stock investment tips recommendation - buy stock swaraj engines, kolte-patil developers, kalpatru...

21
Kolte-Patil Developers: "On track to meet FY14 guidence" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15E respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment. ............. ............. ( Page : 4-5) "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%. So taking all this into consideration share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one can expect growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised price target to Rs 648 .................... ............. ( Page :2-3) SWARAJ ENGINES: "Long term fundamental continue to remains intact " Godrej Consumer Product :" Strategy Shining" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by 18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported growth across all geographies and segments, respectively. With launching new products in domestic as well as international market, Godrej CP will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs. ............. ........................... ...... ( Page : 10 -12) Kalpatru Power Transmission : "Missed one……." "BUY" 4th Feb 2014 At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue growth, we revise revenue estimates for FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone EBIDTA margins as wel l to 9.7% for FY14 and 10. 0% for FY15. Hen ce, we maintain "Buy"r ating wit h target price at Rs.95 /share. ............. ................................... ( Page : 6-9) Sesa Sterlite Ltd : "NEUTRAL" 4th Feb 2014 Marico : " Volume slows…" "NEUTRAL" 3th Feb 2014 Beats the street on profitability and Margin front with poor volume growth;Marico witnessed better numbers than expectation with 10% sales growth (excluding Kaya Sales) led by 3% volume growth on YoY basis. We believe that slower volume growth could not easily turned out in next 1-2 quarters because of poor disc retionary demand environment . Therefore, we downgrade our view from "BUY" to "NEUTRAL". ............. .......................................................... ( Page : 18-20) HEROMOTOCO: Average Sales with Flat Profits Growth.. "BUY" 3th Feb 2014 The compan y register ed its 3QFY 14 net sales at Rs 6846 Cr up by 11.3% YoY led by heal thy volume growth of 7% for the period under re view. The company during 3QFY14 sold 1680940 units inclu ding exports. The volume perfo rmance was led by a strong 7.8% YoY growth in the domestic segment. ............................................................. ........ ( Page : 16-17) Vedanta group firm Sesa Sterlite reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,868.29 crore for the Q3FY14.The company, previously known as Sesa Goa, had reported a net profit of Rs 496.73 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.During the quarter, its net sales stood at Rs 19,414.34 crore .The company has resumed iron ore mining operations in Karnataka , 2013 where it has 2.29mn tonne per annum capacity .We value the stock using forward P/B and here by we recomend Neutral rating on the stock at a target price of Rs.196 from current market price of Rs.185 ......................................... ....... ( Page : 13-15) 4th Feb, 2014 Edition : 198 IEA-Equity Strategy Narnolia Securities Ltd, India Equity Analytics  aily Fundame ntal Report on Indian Eq uitie s

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Page 1: Stock Investment Tips Recommendation - Buy Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Transmission, Godrej Consumer Product

8/13/2019 Stock Investment Tips Recommendation - Buy Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Tra…

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Kolte-Patil Developers: "On track to meet FY14 guidence" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014

At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E i

seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15

respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock

expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely t

continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a targe

price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment. .......................... ( Page : 4-5)

"BUY" 4th Feb 2014

At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue

growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further andcapable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%

So taking all this into consideration share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one can expec

growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revise

price target to Rs 648 ................................. ( Page :2-3)

SWARAJ ENGINES: "Long term fundamental continue to remains intact "

Godrej Consumer Product :" Strategy Shining" "BUY" 4th Feb 2014

For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by 18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported

growth across all geographies and segments, respectively. With launching new products in domestic as well as international market, Godrej C

will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs

.............................................. ( Page : 10 -12)

Kalpatru Power Transmission : "Missed one……." "BUY" 4th Feb 2014

At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue growth, we revise revenue estimates fo

FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalon

EBIDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating with target price at Rs.95/shar

................................................ ( Page : 6-9)

Sesa Sterlite Ltd : "NEUTRAL" 4th Feb 2014

Marico : " Volume slows…" "NEUTRAL" 3th Feb 2014

Beats the street on profitability and Margin front with poor volume growth;Marico witnessed better numbers than expectation with 10% sale

growth (excluding Kaya Sales) led by 3% volume growth on YoY basis. We believe that slower volume growth could not easily turned out in nex

1-2 quarters because of poor discretionary demand environment. Therefore, we downgrade our view from "BUY" to "NEUTRAL

....................................................................... ( Page : 18-20)

HEROMOTOCO: Average Sales with Flat Profits Growth.. "BUY" 3th Feb 2014

The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 6846 Cr up by 11.3% YoY led by healthy volume growth of 7% for the period under review

The company during 3QFY14 sold 1680940 units including exports. The volume performance was led by a strong 7.8% YoY growth in th

domestic segment. ..................................................................... ( Page : 16-17)

Vedanta group firm Sesa Sterlite reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,868.29 crore for the Q3FY14.The company, previously known as Ses

Goa, had reported a net profit of Rs 496.73 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.During the quarter, its net sales stood at R

19,414.34 crore .The company has resumed iron ore mining operations in Karnataka , 2013 where it has 2.29mn tonne per annum capacity .W

value the stock using forward P/B and here by we recomend Neutral rating on the stock at a target price of Rs.196 from current market price

Rs.185 ................................................ ( Page : 13-15)

4th Feb, 201

Edition : 198

IEA-Equity

Strategy

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

India Equity Analytics  aily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

Page 2: Stock Investment Tips Recommendation - Buy Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Transmission, Godrej Consumer Product

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-  SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

MP 598

rget Price 648600

side 8%

7%

E Code 500407

E Symbol

742

601

fty 6,002

1M 1yr YTD

solute (6.6) 24.3 51.4

l. to Nifty (2.3) 24.7 45.3

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

omoters 50.6 50.6 50.6

1.9 1.9 1.5

10.6 10.4 10.6

hers 36.9 37.1 37.3 Valuations :

