stephen tse 1 information technology and processing power e-business dr. stephen tse chief...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Information Technology andInformation Technology andProcessing PowerProcessing PowerE-BusinessE-Business
Dr. Stephen TseDr. Stephen TseChief Technology Planning Strategist Chief Technology Planning Strategist
(Greater China CBU, Bell Labs)(Greater China CBU, Bell Labs)Associate Professor – QCAssociate Professor – QC
Lesson 2Lesson 2
2
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Disruptive Technologies Driving the Disruptive Technologies Driving the Communication IndustryCommunication Industry
Cellular Phone
10B
1B
100M
10M
Tra
ns
isto
rs p
er
Ch
ip
1995 2000 2005 2010
0.25µ
0.18µ
0.13µ
0.10µ
0.07µ
Probable limitfor silicon
Silicon
PC
“5ESS”Circuit Switch
0.8m Wavelength
1.3m
1.3/1.5m
1.5m WDM
WDMSystems
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sin
gle
-fib
er
cap
acit
y (
Gb
it/s
ec) Optics
Software is key to network management and new services
Software is key to network management and new services
Years
Cap
acit
y/C
ost
Disruptive Packet Technology
ATM
IP
?
Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.
Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.
1995 2000 2005
1000
100
10
1
Incr
ease
ove
r A
nal
og
Cel
lula
r V
oic
e C
all C
arry
ing
Cap
acit
y
2010
Wireless
80 wavelengthsin 1998, 1,000wavelengths in2005
Multi-antenna systemincreases capacity 10x-100x
SCALPEL lithography enablesatomic-scale transistors forsystems on a chip
Protocol-agnosticQoS-enabled routers
3
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Technology Advances
Technologies ExamplesImprovement1998 - 2002
Integrated Circuit Density 16x 4 GBIT DRAM
Processor Speed 15x 7700 MIPS-2G
High-Speed Switching 25x 25x106 PKTS/SEC
6.4 Terabits/sec
Speech Recognition 15x 5000 WordContinuous Speech
Lightwave 3x 3.2 Terabits/sec.
Storage 25x 50 GBYTE Card
Wireless Capacity 20x Digital, Micro and Pico cells
Software Productivity up to 10x Reusable Software/
Parallel processing
4
Stephen TseStephen Tse
TelephonyTelephony•• Wide AreaWide Area
NetworksNetworks•• Local NetworkLocal Network•• CPECPE
CATVCATV•• Content ProvidersContent Providers•• Multiple PackagersMultiple Packagers•• Local Network(s)Local Network(s)•• CPECPE
ComputersComputers•• Software ProvidersSoftware Providers•• Hardware ProvidersHardware Providers•• NetworkingNetworking•• DistributionDistribution
ChannelsChannels•• Hardware &Hardware &
Software PackagesSoftware Packages
ContentContent•• MusiciansMusicians•• ReportersReporters•• DistributionDistribution
ChannelsChannels•• BooksBooks•• CDsCDs•• NewspaperNewspaper
Today: Separate Vertical Industries
Future:InformationIndustry
Information ContentInformation Content
Information ServersInformation Servers
Information NetworksInformation Networks
Information AppliancesInformation Appliances
Cyber Carriers
••Intense Competition
••New Opportunities
Technology Convergence Is Breaking Down BarriersBetween Historically Separate Industry Segments
An Industry in Change
Business in the speed of Light
5
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Business Processes will Change as Enterprises Incorporate eBusiness
TomorrowIntegrated business processes
driven by secure access & shared information
VirtualEnterprise
Customers
GlobalLocations
Suppliers
Remote &Mobile
Workers
Communitiesof Interest
TransportService
ProvidersOutsourcedApplications
Partners
Traditional Enterprise
TodayBusiness processes bounded by
bricks & mortar
Partners
Suppliers
Customers
GlobalLocations
HR, Payroll,Finance
Manufacturing
Logistics
6
Stephen TseStephen Tse
E-Business Working DefinitionE-Business Working Definition
Technologies advance change business value chain position. Enterprise must continuously optimize its value position in order to stay competitive.An electronic business (e-Business) will use its Information Technologies(IT) infrastructure, networks, and applications for continuous optimization of its value chain position.
