Status of Operational NWP System and the Satellite Data Utilization at JMA

Yoshiaki TakeuchiNumerical Prediction DivisionJapan Meteorological Agency

APSDEU-7, Honolulu, 20-22 September 2006

Contents

1. Current NWP system at JMA

2. Recent developments

3. Plans for JFY2006 and after

History of the JMA NWP System

2006.3

72.5

NH Balance Barotropic (381km)

70.4

75.1

NHM (381km L8)

83.3 NH Spectral (T42L12)

70.4 88.3 Global Spectral; GSM (T63L16)

Asia Quasi Geostrophic (304.8km L4) 89.1 GSM (T106L21)

73.10 GSM (T213L30)

Asia Fine Mesh; FLM (152.4km L6) GSM (T213L40)

FLM (127km L10) GSM (TL319L40)

83.3 FLM (127km L12)

88.3 Regional Spectral ASM (75km L16)

RSM (20km L36)

83.3 Very Fine Mesh; VFM (63.5km L11) RSM (20km L40)

84.1 VFM (63.5km L13)

88.3 J SM (40km L19) Hydro. MSM (10km L40)

92.3 J SM (30km L23) 04.9 Non- Hydro. MSM(10kmL40)

as of September 2006

1982.3

Non- Hydro.MSM (5kmL50)

2001.3

1959.3

IBM704

HITAC5020F

HITAC8800

1967.4 1973.8

HITACHISR11000K1

1996.3

05.2

HITACM200H

HITACS810K

HITACHIS3800

HITACHISR8000E1

NH Balance (381km L3)

NH Primitive; NHM (381km L4)

1987.12

Current NWP models of NPD/JMA

　 Global Model(GSM)

Regional Model(RSM)

Typhoon Model (TYM)

Mesoscale Model (MSM)

One-week Ensemble

Objectives Medium-range forecast Short-range

forecastTyphoon forecast

Disaster reduction

One- week forecast

Forecast domain

Global East Asia Typhoon and

its surrounding

Japan and its surrounding

Global

Grid size /Number of

grids

0.5625 deg640 x 320(TL319)

20 km325 x 257

24 km 271 x 271

10 km721 x 577

1.125 deg320 x 160(TL159)

Vertical levels / Top

400.4 hPa

4010 hPa

2517.5 hPa

5021,800m

400.4 hPa

Forecast hours

(Initial time)

90 hours (00 UTC)216 hours (12 UTC)

36 hours (06, 18 UTC)

51 hours (00, 12UTC)

84 hours (00, 06, 12, 18

UTC)

15 hours(00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21

UTC)

9 days (12 UTC)

51 members

Analysis 4D-Var 4D-VarInterpolated from Global

Analysis 4D-Var

Global Analysis with

ensemble perturbations

RSM (20km)

GSM (60km)

MSM (5km)

Domains of NWP models

Mar 2005- Mar 2006-

80nodes

New Supercomputers of JMA

Satellite Data Processing Numerical Weather Prediction

HITACHI SR11000K1

160nodes

21.5Tflops

HITACHI SR11000J1

50nodes

6.1Tflops

13.1TB Main memory 36.2TB Disk 2.0PB Tape

50nodes

=2.1 GFlops x 16 processors x 80 nodes x 2

=1.9 GFlops x 16 processors x 50 nodes x 1

80nodes

NAPS－WAN(100Mbps x2 Wide Area ether

Network)

Headquarters (Tokyo)

Numerical Analysis and Prediction System 　

(NAPS-8 1 March 2006 - )

1. Satellite data processing2. Numerical analysis and prediction

Objects

KIYOSE Office (24km WNW from Tokyo)

Configuration of NAPS-8

Terminals for System Operation and Surveillance

Servers of Divisions for Data Processing

High-speed LAN

Tape Library

Servers for NWPData Processing

Servers for Satellite Data Processing

Supercomputer(SR11000 K1 x 2 + SR11000 J1 x 1)

Strage AreaNetwork

System and Job Information Acquisition Terminals

Servers of Divisions for Data Processing

High-speed LAN

Weather Forecast Operation Aiding Server

Performance of GSM (1)NH Z500 (Day 2) SH Z500 (Day 2)

NH Z500 (Day 5) SH Z500 (Day 5)

WGNE intercomparison of typhoon track forecasts from operational global models

Performance of GSM (2)

72 hour forecasts

Contents

1. Current NWP system at JMA

2. Recent developments

3. Plans for JFY2006 and after

Recent Operational Changes to GSM (1)

・ A revised radiation scheme for better treatment of cloud effects and a new ozone climatology for the radiation calculations (2005.7)

Improvement of AC score of Z500 score in NHRed: New modelBlue: Old model

AUG 2004 JAN 2005

Reduction of zonal mean temperature error of 5-day forecasts.