Financials Rs, Crore3QFY14A 2QFY14A (Var)-% 3QFY13A (YoY)-%

Revenue   150.2 151.6 -0.9% 124.6 21.7%

EBITDA   21.8 22.7 -3.8% 18.4 23.3%

PAT   15.6 17.2 -9.5% 13.8 24.9%

EBITDA Margin   14.5% 14.9% (40) bps 14.8% (30) bp

PAT Margin 10.8% 11.0% (20) bps 10.7% 10 bp

arket Data

382/535

" Long term fundamental continue to remains intact…. " 

Accumulateesult update

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

wk Range H/L

evious Target Price

SWARAJENG

ange from Previous

Swaraj Engines posted a moderate revenue growth of 20.8% to Rs. 150.2 crore during Q3FY

over corresponding period of previous year due to 21.2% growth yoy reported in diesel engi

sales volume. Company sold 18,530 diesel engines during the quarter as compared to 15,

engines sold during corresponding period of previous year. EBITDA of the company margin

outpaced by the revenue due to unexpected rise in non operating expenses and stands at

21.8 crore up by 18.6% yoy. Though company managed to control material cost, wh

constitutes ~90% of the total expenses; however, employee cost and administration expen

reported the growth of 22.1% and 23.9% respectively during the quarter. As a result, EBIT

and PBT margin reported a marginal deterioration of 24bps and 5bps during Q3FY14 y

respectively. PAT reflected in-line numbers and reported the yoy growth of 21.4% to Rs. 1

crore before extra ordiniary item of Rs. 1.15 crore; while PAT margin improved by 5bps.

We have modeled a 25% of revenue growth for FY15 yoy respectively, due to SWE’s ability

maintain growth in product volume and recent enhancement in annual production capacity fr

75,000 units to 105,000 units. Company currently operates at TTM EBITDA and net margin

14.8% and 11.3% respectively, which provides sufficient cushion against operating cost. W

liquidity being moderate and cash flow positive, company has enough cash to finance

expansion plan of Rs. 38 crore through internal accruals.

Outlook :

Leading supplier to Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd – A key source to growth: SEL enjoys the access

the India’s largest tractor manufacturer “M&M” (41% market share in Domestic tractor indust

which has a holding of 33% in SEL. Swaraj Engines Ltd manufactures tractor engines solely for

“Swaraj Division” of M&M. It caters to ~80% demand of Swaraj division of M&M and rest 20%

demand is met through Kirloskar Oil Engines, which has a holding of 17% in SEL. The dema

from M&M is estimated to grow further and reach ~85‐90%.

Leading supplier to Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd :

are Holding Pattern-%

ock Performance-%

erage Daily Volume

(Standalone) (Source: Company/Eastwind Resea

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

yr Forward P/B

At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS

INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 2

post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and capa

of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of INR58crore, the company

strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% divide

payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%. So taking all this into considerat

share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and o

can expect growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade

rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised price target to Rs 648.

"Accumulate"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 3: Stock Investment Tips Recommendation - Buy Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Transmission, Godrej Consumer Product

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9

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

mmount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.

y financials :

urce: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

ARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

erformance

evenue 208 282 361 449 479 602 750

ther Income 5 10 8 12 15 18 20

otal Income 213 292 369 461 494 620 770

BITDA 32 50 61 69 71 87 109

BIT 27 45 56 65 64 78 98

EPRICIATION 5 5 4 4 7 9 11

TREST COST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

BT 32 55 64 77 79 96 118

AX 11 17 20 24 24 30 37

eported PAT 21 37 44 53 55 66 81

vidend 7 12 14 19 48 24 30

PS 17.2 30.1 35.4 42.5 44.6 53.5 65.4PS 5.9 9.3 11.6 15.1 38.4 19.3 24.2

eild %

BITDA % 15.3% 17.6% 16.8% 15.5% 14.9% 14.5% 14.5%

BT % 15.1% 18.7% 17.4% 16.8% 16.1% 16.0% 15.7%

PM % 10.0% 12.8% 11.9% 11.5% 11.2% 11.0% 10.8%

arning Yeild % 8.0% 31.6% 12.2% 9.9% 11.3% 9.0% 10.9%

vidend Yeild % 2.7% 9.8% 4.0% 3.5% 9.7% 3.2% 4.0%

OE % 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.1% 28.3%

OCE% 21.9% 30.4% 28.8% 28.4% 28.6% 28.1% 28.3%

osition

et Worth 97 123 152 186 194 236 287

o of Share 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

MP 214 95 290 429 395 598 598

aluation

ook Value 78.3 98.8 122.6 150.0 156.0 190.2 231.5

/B 2.7 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.5 3.1 2.6

/E 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.8 11.2 9.1

et Sales/Equity 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6

Page 4: Stock Investment Tips Recommendation - Buy Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Transmission, Godrej Consumer Product

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-  Kolte-Patil Develo ers Ltd.

MP 74

rget Price 100120

side 35%

0%

E Code 532924

E Symbol

558

239,587

fty 6,002

1M 1yr YTD

solute (18.8) (36.6) (16.3)

l. to Nifty (14.5) (36.3) (22.4)

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

omoters 74.5 74.5 74.5

1.4 1.4 1.5

0.4 0.8 0.5

hers 23.8 23.5 23.5 Valuations

Financials Rs, Crore3QFY14 2QFY14 (Var)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue   188.1 188.6 -0.3% 225.4 -16.5%

EBITDA   57.3 60.3 -5.0% 62.9 -9.0%

PAT   20.4 32.2 -36.7% 30.6 -33.2%

EBITDA Margin   30.4% 32.0% (160) bps 27.9% 252 bp

PAT Margin 15.8% 18.3% (250) bps 16.6% (80) bp

arket Data

(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)

erage Daily Volume

esult update

"On track to meet FY14 guidence.........." 

