steve heminger executive director, mtc national stone, sand & gravel association san francisco,...
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Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTC
National Stone, Sand & Gravel Association
San Francisco, CA
February 27, 2007
CommissionersCommissionersMary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson
Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice Chair
Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation
Maria Cino Deputy Secretary of Transportation
Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University
Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York
Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot
Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association
Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad
Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company
Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation
Statutory MandateStatutory Mandate
• Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation system
• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax
• Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons
• Report to Congress by January 1,2008
Field HearingsField Hearings
• September 20-21, 2006 Dallas, TX
• November 15–16, 2006 New York, NYMemphis, TN
• February 21–22, 2007 Los Angeles, CAAtlanta, GA
• April 18–19, 2007 Chicago, ILMinneapolis, MN
System MaintenanceSystem Maintenance
89% 91% 91% 91%
39%48% 50% 52%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1997 2000 2002 2004
AcceptableGood
Pavement Ride QualityPavement Ride QualityNational Highway System for 2004
Source: U.S. DOT
Bridge ConditionsBridge Conditions
13.1%13.7%
14.8%16.0%
17.4%18.7%
13.6%
13.8% 14.0% 13.6% 13.8%
13.8%
26.7%27.5%
28.5%29.6%
31.4%32.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Structurally Deficient
Functionally Obsolete
Total Deficiencies
Bridge Deficiency Percentages
Source: U.S. DOT
Transit System ConditionsTransit System Conditions
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1997 2000 2002 2004
Bus VehiclesRail Vehicles
RA
TIN
G (
1 =
Poo
r, 5
= E
xcel
lent
)
Source: U.S. DOT
3.48 3.38 3.47 3.50
2.88 2.94 3.05 3.07 3.08
3.42
Traffic CongestionTraffic Congestion
Highway Operational PerformanceHighway Operational PerformancePercent VMT Under Congested Conditions
25.9%27.5%
29.6% 30.7% 31.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1995 1997 2000 2002 2004
Source: U.S. DOT
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
Nearly half of the growth in total Transit Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from the Heavy Rail mode.
MotorbusHeavy
RailCommuter
RailLightRail
DemandResponse
Vanpool Ferryboat
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Source: U.S. DOT
Growth in Transit RidershipGrowth in Transit Ridership23% Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to
2004
SafetySafety
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities
Per 100 Million VMT
Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
Safety: Transit FatalitiesSafety: Transit FatalitiesFatalities per 100 Million
PMT
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode
248 Total Transit
Fatalities in 2004
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
MotorbusHeavy
RailCommuter
Rail Light Rail
Source: U.S. DOT
Source: U.S. DOT
FreightFreight
1,4371,437
6,1656,165
(TEUs in thousands)
20202020
20042004
HoustonHouston
13,10113,101
LA/LBLA/LB1,0101,0102,15
22,152
MiamiMiami
2,0432,0433,3823,382
OaklandOakland
4,4784,478
15,83515,835
NY/NJNY/NJ
1,8091,809
5,5665,566
VirginiaVirginia
1,8601,860
6,6396,639
CharlestonCharleston
1,6621,662
9,4209,420
SavannahSavannah
1,7981,7984,3964,396
TacomaTacoma
1,7761,776 2,5572,557
SeattleSeattle
59,42059,420
Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020
Source: U.S. DOT
Truck Rail Water Air Total
More trade means more domesticfreight movements…
More trade means more domesticfreight movements…
West region +65%
South region +71%
Central
region +71%
Northeast region +58%
U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020
U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020
20202020
20002000
% change 2000-2020% change 2000-2020
62% 44% 39% 181% 57%
10,70010,700
17,29617,296
2,0092,009
2,8912,891
1,0541,054
1,4701,470
13,77213,772
21,68221,682
992525
Source: U.S. DOT
(tons in millions)
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4%1%
9%
3% 2% 0%
7%3% 1%
40%
74%
67%
16%
40%
6%<1%<1%
6%2%
13%
3%
Tons Value Ton-Miles
Perc
en
t
s
TruckRailWaterAirPipeline
Multiple ModesOther/Unknown Modes
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.
Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value
commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned
Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads
Rail Network TodayRail Network TodayToday’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a
core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design
Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)
Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)
Sources: Environmental Protection Agency; Energy Information Administration
Ho
rsep
ow
er
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1997 19961995
1994 19931992 1991
1990 19891988
19871986
19851984
19831982
1981
1998
2004
20032002
20012000
1999
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
00 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Miles per Gallon
59 percent more energy performance
52 percentmore output
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles
1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG
International Fuel Economy Comparison
International Fuel Economy Comparison
Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles
Sou
rce:
UC
Berk
ele
y
FinanceFinance
Estimated Highway and Transit Program Levels and HTF Account
Balances*
Estimated Highway and Transit Program Levels and HTF Account
Balances*
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Do
lla
rs (
in B
illi
on
s)
Highway Program
Highway Balance
Transit Program
Transit Balance
* Based on President’s 2006 Budget and 2006 Budget Mid Session Review revenue estimates
Assuming Level Funding After 2009
Year
600
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015)
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year
Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015)
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Year-
of-
Expendit
ure
Dolla
rs (
in B
illio
ns)
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015)
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year
Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)
(through 2015) Revenue
Cost toMaintain
Cost toImprove
National Funding GapNational Funding Gap
Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding…
Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding…
18.3
16.2
14.0
12.2
5
10
15
20
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Cen
ts p
er G
allo
n
201020082006200420022000199819961994
Source: AASHTO
Street and highway construction costs have increased dramatically over the past few years
* Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty years as indexed
…While Construction Costs Are Increasing
…While Construction Costs Are Increasing
State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum
Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax
State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum
Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax
State
Cents per Gallon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NY CT MI NV FL RI IN OH ME WV ID OR SD MD ND MN IA NH DC TX VI MS NM OK NJ AK
CA IL WI PA HI WA NC MT NE GA KS UT MA DE CO AR TN AL LA VT AZ KY MO SC WY
Excise MFT
Additional MFT
Source: American Petroleum Institute
As of April 2006
Recent Public Private PartnershipsRecent Public Private Partnerships
Source: Public Works Financing
Project Location
Intermodal Projects in Green
Highway Projects in Blue
Transit Projects in Yellow
Reno RailCorridor
SR 125Toll Road
-Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line
Chicago SkywayAsset Sale
Dulles Greenway
Miami Intermodal Center
Central TexasTurnpike
PocahontasParkway
Camden Trenton Light Rail Line
San Joaquin HillsToll Road
Foothill EasternToll Road
Alameda Corridor
-Trans TexasCorridor
Denver E-470NorthwestParkway
NM 44 (US 550)
Southern Connector
Hiawatha Light Rail Line
Jamaica JFK Airtrain
Tacoma NarrowsBridge
Osceola Parkway
Las Vegas Monorail
I-15 Reconstruction
AZ-17
Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale
CREATE
