stock picks presentation 2014-0319 (new template) · 3 using sharexplorer 1. boustead singapore...
TRANSCRIPT
Stock Picks
2
Agenda
1. Boustead Singapore
2. Overseas Education
3. Singapore Post
3
Using ShareXplorer
1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)
Market capitalisation = S$970mDividend yield = 2.7%2014 EPS = 14.4 S cents2014 PE = 12.7x
4
Investment Highlights1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)
• Business model requires low capital intensity• Scaleability is an advantage and an opportunity• M&A opportunities in energy and real estate
Source: Boustead
Four Business Segments Group Business Model
Source: Boustead
5
Investment Highlights1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)
Industrial Real Estate Solutions• Competitive advantage in its
end-to-end capabilities• Top-line visibility on the
back of its S$202m orderbook and growing recurring stream
Source: Boustead, UOB Kay Hian
221.0 214.0
142.0
246.0
158.0 154.0
0.0
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250.0
300.0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1HFY140.0
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15.0
20.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1HFY14Source: Boustead, UOB Kay Hian
Turnkey Engineering Approach
Design-Build Contracts Secured (S$m)
Rental Income (S$m)
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Investment Highlights
1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)Industrial Real Estate Solutions• Building an industrial leasehold portfolio for future unlocking• Iskandar foray adds to regional presence
Source: Boustead
Industrial Leasehold Portfolio Nusajaya Iskandar Map
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Investment Highlights
1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)Energy-Related Engineering• Alternative proxy to global
O&G upcycle• Energy pre-tax margin has
bottomed; potential recovery going forward
Source: Boustead, UOB Kay Hian Source: Boustead, UOB Kay Hian
Cylindrical Heater System (UK)
Energy Contracts Secured (S$m)
Energy PBT Margin123.0
67.0
111.0
143.0 144.0145.0
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60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 1HFY14
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
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Investment Highlights
1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)Geo-Spatial Technology• Market dominance to
support sustainable revenue growth
• Favourable cost structure and recurring stream lend to good margins and cash flow
Source: Boustead, UOB Kay HianSource: Boustead
Esri’s Geographic Information System (GIS)
Geo-Spatial Revenue and PBT (S$m)
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FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
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Investment Highlights
1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)Water and Wastewater Engineering• Breaking even as restructuring ends
Source: Boustead
Water Plants - Singapore
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Valuation & Financials1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)
• Target price S$1.94 (+4.6% upside)• SOTP valuation model with implied FY15F PE 17.5x• 25% of market cap is net cash• Potential catalysts: contract wins, turnaround in water division,
earnings-accretive M&As, REIT listing• Key risks: cyclical risk, foreign exchange risk, execution risk,
shortage in skilled talent, political risk in Libya
Source: Boustead, UOB Kay Hian
4.0
5.5
7.0
5.0
7.0
5.0 5.0 5.0
0.01.0
2.03.0
4.05.0
6.07.0
8.0
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Dividend Per Share (S cents)
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Valuation & Financials
1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)
16.8 17.3 18.1 29.3 23.0 ROE (%)71.6 87.2 128.5 81.2 81.5 Interest cover (x)
(62.0)(47.6)(72.1)(62.8)(67.0)Net gearing (%)11.2 10.9 11.0 15.9 13.6 PATMI margin (%)2.7 2.7 2.7 3.8 2.7 Dividend yield (%)8.7 10.6 10.2 7.6 10.7 EV/EBITDA (x)2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.6 P/BV (x)
15.7 16.8 17.4 11.6 17.0 P/E (x)11.9 11.1 10.7 16.1 11.0 Adj. EPS (S cent)62.558.356.281.455.6Adj. net profit65.761.358.784.558.4Net profit76.569.367.595.068.9EBIT86.878.574.8100.372.8EBITDA
560.6533.6512.4513.2408.7Net turnoverFY16FFY15FFY14FFY13FY12Year to 31 Mar (S$m)
Projections
Source: Boustead, UOB Kay Hian
12
Chart Genie1. Boustead Singapore (S$1.855)
Last Price: S$1.855Support: S$1.79Resistance: -
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Using ShareXplorer
2. Overseas Education (S$0.815)
Market capitalisation = S$339mDividend yield = 3.4%2014 EPS = 5.7 S cents2014 PE = 14.3x
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Investment Highlights2. Overseas Education (S$0.815)
• New campus to lift capacity constraint by at least 22% and allowfor more competitive pricing
• New campus on track to be completed by school year commencing Aug 15
Site Visit (Nov 13)
Source: Overseas Education, UOB Kay Hian
15
Investment Highlights
2. Overseas Education (S$0.815)