The company posted de-growth in its revenue and net profit during the third quar

compared to same period last year. KPD's net revenue for Q3FY14 dipped to Rs 188 cr

against Rs 225 crore in Q3FY13. The company's net profit also decreased to Rs 20.40 crore

Q3FY14 against Rs 30.52 crore in Q3FY13. However, the company's net revenues for first n

months for FY14 grew by 15 per cent to Rs 593 crore against Rs 518 crore in 9MFY

Interestingly the company's EBITDA soared up by 45 per cent to Rs 181 crore in 9MFY14

yearly basis. This has improved its EBITDA margins by 630 basis points on yearly basis. The P

stood at Rs 79 crore in 9MFY14 against the PAT during same period in last financial year. Ba

on revised volume guidence by management in range of 1.8-2.0mnsft, we cut our FY14/FY

earnings by 5%/8% while maintaining BUY with a revised TP of Rs 100 (Rs 120 earlier)

Buy

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

ange from Previous

evious Target Price

KOLTEPATIL

yr Forward P/B

At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of

company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively.

Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-1

respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x

FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY

and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue

the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy

this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment.

New sales booking recorded in Q3FY14 is 0.44 msf of which about 93% is residential and

commercial projects. The sales value was worth Rs 253 crore. The Average price realization (A

for the quarter stood at Rs 5730/sft with average price for residential project stood at

5421/sft and that for commercial project at Rs 9932/sft. The ongoing projects as end of Dec 20

have a saleable area is 14.1 msf (KPDL's share is 9.3 msf) and of which the company already sabout 7.8 msf with a sale value of Rs 3157.7 crore. Cumulative collection as end of Dec 2013

case of ongoing projects is about Rs 2442.7 crore and the collection in Q3FY14 stood at Rs 2

crore. In January 2014 launched 0.2 msf (of total saleable area of 0.9 msf) of Jazz Phase I

Aundh. Jan 2, 2014 the company obtained final approval and started pre launch activity a

made 34 units as far as 0.6 msf Mirabilis, Horamavu, Bengaluru project. Gross debt exclud

compulsory convertible debentures (CCD) is Rs 205 crore and the net debt is Rs 127 crore.

Q3FY14 recorded its first sale in Mumbai of 2,200 sft. at an APR of Rs 34375/sft.

Management Guidence

Management is hopeful of achiveing a topline target of Rs. 800-900 crore for FY14E and new a

sales booking of 1.8 - 2 msf for FY2014 with average price realization of Rs 5300/sft.

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

wk Range H/L 49/115

are Holding Pattern-%

ock Performance-%

"Buy"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Page 5: Stock Investment Tips Recommendation - Buy Stock SWARAJ ENGINES, Kolte-Patil Developers, Kalpatru Power Transmission, Godrej Consumer Product

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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

mmount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Kolte-Patil Develo ers Ltd.

y financials :

urce: Eastwind Research) (Figures in crore)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

ARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

erformance

evenue 186 148 204 249 743 825 908

ther Income 50 5 5 10 7 7 18

otal Income 236 153 209 260 750 832 925

BITDA 85 58 91 68 201 248 272

BIT 84 57 89 66 196 240 265

EPRICIATION 1 2 2 2 5 8 8

TREST COST 8 8 7 24 42 46 46

BT 126 54 87 50 160 201 237

AX 40 16 30 14 55 69 81

eported PAT 9 36 61 82 108 132 155

vidend 8 8 12 12 30 30 30

PS 11.5 5.0 7.5 4.7 16.4 17.4 20.5

PS 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6 4.0 4.0 4.0

eild %

BITDA % 45.8% 39.5% 44.4% 27.2% 26.4% 30.0% 30.0%

PM % 36.7% 24.7% 27.3% 13.8% 16.2% 15.9% 16.8%

arning Yei ld % 58.0% 9.3% 16.4% 12.1% 18.4% 23.7% 27.9%

vidend Yeild % 5.1% 1.9% 3.5% 4.1% 4.5% 5.4% 5.4%

OE % 13.2% 5.6% 8.2% 5.0% 17.3% 16.1% 16.4%

OCE% 10.6% 4.6% 6.5% 3.8% 13.9% 12.3% 13.0%

osition

et Worth 657 675 700 721 717 819 944

otal Debt 159 150 175 226 173 250 250

apital Employed 816 824 874 947 891 1069 1194

o of Share 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

MP 20 54 46 39 89 74 74

aluation

ook Value 87.2 89.4 92.3 95.2 94.6 108.1 124.6

/B 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.6

t/Coverage 11.2 6.8 13.1 2.7 5.1 5.2 5.8/E 1.7 10.8 6.1 8.3 5.4 4.2 3.6

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Kal atru Power Transmission

esult

MP 73

rget Price 95evious 120

side 30%

ange from -21%

arket Data

E Code 522287

E Symbol

wk Range 64/105

kt Capital 1201

erage Daily 48500 JMC Projects EBITDA margins improve to 5.1%, PAT up 75.6% yoy to Rs.31.4mn:

fty 6002

1M 1yr YTD

solute -18 -25 -11

l. to Nifty (13) (24) (17) Standalone Performance for nine months ended Dec 2013

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

omoters 59 59 58

9.7 9.9 10.9

23.2 23.4 23.2

hers 7.6 7.3 7.8

Financials Rs, Crore

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%Revenue   1051.3 962.2 9.3 889.7 18.2

EBITDA   94.0 91.1 3.2 88.6 6.2

PAT   33.7 31.0 8.7 35.1 -4.1

EBITDA Margin   8.9% 9.5% (60) bps 10.0% 110 bp

PAT Margin 3.2% 3.2% 0 bps 3.9% (70) bp

(Standalone)

Kalpataru Power Transmission reported a 18% growth in standalone net sales to Rs 1051

crore. The growth was driven by Transmission business, which constitute about 96% of to

sales and was up by 25% YoY to Rs 1007.22 crore. Infrastructure segment comprisingRailways and Pipeline execution reported a 61% fall in net sales to Rs 28.05 crore largely due

lower execution and excessive rainfall in Eastern region of the country. Other segme

comprising of Biogas reported a 6% growth in net sales to Rs 16.07 crore. OPM was down

110 bps to 8.9%. While there was a better execution of Transmission sector business includ

higher execution of export orders having better margins, continued losses in Infrastruct

segment resulted in fall in OPM. The PBIT of Transmission business stood at Rs 89.51 cro

with PBIT margin of about 9%, where as Infrastructure business reported loss of about Rs 15

crore as compared to profit of Rs 5 lakh for Dec'12 quarter. The Other segment PBIT was do

by 11% to Rs 1.80 crore. Thus overall OP was up by 6% to Rs 94.04 crore.

