stock trading by big money
DESCRIPTION
This presentation is based on my research about Big Money movement and their influence to Stock Price Movement especially in Indonesian Stock ExchangeTRANSCRIPT
Introduction to
Stock Trading Based on Big Money Movement
by Toto Tjung Independent Stock Trader fb : [email protected]
[email protected] Twitter @tototjung
+6281808579138
Table of
Contents
Stock Trading Goal Stock Trading Approaches
Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Trading by Rumor Astrology Trading By Big Money
Movement
Why Big Money How to trace Big Money Basic Rule How to Use Study Case
Stock Trading Goal
#3
Got profit by Selling Stock price above it's buying price
Stock Trading Approaches
#4
1. Fundamentals Analysis2. Technical Analysis3. Rumor4. Astrology5. Big Money Movement
(Bandarmology)
Fundamentals Analysis
#5
Advantages Based on Company Financial
Performances and Management Used a lot By Big Trading Company to
forecast target price With Good Audit and Control, difficult to
cheat with the data without anybody know
Fundamentals Analysis
#6
Disadvantages Easy to manipulate, especially in
Indonesia Difficult to understand for average traders Long term investment. Need another tools
to know the entry point
Technical Analysis
#7
Advantages Relatively easy to learn Relatively easy to interpret Popular now amongst Indonesian Broker
Company
Technical Analysis
#8
Disadvantages Difficult to choose the best Technical
Indicator Sometimes Signal Contradict Each
Other Sometimes Signal triggered late after
price already discounted the signal Tends to get trapped in forever try to
make the best TA indicator
#9
Statistics Fact about TA
StrategyNumber of
TradesP/L in Pips P/L in %
Max Drawdown
BuyAndHold 1 -3,416.66 -3.42 25.44Bollinger Bands 20 -19,535.97 -19.54 37.99
MACD 110 3,937.67 3.94 27.55Parabolic SAR 128 -9,746.29 -9.75 21.96
Stochastic 74 -20,716.40 -20.72 30.64
RSI 8 -18,716.69 -18.72 34.57
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo 53 30,341.22 30.34 19.51
http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-the-most-profitable-indicator.html#ixzz2X0je55mi
Testing Result on daily EUR/USD with 5 years data
#10
Which TA ?
#11
Trading By Rumor
Buy on Rumor, Sell on news Rumor can be wrong The closer We to the source, the bigger
chance We can get gain from the rumor (and vice versa)
Retail traders mostly hear the rumors very late
Where are We in the circle of rumor?
#12
Trading by Rumor, VIVA Case
#13
Trading by Rumor, BBKP Case
#14
Astrology
Difficult to explain by logic Superstitious Self Fulfilling prophecy? Indonesian like to interest about their
zodiac and its affect to their daily life
#15
Trading By Big Money Movement
Price movement is triggered by Supply and Demand More Buyer than Seller -> Price will be increased More Seller than Buyer -> Price will be decreased
Big/Smart Money will have more power to push price according to their position
Follow that Big/Smart Money Sometimes, Big Money can also make
wrong decision creating losing trade
#16
Why Big Money?
1. Size does matters2. Price Change is triggered by Supply
and Demand3. Big Money have better link from
insider to receive a rumor before it went to public
#17
Why Big Money?
4. They have more accurate access to company financial data (better Fundamental Analyst and auditor, better links to cross check Company financial reports (Insider, Bloomberg terminal, etc)
5. Most of them afford to hire expert Technical Analyst to execute their trading plan
6. Can be used as GOOD confirmation for ALL other methods (FA, TA, Rumor, Astrology, etc)
#18
How to Trace Big Money ?
Technical Analysis Indicators (ADX) Using OHLCV as source of their
mathematical calculations Tends to be at the same direction
with Price Movements Easy to manipulate for short
timeframe ADX, Volume Accumulation, etc
#19
How to Trace Big Money ?
Trade Transaction Data Analysis Based on detail per trading
transaction done for that stocks Apply assumption/heuristics to
filter which one is Big Money and which one is Retail
#20
How to Trace Big Money ?
