sterlite industries result updated

8/2/2019 Sterlite Industries Result Updated

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Particulars (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 3QFY12 % chg (qoq)Net sales 10,763 10,000 7.6 10,246 5.0EBITDA 2,705 3,051 (11.3) 2,414 12.1

% margin 25.1 30.5 (537)bp 23.6 158bp

Adjusted PAT 1,377 1,957 (29.6) 1,345 2.4Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2012, Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) reported consolidated net sales growth of

7.6% yoy. However, subdued performance from the aluminium segment dragged

the companys profitability. Adjusted PAT for the quarter decreased by 29.6% yoy.We recommend Accumulate on the stock.Top-line growth driven by zinc and power segments: For 4QFY2012, Sterlitesconsolidated net sales increased by 7.6% yoy to `10,763cr, in-line with our

estimate of `10,912cr. Net sales growth was driven by increase in power

segment sales (+230.4% yoy to`737cr).

Aluminium segment dents Sterlites profitability: Despite net sales growth of 7.6%yoy, Sterlites EBITDA decreased by 11.3% yoy to `2,705cr mainly due to a

decline in profits from the aluminium segment. EBIT of the aluminium segment

declined to `23cr in 4QFY2012 compared `195cr in 4QFY2011. Sterlites

associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of `542cr in 4QFY2012

(Sterlites share of loss `160cr) compared to loss of `268cr in 4QFY2011.Sterlite reported exceptional items related to net incidental damages payable to

Asarco of`423cr and exchange gain of `331cr in 4QFY2012. Adjusted net

profit decreased by 29.6% yoy to`1,377cr, in-line with our estimate of`1,311cr.

Outlook and valuation: We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion ofzinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2013-14. While we expect the aluminium

segments profitability to remain under pressure, the current stock price factors

these concerns. At the CMP, the stock is trading at an inexpensive valuation of

3.4x FY2013E and 2.7x FY2014E EV/EBITDA. Considering the ongoing process of

group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, valuation of Sterlite will

mirror the valuation of consolidated company, Sesa Sterlite. We value Sterlite at`123, based on the SOTP methodology and recommend Accumulate on the stock.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014ENet sales 30,248 40,967 45,805 49,029% chg 23.5 35.4 11.8 7.0

Net profit 5,043 4,921 5,553 6,434% chg 34.7 (2.4) 12.8 15.9

FDEPS (`) 14.3 15.5 16.5 19.1OPM (%) 26.0 24.3 21.2 23.5

P/E(x) 7.5 6.9 6.5 5.6

P/BV(x) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6

RoE(%) 12.9 11.1 11.5 12.0

RoCE(%) 11.5 11.9 9.6 10.5

EV/Sales (x) 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.5 3.6 3.4 2.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

ACCUMULATECMP `108

Target Price `123

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 53.3

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 9.5

FII / NRIs / OCBs 19.6

Indian Public / Others 17.6

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 0.9 (12.3) 51.4

STLT (3.0) (41.3) 8.4

52 Week High / Low 186/86

Base Metals

Market Cap (` cr) 36,227

Beta 1.4

Avg. Daily Volume 1,272,575

Face Value (`) 1

BSE Sensex 17,151

Nifty 5,202

Reuters Code STRL.BO

STLT@IN

Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821

[email protected]

Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841

[email protected]

Sterlite IndustriesPerformance Highlights

4QFY2012 Result Update | Base Metals

April 25, 2012


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Sterlite Industries | 4QFY2012 Result Update

April 25, 2012 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2012 performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY12 4QFY11 % yoy 3QFY12 % qoqNet Sales 10,763 10,000 7.6 10,246 5.0- Consumption of Raw Material 4,854 4,527 7.2 4,825 0.6(% of Net Sales) 45.1 45.3 47.1

- Power & Fuel 991 685 44.7 1,057 (6.2)

(% of Net Sales) 9.2 6.8 10.3

- Staff Costs 415 368 13.0 415 0.1

(% of Net Sales) 3.9 3.7 4.1

- Other expenses 1,854 1,426 30.0 1,592 16.4

(% of Net Sales) 17.2 14.3 15.5

Total Expenditure 8,113 7,005 15.8 7,890 2.8(% of Net Sales) 75.4 70.0 77.0

Operating income 56.1 55.9 0.5 57.5 (2.4)

EBITDA 2,705 3,051 (11.3) 2,414 12.1EBITDA margin (%) 25.1 30.5 23.6

Interest 328 118 157 108.5

Depreciation 507 352 44.1 458 10.9

Other Income 704 747 (5.8) 877 (19.8)

Exceptional Items (100) (32) (425)

Profit before Tax 2,473 3,296 (25.0) 2,155 14.8(% of Net Sales) 23.0 33.0 21.0

Tax 487 566 (14.1) 505 (3.7)

