statistics and forecast 2021 q2
TRANSCRIPT
Statistics and forecast 2021 – Q2
This is SWEA:s quarterly statistics and forecast for the Swedish wind
power market. The figures are produced with data from turbine
manufacturers and other market participants.
SWEA, Swedish Wind Energy Association - Svensk Vindenergi
2021-07-01
New turbine contracts* (firm and binding)
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
New contracts from Q2 will add another 234 MW in SE3 and SE4, corresponding to about 0,8 TWh clean electricity or 2,5 B SEK investment.
In total; 1,2 GW was contracted during the first half of 2021, compared with the average of 2 GW annualy for the last years.
189
25 51 49 63
16066
273
2
635
25
1 429
220
413 403
675
1 225
114
686 661
410
102165
725
979
234
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
Q1 2
01
5
Q2 2
01
5
Q3 2
01
5
Q4 2
01
5
Q1 2
01
6
Q2 2
01
6
Q3 2
01
6
Q4 2
01
6
Q1 2
01
7
Q2 2
01
7
Q3 2
01
7
Q4 2
01
7
Q1 2
01
8
Q2 2
01
8
Q3 2
01
8
Q4 2
01
8
Q1 2
01
9
Q2 2
01
9
Q3 2
01
9
Q4 2
01
9
Q1 2
02
0
Q2 2
02
0
Q3 2
02
0
Q4 2
02
0
Q1 2
02
1
Q2 2
02
1
New turbine contracts [MW] Mean value last 12 month
MW
Turbine contracts [MW] and share of orders signed per
quarter (2016-2021)
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
The second and third quarter does on average represent less than 1/3 of annual orders. Most orders, 42 % are finalized and signed in Q4.
The first half of the year did on average represent 43 %* of annual orders, as a mean value over the last 5 years.
483; 27%
276; 16%
269; 15%
752; 42%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Turbines: 4967 Pcs
Capacity: 12,8 GW
Estimated actual production Wind power 2021:*** 29,4 TWh
Annual normal production 35,2 TWh
Wind Power development 2021
* Annual normal production is the calculated
annual production if Wind Index is 100 and all
capacity are on line during a full year.
** Capacity added during a year typically
contributes with 30-40% of annual normal
production during first operational year. Turbines
might come online late in the year and the
summer is in general less windy.
*** Estimated actual production is depending on
when capacity is scheduled online and how windy
the remaining of the year is. Year 2020 had a
extraordinary high Wind Index of 114 and actual
production of 27,5 TWh.
Estimations for the reminder of 2021 are based
on the assumption that new projects comes on
line as on side ”Comissioning” and normal wind
conditions.
Capacity: 10,0 GW
Turbines: 4359 pcs
Annual normal production*: 26,3 TWh
Wind index full year 2020: 114
Actual production 2020: 27,5 TWh
Total: 2,72 GW
Turbines: 608 pcs
Annual normal production from added turbines: 8,8 TWh
1:st year contribution from turbines added 2021**: 3,1 TWh
1:st year utilisation of added capacity**: 36 %
Wind index H1 2021 93
Total by the beginning of 2021
Added capacity in 2021
Total by the end of 2021 - forecast
Short term forecast, 2021-07-01The growth is continuing and reaching its highest point 2021 with 2,7 GW annual addition. Towards 2024 the ackumulated installed
wind power is likely reaching above 17 GW, with normal year production reaching almost 50 TWh, but the number of installed turbines
will remain below 6000 - as every turbine has an ever higher yield.
[TWh]
[GW]
* Figures based on reported firm and binding contracts from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market. This scenario is the
official short term forecast of SWEA and updated quarterly. The long term forecast (2040) is found on the homepage of SWEA
11,2
16,3 15,5
17,616,6
19,8
27,529,4
38,3
45,0
49,2
5,43 6,03 6,49 6,69 7,409,06
10,05
12,77
15,2416,54
17,64
0
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7000
8000
9000
10000
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Annualproduction [TWh]
Cumulativecapacity [MW]
Cumulativeinstalled windturbines [n]
pcs
Comissioning [MW] – record high scheduled comission for 2021 and 2022
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
** https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/25/2253011/0/sv/Eolus-och-Hydro-REIN-f%C3%B6rv%C3%A4rvar-
tillsammans-ett-fullt-tillst%C3%A5ndsgivet-svenskt-vindkraftsprojekt-om-260-MW.html
Time plan according to turbine manufacturers for wind power installations during year n [MW]*.