"Missed one……." 

KALPATPOWR

Buy

ock Performance-%

(Source: Company/Eastwin

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

yr Forward P/B

are Holding Pattern-%

Kalpataru Power Transmission reported a 26% growth in standalone net sales to Rs 2903.14 cro

for the nine months ended Dec'13 period. The growth was driven by Transmission busine

which constitute about 94% of total sales and was up by 33% YoY to Rs 2720.41 cro

Infrastructure segment comprising of Railways and Pipeline execution reported a 36% fall in n

sales to Rs 138.48 crore largely due to lower execution and excessive rainfall in Eastern region

the country. Other segment comprising of Biogas reported a 13% growth in net sales to Rs 44.

crore.

OPM was down by 30 bps to 9.5%. While there was a better execution of Transmission sect

business including higher execution of export orders having better margins, continued losses

Infrastructure segment resulted in fall in OPM The PBIT of Transmission business stood at

259.25 crore with PBIT margin of about 9.5%, improvement of 60 bps YoY, where

Infrastructure business reported loss of about Rs 36.48 crore as compared to profit of Rs 5

crore for nine months ended Dec'12 period. The Other segment PBIT was stood at Rs 3.49 cro

as compared to Rs 0.47 crore for nine months ended Dec'12 period. Thus overall OP was up

23% to Rs 277.15 crore.

Other income was up by 10% to Rs 37.80 crore. Interest was up by about 24% to Rs 114.26 cro

and depreciation was up by 35% to Rs 51.33 crore, after which the PBT was up by 16% to

149.36 crore. After rovidin total tax of Rs 50 crore u b 25% YoY standalone PAT for nine

Standalone PAT grew by 75.1% yoy to Rs.58.3mn upon 8.8% yoy growth in income fr

operations to Rs.6651mn, better than our PAT and revenue estimates of Rs.32.1 and Rs.6426m

Robust execution of better margin factories and buildings orders and cost optimizat

measures,led 40 bps yoy increase in EBITDA margins to5.1%,

"Buy"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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ealthy order book:

PGCIL has changed its model on bidding as PGCIL itself needs to be now competitive for winning

ture bids. Competition continues to remain as it is, although everybody has become cautious.

anagement expects good orders from PGCIL in Mar'14 quarter, which is the normal trend.

nfrastructure segment comprising of railways and pipelines continue to report losses due to

wer execution, delays for some projects due to ROW issues and high and extended rainfall in

stern region of India, where the company has maximum orders.

nfrastructure business has an order book of around Rs 420 crore of which 80% are legacy

ders. Management expects legacy orders to end by 2 more quarters after which better margins

d better results within the sector will come in. Railways are not making any money and it's been

ry disappointing with not much to bid in and legacy orders hurting the margins.

About 50% of order book is from Government contracts in JMC Projects and rests are private. Q4

l see some more margin improvement due to better execution. Margin improvement of about

-75 bps will continue in FY'15 for JMC Projects.

Overall, the management expects to end the year with a 20% net sales growth for FY'14 for KPTL

d about 15% for FY'15. Margins will hover around 10-10.5% for transmission business segment.

Company has standalone debt of abut Rs 650 crore which it expects to bring down by about Rs

0 crore by end of FY'14. Average interest costs is about 10.5%. Consolidated debt is about Rs

00 crore.

nsolidated order book as end of Dec 2013 was above Rs 12500 crore and of which KPTL's was Rs

00 crore and that of JMC Project's was Rs 5500 crore. JMC received new order worth Rs 880

ore in Q3 FY'14. About 54% of order book of Transmission business was from internationalarkets. About 50% of order book is from Government contracts in JMC Projects and rests are

vate.

CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue

owth, we revise revenue estimates for FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of 

ntinued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone

IDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating

th target price at Rs.95/share.

utlook:

Kal atru Power Transmission.

oncall Highlights:

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ory in graphs :

&D Revenue (INR) & T&D EBIT (%) (Q-o-Q) :

ndalone, INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

venue (Q-o-Q) :

Kal atru Power Transmission.

argin % (Q-o-Q) :

ndalone, INR in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

R in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

st % of revenue :

st as a % of sales (Q-o-Q) :

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

urce: Eastwind Research)

R in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Kal atru Power Transmission.

y financials :

(Figures in crore)

mount in crores (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

ARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

erformance

evenue 3246 4032 4363 5308 6085 7210 8166

ther Income 35 25 31 33 36 30 30

otal Income 3281 4057 4394 5341 6121 7240 8196

BITDA 329 448 464 500 475 584 692

BIT 272 373 376 402 352 445 525

EPRICIATION 58 75 88 99 122 139 167

NTREST COST 137 126 117 158 194 263 263

BT 170 272 291 277 194 212 293

AX 42 69 79 73 60 65 90

eported PAT 128 203 211 204 135 147 203vidend 23 23 27 27 27 27 27

PS 9.7 15.3 13.8 13.3 8.8 9.6 13.2

PS 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

eild %

BITDA % 10.1% 11.1% 10.6% 9.4% 7.8% 8.1% 8.5%

PM % 3.9% 5.0% 4.8% 3.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.5%

arning Yeild % 14.6% 7.3% 11.4% 12.3% 10.6% 13.1% 18.0%

vidend Yeild % 2.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4%

OE % 14.7% 19.7% 12.9% 11.0% 6.9% 7.1% 9.0%

OCE% 7.1% 10.5% 8.5% 6.5% 3.7% 3.2% 4.3%

osition

et Worth 870 1027 1645 1851 1947 2068 2244

otal Debt 945 901 831 1281 1669 2500 2500

apital Employed 1815 1929 2476 3133 3616 4568 4744

o of Share 13 13 15 15 15 15 15

MP 66 210 121 108 83 73 73

aluation

ook Value 65.6 77.5 107.2 120.7 126.9 134.8 146.2

/B 1.0 2.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5

t/Coverage 2.0 3.0 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.0

/E 6.8 13.7 8.8 8.1 9.4 7.6 5.5

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Godrej Consumer Product

722

960

725

33%

32%

1M 1yr YTD

solute -13.8 1.5 5.4

l. to Nifty -10.3 1.4 0.6

Current 2QFY14 1QFY14

omoters 63.3 63.3 63.3

28.9 28.7 28.3

1.4 1.2 1.2

hers 6.5 6.8 7.2

Financials Rs,

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 1982.3 1961.7 1.1% 1695.6 16.9%

