest/financing cash flow (4,696.8) 38,406.0 17,272.9 11,429.9 10,983.1

Effect of exch rate changes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net cash flow (6,159.4) 58,759.2 (58,174.4) (2,707.9) (14,665.4)

Page 8: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

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Siam Cement

FYE 31 Dec FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E

Key Ratios

Growth ratios (%)

Revenue growth (8.5) (8.7) 9.8 15.3 6.3

EBITDA growth (16.7) 15.0 22.2 13.9 9.7

EBIT growth (25.7) 15.4 33.0 12.8 11.0

Pretax growth (32.9) 7.2 36.4 12.6 10.4

Reported net profit growth (26.6) 3.9 44.3 13.4 9.1

Core net profit growth (26.6) 3.9 44.3 13.4 9.1

Profitability ratios (%)

EBITDA margin 13.3 16.7 18.6 18.4 19.0

EBIT margin 7.8 9.9 12.0 11.7 12.2

Pretax profit margin 9.2 10.8 13.4 13.1 13.6

Payout ratio 51.1 49.2 50.0 50.0 50.0

DuPont analysis

Net profit margin (%) 7.5 8.5 11.2 11.0 11.3

Revenue/Assets (x) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7

Assets/Equity (x) 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9

ROAE (%) 11.8 11.4 14.5 15.0 15.1

ROAA (%) 5.4 4.9 6.7 7.4 7.8

Liquidity & Efficiency

Cash conversion cycle 58.1 46.8 37.6 44.5 58.1

Days receivable outstanding 51.8 52.7 45.0 40.8 43.7

Days inventory outstanding 59.3 64.5 61.1 65.7 79.6

Days payables outstanding 53.1 70.4 68.5 62.1 65.2

Dividend cover (x) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5

Leverage & Expense Analysis

Asset/Liability (x) 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7

Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 55.9 40.0 36.7 34.6 32.3

Net gearing (%) (excl. perps) 55.9 40.0 36.7 34.6 32.3

Net interest cover (x) 6.3 6.6 9.3 11.3 12.7

Debt/EBITDA (x) 3.9 3.9 2.5 2.2 1.9

Capex/revenue (%) 13.8 17.4 13.7 9.9 9.3

Net debt/ (net cash) 183,191.6 158,382.9 159,193.4 161,901.3 162,566.7

Source: Company; Maybank

Page 9: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

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Research Offices

ECONOMICS

Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]

CHUA Hak Bin Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (65) 6231 5830 [email protected]

LEE Ju Ye Singapore | Thailand | Indonesia (65) 6231 5844 [email protected]

Linda LIU Singapore | Vietnam | Cambodia | Myanmar | Laos (65) 6231 5847 [email protected]

Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI (603) 2082 6818 [email protected]

Ramesh LANKANATHAN (603) 2297 8685 [email protected]

FX

Saktiandi SUPAAT Head of FX Research (65) 6320 1379 [email protected]

Christopher WONG (65) 6320 1347 [email protected]

TAN Yanxi (65) 6320 1378 [email protected]

Fiona LIM (65) 6320 1374 [email protected]

STRATEGY

Anand PATHMAKANTHAN

ASEAN (603) 2297 8783 [email protected]

FIXED INCOME

Winson PHOON, ACA (65) 6340 1079 [email protected]

SE THO Mun Yi (603) 2074 7606 [email protected]

REGIONAL EQUITIES

Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Regional Equity Research (603) 2297 8783 [email protected]

WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of ASEAN Equity Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]

ONG Seng Yeow Research, Technology & Innovation (65) 6231 5839 [email protected]

MALAYSIA

Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Research (603) 2297 8783 [email protected] • Strategy

WONG Chew Hann (603) 2297 8686

[email protected] • Non-Bank Financials (stock exchange) • Construction & Infrastructure

Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional • Automotive

ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional

YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media • Aviation • Non-Bank Financials

TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos

WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property • Glove

Kevin WONG (603) 2082 6824 [email protected] • REITs • Technology

Jade TAM (603) 2297 8687 [email protected] • Consumer Staples & Discretionary

Fahmi FARID (603) 2297 8676 [email protected] • Software

TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2082 6858 [email protected]

Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe (603) 2297 8694 [email protected] • Chartist

Amirah AZMI (603) 2082 8769 [email protected] • Retail Research

INDIA

Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 4223 2632 [email protected] • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement

Neerav DALAL (91) 22 4223 2606 [email protected] • Software Technology • Telcos

Vikram RAMALINGAM (91) 22 4223 2607 [email protected] • Automobile • Media

SINGAPORE

Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research (65) 6231 5840 [email protected] • Banking & Finance - Regional • Consumer

