statpak march 2020 washington, dc…washington, dc’s real estate market – a significant increase...

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Washington, DC StatPak -

MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR FEBRUARY 2020

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS®). “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

CONTRACTS Contract activity in February 2020 was up 18.6% from February 2019 and was up in all of the six price categories. Through the first two months of the year contract activity is up 18.9%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 48 days in February 2020, down from 50 days in February of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in February compared to the year prior. During the past 15 years, the Index has been as high as 83% (May 2005) and as low as 30% (December 2008). In February 2020, the Urgency Index was 65.1%, up from 61.1% in February 2019. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of February was down 3.1% compared to the end of February 2019. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 7.5% compared to February 2019. The increase in contract activity more than offset the increase in listings lowering overall supply to 1.3 months from 1.6 months at the end of February 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of February stood at 3.29%, more than a full percentage point lower than this time last year, and almost a quarter point lower than last month at the end of January 2020. That 3.29% rate is the lowest in at least 50 years. Since the end of February, rates have started back up again. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 43% higher than a decade ago in February 2010 – but the median price is 76% higher. Despite rising home prices, lower interest rates have dropped the payment 12.2% compared to this time last year. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,582) was lower in February than the median rented price ($2,625). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET That “up” arrow should really be followed by a question mark. Washington, DC’s real estate market continued its run as the region’s strongest in February – a significant increase in contract activity, absorption rates in most price categories that are well into “seller’s market” range and exceptionally low supply. The question mark, of course, is because it is virtually impossible to predict the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It might be bumpy in the short run, but we’re optimistic – this is a resilient market in a resilient country!

WASHINGTON, DC MARCH 2020 STATPAK

McEnearney.com


MONTHLY SUMMARY FEBRUARY 2019 vs. FEBRUARY 2020

February February %WASHINGTON, DC 2019 2020 Change

Number of Sales 505 629 24.6%Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 1,187 1,150 -3.1%Number of New Listings 908 976 7.5%Number of New Contracts 737 874 18.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 50 48 -4.0%Average Sales Price $697,203 $698,166 0.1%Average Seller Subsidy $3,231 $2,875 -11.0%Urgency Index 61.1% 65.1% 6.5%Months' Supply 1.6 1.3 -18.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Sales 614 757 23.3%Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 1,516 1,295 -14.6%Number of New Listings 1,025 1,195 16.6%Number of New Contracts 898 1,060 18.0%Days on Market - New Contracts 61 43 -29.5%Average Sales Price $524,072 $521,857 -0.4%Average Seller Subsidy $4,171 $3,436 -17.6%Urgency Index 58.2% 69.0% 18.6%Months' Supply 1.7 1.2 -27.6%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Sales 616 671 8.9%Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 1,619 1,126 -30.5%Number of New Listings 1,012 1,018 0.6%Number of New Contracts 1,020 1,053 3.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 62 49 -21.0%Average Sales Price $290,984 $317,396 9.1%Average Seller Subsidy $5,784 $6,178 6.8%Urgency Index 45.5% 60.9% 33.8%Months' Supply 1.6 1.1 -32.6%

NORTHERN VIRGINIANumber of Sales 1,151 1,202 4.4%Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 1,845 1,661 -10.0%Number of New Listings 1,975 2,197 11.2%Number of New Contracts 1,585 1,814 14.4%Days on Market - New Contracts 31 26 -16.1%Average Sales Price $574,641 $649,657 13.1%Average Seller Subsidy $2,614 $2,001 -23.5%Urgency Index 76.5% 83.6% 9.3%Months' Supply 1.2 0.9 -21.3%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Sales 295 329 11.5%Fully Available Inventory on 2/28 or 2/29 754 636 -15.6%Number of New Listings 701 676 -3.6%Number of New Contracts 494 548 10.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 36 31 -13.9%Average Sales Price $518,698 $552,090 6.4%Average Seller Subsidy $3,037 $2,689 -11.5%Urgency Index 73.9% 82.1% 11.1%Months' Supply 1.5 1.2 -24.0%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend


YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-Feb Jan-Feb %WASHINGTON, DC 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 1,022 1,196 17.0%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,205 1,193 -1.0%Number of New Listings 1,802 2,014 11.8%Number of New Contracts 1,378 1,639 18.9%Days on Market - New Contracts 53 48 -10.2%Average Sales Price $698,123 $713,063 2.1%Average Seller Subsidy $2,938 $2,971 1.1%Average Urgency Index 56.2% 61.1% 8.7%Average Months' Supply 1.7 1.5 -16.8%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 1,152 1,430 24.1%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,532 1,282 -16.3%Number of New Listings 2,002 2,414 20.6%Number of New Contracts 1,683 1,977 17.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 63 49 -22.9%Average Sales Price $522,214 $545,522 4.5%Average Seller Subsidy $4,149 $3,961 -4.5%Average Urgency Index 52.8% 61.5% 16.5%Average Months' Supply 1.8 1.3 -28.8%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 1,207 1,342 11.2%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,700 1,196 -29.6%Number of New Listings 2,106 2,236 6.2%Number of New Contracts 1,996 1,966 -1.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 61 49 -18.9%Average Sales Price $294,010 $325,439 10.7%Average Seller Subsidy $5,676 $6,237 9.9%Average Urgency Index 45.5% 57.1% 25.5%Average Months' Supply 1.7 1.2 -28.6%

NORTHERN VIRGINIANumber of Closed Sales 2,282 2,270 -0.5%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,794 1,547 -13.8%Number of New Listings 3,522 3,804 8.0%Number of New Contracts 2,916 3,183 9.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 37 33 -9.9%Average Sales Price $570,296 $626,768 9.9%Average Seller Subsidy $2,751 $2,370 -13.9%Average Urgency Index 69.6% 76.8% 10.4%Average Months' Supply 1.2 1.0 -21.0%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 584 621 6.3%Average Month-End Available Inventory 721 616 -14.6%Number of New Listings 1,232 1,222 -0.8%Number of New Contracts 895 954 6.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 43 39 -9.5%Average Sales Price $526,712 $550,053 4.4%Average Seller Subsidy $3,290 $2,795 -15.0%Average Urgency Index 67.6% 76.3% 12.9%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.3 -19.8%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Year-to-Date


WASHINGTON, DC – Detail Pages

30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current

MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at

the end of February averaged 3.29%, compared to 4.35% at the end of February 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 3.18% at the end of February 2019, which is down from 3.84% at the end of February 2019.

BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest

payment supported a loan of $228,621 at the end of February, which is $27,742 more than February 2019, and $43,815 more than February 2009.

• In February 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $1,809 to purchase a median-priced home. Today it takes a payment of $2,582 to buy a median-priced home. That’s a 43% increase - but the median price is 76% higher.

AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in

February 2020 was $698,166 a slight increase of 0.1% from the February 2019 average price of $697,203.

• DC has the highest average and median sales prices in the region by more than $100,000.

• Remember that the change in the average sales price – up or down – doesn’t mean that individual home prices are impacted the same way.

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGES SALE PRICE Washington, DC – 2012-Current

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URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Washington, DC – 2016-Current

URGENCY INDEX Washington, DC – February 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – February 2020

URGENCY INDEX - February • In the past 12 years, the February

Urgency Index has been as high as 67.9% and as low as 39.5%.

• The average February Urgency Index during the past 12 years is 59.5% – which is lower than where it is now in DC.

• Contract activity is up 18.6% from last February – and the Urgency Index increased from 61.1% to 65.1%.

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average February Urgency

Index during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 57.5% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 73.0% for all five jurisdictions.

• DC came in fourth this month. As noted above, it is higher than its 12-year average.

URGENCY INDEX – 2015-Current • This chart compares the number

of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it may appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.

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NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • As noted on page 2, the number

of new contracts ratified in February 2020 was up 18.6% from February 2019. There were increases for all price categories.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is up 18.9%.

• 23.0% of all homes going under contract in February had at least one price reduction. Last February it was 25.6%.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on

the market at the end of February 2020 was 1.3 months, down from 1.6 months at the end of February 2019.

• DC has the most balanced supply in the region across all but the highest price category.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the available

inventory for February 2020 was down 3.1% from February 2019 and inventory increased for three price categories.

• 28.3% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. In February 2019, 28.6% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Washington, DC – February 28, 2019 vs. February 29, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY Washington, DC – End of February 2019 vs. End of February 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Washington, DC – February 2019 vs. February 2020 by Price Range

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# of New Contracts

February 2020

February 2019


AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on

the market for all homes receiving contracts in February 2020 was 48 days, which was down 4.0% from 50 days last February.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Washington, DC – February 2019 vs. February 2020 – New Contracts

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 976 new listings that

came on the market in February 2020, a 7.5% increase from the 908 in February 2019.