EBITDA 311.1 299.8 3.8% 284.9 9.2%

PAT 196 195 0.5% 172.2 13.8%

EBITDA Margin 15.7% 15.3% 210bps 16.8% (30bps

PAT Margin 9.9% 9.9% 220bps 10.2% (10bps

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

ock Performance

wk Range H/L

erage Daily Volume

ange from Previous

yr Forward P/B

are Holding Pattern-%

120012

fty 6002

For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led

18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported growth across

geographies and segments, respectively. PAT grew by 14% on YoY basis.

" Strategy Shining" 

MP

pside

Almost in l ine set of numbers; 

rget Price

esult update BUY

24573

evious Target Price

977/672

E Code 532424

SE Symbol GODREJCP

arket Data

kt Capital (Rs Cr)

View and Valuations: Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticid

business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in

international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Desp

some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus, macro uncertainties

Africa and LatAM, and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sa

growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond. At a CMP of Rs722, stock trad

at 5.1x FY15E P/BV. We retain BUY with a price target of Rs 960.

Its strong focus on driving growth in the domestic and international market

expansion of products and distribution reach, we expect strong earning in ne

future. With launching new products in domestic as well as international mkt, God

CP will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x

strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs.

Margin decline:  The Company has been able to maintain its margin more than 15

mark. EBITDA margin declined 110bps (YoY) to 15.7%, due to rise in A&P cost by 80 b

to 11.5%. However, there was decline in RM cost by 500 bps to 38.8% of adjusted n

sales.

On Category wise: During the Quarter, Household insecticides grew by +8%, adverse

impacted by abnormal seasonal slowdown. Both the key brands Hit and Good knigcontinue to gain share and strengthen market leadership positions across all forma

Soap sales growth was +6%, volume growth at +4%, ahead of the category growth, b

down in value and volume term. Strong momentum in hair colours was maintaine

delivering sales growth at +37%. Liquid detergents grew 36%.

Geography wise performance:   For 3QFY14, Business from India grew by 18% a

contributed 53% of total revenue, Indonesia grew by +18% and contributed 17% of to

revenue, Africa grew by 29% and contributed 15% of total revenue, Latin America gre

by 15% and contributed 8% of total revenue and Europe’s business continued stro

sales performance on both organic and Soft & Gentle (S&G) product portfolio. Busine

reported growth of 124%.Products strategy: The company continues to gain and enjoy market leader ship positi

across all three formats. The company is driving increase in penetration with launch

"Goodknight Advanced colour play".

Recent developments: The Company has entered into an agreement on Oct 7, 2013,

acquire a 30% stake in Bhabani Blunt Hair Dressing Pvt Ltd, a premier hair sa

company with one of the strongest consumer franchises in this space.

"BUY"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

ales and its Growth(%)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

egion-wise EBITDA Margin

omestic and Export sales-(% of Sales)

Godrej Consumer Product

It expects expansion in gross marginwhich will help it to fund new produc

launches.

argin-%

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

India branded business grows 17ahead of the market growth across co

categories.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

gions 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY142

ia 18.9% 20.4% 20.2% 15.1% 17.6% 18% 16.7% 15.8% 18.9% 18.5%

onesia 19.4% 20.6% 20.7% 18% 19% 20% 19% 15% 17% 16.0%

ica 26.0% 31% 19.3% 19% 16% 20% 7% 13% 14% 18.0%

n America 7.4% 9% 16.3% 3% 4% 8% 9% 3% 7% 9.0%

ope 11% 5% 10.5% 13% 9% 5% 13% 9% 10% 6.0%

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Godrej Consumer Product

)The company will continue investing judiciously for the longer term to improve

sition, create competitive advantage and emerge stronger than before.

) They are not seeing any major impact on Argentina or Africa revenue, because of 

onomic uncertainties,

ey facts from Conference call (attended on 3rd Feb 2014);

) The management stated that the company is continue to be aggressive in launching

w innovations that have been well accepted by consumers. They are backing new

unches with strong investments.

) More focusing on Innovative pipeline and Brand equity to maintain its market shareross brands,They will launch a new product next week, but they did not tell the

gment name.

) Q4 will be better quarter for household segments.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

nancials and Valuation

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

ales 2041.2 3693.6 4866.16 6390.79 7701.26 9053.82

ther Operating Income 2.5 28.11 45.93 16.58 15.40 18.11

otal income from operations 2043.7 3721.71 4912.09 6407.37 7716.66 9071.93

M Cost 619.59 1458.28 2174.67 2640.31 3028.79 3719.49

urchases of stock-in-trade 367.16 294.12 356.11 451.03 559.46 657.71

WIP -40.45 -45.22 -212.26 -118.06 -23.15 -90.72

mployee Cost 151.81 284.51 391.91 590.68 733.08 907.19

d Spend 132.8 352.85 449.86 660.35 887.42 997.91

ther expenses 402.98 695.96 850.47 1196.46 1311.8 1587.6

otal expenses 1633.89 3040.5 4010.76 5420.77 6497.4 7779.2

BITDA 409.81 681.21 901.33 986.6 1219.2 1292.7

epreciation and Amortisation 23.6 49.92 64.44 77 92.7 100.4

ther Income 44.81 24.13 6.07 67.78 57.9 90.7

xceptional Item 0 41.14 200.17 96.12 38.6 45.4

BIT 386.21 631.29 836.89 909.6 1126.5 1192.3

nterest 11.1 43.64 65.84 77.45 87.7 78.7

BT 419.92 652.92 977.29 996.05 1135.3 1249.7

ax Exp 80.33 138.21 226.05 179.18 204.35 249.94

AT 339.59 514.71 751.24 816.87 930.9 999.8

rowth-% (YoY)