CHUA Su Tye (65) 6231 5842 [email protected] • REITs - Regional

LAI Gene Lih, CFA (65) 6231 5832 [email protected] • Technology • Healthcare

Kareen CHAN (65) 6231 5926 [email protected] • Transport • Telcos • Consumer

Eric ONG (65) 6231 5924 [email protected] • SMIDs

Matthew SHIM (65) 6231 5929 [email protected]

• Retail Research

PHILIPPINES

Jacqui de JESUS Head of Research (63) 2 8849 8840 [email protected] • Strategy • Conglomerates

Rachelleen RODRIGUEZ, CFA (63) 2 8849 8843 [email protected] • Banking & Finance • Transport • Telcos

Benedict CLEMENTE (63) 2 8849 8846 [email protected] • Utilities

Daphne SZE (63) 2 8849 8847 [email protected] • Consumer

VIETNAM

Quan Trong Thanh Head of Research (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184 [email protected] • Banks

Hoang Huy, CFA (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Technology

Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas

Nguyen Thi Sony Tra Mi (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084 [email protected] • Consumer

Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8085 [email protected] • Utilities • Property

Tran Thi Thu Thao (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8180 [email protected] • Industrials

Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Head of Retail Research (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081 [email protected] • Retail Research

Nguyen Thanh Lam (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8086 [email protected] • Technical Analysis

INDONESIA

Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (62) 21 8066 8680 [email protected] • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement • Autos • Consumer • Utility

Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 8066 8689 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

Willy GOUTAMA (62) 21 8066 8500 [email protected] • Consumer

Farah OKTAVIANI (62) 21 8066 8691 [email protected] • Construction

THAILAND

Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research

Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services

Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

Kaushal LADHA, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392 [email protected] • Oil & Gas – Regional • Petrochemicals - Regional • Utilities

Vanida GEISLER, CPA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] • Property • REITs

Yuwanee PROMMAPORN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 Yuwanee.P @maybank-ke.co.th • Services • Healthcare

Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530 [email protected]

Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel

Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Commerce

Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap

Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401 [email protected] • Media • Electronics

Wijit ARAYAPISIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategist

Theerasate PROMPONG

(66) 2658 5000 ext 1400 [email protected] • Equity Portfolio Strategist

Apiwat TAVESIRIVATE (66) 2658 5000 ext 1310 [email protected] • Chartist and TFEX

Page 10: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 10

Siam Cement

APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES

DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ fr om fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

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MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solic it business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report to the extent permitted by law.

This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for t he actions of third parties in this respect.

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this repor t.

Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.

Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.

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Due to different characteristics, objectives and strategies of institutional and retail investors, the research products of MBKET Institutional and Retail Research departments may differ in either recommendation or target price, or both. MBKET reserves the rights to disseminate MBKET Retail Research reports to institutional investors who have requested to receive it. If you are an authorised recipient, you hereby tacitly acknowledge that the research reports from MBKET Retail Research are first produced in Thai and there is a time lag in the release of the translated English version.

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the s urvey may be changed after that date. MBKET does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Thaipat Institute made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective o f Thaipat Institute that is a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MBKET does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.

US This third-party research report is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security mentioned within must do so with: Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc. 400 Park Avenue, 11th Floor, New York, New York 10022, 1-(212) 688-8886 and not with, the issuer of this report.

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Siam Cement

Disclosure of Interest

Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 20 July 2021, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: As of 20 July 2021, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. India: As of 20 July 2021, and at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report, KESI, authoring analyst or their associate / relative does not hold any financial interest or any actual or beneficial ownership in any shares or having any conflict of interest in the subject companies except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.

In the past twelve months KESI and authoring analyst or their associate did not receive any compensation or other benefits fr om the subject companies or third party in connection with the research report on any account what so ever except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.

MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.

OTHERS

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Reminder

Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or refe rence issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.

UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Conduct Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

DISCLOSURES

Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938- H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This report is distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 198700034E) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities (“PTMKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority (Indonesia). Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam. Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) (Reg. No. INZ000010538). KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) and as Research Analyst (Reg No: INH000000057) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Page 12: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 12

Siam Cement

Historical recommendations and target price: Siam Cement (SCC TB)

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system

BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)

HOLD Return is expected to be between 0% to 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)

SELL Return is expected to be below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends)

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21

Siam Cement

20 Jul Hold : 449.0

2 May Hold : 440.0

1 Nov Buy : 478.0

13 Apr Buy : 430.0

31 May Buy : 560.0

Page 13: Statistics 52w high/low (THB) BUY

July 20, 2021 13

Siam Cement

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