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Oklahoma 5th Congressional District Poll Results Russell 41%, Douglas 31% (28% Undecided)

POLLING METHODOLOGY Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but we are generally comfortable with a

“likely voter” model (as opposed to a “registered voter” model) for most elections. For this poll, we chose a sample

of registered Republicans in the 5th Congressional District of Oklahoma who have demonstrated a tendency to

participate in Republican primary/ies for an automated poll. There were 419 completed responses to eight poll

questions.

The survey was conducted July 8. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.8%. The gender of

the respondents was 54-46% female/male, and the geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 91%

from Oklahoma County, 6% from Pottawatomie County, and 3% from Seminole County.

POLL RESULTS

Question 1: With which part of the Republican Party do you most closely identify?

Traditional Republican 67%

TEA Party Republican 25%

Libertarian Republican 8%

Question 2: Are you male or female?

Female 54%

Male 46%

Question 3: What is the likelihood that you will vote in the Republican primary runoff election on August 26?

(Those selecting “unlikely” and “extremely unlikely” excluded from the remainder of the poll)

Extremely Likely 78%

Likely 8%

Unlikely 3%

Extremely Unlikely 3%

Undecided 8%

Question 4: The Republican primary runoff election is August 26, and the only candidates are Steve Russell and

Patrice Douglas. For whom will you vote?

Steve Russell 41%

Patrice Douglas 31%

Undecided 28%

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Question 5: Of the following issues, which one is most important to you?

Federal debt 46%

Healthcare/Obamacare 35%

Abortion/pro-life issues 9%

Agriculture 5%

Guns 5%

Question 6: Which of the following age ranges do you fit within?

66 and above 71%

51-65 21%

36-50 5%

18-35 2%

CROSSTABS

Question 4 – Ballot test

Gender

Description Male Female

Douglas 30% 31%

Russell 43% 39%

Undecided 27% 30%

Candidate Preference By Ideology

Description Libertarian Tea

Party Traditional Republican

Douglas 26% 19% 37%

Russell 52% 53% 37%

Undecided 23% 28% 25%

Comments:

There is a moderate (5%) gender gap, but Russell still leads among both men and women. If we were to

weight the results to 54-46% male (like the population of registered Republicans), the ballot test results do

not change;

Russell’s support is bolstered by his support from Libertarian/TEA Party Republicans. Traditional

Republicans are more evenly split.