Sierra Club/Campaign for Common GroundFebruary 18, 2014

By Eric Parfrey(parfrey@sbcgobal.net)

Stockton General Plan Settlement Agreement and Changing Growth Trends in Stockton and the Central

Valley

2

STOCKTON SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT

Sierra Club sues over updated 2035 Stockton General Plan (January, 2008)

AG Jerry Brown begins discussions with City, Club invited to participate

Settlement approved October, 2008

CCG 3

Adopt a Climate Action Plan (CAP) within 2 years (by October, 2010)

The CAP plan to provide growth strategies to meet the overall goals set by AB 32

Monitor Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) as a key indicator of growth and jobs/housing goals.

STOCKTON SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT

CCG 4

Adopt a Climate Action Plan (CAP) within 2 years (by October, 2010)

The CAP plan to provide growth strategies to meet the overall goals set by AB 32

Monitor Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) as a key indicator of growth and jobs/housing goals.

Keep increase in VMT to an annual rate less than the population growth

STOCKTON SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT

CCG 5

CCG 6

CCG 7

8

Adopt “green building” ordinances within one year (by October, 2009)

Prepare a Transit Gap Study that identifies funding for a new Bus Rapid Transit system

Revise the GP within one year to include a goal to build at least 18,400 units of infill housing in downtown and existing city limits (3,000 units in downtown by 2020)

All major development projects approved before the CAP must conform to the new settlement goals

TERMS OF THE SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT(continued)

CCG 9

Progress since the Settlement:

In 2007, 3 large projects approved by old council (Spanos, Grupe, Mariposa) New mayor and council elected (2008) Climate Action Plan committee formed Draft green building ordinance Transit Gap Study completed Layoffs, City Manager, Attorney leave GP amendments with targets delayed

CCG 10

Home values peaked in third Qtr, 2007 60% decline in home value 10,000 foreclosures in Stockton (2010

- 2012) Housing starts down 80 – 90% 17% unemployment rate, now 12% Bankruptcies increase Big drop in Bay Area commuters

buying houses

How life has changed since the Stockton General Plan

was adopted in December 2007

New Home Building Permit Activity

Building Permits Issued2000 1,1632004 2,9452006 1,5072008-2011 approx. 2002012 less than 200

CCG 11

CCG 12

Changing Demographics and Demand in California

Crashing home values in far flung suburbs as gas and commute costs rise

Older, inner city, walkable neighborhoods retain more of their value

Home sizes continue decline, lot sizes shrink Largest growth in next 10 years: baby boomers over

54 and young Latino and Asian residents 20 – 34 years old (Dowell Myers, USC)

The Future in the Central Valley Will Not be Like the Past

Growth projections: economic recovery beginning in 2012, and then slow recovery

Short-term job growth in Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Merced (>2% in 2014)

Strongest job growth in Stockton (3.7%, prisons, Port), weakest in Fresno

No return to high housing growth rates of the early 2000 decade predicted

CCG 13

Earlier Population ProjectionsHave Dropped by 50%

CCG 14

Year 2030 Population Projections Drop by 46%

(San Joaquin County)2010 2020 2030 Growth

DOF (2007) 741.0 965.0 1,206.0 465.0COG (2008) 712.0 886.0 1,117.0 405.0DOF (2013) 686.6 810.8 1,004.1 317.5COG (2013) 685.3 787.9 939.6 254.3

Decrease in 20 year population projections = 46%CCG 15

Change in Stockton Population and Housing Projections

CCG 16

2035 Pop Growth Projected(2010 -- 2035)

Stockton GP (2007) Population 580,000 + 290,000 peopleHousing Needed + 93,500 units

SJCOG (2009)Population 416,400 + 126,400 peopleHousing Needed + 40,800 units

Decrease in Projected Housing: - 52,700 units (- 56%)

Further Decrease in Growth Assumptions for COG’s SCS/RTP

CCG 17

2035 Pop Growth Projected(2010 -- 2035)

Stockton GP (2007) Population 580,000 + 290,000 peopleHousing Needed + 93,500 units

Sustainable Communities (2013)Housing Needed + approx. 33,000 units

Decrease in Projected Housing: - 60,500 units (- 65%)

SJCOG Sustainable Communities Strategy Conceptual Growth Assumptions

How to rebuild existing neighborhoods by energy retrofitting and helping slow foreclosures

How to implement the new climate change /GHG laws in face of depressed economy

How to reinterpret/downsize traditional growth plans to reflect the new demographic reality (more opportunities for infill and downtown)

CCG 19

Not All Doom & Gloom:Big Questions for Stockton

and the Central Valley

GP Amendments to Comply with Settlement Agreement:

Include infill targets (18,400 units in city limits, including 3,000 units in downtown)

Add real incentives for downtown growth (what are they? sewer lines, parking, $$, leadership, and courage?)

Phasing requirement to discourage premature greenfield proposals that we can’t afford (avoid premature annexations!)

Revise General Plan map to meet new lower growth projections by cutting back greenfield development at the fringes of the city

Last Gasp of Hyper Growth

During final development boom leading up to the adoption of the 2035 General Plan in December, 2007, and just afterwards, the previous City Councils approved Specific Plans and development plans for over 25,000 housing units. None of these projects have proceeded to construction.

CCG 21

Too Much Housing Growth Has Already Been Approved

The community development director estimates that the City has already approved through the General Plan and development agreements some 44,000 housing units, including 16,000 units within the current city limits.

CCG 22

No More Annexations Until the City is Ready

During the period when the GPAs are being debated and fine-tuned, the City should avoid encouraging any more development at the fringe of the city, especially growth outside the city limits.

CCG 23

Trim Down the 2035 General Plan Land Use Map

The City should consider redesignation of some of the “Village” lands outside the existing City limits

Reedesignate future planned residential growth back to an agricultural designation, to accommodate lowered population projections and to strengthen the agricultural buffer around the City.

CCG 24

Lands that Should be Considered for Redesignation

Approx. 2,000 acres south of Weston Ranch (Villages L and M)

The Mariposa Lakes project (approx. 3,800 acres southeast of Highway 99)

Lands north of Eight Mile Road Other Villages planned on outlying

agricultural lands.

CCG 25

CCG 26

Approved Projects

Mariposa Lakes Specific Plan (10,200 housing units, developer: Kamilos)

Sanctuary Specific Plan (7,300 units, developer: Grupe);

Delta Cove Specific Plan (1,654 units, developer: Spanos)

CCG 27

CCG 28

Other Approved/Pending Projects

Cannery Park project (1,000 units, Arnaiz) Tidewater Crossing (2,492 units, Arnaiz) Crystal Bay project (1,343 units, Spanos) Orogone Ranch project (1,500 units) Bear Creek East (pending) Bear Creek West Bear Creek South

CCG 29