May 1.0
SCM ERP CRM
Inventory
Purchasing
Logistics
Financial Marketing
Sales
Transaction Flow
ClientServices
Ebiz
E-Business affects most operational aspects of an enterprise
Supply Chain Management Customer Relationship ManagementEnterprise Resource Procedure
7
Stephen TseStephen Tse
TelemedicineTelemedicine Media-enabledMedia-enabled
Virtual OfficeVirtual Office E-CommerceE-Commerce
Distance Distance learninglearning
Interactive Interactive coursewarecourseware
Web radioWeb radio Web televisionWeb television
Important uses ofImportant uses of Multimedia ContentMultimedia Content
Stephen TseStephen Tse
8
Stephen TseStephen Tse
PostalStandard e-mail works fine• But how about . . . .
– Certificate of delivery– Certificate of mailing– Time stamps– Registered post
• Secure mail technology is available (S-MIME)
– Works with encryption technology
Converged Networks Will Provide
e-Commerce
• Credit cards– Secure as point-point transaction– New schemes (SET) enable capabilities yet unknown in physical world
• Smart cards• Cashless society (anonymity!)
Next generational communication
• Single network based personal data• Persistent rules, address books, friends list, . . .• Dynamic directories (Who’s online? Where?)• Unified messaging (Voice/e-mail/video)• Any-device, anywhere, anytime, but under your control
The TV viewing experience
• Meta-information adds to viewing experience• Big-red buy button• Collaborative viewing• Blurr real-time and non-real time• Personalized viewing (learning)
9
Stephen TseStephen Tse
4x4 Array of 2-Axis Micromirrors1mm mirror spacing / 0.5mm mirror diameterScalable to very large cross-connects (1024x1024)
Optical X-C2-Axis Micromirror
A MEMS Based Mirror Array
Mirror SurfaceMirror Surface
Self-AssemblingSprings
Self-AssemblingSprings
10
Stephen TseStephen Tse
I/O Fibers
Imaging Lenses
Reflector
MEMS 2-axis Tilt Mirrors
• Inherently bit-rate and protocol independent fabric
• Single-stage free space optical interconnection
• Compact optics (~25mm x 50mm x 50mm for 256x256 OXC).
• < 5msec switching.• ~ 6dB single-mode fiber
insertion loss• <-50dB crosstalk
Optical Space Fabric Router
11
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Photon Magic Micro Electro Mechanical Systems
Router
.5 mm
MEMS OXCI/O Fibers
ImagingLensesReflector
MEMS2-axis TiltMirrors
12
Stephen TseStephen Tse
3,200+ Innovative Companies3,200+ Innovative Companies
13
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Broadband Access Options Fiber Feeder
& Heterogeneous ‘First Mile’
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Deployment Year
Meg
abit
s
ISDN
VF Modem
DSL-Lite
ADSL
Stationary beam
VDSL
14.4
28.833.6
56K V.90
CableModem
Steerable Beam
Time-Space Processing
SDSLHDSL HDSL2
ATM PON (FTTH)
Wireless
Twisted Pair
Cable
Fiber
Ethernet
OpticalEthernet
Wavelan
14
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Free Space Optics – Laser Wireless
© 1999 L ucent T echnologies Lucent Technologies P roprietary Page 1
Access toRemoteMedia
Event inStadium
Span toClose
Fiber Ring
Building toBuilding
Connectivity
Accessto
CampusNetwork
Access AcrossGeographical
Barrier
(e.g. river)
15
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Very High Speed Atomic Scale Circuits
• SCALPEL lithography will
make VLSI circuits with 0.03m
(~90 atoms) devices practical
and economical
• 3D semiconductor structures will
extend the “Moore curve”
beyond lithography
• Indium phosphide will provide
high speed devices required for
future optical networking
Gate Gate
Source
Drain
Ch
ann
el
Gateoxide
Gateoxide
Gatelength
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
+5
120.03 120.04 120.05 120.06 120.07 120.08 120.09
Po
we
r [d
Bm
]
Frequency [GHz]
16
Stephen TseStephen Tse
What Will Happen in 2005?What Will Happen in 2005?
•Predictable Technologies - Silicon up by a factor of 50 - Fiber up by a factor of 100 - Wireless up by a factor 0f 100-1000
•Unpredictable Architectures and Convulsive Markets - IP for everything? - Home Networks? - Information appliances? - Video services on appliances? Sony Glasstron
personal theater
Palm VIIwireless PDA
17
Stephen TseStephen Tse