• Note how consistent the gap between available inventory (green line) and contract activity (red line) has been over the 5+ years covered by this chart. That’s indicative of a very solid market over a long period of time.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • Initial pricing strategy is critical

to the listing process, regardless of market conditions. The longer a home sits on the market, the deeper the discount to its original list price will likely be.

• Homes settling in February 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 2.05% above list. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 7.62% below the original price.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, NEW CONTRACTS, AND ACTIVE LISTINGS

Washington, DC – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Washington, DC – February 2019 vs. February

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# of Days on Market

February 2020

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Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP - LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market increased 8.5% compared to February 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of February 29, 2020 was 6.1% more than the same time in 2019.

LISTINGS

CONDO/CO-OP - CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts increased 17.3% in February 2020 compared to February 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is up 20.3% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of condos and

co-ops settling in February 2020 increased 28.6% compared to February 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 13.0%.

• The average price was up 9.3% compared to February 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average price is up 12.5%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-opListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 75 71 -5.3% 98 109 11.2%$300,000 - $499,999 152 163 7.2% 157 149 -5.1%$500,000 - $749,999 144 157 9.0% 160 177 10.6%$750,000 - $999,999 66 80 21.2% 84 101 20.2%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 28 31 10.7% 47 47 0.0%$1,500,000 & higher 18 22 22.2% 61 61 0.0%Grand Total: 483 524 8.5% 607 644 6.1%

New This Month Total Active

Condo/Co-opContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 68 67 -1.5% 133 127 -4.5%$300,000 - $499,999 143 155 8.4% 265 294 10.9%$500,000 - $749,999 103 125 21.4% 186 251 34.9%$750,000 - $999,999 37 62 67.6% 65 102 56.9%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 18 21 16.7% 29 35 20.7%$1,500,000 & higher 7 11 57.1% 11 20 81.8%Grand Total: 376 441 17.3% 689 829 20.3%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-opSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 46 35 -23.9% 100 87 -13.0%$300,000 - $499,999 90 124 37.8% 207 213 2.9%$500,000 - $749,999 81 114 40.7% 150 185 23.3%$750,000 - $999,999 22 30 36.4% 38 55 44.7%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 8 12 50.0% 15 30 100.0%$1,500,000 & higher 1 4 300.0% 6 13 116.7%Grand Total: 248 319 28.6% 516 583 13.0%

Average Sales Price: Feb 2019 Feb 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeCondo/Co-op $510,693 $558,254 9.3% $501,506 $564,439 12.5%



Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in February 2020 for fee simple attached homes increased 6.4% compared to February 2019.

• The fully active inventory at the end of February decreased 18.3% compared to the available inventory at the end of February 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for attached

homes increased 40.0% in February 2020 compared to February 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is up 26.6% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

increased 24.6% in February 2020 compared to February 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is up 20.7%.

• The average sales price was down 3.1% in February 2020 compared to February 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is down 9.2%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple AttachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 19 12 -36.8% 13 9 -30.8%$300,000 - $499,999 63 70 11.1% 85 69 -18.8%$500,000 - $749,999 83 83 0.0% 103 55 -46.6%$750,000 - $999,999 73 55 -24.7% 72 66 -8.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 33 43 30.3% 45 40 -11.1%$1,500,000 & higher 27 54 100.0% 70 78 11.4%Grand Total: 298 317 6.4% 388 317 -18.3%


Fee Simple AttachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 16 20 25.0% 35 36 2.9%$300,000 - $499,999 52 73 40.4% 106 139 31.1%$500,000 - $749,999 52 86 65.4% 132 155 17.4%$750,000 - $999,999 43 55 27.9% 90 119 32.2%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 40 45 12.5% 63 79 25.4%$1,500,000 & higher 12 22 83.3% 21 38 81.0%Grand Total: 215 301 40.0% 447 566 26.6%

Year-To-DateNew This Month

Fee Simple AttachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 10 17 70.0% 24 40 66.7%$300,000 - $499,999 30 47 56.7% 59 104 76.3%$500,000 - $749,999 56 61 8.9% 102 110 7.8%$750,000 - $999,999 39 47 20.5% 79 92 16.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 32 29 -9.4% 70 56 -20.0%$1,500,000 & higher 8 17 112.5% 23 29 26.1%Grand Total: 175 218 24.6% 357 431 20.7%

Average Sales Price: Feb 2019 Feb 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Attached $794,377 $769,626 -3.1% $828,393 $751,880 -9.2%



Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

increased 12.2% in February 2020 compared to February 2019. Year-to-date, there has been an increase of 22.1%.