Foreign Inflow/Outflow Suitable for Indonesian Company
with big dependency to foreign investors/traders to move the market
Represent also smart money Not accurate for low volume
Stocks
#21
How to Trace Big Money ?Foreign Inflow/Outflow on IHSG
#22
How to Trace Big Money ?
Broker Transaction Analysis, Tlot vs Blot, etc Represent also smart money Can be used for all markets Difficult to get and analyze the
data automatically
#23
How to Trace Big Money ?Top 5 Broker Transaction on IHSG
#24
Basic Rule
1) Use Line Chart to plot total accumulation and distribution for each day per stock
2) Smallest timeframe is daily; the bigger the timeframe, the more valid the data
3) Trade at the same direction with Trend, Even when trend is applied to accumulation chart
#25
Basic Rule
4) Apply Moving Averages to the accumulation line chart to get the trend MA(ACUM, 5) for short term accumulation
trend MA(ACUM, 20) for medium term
accumulation trend
#26
Basic Rule
5) For simplification, We use MA theory to define uptrend and downtrend Uptrend when short MA is above long MA Downtrend when short MA is below long MA
6) Minor drop on uptrend accumulation doesn't means uptrend price will change to downtrend
#27
Basic Rule
7) Minor increase on downtrend accumulation doesn't means downtrend price will change to uptrend
8) Uptrend in accumulation will not suddenly change price trend to uptrend. Sometime price will stay sideways for a while before start to increase
#28
Basic Rule
9) Downtrend in accumulation will not suddenly change price trend to downtrend. Sometime price will still sideways for a while before start to decrease
10)Can be used as divergence indicator11)Don't buy on downtrend Accumulation.
Don't Sell on uptrend Accumulation 12)Price Discounts Everything
#29
How to Use
Simple Buy Indicator : Buy when both Close and High is BIGGER than previous day Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1);
PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);
Combined with Accumulation : Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1) and Acum > MA(Acum, 5) and MA(Acum, 5) > MA(Acum, 20); PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);
#30
Study Case : ACES
DON’T BUY DURING
DISTRIBUTION
#31
Study Case : PGAS
DON’T BUY DURING
DISTRIBUTION
#32
Study Case : ADRO
#33
Study Case : VIVA
April 2013, Big Rumor that HT or CT bought VIVA for around Rp.1200 per share, compared to that time market price (Rp.600 - Rp.650). Price jump up around 15% at one day on April 12nd. But after that start to run on downtrend. Latest another rumor, only ANTV finally sold (also with questionable price). But now, big money start to accumulate.
#34
Study Case : VIVABig Money View
#35
Study Case : BBKP
Big rumor (or fact?) that BBKP sold for Rp.1050 per shares at early June 2013. at June 11st, price jump to its high 800, only to decrease after that day and resume it's downtrend
#36
Study Case : BBKPBig Money View
#37
Study Case : CTRS
Big Uptrend with very good accumulation since 2012. First week April 2013, CTRS announced Private placement caused small correction, only to resume the uptrend after that
#38
Study Case : CTRSBig Money View
#39
Study Case : BUMI
Used to be everybody's favorite. Even until now sometime still catch trader's attention by it's CA.
#40
Study Case : BUMIBig Money View
#41
Study Case : BJTM
Big price increase for this year dividend supported by good accumulation by big money. And then major correction by profit taking after dividend expired. Now the price trend is sideways even that smart money continue their accumulation after correction done
#42
Study Case : BJTMBig Money View
#43
Study Case : BKSL
Classic example how big money accumulate the stock for around two months during November and December 2012 before the price jumped up from 190 to 260 only in 2.5 weeks
#44
Study Case : BKSLBig Money View
#45
Study Case : Ciputra Group
Time by time analysis how the stocks from same owner, same sector can have different cycle on price movements and accumulations.
#46
Study Case : Ciputra GroupBig Money View
#47
Study Case : MPPA
Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation by Big Money.
#48
Study Case : MPPABig Money View
#49
Study Case : COWL
Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation by Big Money.
#50
Study Case : COWLBig Money View
Thank You