ales 46.3% 81.0% 31.7% 31.3% 20.5% 17.6%

BITDA 95.2% 66.2% 32.3% 9.5% 23.6% 6.0%

AT 97.0% 51.6% 46.0% 8.7% 14.0% 7.4%

xpenses on Sales-%

M Cost 30.3% 39.2% 44.3% 41.2% 39.3% 41.0%

d Spend 6.5% 9.5% 9.2% 10.3% 11.5% 11.0%

mployee Cost 7.4% 7.6% 8.0% 9.2% 9.5% 10.0%

ther expenses 19.7% 18.7% 17.3% 18.7% 17.0% 17.5%

ax rate 19.1% 21.2% 23.1% 18.0% 18.0% 20.0%

Margin-%

BITDA 20.1% 18.3% 18.3% 15.4% 15.8% 14.3%

BIT 18.9% 17.0% 17.0% 14.2% 14.6% 13.1%

AT 16.6% 13.8% 15.3% 12.7% 12.1% 11.0%

aluation:MP 261 365 559 836 722.0 722.0

o of Share 30.8 32.4 34 34.03 34.03 34.03

W 954.7 1725.2 2815.2 3313.0 4044.9 4845.6

PS 11.0 15.9 22.1 24.0 27.4 29.4

VPS 31.0 53.2 82.8 97.4 118.9 142.4

oE-% 35.6% 29.8% 26.7% 24.7% 23.0% 20.6%

iv- Payout-% 30.6% 38.3% 22.6% 23.0% 21.4% 19.9%

/BV 8.4 6.9 6.8 8.6 6.1 5.1

/E 23.7 23.0 25.3 34.8 26.4 24.6

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Sesa Sterlite Ltd.

Q3FY14 Result Update

185

196

NA6%

NA

500295

54979 Zinc Operations

24740

6002

1M 1yr YTD

solute -6.6 4.3 -0.6 Aluminium Operations

l. to Nifty -3.3 3.6 0.2

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY13

omoters 55.0 55.0 55.0

17.0 16.5 16.8

8.4 8.1 7.4

hers 19.7 20.4 20.9 Power Operations

Iron Ore Operations

Q3FY14 Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY1

19523 -23 237 2535

EBITDA   6572 2   -107 6462004 -30   35 284

Interest Cost   1530 -19   126 188

Tax   -139 -85   -81 -92

PAT   1868 -22   498 239(In Cr

1

VAL alumina refinery utilization increased to 72% in Q3 vs 46% in Q2 and captive alumin

met 43% of total requirements of the aluminium smelter.BALCO volume performanc

was stable but costs were lower resulting in increase in profits.Management expects t

tap first metal from 325 ktpa smelter of BALCO in H1FY15 and sees synchronization of 1s

unit of 1200 MW power plant in Q1FY15. Starting of metal tapping from 1.25 mtp

smelter of VAL has still not been finalized.

wk Range H/L

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

213/119

Vedanta group firm Sesa Sterlite reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,868.29 cror

for the Q3FY14.The company, previously known as Sesa Goa, had reported a net profit o

Rs 496.73 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.During the quarter, itnet sales stood at Rs 19,414.34 crore .Results of the company, however, are no

comparable due to merger of Sterlite Industries, Sterlite Energy, Ekaterina Ltd, Madra

Aluminium and Vedanta Aluminium into itself.The merger had become effective i

August last year.During the quarter EBIDTA% and NPM% increased to 33% and 9.4%

respectively from 24.6% and 7.6% in previous quarter . The company reported a fore

loss of 82cr during the quarter.

Production was lower by ~5% YoY to 220kt and FY14E production guidnace was reduce

further to 900kt (from 950kt in Q2 and 1000kt in Q1) due to slower than expected ramp

up in underground mining.Integrated silver production guidance has been reduced t290t (vs 335t earlier) due to lower output from Agucha than earlier expected.

arket Data

Neutral

E Symbol

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

ock Performance-%

are Holding Pattern-%

yr Forward P/B

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

side

ange from Previous

MP

rget Price

evious Target Price

tial Coverage

Depriciation

Revenue from Operation

erage Daily Volume (Nos.)

E Code

SSLT

Operations at Karnataka have resumed and ramp up to a run rate of 0.5 MT/month

underway.The first iron ore sale through e-auction is expected at the end of curren

month.Operations remained in Goa but e-auction of inventory has been allowed

However, further clarityon the start of auctions is still sought.

Q3FY14 Financials :

Blended realizations fell QoQ to Rs3.4/unit while CoP stood at Rs2.3/unit.Boiler light u

of 1st unit of 660MW of Talwandi Sabo power project was done in Q3 and trial runs ar

expected to commence during Q4.

fty

"Neutral"4th Feb' 14

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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l & Gas Operations

lance sheet and debt

sa Sterlite's mines in Goa remains a challenge

nc Lead Expansion projects for better growth

UTLOOK

ompany background

14

Q2, average gross operated production and working interest production were 224493

oepd and 140830 boepd, respectively, 10% higher YoY. Production at Cambay was

gher by 51% YoY due to new infill wells.

oss debt at Sesa Sterlite was Rs840.2bn as at Dec’13. This comprises long term loans

Rs.650bn and short term working capital loans of Rs. 189.6bn.

uring 2QFY2013, the Goa government had imposed a ban on iron ore mining in Goa

til further review. Later, the Ministry of Environment and Forest Clearances (MOEF)

so suspended environment clearances to all functional mining leases in Goa. Sesa Goa

perated several mines in the region with an annual production of 12mn tonne. While

e believe the ban could be temporary, there are chances of iron ore production cap by

e government/MOEF which could affect Sesa’s production going forward. This is likely

be a key overhang on the stock in our view.

sa Sterlite’s   subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc (HZL) has commenced production at its

derground Kayad mine, which has 11mn tonne of high-grade reserves. The company

pects to increase its capacity from 1.0mn tonne to 5mn tonne over the coming five

ars.