(% of PBT) 19.7 17.2 23.4

Profit after Tax 1,987 2,730 (27.2) 1,650 20.4Net profit 1,277 1,925 (33.7) 920 38.8Adj. net profit 1,377 1,957 (29.6) 1,345 2.4


Exhibit 2:4QFY2012 Actual vs. Angel estimates

(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net sales 10,763 10,912 (1.4)

EBITDA 2,705 2,488 8.7

EBITDA margin (%) 25.1 22.8 234bp

Adj. net profit 1,377 1,311 5.1



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April 25, 2012 3

4QFY2012 result highlights

For 4QFY2012, Sterlite reported consolidated net sales growth of 7.6% yoy to

`10,763cr, in-line with our estimate of `10,912cr, driven by higher net sales

power segment. Revenue of the power segment grew by 230.4% yoy to`737cr.

However, Sterlites EBITDA decreased by 11.3% yoy to`2,705cr. EBIT of the power

segments grew by 218.5% yoy to `151cr, respectively. However, EBIT of the

aluminium segment declined to `23cr in 4QFY2012 compared `195cr in

4QFY2011. Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of

`542cr in 4QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss `160cr) compared to loss of

`268cr in 4QFY2011.

The company reported exceptional items related to net incidental damages

payable to Asarco of `423cr and exchange gain of `331cr in 4QFY2012.

Excluding these exceptional items, adjusted net profit decreased by 29.6% yoy to`1,377cr, slightly above our estimate of `1,311cr. Reported net profit decreased

by 33.7% yoy to`1,277cr during the quarter.

Segmental performanceCopper segments TC/RCs increase by 36.8% yoyDuring 4QFY2012, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter was flat yoy

at 80k tonnes. Mined metal from the Australian mine was also flat yoy at 5k

tonnes. Thus, revenue of the copper segment increased marginally by 2.0% yoy to

`5,399cr during the quarter.

Copper TC/RCs increased by 36.8% yoy to USc15.3/lb. The company reported

cost of production of USc4.1lb in 4QFY2012 compared to USc1/lb in 4QFY2011.

The copper business had an exceptional item of`423cr related to an unfavorable

ruling by the U.S. court in connection with the cancellation of the share purchase

agreement entered with ASARCO in 2009.Consequently, the copper segmentsPAT decreased by 56.1% yoy to `139cr in 4QFY2012. However, PAT, excluding

exceptional item, increased by 15.4% to`404cr during the quarter.

Exhibit 3:Copper segments EBIT stood at`273


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)

(`cr)

EBIT (LHS) EBIT margins (RHS)


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April 25, 2012 4

Aluminium segments EBIT decreases on a yoy basis

During the quarter, Balcos aluminium production was flat on a yoy basis at 62kt,

while its revenue decreased by 4.6% yoy to`800cr.Aluminium cost of production

at Balco increased by 7.7% yoy to`96,857/tonne on account of higher prices

of alumina and coal. Consequently, the aluminium segments EBIT stood at`23cr

in 4QFY2012 compared to EBIT of`195cr in 4QFY2011.

Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium also reported loss of `542cr in

4QFY2012 (Sterlites share of loss `160cr) compared to loss of `268cr in

4QFY2011.

Exhibit 4:Aluminium segments EBIT declines to`23cr


Zinc-lead segments EBIT declines by 22.0% yoy

Refined zinc production for 4QFY2012 declined by 2.0% yoy to 190kt tonnes.

Refined lead production grew by 110.0% to 37kt and refined silver production

increased by 77.0% to 88k tonnes during the quarter.

Cost of production for zinc (excluding royalty) stood at US$828/tonne in

4QFY2012 compared to US$784/tonne in 4QFY2011. Overall, EBIT of the

zinc-lead segment (including international zinc business) declined by 22.0% yoy

to `1,705cr.

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)

(`cr)



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April 25, 2012 5

Exhibit 5:Zinc segments EBIT declines by 22.0% yoy


Investment rationale

Zinc-lead expansion to aid growth: Sterlite had commissioned a 100ktpa leadsmelter at Rajpura Dariba in 1QFY2012, the full benefits of which will be

witnessed in FY2013. Moreover, expansion at the silver-rich Sindesur Khurd mine

is expected to result in robust lead and silver sales volume growth in FY2013 and

FY2014.

SEL to reach full production capacity in FY2013: SELs fourth unit of 600MW hasbeen synchronized during 4QFY2012 and is likely to commence commercial

production from 2QFY2013, the benefits of which will be reflected in FY2014.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY12

3QFY12

4QFY12

(%)

(`cr)



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April 25, 2012 6

Valuation

We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity

during FY2013-14. Sterlites expansion in the silver-rich Sindesar Khurd mine is

expected to result in net profit growth of 6.3% in FY2013 and 15.9% in FY2014.

