status of wg1 science plan issues
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Status of WG1 Science Plan Issues. Christoph Schraff Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany. KENDA LETKF at CNMCA : talk by Lucio Torrisi 3DVar at HMC (Sochi area): not (yet) as good as interpolated GME analyses; will test use of radar radial winds - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 1
Status of WG1Science Plan Issues
Christoph SchraffDeutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
• KENDA
• LETKF at CNMCA : talk by Lucio Torrisi
• 3DVar at HMC (Sochi area): not (yet) as good as interpolated GME analyses; will test use of radar radial winds
• ARPA-SIM (Virginia Poli): comparison of 1D-Var+nudging and LHN
1D-Var not as good as LHNProblem: bias between moist physics of COSMO and diagnostic scheme used in 1D-Var
work will be stopped
• at DWD: •Direct nudging of radial velocity•LHN for COSMO-EU•Nudging of GPS-IWV
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 2
threshold:0.1 mm / h
FSS, 11 g.pts. (30 km)
12-UTC forecast
runs
nudging of radar radial velocity:verif. vs. radar precipitation (1 – 27 May 2012)
00-UTC forecast
runs
ETS
control (C-DE setup, with LHN)use of radial velocity added
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 3
nudging of radar radial velocity: summary
• experiment May 2012 with additional use of vr (control with LHN !) :
small positive impact on (mainly strong) precipitation otherwise neutral no show cases with strong positive impact
• next: check and improve efficiency, add few more tests, make it operational
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 4
Latent Heat Nudging for COSMO-EU
Motivation
•Reanalysis Project of HErZ would like to use LHN also on its larger domainconfiguration (COSMO-CORDEX, x = 7km)
•Does it work ?
Is there a negative interaction between LHN and the deep convection scheme ?
Experiments
•2 periods: Summer: August 2012 (incl. convective cases)
Winter: 1 Nov. – 15 Dec. 2012 (incl. snow cases)
•operational COSMO-EU setup (Cosmo V4_27, tk?min=0.4)
•operational LHN setup except: • no blacklist information used• no bright band detection• LHN within first 25 minutes of forecast (will be ~ 2.5h in operational run)
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• same data as for COSMO-DE,
currently•17 German Doppler radar stations
quality controlled•2 Dutch stations•2 Belgian stations•9 France stations•3 Swiss stations•2 Czech stationssoon extended by 2 Polish stations
• every 5 minutes
• future: can be extended by OPERA composite outside COSMO-DE domain
LHN for COSMO-EU:radar data coverage
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hourly precipitation at 2 Aug. 2012, 00 UTC + 4h
Radar Control (rout) LHN Experiment
LHN for COSMO-EU:case study
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12 UTC 0.1 mm/h 12 UTC 2.0 mm/h
00 UTC 2.0 mm/h00 UTC 0.1 mm/h
LHN for COSMO-EU:verif. vs. radar precipitation (August 2012)
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 8
• LHN in COSMO-EU is beneficial; forecast impact:
• Summer:
• precipitation improved (esp. convective cases)
• most surface parameters slightly improved
• Winter: neutral
• Work started to extend data coverage using OPERA radar composite
LHN for COSMO-EU:Summary
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Status of OPERA
• three 2-D composites are available every 15 minutes:
• current rain rate, sum over last hour, current maximum reflectivity
• Phillipe Lopez (ECMWF) found out:
• quality has increased in 2013 (with Baltrad QC) but is still not sufficient everywhere
• best quality over UK, France, Poland and Germany
• underestimation over southern Europe
• underestimation in snow cases
• lots of spurious ground echoes
• software transforming it to COSMO grids available (Stephan)
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ODC composite
12 Aug 2013, 15 UTC
Status of OPERA
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Status of OPERA
‘EY composite: Input for LHN at DWD,
4 different storm-dep. Z-R relationships
OPERA DC composite (C-DE domain):
1 Z-R relationship
differences particularly for low precip rates; (erroneous spaital alignment ?)
12 Aug.2013
15 UTC
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 12
Status of OPERA
• 3-D reflectivity and radial wind:
• reflectivity sent by almost all member states,
radial wind only by few(but increasing)
(Courtesy Hidde Leijnse, * indicates max. number)
• HIRLAM already gets access to volume data, but possible also for other consortia
• dissemination of volume data to member states planned for end of 2014 (to be decided: with or without quality information ?)
• discussion about meta data / quality issues are ongoing(e.g. to distinguish ‘zero echo’ – ‘no data’ (compare with raw data))
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• overall strategic goals of COSMO: convective-scale EPS convective-scale ensemble-based DA
• other consortia: focus on 3D-/4D-Var for deterministic, EnKF for EPS hybrid
• Hybrid ‘4D-EnVar’ : without need of TL / adjointEnvironment Canada ! UKMO ? HIRLAM ?
• DWD: hybrid 3D-EnVar for global ICON for COSMO ? • advantages of EnVar over LETKF (for deterministic run !) :
localization on B, not in obs space better for non-local obs hybrid approach mitigates sampling error
• disadvantages of EnVar over LETKF: 4D approach limited: Use only obs times where Grib fields used costs
COSMO: continue with LETKF
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:General strategy
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• consolidation of LETKF scheme, wherever found required,may include extensions:
– intrinsic stochastic physics (links to WG3a, WG7)
– (other types of) additive covariance inflation
– iterative (e.g. running in place like) approaches or latent heat nudging (LHN) in view of improving convection initiation
– use of ensemble members with lagged valid time to reduce phase errors
– blending techniques to combine information from the larger scales of the nesting model
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:Action items 2015 2017 (and beyond !)