Delays/ cancellations in projects are influencing scheduled commissioning, but planned installations during 2021 and 2022 are record high
and will put total value chains on test and drive futher innovation. Further delays are considered likely.
2020 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 (Tot) 2022 2023 2024
988 297 584 570 1268 2719 2205 382 405
0 +96 -95 ** +0Difference since last quarter:
Bidding area break down of scheduled comissioning [MW]SE2 remains dominant in 2021 and 2022. For deliveries in 2023, SE3 and SE4 is in the lead, although volumes are still at low level.
SE1; 27%
SE2; 36%
SE3; 29%
SE4; 8%
Estimated Bidding-zone-area of total land area in Sweden [% of 450 000 km2]
1838
3849
2780
1581
492
1660
246
321
719
734
483
269
4
0
292
86
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4
Added 2023 (signed)
Added 2022 (signed)
Added 2021 (ongoingconstruction)
In operation end of2020
Capacity [GW], Energy [TWh] and Investment [BSEK] additions per price area 2021-2023
* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market
Energy and capacity additions [GW and TWh] are still dominated by SE2 but all new orders in Q2 2021 are made in
SE3 and SE4. Investment volumes are calculated using the key figure of 3,5 BSEK/TWh
1,22 2,39
1,02 0,68
3,89
7,66
3,27 2,16
13,61
26,82
11,44
7,57
-
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4
Contracted deliveries [GW] for 2021-2023per price area
Indication of eqvivalent energy production[TWh]
Eqvivalent Billion SEK investment
Market shares for OEMs on Swedish market:The market is characterized by high competition, with 5 major technology suppliers (OEMs) for turbine contracts: Enercon (Ger), Nordex (Ger),
General Electric (USA), Siemens Gamesa (Ger/Spa) and Vestas (Dk). Swedish subcontractors are common, both for the turbines and civil works.
Figure below is without labels, to show a mercant market with high degree of innovation and product development.
957; 20%
1086,2; 22%
1504,8; 31%
613,9; 13%
668,4; 14%
Growth share of orders in the Nordic+Baltic countries
2020-2022 [GW]
* Figures from the wind energy associations in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland
Sweden is by far the biggest market in the Nordic+Baltic region, with an annual added capacity at about 2 GW or 52 % of signed known
comissioning. The Finish market is second at about 1 GW annualy, and growing fast.
5,23 ; 52%
1,36 ; 14%
1,77 ; 18%
1,02 ; 10%
- ; 0%
0,06 ; 1% 0,21 ; 2% 0,31 ; 3%
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
Estonia
Latvia
Lituania
Poland
Wind power production forcast – all casesProduction is increasing to between 44 TWh (low) and 54 TWh (high) normal year production in 2024. This places wind power as the
second largest power supplier in Base and High scenarios, given that nuclear and hydro power remains at present levels.
The apparent trend break, and upwards skip in the curve at 2020, is due to very high winds.
TWh
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60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
High case
Low case
Base case
Evaluation of SWEA:s previous forecasts (base case)
0,0
5,0
10,0
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20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Pro
du
ctio
n, T
Wh
Actual
Actual (normalyear)
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Q4 2020
Graph shows previous forecasts (dots) as well as actual real production and actual normal annual production (line). SWEA’s previous forcasts shows a solid track record.
Follow up – installed capacity [MW]Graph shows previous forecasts (dots) and actual installed wind power capacity (line). Earlier forecasts have proven to be very close
to the real development.
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
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10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Ca
pa
city,
MW
Actual
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
Q4 2014
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
Q4 2019
Q4 2020
• The statistics are mailny based on sales figures reported by the turbine manufacturers and project figures from
project developers combined with official scources.
• The forecasts are based on the above figures combined with estimates regarding future market conditions. It
may differ since last quarter and yearly production figures are based on the assumption that 50% of the capacity
added one year is available for production.
– Base case: Refer to the short term forecast. It is based on the estimation that all firm and binding turbine contracts yet reported are realised
together with some new projects. That is our assessment of the most realistic scenario and is the official forecast.
– Low case: Assumes only projects where turbine contracts (firm and binding) have been signed will be realized. In this scenario no further
investment decisions are made. Thus, this scenario defines the lower limit of wind power growth in Sweden.
– High case: Projects with turbine contracts (firm and binding) are realized and on top of that an estimation that most projects considered favorable
are realized.
The figures and forecast