While we expect the aluminium segments profitability to remain under pressure,

the current stock price factors these concerns.

At the CMP, the stock is trading at an inexpensive valuation of 3.4x FY2013E and

2.7x FY2014E EV/EBITDA. Considering the ongoing process of group restructuring

by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation

of consolidated company, Sesa Sterlite. We value Sterlite at `123, based on theSOTP methodology and recommend Accumulate on the stock.

Exhibit 6:SOTP valuation of Sterlite (`cr)

Subsidiary Valuation technique Target multiple (x) Equity value % Stake ValueSterlite Industries EV/EBITDA 3.0 12,337 100% 12,337

Balco EV/EBITDA 3.0 1,888 51% 963

Vedanta Aluminium EV/EBITDA 4.0 (7,054) 100% (7,054)

Hindustan Zinc (20% holding company discount) EV/EBITDA 4.0 58,521 65% 30,384

Sterlite Energy FCFE 1.0 1,421 100% 1,421

Tasmania Copper mines P/BV 1.0 1,009 100% 1,009

International Zinc EV/EBITDA 2.0 2,948 100% 2,948

MALCO BV - - 100% 1,712

Sesa Goa EV/EBITDA 3.5 11,571 100% 11,571

Cairn India (20% holding company discount) DCF - 72,347 59% 34,032

less : Cairn debt (28,797)

Net equity value 60,526Fair value for Sesa Sterlite (`) 204Fair value for Sterlite (`) 123

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 7:EPS Angel forecast vs. consensus

Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2013E 16.5 17.9 (7.7)

FY2014E 19.1 20.0 (4.3)Source: Angel Research


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April 25, 2012 8

Exhibit 11:Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Hindalco 120 136 Accum. 22,945 14 7.9 6.9 0.7 0.6 5.2 4.9 8.7 9.2 6.7 7.2Nalco 60 51 Reduce 15,347 (14) 23.5 17.0 1.3 1.2 11.0 8.5 5.6 7.4 3.2 5.6

Sterlite 108 123 Buy 36,227 14 6.5 5.6 0.7 0.6 3.4 2.7 11.5 12.0 9.6 10.5HZL 126 139 Accum. 53,133 10 8.5 7.6 1.7 1.4 4.5 3.3 21.2 19.9 20.5 19.5

Source: Angel Research


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April 25, 2012 9

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014ENet Sales 21,144 24,501 30,248 40,967 45,805 49,029Other operating income - 182 180 212 - -Total operating income 21,144 24,682 30,429 41,179 45,805 49,029% chg (14.4) 16.7 23.3 35.3 11.2 7.0

Total Expenditure 16,440 18,207 22,379 31,010 36,085 37,512

Net Raw Materials 10,634 12,139 14,370 18,844 22,170 23,632

Other Mfg costs 5,050 5,214 6,877 10,554 11,992 11,821

Personnel 756 854 1,132 1,612 1,924 2,059

EBITDA 4,704 6,475 8,050 10,169 9,720 11,517% chg (40.2) 37.6 24.3 26.3 (4.4) 18.5

(% of Net Sales) 22.2 26.4 26.6 24.8 21.2 23.5

Depreciation& Amortization 701 750 1,030 1,830 2,116 2,406

EBIT 4,003 5,725 7,020 8,339 7,604 9,112% chg (45.0) 43.0 22.6 18.8 (8.8) 19.8

(% of Net Sales) 18.9 23.2 23.1 20.3 16.6 18.6

Interest & other Charges 397 292 351 852 1,066 1,101

Other Income 2,154 1,506 2,522 3,163 3,893 4,020

(% of PBT) 37.4 21.7 27.4 29.7 37.3 33.4

Recurring PBT 5,760 6,939 9,191 10,650 10,431 12,031% chg (32.4) 20.5 32.4 15.9 (2.1) 15.3

Extraordinary Inc/(Expense) 55 (297) (57) (473) - -

PBT (reported) 5,816 6,642 9,134 9,872 10,431 12,031Tax 855 1,233 1,812 2,111 2,295 2,647

(% of PBT) 14.7 18.6 19.8 21.4 22.0 22.0

PAT (reported) 4,961 5,409 7,322 7,761 8,136 9,384Add: Share of earnings of asso. (154) 59 (285) (772) (387) (323)

Less: Minority interest (MI) 1,267 1,724 1,995 2,161 2,197 2,628

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 3,540 3,744 5,043 4,828 5,553 6,434ADJ. PAT 3,493 3,986 5,088 5,225 5,553 6,434% chg (21.3) 14.1 27.7 2.7 6.3 15.9