Sesa Sterlite Ltd.

sa Sterlite is one of the world’s largest diversified natural resource companies. It

oduces zinc, lead, silver, copper, aluminium, iron ore, oil & gas and power. Sesa

erlite came into existence mainly as a result of merging of two companies Sesa Goa

d Sterlite Industries which were owned by Vedanta Resources. The merger wasnounced during January 2012 while it was completed during August 2013. Sesa

erlite generates ~80% of its revenues from India, China, East Asia, Africa and the

iddle East.

e company’s actual 3QFY2014 results are not comparable with 3QFY2013 results as

e two companies, Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries were merged during August

13.The company has delayed the commissioning of the 325ktpa BALCO-III Aluminium

melter from 3QFY2014 to 1HFY2015.The company has resumed iron ore mining

perations in Karnataka from December 28, 2013 where it has 2.29mn tonne per

num capacity and is gradually ramping up the production at the rate of 0.5mn tonner month.We expect Sesa Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of Zinc-Lead smelting

pacity during FY2014-15.In the mean time Norwegian government has asked its

vereign wealth fund not to invest in Sesa Sterlite and two Israeli firms citing ethical

ues.We value the stock using forward P/B and here by we recomend Neutral rating

the stock at a target price of Rs.196 from current market price of Rs.185.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

8310 2554 66976 75013

973 567 25416 28294

268 250 3011 3311

181 51 705 7051739 756 12791 13590

4810 2089 47412 52009

3500 465 19564 23004

106 197 6939 8300

106 197 6939 8300

433 475 5107 6280

3195 -153 9422 11224

1021 -43 -1175 2416

2762 2301 6548 6478

14 -1 8 5

25.0 -1.3 21.9 21.9

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

83 87 87 87

7835 12724 15031 17388

7918 12810 15118 17475

44 31 1116 1179

1916 968 2618 3322

6 6 4 4

727 1169 887 547

405 425 233 42

11238 15604 20401 22889

0 15 10 89

704 927 1390 188079 729 837 723

401 462 199 492

503 744 875 961

338 683 549 142

2392 897 98 36

745 859 369 329

11238 15604 20401 22889

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

3.4 1.1 1.1 1.0

41.8 43.3 25.4 -4.2

56.9 59.0 41.0 17.828.8 37.7 14.2 10.4

2.8 9.0 11.6 10.5

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3

15

ng-term provisions

ade payables

ort-term provisions

x

S PERFORMANCE

are capital

serve & Surplus

tal equity

ng-term borrowings

ort-term borrowings

ade receivables

ort-term loans and advances

tal Assets

B

tal liabilities

sh and bank balances

tangibles

ngible assets

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

AT WITHOUT Expactional Item

OE%

S

ATIOS

PM %

pital work-in-progress

ng-term loans and advances

ventories

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

eighted Average Cost of Debt %

ebt/Equity (debt/debt+networth or

ITDA %OCE%

et Revenue from Operation

ost Of Projects & Contractual

mployee benefit Expence

ITDA

epriciation

epriciation

terest Cost

BT

Sesa Sterlite Ltd.

L PERFORMANCE

ss on Foreign Currency Transactionher expences

penditure

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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1M 1yr YTD

bsolute -5.0 9.5 9.3

el. to Nifty -1.6 8.9 -4.4

Current 2QFY14 1QFY1

omoters   39.9 39.9 39.9

  30.6 30.4 29.9

I  8.5 8.8 9.3

hers   21.0 20.9 8.7

Financials   Rs, Cro

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 6846 5696 20.2 6151 11.3

EBITDA 898 833 7.8 779 15.3

PAT 525 482 8.9 489 7.4

EBITDA Margin 13.1% 14.6%  (150bps)   12.7% 50bps

PAT Margin 7.7% 8.5% (80bps)   7.9% (30bps)

The net profits for the stands at Rs 525 Cr for the quarter grew by only 7.5% yoy as the t

rate increased to nearly 27% from 16% earlier due to expiry of tax benefits at the Haridw

facility.

Post the 3QFY14 result management said that Industry motorcycle sales should be in

range of 5 % and it will be in that level for the year and HMC will be at par with th

Company has maintained its ad spend guidance at 2-2.5 % of sales and R&D spends

nearly 0.75% of sales. The capital expenditure guidance for FY2014 stands at Rs1100 C

Rs1200 Crr.For FY2015 the company has guided for Rs 1,500 Cr to Rs1,800 Cr.

The Management indicated that the current dividend policy of 35-45% payout will continue

future.  The total installed capacity of the company currently stands at 6.9mn units. Post

commissioning of the Neemrana plant, scheduled by end of March 2014, the installed capacit

expected to increase to 7.65mn units.

 Average Sales with Flat Profits Growth..

esult Update BUY

MP 1979

The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 6846 Cr up by 11.3% YoY led

healthy volume growth of 7% for the period under review. The company during 3QFY

sold 1680940 units including exports. The volume performance was led by a strong 7.8YoY growth in the domestic segment, while export volumes posted a decline of 26.5% Y

mainly due to a weak demand environment in major exporting nations. Scooters sa

maintained strong momentum, led by the success of Maestro.

The average realization for the quarter moved up and came around at Rs 41000 verses

39100 for the same time last fiscal. The net average realization for the quarter was driven

price increases, which were undertaken in April and October 2013.

pside

arget Price 2100evious Target Price -

The stock at its CMP of Rs 1979 which is 17.9x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs 1

and upcoming capacity expansion, Rising trend of volume growth of scooter busine

Improvement in operational efficiency are few factors which make us positive for the sto

We recommend BUY for the stock with Target Price Rs 2100.

ne Yr Price Vs NIFTY

(Source: Company/Eastw

1,434

verage Daily Volume 245841

fty 6089

hare Holding Pattern-%

kt Capital (Rs, Cr)

The operating EBITDA for the 3QFY14 came at Rs 898 Cr and OPM stands at 13

%.There is yearly rise in the OPM by nearly 40 bps however on sequential basis it h

shrunk by 150 bps due to led by increase in raw-material costs and significantly higher ot

expenditure. Raw material cost as a percentage of sales increased 120bp QoQ due to

currency impact on indirect imports, which comes with a  quarter’s lag. The other expens

in the quarter rose significantly very high because of higher advertisement expenses duefestival season and also due to the launch of new products/ refreshes and higher roya

payments on the back of rising share of new products. Additionally, the ongoing c

reduction initiatives from the company led to a savings of Rs45 Cr during the quarter.

