6.UNEMPLOYMENT CASE PRESENTATION.Click Ankit Sancheti to edit Master subtitle style Abhiram Badri Narayan Chinnaraj Ganesh Kumar Yuvaraj Chowdry Chandramouli

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CASE BREIFING

The case describes the unemployment scenario in U.S. sample taken for the survey is 50 people. national mean length of time of unemployment was 14.6 weeks. mayor wants to estimate that the mean length of time the individuals have been unemployed in5/23/12 2

The The The

TO BE DISCUSSED??

Develop a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean age of unemployed individuals in Philadelphia. a hypothesis test to determine whether the mean duration of unemployment in Philadelphia is greater than the national mean duration of 14.6 weeks. Use a 1% significance level for the test. What is your conclusion? there a relationship between the age of an unemployed individual and the mean 5/23/12

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ESTIMATION Q. No -1Solution:n = 50 Pop SD = 11.94 years 47.5 % 2.5 % X1 =? MEAN = 36.6 47.5 % 2.5 % X2 =?5/23/12 44

Solution (Contd..)To compute Standard Error(S.E) : S.E = Pop. SD/n = 11.94/ 50 =1.69. Tolerance = Z-score * S.E = 1.96 * 1.695/23/12 5

Solution (Contd..)Estimate Interval = Mean Tolerance. = 36.6 3.31 Therefore, X1= 33.29 X2 = 39.91. So,95% confidence interval estimate 5/23/12

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Solution (Contd..)n = 50 Pop SD = 11.94 years 47.5 % 2.5 % X1 = 33.29 MEAN = 36.6 47.5 % 2.5 % X2 = 39.915/23/12 7

HYPOTHESIS TESTING Q. No. 2n = 50 Pop SD = 9.92 weeks

50 %

49 %

1% Z critical5/23/12 88

MEAN = 14.6

Solution (Contd..)H0 : The mean duration of unemployment in Philadelphia is same as the mean duration of unemployment in U.S. H1 : The mean duration of unemployment in Philadelphia is greater than the mean duration of unemployment in U.S.5/23/12 99

Solution (Contd..)To compute Standard Error(S.E) : S.E = Pop. SD/n = 9.92/ 50 =1.40. Tolerance = Z-score * S.E = 2.33 * 1.405/23/12 10

Solution (Contd..)

Z critical = Mean + Tolerance. = 14.6 + 3.26 = 17.86.

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Solution (Contd..)n = 50 Pop SD = 9.92 weeks

50 %

49 % 1% MEAN = 14.6 Z critical = 17.865/23/12 12

ConclusionThe mean of Philadelphia is 15.54 which is in the acceptance region lying between 14.6 and 17.86. Hence, we accept the Null Hypothesis(H0 ).5/23/12 13

Analysis of Type I and Type II errorAssuming H0 is true and if we reject it Type I error occurs. The consequence is that there are more number of job opportunities and the unemployment rate falls down. Assuming H0 is false and if we accept it Type II error occurs. The consequence is that measures will not 5/23/12 be taken to reduce the unemployment

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QUESTION 3.Is there a relationship between the age of an unemployed individual and the mean number of weeks of unemployment? Answer: Yes. There is a relationship between the age of an unemployed individual 5/23/12

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Explanation:AGE INTERVAL20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

AVERAGE NO. OF WEEKS UNEMPLOYED.9.67 9.44 12.14 10.75 20.83 18.67 19.675/23/12

30.16

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Comparison

Average = 30.16 Above54

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ConclusionThe graph clearly depicts there is a direct relationship between the age and the number of weeks unemployed . The average number of weeks unemployed below 40 is 10.5. The average number of weeks unemployed between 40 to 54 is 19.72.5/23/12 18

Conclusion (Contd..)Henceforth we concluded that as the age increases the duration of the person being unemployed is high. Age = Unemployment Duration

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Questions???

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