Status and Constraints of Wheat Seed System Status and Constraints of Wheat Seed System inin

CWANA for Rapid Delivery of Resistant CWANA for Rapid Delivery of Resistant VarietiesVarieties

International Wheat Stripe Rust Symposium18-20 April 2011

ICARDA, Aleppo, Syria

Zewdie BishawSeed Section, ICARDA

Source: FAOSTAT 2011

Wheat: Importance in CWANA Region

Region

Total area cultivated (x1000 ha)

Wheat area harvested

(x1000 ha)

Wheat (% of cultivated

area)

East and North Africa 65,568.0 7,535.8 11.5West Asia 89,912.1 27,493.0 30.6CAC 34,736.4 16,594.9 47.8Total 190,216.5 51,623.7 27.1

In 2008, wheat is a single most important commodity; and on average occupies 27% of cultivated area in CWANA

Source: FAOSTAT 2011

Wheat: Production and Productivity in CWANA Region

RegionArea harvested

(x1000 ha)Production (x1000 t)

Average yield (t/ha)

CAC 16,594.9 24,752.5 1.5

West Asia 27,493.0 55,064.4 2.0

East and North Africa 7,535.8 16,956.3 2.3

CWANA 51,623.7 96,773.2 1.9

CWANA (% World) 23 14 61

CWANA (% West Europe) 545 137 25

In 2008, CWANA covers 23% of global wheat area, but produces 14% and achieved a productivity of 61% (world) and 25% (Western Europe)

• Modern varieties are defined outputs of agricultural research--result of investments

• Seed remains a delivery mechanism for agricultural innovations--varieties and technologies

Why Seeds?Why Seeds?

Biotechnology

PlantBreeding

Agronomy

Seed Technology(Varieties and Seeds)

Farmers

Evolution of Formal Seed Evolution of Formal Seed SectorSector

Consolidation

Diversification

Expansion

Emergence Specialization

Public seed sectorPrivate seed sector

Public seed corporations

Seed projects

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Small (family) seed enterprises

Medium size seed enterprises

Large seed companies(seeds, inputs)

MNCs Emergence

Expansion

Maturity

Diversification

Commercial orientationIntegration

Service orientationLack of integration

Developing seed industries• Functioning infrastructure for cereals, some legumes & forages• Independent agency for variety release & seed certification• Main regulations exist supporting the seed sector• Increasing private sector participation

Intermediate seed industries• Functioning infrastructure for few cereals, none for legumes,

forages• Adhoc variety release and quality control• Existing laws are old or deficient in many aspects• Limited or no private sector participation

Least developed seed industries• No formally organized seed sector exists, limited infrastructure• No procedures or regulations for variety release & quality control• Adhoc seed production coordinated by agricultural research/DoA• Limited or lack of trained manpower in the seed sector

Status of Seed System in CWANA RegionStatus of Seed System in CWANA Region

Central Asia & Caucasus

Historically… • Centrally-planned and fully controlled system with few

varieties, BUT production of large seed quantities• Dominated by large public seed production units with little

commercial or market influences (seed allocation)

Currently…• After independence, evolving to market-economy, but not

yet fully functional• Diversification of agriculture (new crops) and emergence of

diverse clients (private farms, small farmers)

Status of seed industry: varietal releasesStatus of seed industry: varietal releasesNumber of released varieties (%) in selected countries

(2010)

From 2,572 released varieties, cereals (32%) and wheat (19%) altogether constitute 51% of releases

Source: Seed Section and country reports

Amount of seed distributed (%) in selected countries (2006-09)

Status of seed industry: seed availabilityStatus of seed industry: seed availability

From 1.1 million MT commercial seed supplied by formal sector, cereals (11%) and wheat (69%) together account for 80% of all seed distributed

Source: Seed Section and country Reports

What is the share of formal wheat seed What is the share of formal wheat seed sector?sector?

