Cleaner Air For Scotland

National Modelling FrameworkOne Year on…

Colin Gillespie

· The NMF approach under CAFS

· Basis for problem solving

· Developing Working Groups· Gathering evidence

· Air quality data· Local traffic data collection· Visualising and analysing data· Addressing uncertainties

· Presenting evidence beyond paper-based report

· Next Steps…· Developing the modelling tools for regional and local planning

The focus is on…

National Modelling Framework

· Focus has been on developing the city approach and working groups

· Peer review of the Pilot Project

· On-line resources to facilitate city models

· Identifying regional traffic models

· Investigating standard regional approach

Problem solving approach to inform local actions

Basis behind the local model:· Define the problem to be solved

· Gather all available data/information and

analyse/visualise to generate information

· Identify critical data and address uncertainties

· Turn data into information

· Strong partnership approach

Basis of defining areas at risk, providing the evidence to underpin actions

NMF Groups to deliver the national approach for the Cities

· Co-ordinating the four city groups to deliver the detailed city models

· Ensuring the NMF is evidence-based for developing actions

· Each of the city groups are now set up – LAs, Regional Transport Partnership, TS and SEPA

· Modelling areas have been identified

· Progressing detailed data collection

Glasgow Edinburgh Dundee Aberdeen

National approach for gathering data and building the right picture

Data gathering· Traffic data collection

· Two-tiered approach · Visualising traffic information

· Identify existing data/information· Gathering additional traffic data – Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR)

· Improving street-based emissions and observed measurements

· Generate additional data/information to help inform the decision making process for generating actions

Collecting basic data sets…

· Collate AQ data from diffusion tubes and automatic stations

· Identify traffic data sources – LAs, TS, RTAs · Collate traffic data from multiple automatic stations

and modelled outputs

· Build visualisation tools to inform potential model area and identify gaps

National data sets vs Local data

· Pilot Project identified the need for good local traffic data

· Discrepancy between DfT data and local data · Greater traffic data provides greater volume of traffic

information· Local information is needed to generate local actions

Collecting traffic data for Glasgow

· Existing data identifies gaps

· Local knowledge defines collection points· Traffic flow and traffic composition – identifies key

routes

· Data collected is fit for use beyond AQ

Visualising Glasgow traffic data(total traffic)

· Visualisation tools are great for identifying issues

early

Dealing with uncertainties – national vs local

· National Annual Average Daily Flows (AADF) conversion factor: 1.15 (withdrawn from TG16)

· Aberdeen: Automatic Traffic Count data used to calculate local AADF conversion factor (Union Street: 1.48, Market Street: 1.28)

Glasgow traffic flow rates

· Visualisation of 12 to 24 hour traffic flow rates

· Generating street specific AADF conversion rates

Glasgow ANPR data

· Valuable source of traffic information

· Identify specific traffic corridors

· Visualisation tools to interrogate the data

Using ANPR to focus on specific vehicle groups

· Split traffic data to fine scale

· Identify down to year and Euro Class

· Vehicle types – double decker vs coach

· National fleet vs local fleet composition

Dealing with wider uncertainties

· Model outputs vs monitoring station data

· Easterly wind resulted in high observations

· Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model shows recirculation zone at monitoring station

· Understand uncertainties

CFD modelling for Glasgow

· AQ base-runs have been undertaken

· CFD model has been built for Glasgow

· Potential issues are being identified early

Next focus in the City modellingOver the next year…

· Traffic data collection for Edinburgh should be completed this month

· Collection points will be agreed for Dundee and Aberdeen

· Final traffic data will be collected early 2017

· All four cities will be modelled

· Begin to identify further cities and towns as set out in CAFS actions

Regional NMF modelOver the next year…

· Investigate different approaches and build on requirements – initial work on the Netherlands model has shown good results

· Build on regional partnerships to identify relevant data across regional development areas

· Develop and trial modelling approach for regional and local development planning · Develop internet-based host for regional models and assessment tools for planning

· Develop reporting portal and guidance

Thanks