New modelOld model

Recent Operational Changes to GSM (2)

・ A thinning scheme for one-hour time slots in 4D-Var for ATOVS assimilation (2005.8)

Improvement of typhoon track forecasts in August 2004Red: New model, Blue: Old model

Obs. timeNOAA-16/AMSU

Aqua/AMSU

Time

Assimilation window

Thinned by the old scheme but used with the new scheme

Recent Operational Changes to GSM (3)

・ New operation at 06, 18 UTC with forecast time of 36 hours in addition to 00 UTC with 90 hours and 12 UTC with 216 hours.・ Increase in the resolution of inner loop of the 4D-Var from T63L40 (~200km) to T106L40 (~120km) (2006.3)

Improvement of anomaly correlation coefficients (unit:%) of 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts in August 2004.

NH SH

T106L40

T63L40

T106L40

T63L40

Recent Operational Changes to GSM (4)

・ Direct assimilation of SSM/I, TMI, and AMSR-E radiance data (2006.5)・ Introduction of a variational bias correction for microwave sounder and imager data (2006.5)

Improvement by 6 hours

Improvement of typhoon track forecasts in August 2004Red: with MWRs, Blue: without MWRs

Recent Operational Changes to GSM (5)・ Introduction of a variational bias correction for microwave sounder and imager data (2006.5)

Bias correction term is in the observation operator

Coefficients: Calculated in the system automatically Time developing data It shows the relation between the instrument and model fields

Predictors: p TCPW, TSRF, TSRF

2, WSSRF, 1/cos(ZANG), 1(Const)

Observation Operator: xxβxz bphh~

y

Recent Operational Change to MSM (1)・ Increase of radial wind data from two Doppler Radars for Airport Weather in the meso-analysis (2005.6)

Coverage of Dopller Radar observation Blue: Additional sites (Fukuoka, Chubu), Green: Existing sites (Shin-Chitose, Narita, Tokyo, Osaka, Kansai, Naha)

<http://www.morigumi.co.jp/works/kentiku.html>

<http://www.tokyo-jma.go.jp/home/chubu/draw.htm>

Recent Operational Change to MSM (2)・ Increase in the resolution from 10kmL40 to 5kmL50.・ Enhanced operation from 4 times to 8 times a day.・ Shortened forecast time from 18 hours to 15 hours.・ Refinement of the radiation scheme, cumulus parameterization scheme, and surface and boundary layer schemes. (2006.3)

Improvement of heavy rain forecasts. One-hour precipitation forecasts at 00UTC 1 August 2004 with 5 km-MSM (center) and 10 km-MSM (right) and radar-AMeDAS observation (left)

5 km-MSM 10 km-MSMObservation

Relative humidity at the lowest layer of MSM by 18 hours forecasts with 26 May 2005 initial time

Recent Operational Change to MSM (3)・ Introduction of a global daily sea surface temperature data analyzed by using data from satellite microwave radiometer, satellite infrared radiometer and in-situ observation (MGDSST) (2006.3)Note) MGDSST is also introduced to RSM and TYM (2006.3)

VIS image at 00UTC 26 MAY 2005

New SST – Old SST at 26 MAY 2005

Old SST

0.25 x 0.25 degrees Available for all weather condition

New SST

Data use in Global Analysis (1)

Data use in Global Analysis (2)

Data use in Meso-scale Analysis

Exchanged Direct Broadcast ATOVS Data

Data coverage of NOAA-15,16,17 (AMSU-B ch.1)00UTC 22 July 2006Light: without RARS, Right: with RARS

Data coverage of NOAA-18 by RARS (AMSU-A ch.4)06UTC 23 July 2006

Exchanged direct broadcast ATOVS data

Improvement of early analysis against cycle analysis by using AP-RARS. Coloured conter shows difference between early analysis and cycle analysisZ20 at 00 UTC 18 July 2006. Left: without AP-RARS, Right: with AP-RARS.