Source: FAO STAT 2011 and Seed Unit

Area in ha Potential seed demand (t)

Wheat seed supplied (t)

Formal sector (%)

Algeria (06-09) 1,614,712 220,761 75,060 34

Egypt (09) 1,311,262 183,577 40,335 22

Ethiopia (06-09) 1,520,700 228,105 15,486 7

Iran (05) 6,200,000 1,116,000 343,700 31

Morocco (06-07) 3,106,700 466,005 83,300 18

Pakistan (06-10) 8,750,700 1,093,838 247,621 23Tajikistan (06-09) 320,140 64,028 28,698 45

Turkey (06-09) 8,194,425 1,638,885 202,149 12

Yemen (06-09) 123209 17249 1027 6

Total 31,000,948 5,007,313 1,015,976 20

Formal sector seed supply on average is close to 20% of wheat seed, but varies between regions and within countries

Amount of seed distributed (%) by formal sector (2006-09)

What is the share of variety What is the share of variety distribution?distribution?

Egypt 2010 (CASP)

Pakistan2010

Variety Quantity % Variety Quantity %Sakha 93 8870 37.1 Seher-2006 215141 61.8Giza 168 4783 20.0 Inqlab-91 18336 5.3Sakha 94 3854 16.1

Faisalabad-08 18259 5.2

Beni Swief 1 2959 12.4 TD-01 14602 4.2Gemmiza 9 1242 5.2 Shafaq-2006 12301 3.5Others (9 vars) 2227 9.3

Others (54 vars) 69239 19.9

Total 23935 100.0 Total 347878 100Few mega-varieties tend to dominate the formal seed supply and in some countries old varieties still persists

Amount of wheat seed distributed (%) by formal sector in 2010

County Crop 

Top variety

(%) Top

two (%)

Top Three (%)

Top four (%)

Top five (%)

Turkey-2007 Wheat Area (%) 28.0 37.4 46.5 51.6 55.8

Farmers (%) 23.1 31.3 41.0 46.7 52.1

Ethiopia-1998

Wheat (n=304) Area (%) 39.3 49.8 60.2 70.2 79.9

   Farmers (%) 20.5 31.7 37.9 58 66.4

             Syria-1998

Wheat (n=206) Area (%) 26.3 52.4 67 75.6 83.2

   Farmers (%) 26 48.7 57.1 63.7 73.2

What is the share of varieties in farmers’ fields?

Few mega-varieties pre-dominant in farmers’ fields among them old varieties: Bezostaja-1 (‘68) and Gerek79 (‘76) in Turkey (2007); Pavon76 (‘82) and ET13 (‘81) in Ethiopia (1998)

What are Trends in Wheat Seed What are Trends in Wheat Seed Delivery?Delivery?

What are roles of private sector in wheat What are roles of private sector in wheat seed delivery?seed delivery?

VARIETY DEVELOPMENT•IARCs: Public NARS vs Private sector•Lack of niche varieties-market segmentation•Lack of IPR to promote private sector research

VARIETY TESTING AND RELEASE•Lengthy variety trials with limited flexibility •Inadequate use of data from other sources•Time lag between release and seed availability

SEED PRODUCTION•Lack of functional seed units and facilities •Access to early generation by private sector•Low MF and high volume -more generations

SEED MARKETING AND PROMOTION•Lack of accurate forecast of ‘effective’ seed demand •Inadequate promotion of NARS varieties (PG, licensing)•Low varietal replacement rate (old varieties)

ENABLING POLICY ENVIRONMENT•Private sector entry: Incentives, investments capital •Promote certified seed use ($41.7/ha in Turkey)

VARIETY DEVELOPMENT•IARCs: Public NARS vs Private sector•Lack of niche varieties-market segmentation•Lack of IPR to promote private sector research

VARIETY TESTING AND RELEASE•Lengthy variety trials with limited flexibility •Inadequate use of data from other sources•Time lag between release and seed availability

SEED PRODUCTION•Lack of functional seed units and facilities •Access to early generation by private sector•Low MF and high volume -more generations

SEED MARKETING AND PROMOTION•Lack of accurate forecast of ‘effective’ seed demand •Inadequate promotion of NARS varieties (PG, licensing)•Low varietal replacement rate (old varieties)

ENABLING POLICY ENVIRONMENT•Private sector entry: Incentives, investments capital •Promote certified seed use ($41.7/ha in Turkey)

What are constraints for wheat seed delivery?

