status quo and future evaluations of global rare … quo and future evaluations of global rare earth...

George Barakos I Helmholtz Institute Freiberg for Resource Technology I www.hzdr.de/hif

THIRD IN TERN ATION AL FUTURE M IN IN G CON FEREN CE

SYDN EY, AUSTRALIA

4 - 6 N OVEM BER 2 0 1 5

George BARAKOS, Helmut MISCHO, Jens GUTZMER

Status Quo and Future Evaluations of Global Rare Earth Mining (with Respect to Special REE-Industry Criteria)

Member of Helmholtz Society George Barakos I Helmholtz Institute Freiberg for Resource Technology I www.hzdr.de/hif

Scope of Research

An overview of rare earth elements

Evolution of the REE market

Current & future status of rare earth mining

Future evaluations & strategies

Concluding remarks


Rare Earth Elements - An Overview

(Source: bbci.co.uk)

• 16 elements with similar properties

• Crucial in many applications

• Declared as strategic metals

• More abundant than gold, silver, platinum

• China has been the dominant producer for 2 decades

• China accounts for nearly 70% of global REE demand

• World consumption increased 8-12% p.a. the last 10-15 years

• Japan, USA and Germany - Largest REE importers


The Global Market of Rare Earth Elements Major end uses & applications

World REEs consumption by end-use, 2014

23%

22%

16% 13% 7%

6% 5%

8%

Catalysts

Magnets

Metalurgy

Polishing

Glass

Ceramics

Phosphors

Other(Source: Roskill)


0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

supplydemand

World supply & demand forecast

The Global Market of Rare Earth Elements Supply & demand

(Sou

rce:

Bau

er e

t al,

2011

)

Balance problem

(Sou

rce:

Ros

kill,

201

5)

kT o

f REO

s


The Global Market of Rare Earth Elements The REE crisis & price spike

(Source: iNEMI, 2014)

• Marine conflict between China & Japan

• Restriction of exports from China

• Spread of worrisome news

• Prices of REEs soared in 2011

• Short-lived but intense crisis

• Prices declined significantly again

• Fragile market, high volatility


The Global Market of Rare Earth Elements The REE crisis & price spike

How did we end up here?


The Global Market of Rare Earth Elements The Chinese Era

• Well-thought, carefully crafted, dynamic long-term strategic plan

• China has a big market advantage (40% of global reserves)

• Termination of production in Mountain Pass (2002)

• Lax environmental regulations, cheap labour

• Tax rebates for REE exports (1985-2005)

“The Middle East has oil. China has rare earth elements”

(Deng Xiaoping, 1992)


Current Status of Rare Earth Element Mining Global production & reserves

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2014

world

china

REE

Pro

duct

ion

in k

T

Years (Source: USGS, 2015)



Global rare earth production, 2014

85,2%

6,3%

1,0% 0,2% 0,2%

China

USA

India

Australia

Russia

Thailand

Malaysia

Vietnam(Source: USGS, 2015)


40%

16% 14% 10%

2% 2%

16%

China

Brazil

Russia

USA

Australia

India

ROW(Source: USGS, 2015)


Global rare earth reserves, 2015 in Mt

55,0

22,0

19,0

13,0

03,2

03,1

22,0


Current Status of Rare Earth Element Mining Active Mines

1

3

5

7

9

2

4

6

8

1. Mountain Pass (USA) 2. Lovozero (Russia) 3. Khibiny (Russia) 4. Bayan Obo (China) 5. Weisan Lake (China) 6. Maoniuping (China) 7. Longnan (China) 8. Chavara (India) 9. Mount Weld (Australia)

Molycorp LREEs

Reserves: 1,47Mt 16.500 t in 2014

Lynas Corp LREEs

Reserves: 1,89Mt 22.260 t in 2014

China North REE Group REE-Fe-Nb deposit

LREEs Reserves: 40,0Mt 73.500 t in 2014

(Sou

rce:

ext

ende

d fro

m B

GS,

201

1)


19

Future Status of Rare Earth Element Mining Potential Mines

1

3

5

7

9

2

4

6

8

10. Bokan-Dotson (USA) 11.Nechalacho (Canada) 12.Hoidas Lake (Canada) 13.Bear Lodge (USA) 14.Motzfeldt (Greenland) 15.Kvanefjeld (Greenland) 16.Norra Kärr (Sweden) 17.Lofdal (Namibia) 18.Zandkopsdrift (South Africa) 19.Steenkampskraal (South Africa) 20.Nolans Bore (Australia)

