Status: Criterion 5—Maintenance of forest contribution to global

carbon cyclesLinda S. HeathJames E. SmithUSDA Forest ServiceNortheastern Research StationDurham, NH, USA

Ken Skog (Indicator 28)USFS, FPL, Madison, WI

Technical Workshop on the Refinement of the MP Criteria 5 Indicators, 5-6 April, 2005, Atlanta, GA

Growth

Removals

Litterfall,Mortality Treefall

Harvestresidue

Humification Decomposition

SOIL

DOWNDEADWOOD

FORESTFLOOR

ATMOSPHERE

STANDINGDEAD

HARVESTEDCARBON

BIOMASSAbove and Below

LANDFILLS ENERGY

Imports/Exports

PRODUCTS

Mortality

Recycling

decay

processing

burning

disposal burning

burning

decay

decay

Land usechange

NonforestSoilErosion

Forest sector carbon pools and flows

Indicators26. Total forest ecosystem biomass and C

pool, and if appropriate, by forest type, age class, and successional stages. (Stock)

27. Contribution of forest ecosystems to the total global C budget, including absorption and release of C. (Change in C; flux)

28. Contribution of forest products to the global C budget.

State Department: Need to be consistent with UNFCCC estimates.

Basic relationships between indicators

• Ind. 26. Carbon stock = Carbon/Area x Area

• Ind 27= Ind 26(time2)-Ind 26(time1)

• Ind 28=f(Removals)(utilization rates)(decay rates)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000C

arb

on

po

ol

(Mt)

Aboveground

Belowground

Soil

N P N P N P N PConiferous Broad- Mixture Nonstocked/

leaved Chaparral

N=Natural regeneration, P=Plantation

Conterminous US Forest C pools (Mt), 1997, by broad forest types and regeneration status

Indicator 26

Conterminous US Forest C, Inds 26&27

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1953 1963 1977 1987 1997

Year

Car

bo

n p

oo

l (M

t)

Abovegrd live tree

Abovegrd standingdead tree

Understory

Down dead wood (inclstumps)

Forest floor

Belowground live tree(roots)

Belowground deadwood carbon

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1953-1962

1963-1976

1977-1986

1987-1996

Years of Period

Av

g n

et

C p

oo

l ch

an

ge

pe

r y

r (M

t/y

r)

Abovegrd live tree

Abovegrd standingdead tree

Understory

Down dead wood (inclstumps)

Forest floor

Belowground live tree(roots)

Belowground deadwood carbon

Net C changes in harvested wood pools (Mt/yr) for the US

0

50

100

150

200

Year

Ne

t c

arb

on

po

ol c

ha

ng

e p

er

yr

(Mt/

yr)

Emitted

Energy

Landfills

In use

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997

Includes net imports Indicator 28

National GHG reporting to UNFCCC

•Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Sinks Inventories (1990-present)

(US Environmental Protection Agency)- All sectors, we do forest estimates•Every 5 years, summary national communication- State Dept.

Public involvement

US forest C stock change, 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Mt

C/y

r Products

Biomass

Dead/FF

DRAFT: Smith and Heath for 2005 EPA GHG Inventory

12% of total U.S. CO2 emissions

• IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (1994-1996) Reference, Workbook, Reporting

• IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (2001-2003)

• IPCC Revision Guidelines (2004-2006) ? volumes. AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

Nations need to be consistent with the methodology in the guidelines

Conform to Everimproving International Reporting Guidelines

Approach for current Crit 5 estimates

• Use Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) inventory data coupled with a modeling approach.

• Data from 120,000 field plots, collected by the USDA FS Forest Inventory & Analysis.

• Models include equations to convert tree measurements to carbon, equations to estimate non-tree carbon, to a complex modeling system to track projections of C

• Model tracks carbon through harvested wood products (Skog and Nicholson 1998)

Need to do better…

• Units (that is, metric vs english vs mixed)• Soil and belowground carbon• Clear definitions of forest, forest mgmt• Alaska, Hawaii, Territory coverage?• Gross changes, not just net?• Harvested wood• Criteria to choose between estimates from

different approaches?• Noncarbon greenhouse gases

Methods to determine estimates• Field measurements with biometric eqns.• Flux towers/Data fusion• Models: Ecological/ biogeographical/

biogeochemical/biophysical• Default IPCC approach—perhaps default

1605b approach• Uncertainty analysis

• Carbon in Harvested Wood: Modeling—imports/exports

UNFCCC Reporting – still evolving

• Consistency• Moving toward full land representation

(forest, cropland, grassland, wetland, settlement, other)

• Be able to report subcategories (nonforest becoming forest, forest remaining forest)

• Uncertainties required• Key source analysis• Transparency, verification, accuracy,

precision, cost

Painted Hills, OR