stephen clarke, lga - local government finance and the planning service
TRANSCRIPT
Planning Advisory Service Peer Day
Local Government Finance and the Planning service
Stephen Clarke
Adviser, Local Government Finance
Local Government Association
[email protected] February 2015 www.local.gov.uk
Outline
• Setting the scene• LGA outlook• Planning in context• Tough Times so far for
the planning service?• Future trends• Assumptions
• What if…• Planning outlook• The local picture• Planning, Spending,
Funding• LGA asks• What’s next?
www.local.gov.uk
Context: OBR forecast for Local Authority spending
The LGA’s outlook
www.local.gov.uk
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/200
10
20
30
40
50
60
How service expenditure might be squeezed
Capital Financing and other
Central Services
Planning and Development
Highways, Roads and Transport
Culture, Recreation and Sport
Housing
Education
Waste Management
Adult Social Care
Children's Social Care
£ (b
illi
on
)
Planning = 3% of 2014/15 expenditure
2%
Adult Social CareChildren's Social CareAll other services, capital financing and other costsEducationWaste ManagementCentral servicesCultural ServicesHousingPublic TransportHighwaysPlanning and DevelopmentRegulatory ServicesOther Environmental Services
What has happened in the last few years?• Councils made a larger reduction in spending
on planning and development services (11.5 per cent, on average) in 2012/13 than they had budgeted for
• Planning and development saw the largest average reductions in spending from 2010/11 to 2013/14: 37.6 per cent in real terms
(Audit Commission, Tough Times 2013)
What might happen in next few years?
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/2075%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Projected expenditure (2013/14 = 100%)
Children's Social CareAdult Social CareHousingWaste ManagementPlanning and DevelopmentCentral servicesTotal net expenditure
Assumptions about planning expenditure• CPI inflation on supplies and services• Pay drift on salaries• Projected change in population• income from charges increases by CPI (in long term)• “efficiencies” on gross cost of 1% per annum• What do you think?
What if…
• What if fees continue to be constrained?• What if demand increased?
The planning outlook
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 -
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Projected planning and development spend £bnSqueezed expenditure £bn
Local variation
• That’s the picture nationally• The gap is largely created by social care
swallowing more and more budget• About half of all Shire Districts have no
funding gap (according to the model)
Spending and funding
• Planning is one service where expenditure has (fairly direct) influence on funding
• Council Tax base• Business Rates retention• New Homes Bonus• Cuts to planning expenditure in year 1 might
reduce funding in year 2/3/4… a vicious circle?
LGA asks
• 100 Days “big finance asks”• Fiscal Devolution Bill• Locally set planning fees• To cover costs of processing applications• Ideally the net cost of that part of the service is
zero, not subsidised by taxpayer at all
Next steps
• March: Budget 2015• May: next government – future of NHB• (Autumn?) Spending Review 2015• (December?) 2016/17 local government
finance settlement
Questions
?
?