View & Valuation

HEROMOTOCO

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

wk Range H/L 2215

6%

arket DataSE Code 500182

HEROMOTOCO

ock Performance-%

SE Symbol

hange from Previous -

"BUY" 3rd

Feb' 14.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

ealization Trend

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Profits for the grew by only 7.5% yoy as

tax rate increased to nearly 27% from 1

earlier due to expiry of tax benefits at

Haridwar facility.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ALES & PAT TREND

Company registered its 3QFY14 net sales

Rs 6846 Cr up by 11.3% YoY led by healvolume growth of 7%.

Rise in the OPM by nearly 40 bps however

sequential basis it had shrunk by 150 bps d

to led by increase in raw-material costs a

significantly higher other expenditure.

HEROMOTOCO

PM & NPM TREND

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Marico

les (cr) and Growth (%) -

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

argin-%

penses on Sales -%

For 2QFY14, Marico reported 4% (Y

decline in sales growth because of sluggvolume growth impacted by weaker dema

in urban area.

The demerger of Kaya is on the way, a

new demerged entity would expected to

listed by November or December.

Because of cost control in ad spend200bps and Raw material about 190bps,

margin gone up by 210 bps to 15.1% on Y

basis.

eographical challenges:   International market recorded a growth of 15%. Because of 

litical uncertainty, Bangladesh sales declined by 14%(YoY). While, the MENA business

an average grew by 10% CC basis. The business in Egypt grew by 22% mainly led byrong volume growth in Haircode and Fiancée. The business in GCC continued to report a

cline. Political environment in Egypt seems to have bettered for the time being with no

ajor report of violence, however the uncertainty continues. South Africa reported a top-

e growth of 5%. The business in South East Asia of which Vietnam comprises a

gnificant portion grew by 24% in constant currency terms.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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) Operating Margin could sustain at a range of 17-18% in the medium term.

) The Youth brands portfolio is expected to grow by about 20% to 25%.

) In near term, Company does not expect to see any price hike decision.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

) Immediate future could see volume growth rates of 7%- 8%. With the price increases

ready in market place the overall sales growth could still be in the region of 12%-14%.

is is expected to improve from early/mid FY15.

(Source: Company/Eastwi

Marico

y facts from Management guidance;

nancials

) Management believes that the decline trend of volume growth has turned out, while

e economic environment is still challenging and there will be gradual recovery.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

ales 2500.09 3134.99 4008.28 4259.53 4740.86 5344.65

Other Operating Income 160.67 19.06 30.90 12.51 14.22 16.03

otal income from operations 2660.76 3154.05 4039.18 4596.86 4755.08 5360.68

M Cost 1265.48 1712.66 2132.04 2212.27 2228.20 2672.32

urchases of stock-in-trade 12.47 20.36 17.44 116.59 48.53 54.71WIP -16.35 -115.43 -50.78 -127.47 -98.72 -111.29

mployee Cost 190.13 229.98 307.29 380.56 380.41 428.85

d Spend 351.12 345.95 448.99 597.94 618.16 643.28

Other expenses 482.76 523.36 668.90 791.07 808.36 911.32

otal expenses 2285.61 2716.88 3523.88 3970.96 3984.94 4599.19

BITDA 375.15 437.17 515.30 625.90 770.14 761.49

epreciation and Amortisation 60.06 70.80 72.52 86.62 145.44 133.80

Other Income 18.26 2.16 1.67 37.52 19.17 21.61

xceptional Item -9.79 48.91 -1.75 33.20 33.29 37.52

BIT 323.56 417.44 442.70 610.00 677.15 686.82

nterest 25.69 41.01 42.39 57.43 57.43 57.43

BT 297.87 376.43 400.31 552.57 619.72 629.39

ax Exp 64.33 84.98 78.25 146.18 163.95 166.50

AT 233.54 291.45 322.06 406.39 455.78 462.89

rowth-% (YoY)

ales 11.4% 18.5% 28.1% 13.8% 3.4% 12.7%

BITDA 29.2% 16.5% 17.9% 21.5% 23.0% -1.1%

AT 33.5% 24.8% 10.5% 26.2% 12.2% 1.6%

xpenses on Sales-%

M Cost 47.6% 54.3% 52.8% 48.1% 46.9% 49.9%

d Spend 13.2% 11.0% 11.1% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0%

mployee Cost 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% 8.3% 8.0% 8.0%

Other expenses 18.1% 16.6% 16.6% 17.2% 17.0% 17.0%

ax rate 21.6% 22.6% 19.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%

Margin-%

BITDA 14.1% 13.9% 12.8% 13.6% 16.2% 14.2%

BIT 12.2% 13.2% 11.0% 13.3% 14.2% 12.8%

AT 8.8% 9.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 8.6%

aluation:MP 108.55 138.75 206.00 216.95 214.00 214.00

o of Share 60.90 61.40 61.40 64.48 64.48 64.48

W 653.96 915.44 1143.01 1981.52 2399.58 2824.75

PS 3.83 4.75 5.25 6.30 7.07 7.18

VPS 10.74 14.91 18.62 30.73 37.21 43.81

oE-% 35.7% 31.8% 28.2% 20.5% 19.0% 16.4%

/BV 10.11 9.31 11.07 7.06 5.75 4.88

/E 28.31 29.23 39.27 34.42 30.28 29.81

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Narnolia Securities Ltd

402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph

033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

email: [email protected],website : www.narnolia.com

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of 

the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation

advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any

action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been

furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or

redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly

available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we

consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not

provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to changewithout notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,

should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that

past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of 

any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to

assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates

and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or

otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and

other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned

in this report/message.