(% of Net Sales) 16.5 16.1 16.7 12.7 12.1 13.1

Basic EPS (`) 12.3 11.9 15.0 14.4 16.5 19.1Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 12.3 11.9 14.3 15.5 16.5 19.1% chg (21.3) (3.8) 20.8 8.5 6.3 15.9


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April 25, 2012 10

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 142 168 336 336 336 336Reserves& Surplus 25,471 36,844 41,100 45,409 50,312 55,993

Shareholders Funds 25,613 37,012 41,436 45,745 50,648 56,329Minority Interest 6,813 8,410 10,291 12,452 14,649 17,277

Total Loans 7,014 9,260 11,729 14,729 15,229 15,729

Deferred Tax Liability 1,408 1,552 2,174 2,174 2,174 2,174

Total Liabilities 40,847 56,234 65,629 75,100 82,700 91,508APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 15,387 18,179 31,189 36,689 43,189 51,189

Less: Acc. Depreciation 5,155 5,913 9,791 11,621 13,737 16,143

Net Block 10,232 12,266 21,397 25,068 29,451 35,045Capital Work-in-Progress 6,979 11,084 12,150 12,050 10,050 8,050

Investments 16,206 20,304 12,955 12,955 12,955 12,955

Current Assets 11,636 17,511 27,939 35,695 42,202 47,872Cash 5,505 3,338 9,912 15,114 20,198 25,369

Loans & Advances 2,715 10,499 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277

Other 3,416 3,674 6,750 9,303 10,727 11,226

Current liabilities 4,205 4,932 8,813 10,668 11,959 12,414Net Current Assets 7,431 12,580 19,126 25,027 30,243 35,458Total Assets 40,847 56,234 65,629 75,100 82,700 91,508


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April 25, 2012 11

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014EProfit before tax 5,816 6,460 8,849 9,965 10,431 12,031

Depreciation 701 750 1,030 1,830 2,116 2,406Change in Working Capital 1,244 (7,316) (315) (698) (133) (43)

Others (1,421) (1,483) (1,974) - - -

Direct taxes paid 855 1,233 1,735 2,111 2,295 2,647

Cash Flow from Operations 5,484 (2,822) 5,855 8,986 10,120 11,747(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (5,340) (6,898) (5,349) (5,400) (4,500) (6,000)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 88 (4,098.3) 8,964 - - -

Cash Flow from Investing (5,252) (10,996) (885) (5,400) (4,500) (6,000)Issue of Equity - 7,653 - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 1,939 2,246 2,563 3,000 500 500

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 248 449 502 611 650 753

Others (1,128) (2,201) (457) - - -

Share of loss from Asso. - - - (772) (387) (323)

Cash Flow from Financing 2,819 11,651 1,604 1,616 (537) (575)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 3,051 (2,167) 6,575 5,202 5,083 5,171

Opening Cash balances 2,454 5,505 3,338 9,912 15,114 20,198Closing Cash balances 5,505 3,338 9,912 15,114 20,198 25,369


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April 25, 2012 12

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 8.8 9.1 7.5 6.9 6.5 5.6P/CEPS 7.3 7.7 5.9 5.1 4.7 4.1

P/BV 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6

Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1

EV/Sales 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6

EV/EBITDA 4.8 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.4 2.7

EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 12.3 11.9 15.0 14.4 16.5 19.1

EPS (fully diluted) 12.3 11.9 14.3 15.5 16.5 19.1

Cash EPS 14.8 14.1 18.2 21.0 22.8 26.3

DPS 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2

Book Value 90.4 110.1 123.3 136.1 150.7 167.6

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 18.9 23.2 23.1 20.3 16.6 18.6

Tax retention ratio (%) 85.3 81.4 80.2 78.6 78.0 78.0

Asset turnover (x) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8

ROIC (Post-tax) 12.0 11.2 12.9 13.7 11.3 12.2

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.6 2.9 2.7 - - -

Leverage (x) 0.0 0.1 0.0 - - -

Operating ROE 12.2 12.2 13.1 13.7 11.3 12.2

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 10.6 11.8 11.5 11.9 9.6 10.5

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 13.9 16.3 16.4 18.2 15.1 16.5

ROE 14.6 12.7 13.0 12.0 11.5 12.0

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0

Inventory / Sales (days) 54 59 83 83 83 83

Receivables (days) 15 8 19 19 19 19

Payables (days) 52 57 89 89 89 89

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 44 83 111 85 80 75

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.0 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (0.1) (0.2)

Net debt to EBITDA 0.1 0.7 0.1 (0.2) (0.5) (0.9)

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 10.1 19.6 20.0 9.8 7.1 8.3


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A il 25 2012 13

Disclosure of Interest Statement Sterlite Industries

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMERThis document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make

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referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and

risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make

investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

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sterlite industries result updated

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