• Stable business with long-term customers• Cash-generating business; no debt but fundraising in 2014• Average tuition fee increase of 8.5% for school year Aug 13 to
drive revenue growth in 1H14
Source: Overseas Education, UOB Kay Hian
History Of Student Enrolment Net Cash And Free Cash Flow (S$m)
0
5001,000
1,5002,000
2,500
3,0003,500
4,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Net Cash Free Cash Flow
Source: Overseas Education, UOB Kay Hian
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Valuation & Financials
2. Overseas Education (S$0.815)
• BUY recommendation, Target price S$0.98 (+20.2% upside)• 3-stage DCF valuation model with implied 2014F PE 16.5x• Peer-average FY14 PE is 22x• Potential catalysts: efficient staff-cost management, higher-than-
estimated student enrolment and capacity increase at new campus
• Key risks: inflationary pressure on personnel expense, executionrisk, lower-than-expected student enrolment due to change in campus location
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Valuation & Financials
2. Overseas Education (S$0.815)
Source: Overseas Education, UOB Kay Hian
Projections
18.8 17.2 16.1 16.0 33.8 ROE (%)17.2 8.5 12.3 n.an.aInterest cover (x)
1.6%18.0%-27.9%n.an.aNet gearing (%)24.8 22.5 21.4 22.0 21.5 PATMI margin (%)5.2 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.4 Dividend yield (%)5.8 8.4 8.0 6.9 8.5 EV/EBITDA (x)1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 5.0 P/BV (x)9.7 11.7 13.7 14.3 16.4 P/E (x)8.4 7.0 5.9 5.7 5.0 Adj. EPS (S cent)8.4 7.0 5.9 5.7 5.0 EPS (S cent)
35.128.924.722.620.7Adj. net profit35.128.924.722.620.7Net profit44.639.232.126.924.2EBIT59.344.036.830.928.6EBITDA
141.3128.3115.4102.796.2Net turnover2016F2015F2014F20132012Year to 31 Dec (S$m)
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Chart Genie2. Overseas Education (S$0.815)
Last Price: S$0.815Support: S$0.80Resistance: S$0.84
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Using ShareXplorer
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
Market capitalisation = S$2,530mDividend yield = 4.8%2014 EPS = 7.4 S cents2014 PE = 17.7x
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• No longer your traditional mailman
Source: SingPost
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• Piling on regional logistics; 15% ROI for M&As
Source: SingPost
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• Logistics revenue to grow at a 3-year CAGR of 23%
0.050.0
100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0500.0
FY00FY01FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16
Source: SingPost, UOB Kay Hian
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• Frontrunner in end-to-end e-commerce solutions
Source: SingPost
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• Frontrunner in end-to-end e-commerce solutions
Source: SingPost
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Investment Highlights3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• Dominance in Singapore mail…
Source: SingPost, UOB Kay Hian
0.0
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Revenue from Mail Division (S$m)
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• …to support base annual dividend of 5 S cents
Source: SingPost, UOB Kay Hian
Free Cash Flow (S$m)
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Dividend (cents per share)
Source: SingPost
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Investment Highlights
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• Singapore Post Center – Tall in value
Source: ICA
416.8Less: Net Book Value, Fees428.6Net gain0.22Per share (S$)
845.38Total159.42Retail (10%)548.00Office (45%)137.96Industrial (45%)
Valuation(S$m)
Source: SingPost, UOB Kay Hian
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Valuation & Financials
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
• BUY recommendation, Target price S$1.50 (+13.6% upside)• 3-stage DCF valuation model with implied FY15F PE of 20.8x• FY14-16F ROCE of 39%• Potential catalysts: higher contributions from its new subsidiaries,
stronger organic business growth from e-commerce activities• Key risks: e-commerce failing to counteract the decline in
traditional mail, competition, labour cost pressures, economic downturn and externalities
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Valuation & Financials
3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)Projections
Source: SingPost, UOB Kay Hian
40.7 40.5 39.3 38.4 44.0 ROE (%)28.1 26.4 22.4 12.8 14.1 Interest cover (x)(0.4)(0.4)(0.3)(0.3)(0.4)Net gearing (%)17.0 17.3 17.5 20.7 24.5 PATMI margin (%)4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Dividend yield (%)9.5 10.4 11.1 11.1 11.0 EV/EBITDA (x)6.9 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.8 P/BV (x)
16.9 18.2 19.5 20.4 17.7 P/E (x)7.7 7.2 6.7 6.4 7.4 Adj. EPS (S cent)7.7 7.2 6.7 6.4 7.4 EPS (S cent)
147.9137.7128.1121.6140.8Adj. net profit165.2154.8144.9136.5142.0Net profit203.5191.0180.1178.5186.3EBIT245.7229.4214.7214.8216.5EBITDA957.5883.4817.0658.8578.5Net turnover
FY16FFY15FFY14FFY13FY12Year to 31 Mar (S$m)
30
Chart Genie3. Singapore Post (S$1.32)
Last Price: S$1.32Support: S$1.285Resistance: S$1.33
Thank You