statistics at forest research geoff morgan. forestry commission formed in 1919 as a response to the...
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Statistics at Forest Research
Geoff Morgan
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Forestry Commission
• Formed in 1919 as a response to the shortage of timber caused by the war.
• Manages about 1m hectares of woodland (Forest Enterprise)
• Awards grants and gives out licences (conservancies)
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Forest Research
• Research agency of the Forestry Commission
• Two main sites– Alice Holt, near Farnham– Northern Research Station, near Edinburgh– about 12 field stations– 280 staff
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FR Divisions
• Tree Health (Pathology and Entomology)
• Ecology
• Forest Management
• Environmental and Human Sciences
• Biometrics, Surveys and Statistics
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Some key problems• Plant diseases (e.g., Phytophthora ramorum)
• Insect pests (e.g., Hylobius)
• Natural regeneration/direct seeding
• Grey squirrels and deer
• Monitoring and surveying
• Landscape ecology
• Bio-diversity
• Climate change
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Pine Weevil
Hylobius abietis
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• Adult females lay eggs in bark of stumps
• Adults emerge 1-2 years later
• Attack newly planted trees
• Can weevil be controlled without using pesticides?
The problem
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Hylobius experiments
• Size of eggs
• Shallow/deep feeding
• Time to flight
• How to estimate weevil numbers
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Seedling survival
• Is natural regeneration of Corsican Pine possible?
• Are sufficient viable seeds produced?
• What conditions lead to successful germination?
• Do the seedlings survive?
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Seed Predation by mice
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The experiments
• Do mice have preference for different seed types?
• Do different conditions discourage predation?
• Use of GLM/GLMMs
• More general models via MCMC approach
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Growth of young trees
• Experiments/studies measure tree height and diameter at regular intervals
• Examining the effects of – weeding treatments– vegetation– pruning
• Use of end point analysis repeated measures or growthcurves?
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Some statistical problems
• How many observations?
• Plot sizes - how many trees is optimal?
• Blocks - shapes and sizes
• Random effects/error strata
• Multivariate approaches
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Working with scientists An evolutionary relationship
• Software gets easier– Excel– GenStat
• Statistics gets harder
• Servant to team member
• Quality Assurance
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In summary
• Diverse
• Frustrating
• Challenging
• All in a wonderful setting!
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