Popular Myths and Misconceptions1. Varietal replacement ≠ Seed

replacement

2. Varietal adoption ≠ Certified seed use

3. Varietal adoption ≠ 100% ceiling-niche markets

4. Potential seed demand ≠ effective seed demand

5. Certified seed is expensive

6. Informal seed is of poor quality

Rusts are Threat to Global Food Security

1. Historically new rust races emerged and spread from region to regions

2. All commercial wheat cultivars become susceptible overtime

3. IARCs and NARS are spearheading efforts breeding resistant varieties

4. Fast track variety release and rapid seed multiplication are key for combating the threats

Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery

Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery-Key Components...2 1. Identifying rust resistant and high yielding wheat varieties with

desirable characteristics in respective countries

2. Fast track variety testing and release (e.g. adaptation trials) by advocating flexible policy/regulatory options with partners

3. Accelerated pre-release seed multiplication of promising lines (breeder to basic) and large-scale production of released varieties (certified) for distribution through formal/informal channels

4. Popularization and promotion of rust resistant varieties with farmers (including targeted small-pack seed distribution) to initiate informal farmer-to-farmer diffusion

5. Capacity building in technical aspects of seed production and provision of infrastructure (training and critical equipment)

6. Creating awareness among policy makers, partner institutions and farmers on the imminent threat of rusts on food security

Accelerated Seed Multiplication Scheme

Varietal purification and

multiplication

Breeder seedproduction

Pre-basic seed production

Formal Sector

(public/private)

Informal Sector

(community-based)

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Basic seed production

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variety release

Variety release

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Formal and informal seed

production and distribution

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Resistance lines identified for release

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Seed Production Variety Testing

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Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery-seed multiplication...3

Options to Accelerate Seed Multiplication?

• Start with a larger initial quantity of seed

• Raise multiplication factor through intensive management

• Possible use off-season seed production

• Use of regional approach to seed multiplication

• Strengthening capacity and facilities

Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery...3

Country Area under wheat cultivation in 2007

10% ofwheat area

% Area covered after four generations with MF

1:30 1:40 1:60Afghanistan 2,190,000 219,000 18.4 58.4 100Algeria 1,785,000 178,500 22.6 71.7 100Egypt 1,139,000 113,900 35.6 100 -Ethiopia 1,351,000 135,100 29.9 94.7 100Iran 6,400,000 640,000 6.3 20.0 100Iraq 531,210 53,121 76.2 100 -Kzakhstan 12,876,700 1,287,670 3.1 9.9 50.3Morocco 1,500,000 150,000 27.0 85.3 -Pakistan 8,494,000 849,400 4.8 15.1 76.3Saudi Arabia 462,000 46,200 87.7 100 -Sudan 250,000 25,000 100 - -Syria 1,850,000 185,000 21.9 69.18 100Tunisia 974,000 97,400 41.6 100 -Turkey 8,600,000 860,000 4.7 14.9 75.3Uzbekistan 1,400,000 140,000 28.9 91.4 100Yemen 114,030 11,403 100 - -

Approaches for Rapid Seed Delivery-seed multiplication...4

With 50 kg seed and at a seed rate of 100 kg/ha, it is possible to cover substantial area of wheat at MF of 30, 40 and 60 (i.e. 3, 4 and 6 MT/ha)

Conclusion

NARS

Donors

Public/Private Sector, Ministries, NGOs

IARCs

Farmers

• Contingency planning for response to rust epidemics

• Integrated holistic and multi-stakeholders approach

• Strong commitment from stakeholders and donors

• Effective and transparent partnership and coordination

THANK YOUSeed Security for Food Security