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• integrated forecasting system for nowcasting (NWC) andvery short-range-forecasting based on NWP
– towards very high resolution (1 km / sub-km)
(link to SFP project COSMO-Airport, incl. Mode-S data; sub-km)
– towards very high frequent analysis and forecast update
(link to HErZ TB1, KENDA with 5-min update using 3-d radar data)
– main issue: quality ! (need to match obs, but maintain balance)
– optional: ‘higher weights for latest observations’ (smaller obs errors, weaker data thinning) ? smaller localization scales ?
– optional: evaluation of assimilation of NWC products as pseudo-obs such as stability indices and objects (using non-conventional metrics)
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:Action items 2015 2017 (and beyond !)
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• extended use of obs (particularly PBL, low-level humidity, cloud, precip)
– consolidate obs focused in KENDA PP: radar, GPS slant path, SEVIRI cloud
– improved use of screen-level obs (T2m, RH2m, uv10m)
– SEVIRI WV (water vapour) channels
– AMDAR humidity ; high-resolution aircraft Mode-S (wind) data
– microwave radiometer (+ Raman lidar) T-, q- profiles, Doppler wind lidar, ceilometer cloud base height
– (SEVIRI VIS for cloud properties, cloud radar data (CALIPSO, EarthCARE 2015)
– renewable energy: power data from wind mill farms and solar power systems satellite
• no aerosol assimilation :– for COSMO-ART : accurate description of aerosol sources – would require substantial resources
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:Action items 2015 2017 (and beyond !)
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• lower BC (analysis (link to WG3b) + perturbations (link to WG7) !)
– soil moisture SM (soil temperature, etc.), e.g. by:
– include SM in control vector, add SMOS / ASCAT satellite SM
– separate 2-D column analysis: LETKF, or EPS used in Var-SMA
– snow cover and depth
– SST (perturbations e.g. by pattern generator)
• diagnosis: (explore in EnKF framework) use of FSO (Forecast Sensitivity to Observations) (→ link to HErZ project) DFS (Degrees of Freedom for Signal) diagnostics
(to assess usefulness of different observation types)
• 2017+ : adapt LETKF to ICON-LAM (review decision LETKF – EnVar)
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:Action items 2015 2017 (and beyond !)
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• … see previous slides
• MTG-IRS
• MW + IR radiance over land + in cloudy areas (dep. on experience in global DA)
• parameter estimation ?
• observation error correlations ?
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:Action items 2018 2020
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• insufficient quality of LETKF ( develop EnVar ?)
• need to maintain / increase (often temporary) human resources ! Depends on:
continuation of HErZ after 2014
new fixed position for radar DA
new temporary positions ?
EUMETSAT fellowship submitted by CNMCA: sat data on soil moisture
further increase of involvement e.g. by MCH, ARPA-SIM, CNMCA, …
… new projects / collaboration with academia
new flexible portable scripts may facilitate experimentation + collaborationwith other institutes on a technical level observation error correlations ?
COSMO Science Plan Issues on DA:risks
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• consolidate / refine LETKF wherever required (enhancement techniques e.g. to correct phase errors; RIP, LHN …)
• integrated forecasting system for NWC – (V)SRNWP
• obs: radar, GPS slant, cloud; screen-level; SEVIRI WV, MTG IRS, …
• lower BC
• diagnosis: FSO , DFS
• adapt to ICON-LAM (develop EnVar ?)
Science Plan issues on data assimilation:Summary
[email protected] of WG1 and Science Plan IssuesCOSMO General Meeting, Sibiu, 2 – 5 Sept. 2013 21
Science Plan issues on data assimilation:Summary
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developments / plansat other consortia
• AROME:
– EDA: 3DVar with perturbed obs incl. surface ana (AROME 2014, Arpege LBC) later: revisit breeding / ETKF
– multiplicative inflation of forecast perturbations: 1.15 (every 3 hrs)
– stochastic physics tendencies (SPPT): large-scale, slowly evolving
– also tried: microphysics & turbulence parameter perturbations
– perturbed surface initial conditions (SST, SM, Rsmin, LAI, Cveg, Z0oro)
– coupling with large-scale analysis: tests with Jk term in Var(weak constraint towards coupling data in Var, truncate Jk info at
k=20)
– Tests with 1-hrly cycles (3DVar)
– use of SEVIRI WV over land
– issue: model bias with strong diurnal cycle
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• UKMO:
– NWP nowcasting system: Nowcasting Demonstration Project (NDP)
– 1hrly 4DVar with sub-hrly obs (…, MSG WV + AMVs, radar radial winds; hourly cloud obs (sat + surf), T2m, RH2m, uv10m) + LHN (!)
– 12-hour forecast every hour
– 40km-FSS beats STEPS (Lagrangian-extrapolation NWC) after 1.8 hrs
– forms basis for next-generation UK NWP nowcasting system
– generally: towards 4D-EnVar (without need of TL / adjoint ?)
developments / plansat other consortia