• The average sales price for detached homes decreased 3.8% in February 2020 compared to February 2019.

• The average price year-to-date increased 2.6%.

SETTLEMENTS

DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for detached

homes decreased 9.6% in February 2020 compared to February 2019.

• The number of contracts year-to-date is up just 0.8%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

fee simple detached homes increased 6.3% in February 2020 compared to February 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on February 29, 2020 was down 1.6% compared to February 28, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple DetachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 3 3 0.0% 7 4 -42.9%$300,000 - $499,999 16 18 12.5% 37 22 -40.5%$500,000 - $749,999 33 24 -27.3% 41 31 -24.4%$750,000 - $999,999 19 33 73.7% 22 33 50.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 27 25 -7.4% 21 20 -4.8%$1,500,000 & higher 29 32 10.3% 64 79 23.4%Grand Total: 127 135 6.3% 192 189 -1.6%


Fee Simple DetachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 5 8 60.0% 11 12 9.1%$300,000 - $499,999 30 24 -20.0% 51 47 -7.8%$500,000 - $749,999 46 31 -32.6% 64 61 -4.7%$750,000 - $999,999 21 29 38.1% 35 47 34.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 23 18 -21.7% 40 39 -2.5%$1,500,000 & higher 21 22 4.8% 41 38 -7.3%Grand Total: 146 132 -9.6% 242 244 0.8%

Year-To-DateNew This Month

Fee Simple DetachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 4 4 0.0% 6 10 66.7%$300,000 - $499,999 13 16 23.1% 24 36 50.0%$500,000 - $749,999 21 21 0.0% 32 38 18.8%$750,000 - $999,999 14 17 21.4% 31 28 -9.7%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 19 16 -15.8% 31 35 12.9%$1,500,000 & higher 11 18 63.6% 25 35 40.0%Grand Total: 82 92 12.2% 149 182 22.1%

Average Sales Price: Feb 2019 Feb 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Detached $1,053,897 $1,013,969 -3.8% $1,066,902 $1,094,127 2.6%



Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for attached homes priced $500,000-$749,000 in February 2020 was 61.0%; that compares to a rate of 33.5% in February 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 13 of the 18 individual price categories.

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for February was 40.6%, which was an increase from the 38.3% rate in February 2019.

• The absorption rate for condos across most price ranges is more balanced in DC than anywhere else in the region.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for

attached homes for February was 48.7%, which is an increase from the 35.7% rate in February 2019.

• Again, look at the balance across most price ranges.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • February 2020’s absorption rate

for detached homes was 41.1%, a decrease from 43.2% in February 2019.

• And the balance among the price ranges is evident here as well.

Condo/Co-opAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 98 68 41.0% 109 67 38.1%$300,000 - $499,999 157 143 47.7% 149 155 51.0%$500,000 - $749,999 160 103 39.2% 177 125 41.4%$750,000 - $999,999 84 37 30.6% 101 62 38.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 47 18 27.7% 47 21 30.9%$1,500,000 & higher 61 7 10.3% 61 11 15.3%Grand Total: 607 376 38.3% 644 441 40.6%

February 2019 February 2020

Fee Simple AttachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 13 16 55.2% 9 20 69.0%$300,000 - $499,999 85 52 38.0% 69 73 51.4%$500,000 - $749,999 103 52 33.5% 55 86 61.0%$750,000 - $999,999 72 43 37.4% 66 55 45.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 45 40 47.1% 40 45 52.9%$1,500,000 & higher 70 12 14.6% 78 22 22.0%Grand Total: 388 215 35.7% 317 301 48.7%

February 2019 February 2020

Fee Simple DetachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 7 5 41.7% 4 8 66.7%$300,000 - $499,999 37 30 44.8% 22 24 52.2%$500,000 - $749,999 41 46 52.9% 31 31 50.0%$750,000 - $999,999 22 21 48.8% 33 29 46.8%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 21 23 52.3% 20 18 47.4%$1,500,000 & higher 64 21 24.7% 79 22 21.8%Grand Total: 192 146 43.2% 189 132 41.1%

February 2020February 2019

statpak march 2020 washington, dc…washington, dc’s real estate market – a significant increase...

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