11 10 12

13

15 14 16

17 18 20

(Sou

rce:

ext

ende

d fro

m B

GS,

201

1)


19

Future Status of Rare Earth Element Mining Other existing sources

1

3

5

7

9

2

4

6

8

11 10 12

13

15 14

17 18 20

16

(Sou

rce:

ext

ende

d fro

m B

GS,

201

1)


Future Status of Rare Earth Element Mining Remarkable REE projects

REE Project Owner Deposit type Mineralization Reserves (REO)

Bokan-Dotson Ucore Rare Metals Inc.

limorite, synchysite, lapatite, bastnaesite 30% HREEs 30.000 t

Nechalacho Avalon Rare Metals carbonatite 27% HREEs 250.000 t

Bear Lodge Rare Element Resources

ancylite, bastnaesite, monazite LREEs 224.000 t

Norra Kärr Tasman Metals eydialite, perkaline >50% HREEs 237.120 t

Lofdal Namibia Rare Earths Inc carbonatite, xenotime 75-93% HREEs 9.230 t

Steenkampskraal Great Western Minerals Group monazite LREEs 170.000 t

Potential REE underground mining projects


• Economic evaluations • Fragile market • Balance problem

• Environmental impacts

• Radioactivity (thorium) • Processing • Tailings management

• Sociopolitical arguments

• “Dirty elements” • NIMBY syndrome

• Technical aspects

• Lack of know-how • Evaluation of all the above on a common ground

Future Evaluations & Strategies REE mining industry-specific criteria

RESPONSIBLE MINING

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

HEALTH & SAFETY ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP


Future Evaluations & Strategies Alternative sources, recycling & substitution

• Alternative sources • Industrial wastes (e.g. bauxite residue) • By-products (e.g. aluminum, phosphogypsum) • By products of phosphoric acid production

• Olympic Dam (Australia) • Steenkampskraal

• Recycling of rare earth elements • Currently less to none recycling • Optimization of recycling process

• Substitution of rare earth elements

• With other rare earths • With other minerals or metals


Future Evaluations & Strategies Legislation & environmental safety

Rare earth stock exchange • Robust legislative instruments

• Radioactivity issues • Processing • Management of tailings • Flexibility that will attract investments

• Environmental protection • Avoid past mistakes • Strict regulations and penalties • Complacency of society and stakeholders

• Harmonization of laws to international standards

• Establishment of a global REE stock exchange


Future Evaluations & Strategies Technical aspects

• Common technical aspects • Presence of radioactive materials and acids • Dust fight, health & safety precautions • Ventilation for underground mining projects • Remediation after mining

• REE specific technical aspects • Thorium presence in REE geological formations • Selective and strategic mining • Cost-effective separation of REEs • Lack of knowledge and experience outside China • Establishment of processing plants all over the world • Treatment and disposal of mining & processing tailings


Assessment Tool for the Mineability of REE Deposits Research Project

-Conclusion to most suitable mining methods

-Pre-feasibility studies for all chosen mining methods

-Final choice of mining method; Feasibility study

-Final call on viability of project

-Evaluation of criteria in first 3 categories -Weight factors, Numerical ranking of methods

-Setting of categories and criteria -Ensure that the REE project has potentials

-Evaluation of criteria in remaining categories -Numerical ranking of methods and sensitivity analysis

• Quantification and assessment of all mining parameters

• Analytical Hierarchical Process - weight factors

• Numerical ranking method

• Re-evaluation loops

• Secure calculations

• Sensitivity analysis


Concluding Remarks

• A small market of 4 M$ that feeds market sectors of G$

• The global demand for REEs is growing fast

• Forecast of sufficient supply up to 2020 (but not for all REEs)

• China monopolizes the global production and consumption of rare earths

• The global exploration boom has revealed deposits with great perspectives

• By 2020 the ROW is expected to account 26% of world supply

• Global rare earth mining and processing is not “fair” (yet)

• Careful assessments have to be made to ensure viable future mining projects

George Barakos I Helmholtz Institute Freiberg for Resource Technology I www.hzdr.de/hif

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

[email protected] www.hzdr.de/hif

status quo and future evaluations of global rare … quo and future evaluations of global rare earth...

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