stephen devlin- agricultural labour
TRANSCRIPT
Agricultural labour in the UK
Stephen Devlin, Economist
2 key questions
1. What does the agricultural labour market look like right now?
2. What are the key factors that are going to cause it to change in the future?
Small (tiny!)
Percentage of working people employed in agriculture and fishing in the UK: 1841-2011
Source: UK Census data
Thin on the ground
Employment per unit area on EU farm holdings
Source: Eurostat
Uneven
Labour intensity of different farm types (number of jobs per hectare)
Source: UK Agriculture departments June Survey/Census of Agriculture
Male
Gender of farm managers (2013) and seasonal, casual or gang labour (2014)
Source: Farm Structure Survey 2013, Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2014
Old
Age of farm managers (2013)
Source: Farm Structure Survey 2013
Badly paid
Gross weekly pay
Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
All employees Skilled agricultural and related trades
£- £100 £200 £300 £400 £500 £600 £700 £800 £900
£1,000
Insecure
Workers/employees: collective bargaining power eroded, irregular/seasonal work
Farm owners/renters/managers: precarious business conditions
Divided
farm managers workers
skilled unskilled
domestic migrant
What does the future hold?
Productivity and technology
Skills, training and public perception
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Environment and public health
Productivity and technology
Skills, training and public perception
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Environment and public health
Productivity and technology
Partial factor productivity indicators for UK agriculture (1973 = 100)
Source: Defra
Productivity and technology
Technological progress on
farms
Labour moves to
higher value sectors
Labour gets more
expensive (food stays
cheap)
Farms want to reduce
labour requirements
Productivity and technology
Productivity and technology
Key questions
How far can agricultural automation go?
Exactly what type of jobs will remain?
How can the benefits of automation be shared?
Productivity and technology
Skills, training and public perception
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Environment and public health
Skills, training and public perception
Education and training (further education) participation in agriculture, horticulture and animal care
Source: Skills Funding Agency
Skills, training and public perception
Key questions
Is “upskilling” really so great?
How big a job is it to rehabilitate the reputation of farming as a career?
Productivity and technology
Skills, training and public perception
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Environment and public health
Globalisation, trade and the EU
-£400,000 -£200,000
£- £200,000 £400,000 £600,000 £800,000
£1,000,000 £1,200,000 £1,400,000
UK net imports (£000) by category, 2013
Source: Defra Note: some categories have been excluded to reduce complexity
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Key questions
What is the net employment impact of the government export drive?
Does it matter if labour market opportunities primarily benefit migrants?
Productivity and technology
Skills, training and public perception
Globalisation, trade and the EU
Environment and public health
Environment and public health
Environment Less but better meat
Environmentally beneficial production methods
Public Health Less but better meat; more fruit and
vegetables Fewer processed and sugary foods
Environment and public health
Key questions
Will technology erode labour required for environmental/health reasons?
Does it or does it not mean increased food prices?
A million jobs in food and farming?
Why? For the environment, health, reducing unemployment? All of the above?
Take account of the counterfactual Different motivations for quantity and
quality How to navigate the politics around
migration and food prices?