Data coverage of AMSU-A ch.1 at 00UTC 18 July 2006

History of Satellite Data Ingest at JMA7 August 2006 MTSAT/CSR ingest/ decode18 July 2006 CHAMP data and GRACE data ingest / archive via Internet16 July 2006 GOES-11, 12 CSBT ingest from NWS server via Internet11 July 2006 ATOVS Syowa data recover06 July 2006 NOAA-18 level 1C global data ingest from NWS server via Internet20 June 2006 METEOSAT-8 AMV BUFR ingest via GTS07 June 2006 RARS ATOVS data exchange via GTS05 June 2006 CHAMP data ingest via Internet25 May 2006 METEOSAT hourly AMV via Internet09 May 2006 FY2 AMV data decode06 April 2006 FY2 AMV data ingest 12 October 2005 NOAA-18 direct reception by MSC05 July 2005 TBB-Albedo GPV data of MTSAT-1R instead of GOES-908 June 2005 GOES-10, 12 BUFR AMV via Internet18 May 2005 Meteosat-5,7 CSR decode

History of Satellite Data Use at JMA

21 August 2006 ATOVS pre-processing update, Change of VarBC explaining variable for GA15 August 2006 DMSP-15 SSM/I decode halted due to 22 GHz channel degradation21 June 2006 Replace GOES-10 with GOES-11 for GA14 June 2006 Meteosat-8 BUFR AMV use instead of Meteosat-7 for GA 15 May 2006 DMSP-13, 14, 15 /SSMI, Aqua/AMSR-E, TRMM/TMI radiance use for GA Variational Bias Correction is implemented and applied to MWR and ATOVS18 April 2006 NOAA-18 temperature produced by NESDIS for MA30 March 2006 NOAA-18 temperature produced by NESDIS for RA 02 August 2005 ATOVS thinning method improved with one-hour time slot for GA21 July 2005 Aqua/AMSR-E radiance and TPW correction implemented for MA15 July 2005 Replace GOES-9 SATOB with MTSAT-1R SATOB for GA, RA and MA

Contents

1. Current NWP system at JMA

2. Recent developments

3. Plans for JFY2006 and after

Plans for JFY2006 and afterNew Observation►AP-RARS for GSM (2006)►0.25 deg. SST data based on AVHRR and MWR for GSM (May 2007) ►EARS and extended AP-RARS for GSM (2007)

►RARS for Metop (ATOVS, ASCAT) for GSM (2007)

►MTSAT-1R hourly AMV for all models►Geostationary satellites WV data for GSM based on RTTOV-7►Aqua/AIRS radiance data for GSM ►GPS occultation data for GSMAnalysis and Model►Improvement of resolution of 4D-Var inner model for GSM from T106 to T159 (May 2007)►Modification of physics for GSM (gravity wave drag, etc.) ►a reduced grid for GSM with the resolution of 20km (May 2007)►33 hours forecast of MSM 4 times a day (May 2007) ►Non-hydrostatic based 4D-Var for MA (March 2008)►Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter for GA and MA

Plan of the JMA NWP System

JFY 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

120km

60km

40km

20km

10km

5km

2km

Ho

rizo

nta

l res

olu

tio

n GSM

3D-Var 4D-Var

TYM

RSM

High-res. MSM

Thick arrows: forecast modelsThin arrows : assimilation methods

4D-Var

Hydrostatic 4D-Var

4D-Var

Non-hydrostatic 4D-Var

Non-hydrostatic 3D-Var

WeeklyEnsemble

MSM

Computer Replacement

Non-hydrostatic 10kmL40Hydrostatic

OI

Computer Replacement

Meso-Ensemble

TL319L60M51BGM→SV

T106L40M25 TL159M51

TL959L60 TL959L80

TL479L80M51

4D-Var with EKF

SeasonalEnsemble CGCM TL159L60M51+0.5deg

T213L40 TL319L40

with mixed layer

TyphoonEnsemble

TL319L60M11

TL479L80M25

2kmL60

5kmL50

24kmL25

20kmL40

TL159L60M51

5kmL60

Thank you for your attention!