stock market mayhem 2...5 today’s topics •market update •recessions •what next? •key...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Presenter: Shawn SpruceTuesday, July 7th, 2020
Stock Market Mayhem 2
The Coronavirus and Indian Country Webinar Series
The U.S. is currently in a recession.
True False
2
Which of the following stocks has not been a top performer in 2020?
Paypal Delta Airlines NVIDIA Netflix Amazon
3
Which of the following three stocks has been the best performer in 2020?
Draft Kings Tesla Zoom
4
Which of the following has been the best performing asset class in 2020?
Real Estate Small Cap Stocks U.S. Fixed IncomeEmerging Market Stocks
5
Today’s Topics
• Market Update
• Recessions
• What next?
• Key takeaways
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1/2/2020 2/2/2020 3/2/2020 4/2/2020 5/2/2020 6/2/2020 7/2/202
Points
First U.S. Death on February 29th
S&P 500Year to Date
China reports first deathon January 11th
U.S. reports 100,000 deaths
May 23rd
S&P 500 Sector PerformanceYTD as of June 30th, 2020
‐40.00%
‐30.00%
‐20.00%
‐10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%Hea
lth Care
Consum
er Discretiona
ry
Consum
er Staples
Energy
Fina
ncials
Indu
stria
ls
Inform
ation Te
chno
logy
Materials
Real Estate
Commun
ication Se
rvices
Utilities
Source: Bloomberg
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)5 Year Performance
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
2‐Jul‐2015 2‐Jul‐2016 2‐Jul‐2017 2‐Jul‐2018 2‐Jul‐2019 2‐Jul‐20
Daily Treasury Yield Curve RatesJuly 1st, 2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
Yield
Daily Treasury Yield Curve RatesJuly 1st, 2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
Yield
Daily Treasury Yield Curve RatesJuly 1st, 2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
Yield
Inverted Yield CurveFebruary 25th, 2020
1.294
1.296
1.298
1.3
1.302
1.304
1.306
1.308
1.31
1.312
Yield
10 Year Treasury
1 Year Treasury
11 months
16 months
11 months
16 months
8 months
8 months
18 months
4 months
1969‐1970
1970‐1975
1980
1981‐1982
1990‐1991
2001
2007‐2009
2020‐?
Recessions1969 to Present
Source: Wall Street Journal
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Consumer Spending
Business Investment
Government Spending
Net Exports
Positives
• Virus has slowed
• Economy is returning
• Fundamentals are in place
• Consumer confidence has improved
Negatives
• Social distancing measures continue
• Spikes in some states
• Covid‐19 has become highly politicized
• Business is slow to recover
• Employment data
Factors
• Massive stimulus
• Fed backed recovery
• Lost wages and earnings
• Heavy debt
• Protests and social justice movement
Risks
• Will a vaccine exist in the relatively near future?
• Will we see a second wave in the fall?
• How will elections impact markets?
• Corporate guidance is minimal
Key Takeaways• Markets appear to have stabilized
• Volatility is lower
• Recovery has stalled
• Anticipate weak equity performance though 2020
• Monitor your holdings
• Attendee prizes
20
Autumn Romero Shawn Spruce
(303) 774‐7836 (505) 917‐0709
[email protected] [email protected] nativesonabudget.com
SHAWN SPRUCETRAINING AND CONSULTING